2018-19 Russian Ladies' figure skating

[sweetice]

They will not dump her for Samodurova, but I am afraid that they can dump her for Zhenya.
If the choice will be between Liza and Sonia, Liza will be the chosen, and rightfully so. But if the choice will be between Liza and Zhenya, I'm not so sure.

Also, I am not convinced about the chances at worlds.
Zhenya has same SB as Sonia at this point, but has been steadily regressing. Also, Worlds will be in Japan.
My guess is that medals will be disputed between Zagitova and Tuktamysheva and Kihira, Miyahara and maybe Sakamoto.

How the choice may become between Liza and Evgenia, leaving also Samodurova out of the question ?

We are not in the 2020, with the 4A also in battle for a senior spot.

Worlds ? Oh, come on... Evgenia is loved in Japan. There still three months and more chances to see Evgenia retrieve a part of herself, than see Samodurova grow another 10-15 points.
On the third choice, it's a bet in any case, regardless of who the fed will choose.

As i said, if you look only at the season you can't discuss Liza's presence, and you can't really add someone else on the debate, like Tarusina, Sotskova and Konstantinova, putting Liza vs Evgenia. Results just talk for them-self.

The RusFed need only to think about if give to Evgenia a pass or not. It's actually the only doubt.

 

[Metis]

How the choice may become between Liza and Evgenia, leaving also Samodurova out of the question ?

Not sure if you were asking rhetorically or not, but I think the issue is basically this: Medvedeva was likely to make the team even without a perfect showing at nationals/loss to Samudorova as the coaches’ choice, but with Elizaveta sidelined with illness, it’s safe to assume that Elizaveta will be the one to make the team that way. Which means Medvedeva now needs to be one of the top finishers at Nationals to earn a spot on the team... or that Elizaveta gets thrown off so that Medvedeva can be put on, along with the top two finishers.

I think Medvedeva’s odds of making the team just went substantially down assuming RSF gives the bye to Elizaveta, as I’m sure she’s doing the same calculation we are right now and that’s suddenly a lot more pressure to do well — not just well, but to be one of the top two Euros and World eligible ladies.

 

[evhambeey]

I think at this point both Medvedeva and Radionova have this big IF over their heads, or at least this season(Radi a bit longer) bc both, IF they perform clean and at their best have a potential and quite a good shot at the team, the thing is it's IF. So it's funny to me that with Medvedeva this if is always getting brought up bc IF she performs at her best she's good and I agree. Usually the same people though, have the attitude with Radi that this IF basically means she isn't able to. It's funny if you think about it.

Agreed. Medal possiblity is the most important thing. And these IFs can not be ignored.

 

[vesperalvioletta]

I can't see a scenario where RusFed would even have to decide between Liza and Zhenya. Who would have a lock on that second spot to force that to happen? Samodurova? I love Sonya, but I think not. For me, the top two spots are locks for Alina and Liza, and then TBD for the third. I can see them going either way between Zhenya and Sonya, but honestly, I'd give Sonya the edge. I actually kind of agree with TSL on this one - if something catastrophic were to happen and Alina and Liza both bombed, then I'd trust Sonya more to deliver clean performances to come in and make sure those three spots were secure. Zhenya could make enormous progress in that time, but right now, she's very hit or miss.

 

[Fluture]

I‘d say unless something dramatic happens at Nationals and Zhenya somehow finds back to her old mental strength, it will be Alina and Sofia for Worlds with Liza the one getting the bye.

Assuming Zhenya doesn‘t make Worlds, she can still go to Winter Universiade this year, right?

 

[fabienne1996]

it will either be alina liza and zhenya or alina liza and Sofia. Liza is still better than Sofia so between them I would definitely say liza. I think even if alina bombs at nationals she would be in the team. I do hope that zhenya can make it. She can if she is clean in both sp and fs

Not sure if you were asking rhetorically or not, but I think the issue is basically this: Medvedeva was likely to make the team even without a perfect showing at nationals/loss to Samudorova as the coaches’ choice, but with Elizaveta sidelined with illness, it’s safe to assume that Elizaveta will be the one to make the team that way. Which means Medvedeva now needs to be one of the top finishers at Nationals to earn a spot on the team... or that Elizaveta gets thrown off so that Medvedeva can be put on, along with the top two finishers.

