I think it's also interesting how we funnel ladies so quickly through junior to senior, but the guys stay on junior for what seems like forever. Torgashev and Hiwatashi have been on the JGP forever, heck even Nathan stayed junior for a good amount of time (even past the point where these guys could have just gone senior). I find it not beneficial when people immediately are like "yup let's get her on senior after a Nationals!" I believe that Starr could have benefited from one more year in juniors for development purposes.
2018-19 U.S. Ladies' figure skating
- Thread starter Spirals for Miles
- Start date
I think it's also interesting how we funnel ladies so quickly through junior to senior, but the guys stay on junior for what seems like forever. Torgashev and Hiwatashi have been on the JGP forever, heck even Nathan stayed junior for a good amount of time (even past the point where these guys could have just gone senior). I find it not beneficial when people immediately are like "yup let's get her on senior after a Nationals!" I believe that Starr could have benefited from one more year in juniors for development purposes.
That will likely depend on the luck of the draw with GP assignments. Let's look at Bradie's main opposition next year, assuming USFS doesn't put her and Mariah at the same GP, although the position of the top four ladies on this list are pretty variable.
1. Rika Kihira
2. Alena Kostornaia
3. Alexandra Trusova
4. Anna Shcherbakova
5. Alina Zagitova
6. Kaori Sakomoto
7. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva (if she doesn't retire)
8. Sofia Samodurova
9. Evgenia Medvedeva
10. Satoko Miyahara
11. Gabrielle Daleman
12. Kaetlyn Osmond
(The last two are unknowns)
Currently, Bradie needs extra tech content to compete with the first four ladies on the list. She can still win against them if they make mistakes, but then her destiny isn't in her own hands. If she skates cleanly, her chances against skaters from 5 down are decent. Bradie might be able to avoid one of the first four in one GP, but probably not the second. Her odds of placing in the top two of a GP are decent if she avoids the first four, and a little dicey otherwise. I'd imagine, with this sort of ladies' field, two silvers would be the minimum required to make GPF.
Granted, she likely can't afford more than a single mistake or two in both programs in each competition AND she needs the right field. If she's unfortunate enough to have an NHK 2018-like field and faces Rika and Sasha, for instance, it might look ugly.
Next season is going to be the most ridiculously packed ladies' field EVER.
- Joined
- Mar 4, 2018
Well if she avoids Roostelcom Cup and gets Skate America or Skate Canada then her odds are probably on the better side.
The one thing we should know for sure from the past 4 seasons is while the Russian field might be overall strong the individual skaters can implode at any point in the season. Remember when Pogorilya was actually ranked #1 on the ISU list then imploded at Worlds? Adelina disappeared. As did Yulia. Elizaveta came and then went and then came again and left again. Sotskova, Radionova all gone now it seems. Medvedeva is still hanging on while Alina is on her way down. All wonderful skaters but apart had to predict when they aren't on the top of their game. And hard to predict when the end of their top will come.
The one thing we should know for sure from the past 4 seasons is while the Russian field might be overall strong the individual skaters can implode at any point in the season. Remember when Pogorilya was actually ranked #1 on the ISU list then imploded at Worlds? Adelina disappeared. As did Yulia. Elizaveta came and then went and then came again and left again. Sotskova, Radionova all gone now it seems. Medvedeva is still hanging on while Alina is on her way down. All wonderful skaters but apart had to predict when they aren't on the top of their game. And hard to predict when the end of their top will come.
It's true. I was really alarmed how many skaters declined this year. Skaters like Daria and Polina T was completely different from last season. Gabby I going through her own issues. Wakaba was injured. Marin lost her jumps and confidence. In June I thought, there was no way Bradie got a medal at GPF because the field was stacked. But she did. I want to see how well Bradie does at Worlds first. If she gets a seeded position, USFS can try to make certain she has less competition.
- Joined
- Oct 14, 2018
Can someone please explain Alysa’s technique? Everyone keeps saying that she does not have height or distance, but seeing her live, she surprisingly has good distance and height. Proportionate to her body size, the height and distance was good. Apart from that, her axel technique is weird though because Mao, Elizaveta, and Rika push their elbows back and go into their jump with a lot of speed. She’s very young so all of this might not even matter, but I feel like her only troubles are the Salchow and Axel.
I think 'proportionate to her body size' is key here. People are expecting huge jumps from someone 4'7 and 13 years old.
- Joined
- Nov 30, 2016
I don't think so. Based on my calculations, she'll fall well out of the top 24 in WS. She has zero points from this season, all the 2016-17 points will be dropped and the 2017-18 points will be at 70%.
- Joined
- Jan 28, 2013
Sadly, I have to disagree. She'll get 2. She has a vocal fan base, skates crowd-pleasing programs, and is absolutely a non-threat. She'll get a Skate Canada invite, for sure. I'm betting another. Maybe NHK.
