What Are Dubreil & Lauzon's Chances of Winning the Gold
- Thread starter lutzskate
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This has certainly got to be the widest-open Dance competition - for all spots on the podium - in a very long time!! VERY hard to predict!
I haven't seen enough of the programs to make a real prediction, but based on competition results so far, it would appear that D/L and the 3 D/S's each have almost even odds of winning! Should be a very interesting and exciting competition to watch!
Perhaps performance quality will really matter this time around...
D/L not considered the overall technical best, but they are not without their very strong points, display ever-improving finesse, and generally do pick up the difficulty as the season progresses. If they can hit a peak performance at the right time, they've got a shot. They did show last year that they know how to peak at the right time. And they've maintained their unofficial "2nd favourites" status through the early season since Worlds last year, and the #1 favourites have just gone down to defeat...
D/S Bulgaria were the clear early favourites, but have suddenly just got their butts whipped by TWO other teams!! They have however been known to bounce back in the past from disappointing early and mid-season results, and generally have such strong technical proficiency, so I wouldn't count them out... but you can no longer call them clear favourites, that is for sure...
D/S France have the abilities and the package, and have seemingly just received a breakthrough in terms of acknowledgement from judges. Their chances would seem to have just improved dramatically. Questions though: Will this translate into positive momentum, or was that a peak performance for them? How will their competition nerves hold up?
D/S Russia -are perhaps the fastest-improving top pair - to speak of the legitimacy of their rise - and they're Russian to boot, for those who maintain there's politiking going on. Who knows?
B/A would appear to be off the pace now... but who knows? You can't really count out the Olympic Silver medallists, when the Champs have retired, can you? Perhaps unlikely to win this thing since they at this point so clearly behind, but surely do have a certain dark-horse capacity...
I'm really quite excited for this World's competition! Very intriguing! I hope it's well-judged!
I haven't seen enough of the programs to make a real prediction, but based on competition results so far, it would appear that D/L and the 3 D/S's each have almost even odds of winning! Should be a very interesting and exciting competition to watch!
Perhaps performance quality will really matter this time around...
D/L not considered the overall technical best, but they are not without their very strong points, display ever-improving finesse, and generally do pick up the difficulty as the season progresses. If they can hit a peak performance at the right time, they've got a shot. They did show last year that they know how to peak at the right time. And they've maintained their unofficial "2nd favourites" status through the early season since Worlds last year, and the #1 favourites have just gone down to defeat...
D/S Bulgaria were the clear early favourites, but have suddenly just got their butts whipped by TWO other teams!! They have however been known to bounce back in the past from disappointing early and mid-season results, and generally have such strong technical proficiency, so I wouldn't count them out... but you can no longer call them clear favourites, that is for sure...
D/S France have the abilities and the package, and have seemingly just received a breakthrough in terms of acknowledgement from judges. Their chances would seem to have just improved dramatically. Questions though: Will this translate into positive momentum, or was that a peak performance for them? How will their competition nerves hold up?
D/S Russia -are perhaps the fastest-improving top pair - to speak of the legitimacy of their rise - and they're Russian to boot, for those who maintain there's politiking going on. Who knows?
B/A would appear to be off the pace now... but who knows? You can't really count out the Olympic Silver medallists, when the Champs have retired, can you? Perhaps unlikely to win this thing since they at this point so clearly behind, but surely do have a certain dark-horse capacity...
I'm really quite excited for this World's competition! Very intriguing! I hope it's well-judged!
What is great about D&L is the way they relate to each other when skating. This quality, plus their lifts, plus all the improvements they've made these past two years, should, could bring them another silver medal if not a gold one. But DenStav will be back at worlds with a judge, plus their quality of skating is superior to D&L.
My dream podium based on what I've seen this season should be D&L in first with a close DenStav in second, second because of that sloppy OD they have when D&L's OD is wonderfull, and third the french D&S.
I bet the russians will win it, or finish second to DenStav. Leaving only one spot to grab between the canadians, the french and the americans. Politiks will play a very large role there
My dream podium based on what I've seen this season should be D&L in first with a close DenStav in second, second because of that sloppy OD they have when D&L's OD is wonderfull, and third the french D&S.
I bet the russians will win it, or finish second to DenStav. Leaving only one spot to grab between the canadians, the french and the americans. Politiks will play a very large role there
- Joined
- Aug 9, 2006
.........and?
With the anonymity and randomly selected scores of CoP why should this make a difference?
If the Bulgarian Judge automatically marks DenStav 1st irrespective of how they skate compared to the others, then yes, politiks will be back in a big way, as that will demonstrate the worst kind of nationally biased judging!
D/L stumbled in the FD at both NHK and the GPF. At Canadian Nationals, they were far from their best because of Marie-France's virus.
Given the composition of the judging panel, I would say that D/L winning gold is a pipe dream.
Per ISU Communication 1425, page 6:
These are the judges for the CDs:
AUS, AZE, CAN, CHN, GER, ISR, ITA, POL, RUS, UKR, USA, UZB
These 4 judges will be on the OD and FD panels: BUL, CZE, JPN, LTU.