I think Medvedeva’s odds of making the team just went substantially down assuming RSF gives the bye to Elizaveta, as I’m sure she’s doing the same calculation we are right now and that’s suddenly a lot more pressure to do well — not just well, but to be one of the top two Euros and World eligible ladies.

 

[Globetrotter]

I think Liza will be the one added by Coaches' council to the team. So they will send the top two senior finishers regardless of who it is

Article about Liza: Liza is out: https://tass.ru/sport/5904869
She has pneumonia and will be in the hospital for 2 weeks

Oh crap. Just hope she has a speedy recovery. I was so rooting to see the empress deliver a knockout 3A performance at RusNats. She deserves a shot at Worlds just based on her form and body of work prior to this bout of pneumonia which is no joke.

 

[madison]

Oh, nooo Liza, speedy recovery. I am so sorry for her, she had such a good season up now. I hope she will be in the Team even though she will not participate in the Russian Nationals.

 

[sweetice]

Not sure if you were asking rhetorically or not, but I think the issue is basically this: Medvedeva was likely to make the team even without a perfect showing at nationals/loss to Samudorova as the coaches’ choice, but with Elizaveta sidelined with illness, it’s safe to assume that Elizaveta will be the one to make the team that way. Which means Medvedeva now needs to be one of the top finishers at Nationals to earn a spot on the team... or that Elizaveta gets thrown off so that Medvedeva can be put on, along with the top two finishers.

I think Medvedeva’s odds of making the team just went substantially down assuming RSF gives the bye to Elizaveta, as I’m sure she’s doing the same calculation we are right now and that’s suddenly a lot more pressure to do well — not just well, but to be one of the top two Euros and World eligible ladies.

I get what you mean, but they still can safely place Liza on the list, with one between Sofia or Evgenia as first substitute, and then see next month if Liza is healthy or not.

Nationals results aren't mandatory, the US hasn't even take their men silver medalist to the olympics, why bother that much ?

Also, there's chances to see a podium split between Zagitova and two juniors. Those two senior top finisher, aside Alina, may even be 5th-6th, if Evgenia don't trow out a great performance.

 

[Globetrotter]

Because if judges overcores CSKA skaters for one clean program (giving a pass to many underrotations) as they usually do, then Sotskova or Tsurskaya will take the spots of other maybe more deserving skaters who have been skating better all season (like Nugumanova, Guliakova, Tarakanova,...). No senior GPs also means less funding for those other coaches, less chances to merge, while for Russia keep showing weak skaters mean less medals and higher chances to lose the three spots at World.

We all know some CSKA skaters can be really good, but since they joined that group most of them regressed, showing up clearly undertrained with issues everywhere from jumps, spins, steps sequence, lack of stamina,... We know Buyanova's mindset is soo 6.0 era ("who cares about level or underrotations if the elements are still nice to watch?"), so i don't see them addressing all these issues, if results don't come, they will say "the skater is not motivated enough", they will discard him/her and go shopping finding someone else.

It seems fishy that suddenly all their skaters are injured: that's totally possible but still if that is true then there is something wrong with their training, or otherwise it's just an excuse to hide the fact they are unprepared.

The only reason no one from the Federation is concerned right now about that is because they can still rely on Eteri for winning medals, but they can have bad days too (especially when you do difficult elements like quads)

Then based on your train of thought, the real problem does not lie with CSKA and their skaters per se. It is the deplorable state of Russian judging and your implied suggestion of CSKA politicking benefiting their skaters over others. The only definitive thing though is that the skaters have gotten to skate and win at Nats to qualify.

 

[Metis]

I get what you mean, but they still can safely place Liza on the list, with one between Sofia or Evgenia as first substitute, and then see next month if Liza is healthy or not.

Nationals results aren't mandatory, the US hasn't even take their men silver medalist to the olympics, why bother that much ?

Also, there's chances to see a podium split between Zagitova and two juniors. Those two senior top finisher, aside Alina, may even be 5th-6th, if Evgenia don't trow out a great performance.

I thought RSF rules were the top two age eligible finishers were automatically on the team, and one spot was open for politicking/not dependent on placement at Nationals? (Top two in terms of the two highest finishers, not literally first and second. So if Zagitova is first and Trusova is second, it’d be Zagitova and then the highest placing age-eligible senior, even if the senior scores lower than multiple juniors.) In which case Liza would take the “bye” slot and the top two finishers would automatically make the team.