Doesns't she at least have the right to invoke the injury clause and get an automatic GP assignment the way Gracie did? And if she performs well at the summer comps or Champs Camp get SkAm (unless someone else like Gracie performs better)?
- Joined
- Oct 30, 2012
I think with the promising young skaters Ting and Hanna rising up (+ Alysa), skaters like Polina, Karen, Ashley or Mirai (did she officially retire?) have less motivation to stage a serious comeback. Courtney is 23 and Mariah is 22. Not sure if they will stay around until 2022.
- Joined
- Oct 30, 2012
At least her jumps don't look "Satoko" small (small even to the skater's proportion.) I hope she will grow a couple of inches more in the next few years, which will help the perception of her extension.
I meant I’m not sure where she would ‘rank’ relative to the other ladies.
Of course she can come back and compete when she recovers from her injury.
Polina said she will be back next season?
Surely she will grow at least a few more inches - unlikely she will stay this little forever.
I was around her height at 13 and seriously felt like I would never grow! And now I’m like 10 inches taller
I doubt it. She was eighth this year. Her SB isn’t that high. I just don’t see USFS sticking their neck out again. I think she might get just one, but she’s probably going to settle for being an alternate. Megan may get an spot. But Starr, Courtney, and Amber are going to simple have to take their chances and hope someone picks them.
The comeback skater clause. It will allow her to use her previous SB to get on the GP. I serious hope she gets past her injury and focuses on being at her best.
- Joined
- Jan 28, 2013
I was referring to Starr picking up a host selection - as injuries wear on throughout the season, they'll be looking for lower tier skaters. As I said, she is popular and has crowd-pleasing programs. And she won't be a threat to local talent.
This may just be a rambly post right now, I'm just posting my general thoughts of American ladies right now.
- I read the article and now have a positive opinion of Vincent. I think he's a good fit for her, maybe not the best, but definitely a coach who can help Gracie. Also, her pre-2016 Worlds is now a LOT worse than I thought. I had no idea that even way before that she was having these struggles.
- I hope Mariah and Bradie get three spots at Worlds. I don't see it being a good shot, but I have more faith in Bradie+Mariah this year then Bradie+Mirai+Mariah. (I generally think that Bradie and Mariah have improved leaps and bounds this year, also Kaetlyn won't be there and Carolina probably won't be there, and if she is I can't imagine her being in tip-top shape.) However, if EVERY single person goes clean, I can't see Mariah+Bradie at best being higher than 7th and 8th, which just isn't enough. (This is also without Gabrielle, assuming she goes clean who knows where she ends up now? I assume though that best-case scenario for the US if everyone goes clean including Gabrielle is that she could end up behind Bradie but in front of Mariah...I can see Bradie beating Gabrielle if they both go clean but I can't see Mariah doing it.) So, I think in order for the US to grab 3 spots it will take at least two of the Russians/Japanese/Gabrielle to have major mistakes and Bradie+Mariah being super clean. And IMO this is best case scenario, who knows what Tursynbaeva+Eun-Soo+Loena could do because none of them have gone clean at a GP/major competition this season. (I also can see Lindfors posing potential problems as well now after what we saw at Europeans.)
- I can't see Polina/Mirai/Karen now actually being back at the stage that they want to be if they come back next season (that is at the very least making 4CC) now with Hanna being senior eligible next season and Ting probably being a full-fledged senior next season and Bradie and Mariah having massively improved over the past few seasons and showing that they are rightfully the top 2 senior skaters as of right now. However, I also wouldn't count them out just because of Ting+Alysa+Hanna. I mean, after all we've all seen countless skaters like Caroline Zhang, Tyler Pierce, Amber Glenn, Courtney Hicks, Agnes Zawadzki, etc. either effectively fizzle out once they turned senior or never really live up to their potential.
- I DO hope that Hanna maybe tries to go senior next year as I believe she can (also especially if we get 3 spots next year. Imagine if Bradie+Mariah+Ting+Hanna were all seniors next year fighting for a Worlds spot next year and only one of them getting left out instead of two? I actually think we'd have a good chance of getting/keepign three spots+from the short-lived rivalry that Ashley, Gracie, and Polina had they all pushed each other to be better and I think that could happen too if the 4 of them were all fighting as seniors.) Alas, though, I don't see Hanna turning senior happening regardless if she can because American figure skating culture likes to keep 15-16 year olds as juniors...but if we have someone who CAN be competitive internationally as a senior who is 15-16 why not go for it? Russia and Japan do that and we need to start doing it as well. (However one of the reasons we may not have done this is because we haven't had a lot of recent 15-16 year olds who are talented...last one I remember doing this is Polina?)
- I don't know how GP selection works, so I just know that I'm definitely over-shooting how many people/which ones can get GP spots next season, but my very-hopeful-want-this-to-happen guestimate would be (also assuming that Hanna goes senior):
Bradie+Mariah+Ting+Hanna getting 2.