The other 8 judges will be drawn at random from the CD judges.
There is no French judge, which will hurt the chances of DelShoes and D/L (they have the same French coach). If the CAN judge doesn't get picked for the OD and FD panels, D/L's chances will sink even lower.
OTOH, the Russians are in good shape. There are 4 former SSR judges on the CD panel, and the potential is there for there to be as many as 5 on the OD and FD panels. The Americans are probably going to be up against it if the OD and FD panels have 5 SSRs and no US judge.
The Bulgarians are at least guaranteed a judge on the OD and FD panels.
The list of judges has been published all season. If anyone doesn't think that there has already been intense politicking among the federations, that person is delusional.
Given the composition of the judging panel, I would say that D/L winning gold is a pipe dream.
Per ISU Communication 1425, page 6:
These are the judges for the CDs:
AUS, AZE, CAN, CHN, GER, ISR, ITA, POL, RUS, UKR, USA, UZB
These 4 judges will be on the OD and FD panels: BUL, CZE, JPN, LTU.
The other 8 judges will be drawn at random from the CD judges.
There is no French judge, which will hurt the chances of DelShoes and D/L (they have the same French coach). If the CAN judge doesn't get picked for the OD and FD panels, D/L's chances will sink even lower.
OTOH, the Russians are in good shape. There are 4 former SSR judges on the CD panel, and the potential is there for there to be as many as 5 on the OD and FD panels. The Americans are probably going to be up against it if the OD and FD panels have 5 SSRs and no US judge.
The Bulgarians are at least guaranteed a judge on the OD and FD panels.
The list of judges has been published all season. If anyone doesn't think that there has already been intense politicking among the federations, that person is delusional.
.........and?
With the anonymity and randomly selected scores of CoP why should this make a difference?
If the Bulgarian Judge automatically marks DenStav 1st irrespective of how they skate compared to the others, then yes, politiks will be back in a big way, as that will demonstrate the worst kind of nationally biased judging!
The presence of the judge will be enough to stop some of the other judges to throw Den/S unfairly out of the competition,that is the most important and not the scores of the bulgarian judge, even if they are in this 9, they are still one of the 9 and would not change anything.
Why not,it is they turn to have a judge who ll support them, and the french turn not to have, unfortunately the most powerful supported will be the russians
)
It is a very fair world we live in
Using your way of thinking from one other forum, the worlds is in a month but you've already started complaining about unfair judging?
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ITA with you, looks like you're well inform thats why i want to ask you about the judges in the FD, why do you believe the 4 judges for the OD are for sure in the FD panel? I ve read today very carefully the isu comm. and there is written that if there is a third segment(like the free dance) the judges will be choosen randomly amongst all judges present and available for the WC with a priority of those judges, who have already judged the previous segments..Is this means that for the bulgarians there is a sure judge only in the OD section
So i'm getting confused...who are exactly the "all judges"
How many judges will be in Tokyo waiting to be selected?
- Joined
- Aug 9, 2006
I'm editing slightly so as not to inflame.
Lanadd - you're an extremely sad person who seems to get no pleasure at all in Ice Dance, I wonder why on earth you watch it?
You suck the lifeblood out of being a fan for other people who wish to post on forums and enjoy the sport, it's too depressing, infact I would describe you as being a very bitter person indeed.
chuck: re this list:
I do feel slightly perturbed that in the ISU's attempts to spread the word about Skating all over the world, I wonder exactly how much expertise a Judge from Australia has to assess the merits of the CDs, when that country has never had a high level couple or coaches. However, I'm aware this will sound patronizing, and I'm sure the relevant person has passed all the exams.
Lanadd - you're an extremely sad person who seems to get no pleasure at all in Ice Dance, I wonder why on earth you watch it?
You suck the lifeblood out of being a fan for other people who wish to post on forums and enjoy the sport, it's too depressing, infact I would describe you as being a very bitter person indeed.
chuck: re this list:
I do feel slightly perturbed that in the ISU's attempts to spread the word about Skating all over the world, I wonder exactly how much expertise a Judge from Australia has to assess the merits of the CDs, when that country has never had a high level couple or coaches. However, I'm aware this will sound patronizing, and I'm sure the relevant person has passed all the exams.
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- Joined
- Oct 27, 2004
What is the Compulsory Dance at Worlds?
Ooo i am getting sick from this already thats why i ll say that your favorites are the greatest and nobody else....just because i don't want to be insulted from you anymore.... And as you made me an psycologycal profile i have an advise for you.. people have different opinions and are not obligated to agree with yours.....End of discussion
- Joined
- Aug 9, 2006
No! I thought you gave a pretty good assessment of it, so there's no need to add anything, you've covered it all in your first post. :agree:
Really excited about this Worlds, the quality of dancing at Euros was fab!
And I'm sure Worlds will be equally, actually not just the podium places, but lower down the top 10 too. 
I think all Ice Dance Fans should celebrate not knowing who will win, and if it's a new era of whoever skates best on the day, then Amen to that!!