Look, it’s Nationals. The scores will be whatever a given federation wants — any federation, not just Russia. But if I were Mishin and Sofia, I’d be pretty angry if I delivered two clean programmes but Medvedeva had an uncalled Lutz edge, URs, etc., and was propped up on PCS to place ahead.

As for the US not sending its second place finishers: I believe USFSA doesn’t mandate that the top finishers be given berths on the 4CC and Worlds team. “Body of work” can always be used to select the team the federation wants if nationals doesn’t order the potential candidates as expected.

 

[Fluture]

The lutz edge might not be called but the lutz isn‘t the biggest problem, imo. It wasn‘t called in the past either. But if Zhenya falls or again messes up the combo in the SP, she will have trouble beating Sofia even with inflated scores. I truly hope she does her best but... a performance like she had at IdF can’t even be saved by gigantic PCS. I just hope she finishes at least in 6th place (with the three juniors + Alina + Sofia but without Liza there she can make it, assuming she places only behind them) so that she is on the National team next year and gets funding.

But whoever doesn‘t make the Worlds/European team will be sent to the Winter Universiade, won‘t they? It‘s even in Russia this year, I believe. And Evgenia hasn‘t got a medal from the Universiade yet. I think it could be good for her to get some more competitive experience and earn some money, assuming she doesn‘t make the Worlds team which at this point admittedly doesn‘t look too well with Liza being out and getting the bye and Sofia showing such consistent results this season and likely finishing above her. And it won‘t be so much pressure either. I‘m not even sure what I want anymore. I‘m biased, I want Evgenia at Worlds more than anyone else. But if she isn‘t ready... I‘d rather have her not go than risk finishing the season on a disappointing note.

 

[LenaRadiFan]

The lutz edge might not be called but the lutz isn‘t the biggest problem, imo. It wasn‘t called in the past either. But if Zhenya falls or again messes up the combo in the SP, she will have trouble beating Sofia even with inflated scores. I truly hope she does her best but... a performance like she had at IdF can’t even be saved by gigantic PCS. I just hope she finishes at least in 6th place (with the three juniors + Alina + Sofia but without Liza there she can make it, assuming she places only behind them) so that she is on the National team next year and gets funding.

But whoever doesn‘t make the Worlds/European team will be sent to the Winter Universiade, won‘t they? It‘s even in Russia this year, I believe. And Evgenia hasn‘t got a medal from the Universiade yet. I think it could be good for her to get some more competitive experience and earn some money, assuming she doesn‘t make the Worlds team which at this point admittedly doesn‘t look too well with Liza being out and getting the bye and Sofia showing such consistent results this season and likely finishing above her. And it won‘t be so much pressure either. I‘m not even sure what I want anymore. I‘m biased, I want Evgenia at Worlds more than anyone else. But if she isn‘t ready... I‘d rather have her not go than risk finishing the season on a disappointing note.

The winter universade is only for university students, and I thought Evgenia doesn'r go to university?

 

[Fluture]

The winter universade is only for university students, and I thought Evgenia doesn'r go to university?

I thought she was... but maybe it‘s a different situation now that she‘s in Canada ? Hm...

 

[DenissVFan]

It could be between Liza and Zhenya if Sofia skates like she did at the GPF and maybe podiums and Zhenya skates like at the IdF and she's below Sofia (clean Zhenya or even Zhenya with one mistake will most likely win over Sofia unless something happens to her PCS). Then RusFed may decide that Sofia has done enough to earn her spot, which would leave us with one more spot awarded by the council. I believe that Liza has earned that third spot this season.

However, Zhenya may very well avoid that by placing second (or maybe even first? who knows) among the seniors. This is within her reach as she has a better scoring potential than Sofia. In this case the third spot would be between Sofia and Liza and would 99% go to Liza.

We're focusing on these four skaters (Alina, Elizaveta, Evgenia and Sofia) but Stanislava, Anna T. or one of Anastasia G.s on their best day may even be the second senior. They would be the most likely to be passed over (except Stanislava).

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The winter universade is only for university students, and I thought Evgenia doesn'r go to university?