There is not one outstanding couple in the world today, each has their merits, as you described, that's what makes it so interesting. :yes:
- Joined
- Oct 29, 2005
The Compulsory Dance for Worlds will be drawn at Junior Worlds, but it's either going to be Rhumba or Westminster Waltz as the Golden Waltz was already used at Europeans and Four Continents.
I hope it will be Rhumba, because one can only take a certain amount of Waltzes during a season
- Joined
- Aug 9, 2006
I do too, cos the I love the Rhumba CD tunes, they're some of my favourites!! :agree:
Even though it's not really a Ballroom type Rhumba, being much faster paced, and mostly in Kilian, side by side, hold, I love it cos it exemplifies all that is the epitome of Ice Dance, good edges and flow, lots of matching free leg positions, and excellent timing - all essential for this Dance.
Even though it's not really a Ballroom type Rhumba, being much faster paced, and mostly in Kilian, side by side, hold, I love it cos it exemplifies all that is the epitome of Ice Dance, good edges and flow, lots of matching free leg positions, and excellent timing - all essential for this Dance.
IMO the Russians should not be amongst the top teams vying for gold this season, but the politicking to hoist a Russian pair up to the podium no matter what has already been evident this season and they will be in there.
I'd like to think Dub/Lauz have a really good shot at gold — they have a gorgeous OD and FD — but I'm not sure that I don't expect behind the scenes dealmaking to decide this contest more than the actual skating.
I would have said Denk/ Stav were the almost prohibitive favorites, but given the results at Euros the field really does look wide open.
Del/ Schoen are undoubtedly a great team with impressive skills, but I have to say I will be disappointed if this particular FD of theirs wins.
The Americans, with a new FD, are a total wildcard at this point. We'll see a little clearer after Four Continents where they will skate against Dub/Lauz, but as we've seen in previous years GPFs the results of competitions leading up to worlds don't necessarily give you an idea of who is favoured to win worlds. I compare worlds in dance to the Emmys or the Oscars....so staid and afraid to take a chance on something new that often almost every category is a lifetime achievement award, rather than one for a particular performance.
I'd like to think Dub/Lauz have a really good shot at gold — they have a gorgeous OD and FD — but I'm not sure that I don't expect behind the scenes dealmaking to decide this contest more than the actual skating.
I would have said Denk/ Stav were the almost prohibitive favorites, but given the results at Euros the field really does look wide open.
Del/ Schoen are undoubtedly a great team with impressive skills, but I have to say I will be disappointed if this particular FD of theirs wins.
The Americans, with a new FD, are a total wildcard at this point. We'll see a little clearer after Four Continents where they will skate against Dub/Lauz, but as we've seen in previous years GPFs the results of competitions leading up to worlds don't necessarily give you an idea of who is favoured to win worlds. I compare worlds in dance to the Emmys or the Oscars....so staid and afraid to take a chance on something new that often almost every category is a lifetime achievement award, rather than one for a particular performance.
- Joined
- Aug 9, 2006
Perhaps in future people could flag their posts either *politics* or *skating*, then we could choose not to bother reading. :scowl:
Talking about the merits of FDs, I happened to watch the download of B&A's CoC debut of their original FD this season, and after watching the European FDs from Warsaw, what struck me most was it was seriously lacking in technical content, and quite bare at some points. Had they kept it, it was barely worthy of a top 10 placement at Worlds with that amount of content.
Talking about the merits of FDs, I happened to watch the download of B&A's CoC debut of their original FD this season, and after watching the European FDs from Warsaw, what struck me most was it was seriously lacking in technical content, and quite bare at some points. Had they kept it, it was barely worthy of a top 10 placement at Worlds with that amount of content.
LOL. I lOVE the way you put that, but laughing aside, I agree that the deals have already been made at this point and a winner has already been predetermined at Worlds. Really won't matter what happens on the ice (as long as the favorites don't goof up and fall).
During the telecast of the Europeans on ESPN last weekend, Suzie Wynne said she thought that the Bulgarians were being held down to set up the Russians for a win at the World Championships. She said that the Bulgarians had a far more difficult free-dance and pointed out the places in the Russian's free-dance where they are just gliding on two feet (and waving their arms around to cover this). Suzie said that she thought the Bulgarians were judged unfairly at Europeans as part of some deal already made with regard to the World Championships. I would have to agree with her.
Not only Suzie...thinks that...but it was a big mistake that you shared her opinion here because some people here will make her a very bad psychological profile for what she've said.:yes:
A friend of mine was at the EC and she was told from competitors and some journalists that the world tittle is already reserved(but not for the russians,french or the bulgarians)...I think you can guess now for who. That's why there is not much sense to discuss the actual dances, although we've did that already earlier in the season...If it is really so, we can just watch the WC like an exibition and don't pay attention to the judging(the same thing i did in the FD section of the EC and wow it was a pure pleasure)
My question is, "how did they do that?" Especially, considering how much slower and weaker they are with footwork compared to Denkova & Staviski and Belbin & Agosto.
It seemed that they were receiving one of those "Lifetime Achievement Awards" that the Ice Dance Academy like to hand out, as well as a message from the judges that it's time to move on. They did not get the hint, so I think they will be dropping in the rankings.