This is the perfect competition for Maria

 

[moriel]

How the choice may become between Liza and Evgenia, leaving also Samodurova out of the question ?

Because Samodurova will never be the main option.
If the top 2 seniors at rusnats are Alina and Zhenya, the fed choices are pretty obvious - they will send Liza if she can recover in time. There is no choice between Liza / other russian seniors, because Liza is clear Russian #2, GPF medalist, which means she also has potential to medal at Worlds, since most of the main competitors were at the GPF also. This is fair, even though there is a coaches decision in the middle, since Liza outskated Sonia this season
If the top 2 seniors at rusnats are Alina and someone else (Samodurova, Konstantinova, etc), then the choice becomes between who will be the coaches decision, Zhenya or Liza. One of them will be left out.

The RusFed need only to think about if give to Evgenia a pass or not. It's actually the only doubt.

Nope. Since Liza is skipping nationals, RusFed also needs to think if give Liza the pass or not.

Worlds ? Oh, come on... Evgenia is loved in Japan. There still three months and more chances to see Evgenia retrieve a part of herself, than see Samodurova grow another 10-15 points.
On the third choice, it's a bet in any case, regardless of who the fed will choose.

I really don't see Evgenia being propped to go ahead of japanese girls at worlds at japan. And japan is willing to prop their own this year, it is quite clear.
There will be 3 japanese skaters competing for medals at worlds, and all 3 stronger than Zhenya currently is. 3 months is not at all enough time to recover her former self at this point - her jumps are a mess compared to what they were, her programs are generic and she does not seem to feel them at all. For next season? Why not. 3 months - very debatable if she can fix her jumps and improve her presentation by them, maybe only if she goes back to her old programs, which will not happen.

 

[LenaRadiFan]

It could be between Liza and Zhenya if Sofia skates like she did at the GPF and maybe podiums and Zhenya skates like at the IdF and she's below Sofia (clean Zhenya or even Zhenya with one mistake will most likely win over Sofia unless something happens to her PCS). Then RusFed may decide that Sofia has done enough to earn her spot, which would leave us with one more spot awarded by the council. I believe that Liza has earned that third spot this season.

However, Zhenya may very well avoid that by placing second (or maybe even first? who knows) among the seniors. This is within her reach as she has a better scoring potential than Sofia. In this case the third spot would be between Sofia and Liza and would 99% go to Liza.

We're focusing on these four skaters (Alina, Elizaveta, Evgenia and Sofia) but Stanislava, Anna T. or one of Anastasia G.s on their best day may even be the second senior. They would be the most likely to be passed over (except Stanislava).

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This is the perfect competition for Maria

It is! I hope she can go, but who decides that? Rusfed or the Universade organisers?

 

[Osmond4gold]

They can't dump her for Samodurova, even Mishin can't allow that.

Liza's scores were consistently over 200, all the season, from the Lombardia Trophy to the GPF. Even Zagitova look way more unstable then her. Unless something badly happen at nationals, it's all a question about if they want to give Evgenia credit regardless of results or not, as Samodurova is growing step by step, while Evgenia's results are regressing.

To me, if they want more chances to be on the podium at worlds, they still need to push Evgenia as their third bet, at least this season.

Alina's scores are coming down, she has won only 1 of the past 3 majors, reputation scoring is started to erode and jumps are facing the reality of a growth spurt. Given Liza's new found confidence and her natural jumping ability, I would not be surprised to see Liza and others, surpass Alina moving forward.

 

[vesperalvioletta]

The winter universade is only for university students, and I thought Evgenia doesn'r go to university?

It is just for university students, and I think there's an age cap on the upper end as well, but don't quote me on that. I didn't think Evgenia was still a student, but I could be wrong.

 

[Fluture]

Scores are coming down, she has won only 1 major of the past 3, reputation scoring is started to erode and jumps are facing the reality of a growth spurt. Given Liza's new found confidence and her natural jumping ability, I would not be surprised to see Liza surpass Alina at nationals.

Liza has pneumonia and won‘t be at Nationals. So, if Liza Nugumanova doesn‘t suddenly find her inner natural jumping ability and a 3A in the next two weeks, no Liza will be ahead of Alina at Nationals. And I‘m 100% sure about that.