Megan+Amber+Starr+Emmy+Ashley Lin+Pooja getting 1.
Assuming Polina, Karen, AND Mirai all come back, one of Courtney/Gracie/Polina/Karen/Mirai/Gabriella (will she even compete next year now with Harvard?) getting the host pick, whichever one shows that they're in best shape. (The rest hopefully getting at least one Challenger slot if they show that they're in decent form.)
Obviously this is super unrealistic as I'm pretty sure Hanna at best would get one and Pooja+Ashley+Emmy+Amber would not get one. But, if I could truly get the GP selection I wanted, that's how I would do it.
- I read the article and now have a positive opinion of Vincent. I think he's a good fit for her, maybe not the best, but definitely a coach who can help Gracie. Also, her pre-2016 Worlds is now a LOT worse than I thought. I had no idea that even way before that she was having these struggles.
- I hope Mariah and Bradie get three spots at Worlds. I don't see it being a good shot, but I have more faith in Bradie+Mariah this year then Bradie+Mirai+Mariah. (I generally think that Bradie and Mariah have improved leaps and bounds this year, also Kaetlyn won't be there and Carolina probably won't be there, and if she is I can't imagine her being in tip-top shape.) However, if EVERY single person goes clean, I can't see Mariah+Bradie at best being higher than 7th and 8th, which just isn't enough. (This is also without Gabrielle, assuming she goes clean who knows where she ends up now? I assume though that best-case scenario for the US if everyone goes clean including Gabrielle is that she could end up behind Bradie but in front of Mariah...I can see Bradie beating Gabrielle if they both go clean but I can't see Mariah doing it.) So, I think in order for the US to grab 3 spots it will take at least two of the Russians/Japanese/Gabrielle to have major mistakes and Bradie+Mariah being super clean. And IMO this is best case scenario, who knows what Tursynbaeva+Eun-Soo+Loena could do because none of them have gone clean at a GP/major competition this season. (I also can see Lindfors posing potential problems as well now after what we saw at Europeans.)
- I can't see Polina/Mirai/Karen now actually being back at the stage that they want to be if they come back next season (that is at the very least making 4CC) now with Hanna being senior eligible next season and Ting probably being a full-fledged senior next season and Bradie and Mariah having massively improved over the past few seasons and showing that they are rightfully the top 2 senior skaters as of right now. However, I also wouldn't count them out just because of Ting+Alysa+Hanna. I mean, after all we've all seen countless skaters like Caroline Zhang, Tyler Pierce, Amber Glenn, Courtney Hicks, Agnes Zawadzki, etc. either effectively fizzle out once they turned senior or never really live up to their potential.
- I DO hope that Hanna maybe tries to go senior next year as I believe she can (also especially if we get 3 spots next year. Imagine if Bradie+Mariah+Ting+Hanna were all seniors next year fighting for a Worlds spot next year and only one of them getting left out instead of two? I actually think we'd have a good chance of getting/keepign three spots+from the short-lived rivalry that Ashley, Gracie, and Polina had they all pushed each other to be better and I think that could happen too if the 4 of them were all fighting as seniors.) Alas, though, I don't see Hanna turning senior happening regardless if she can because American figure skating culture likes to keep 15-16 year olds as juniors...but if we have someone who CAN be competitive internationally as a senior who is 15-16 why not go for it? Russia and Japan do that and we need to start doing it as well. (However one of the reasons we may not have done this is because we haven't had a lot of recent 15-16 year olds who are talented...last one I remember doing this is Polina?)
- I don't know how GP selection works, so I just know that I'm definitely over-shooting how many people/which ones can get GP spots next season, but my very-hopeful-want-this-to-happen guestimate would be (also assuming that Hanna goes senior):
Bradie+Mariah+Ting+Hanna getting 2.
Megan+Amber+Starr+Emmy+Ashley Lin+Pooja getting 1.
Assuming Polina, Karen, AND Mirai all come back, one of Courtney/Gracie/Polina/Karen/Mirai/Gabriella (will she even compete next year now with Harvard?) getting the host pick, whichever one shows that they're in best shape. (The rest hopefully getting at least one Challenger slot if they show that they're in decent form.)
Obviously this is super unrealistic as I'm pretty sure Hanna at best would get one and Pooja+Ashley+Emmy+Amber would not get one. But, if I could truly get the GP selection I wanted, that's how I would do it.
That blew up in Skate Canada’s face. She beat all their ladies. Maybe now that Alaine seems to be back on track maybe. But the other feds have their own habits. CoC prefers Asian entries, so Yelim, Yi Christy, and Eunsoo will be higher on their list. They also have little domestic competition. Alothoug, the plane fare is still as expensive since they are all US based this year.
CoR prefers European entries. They’ll take US entries is they have to, but if they need an alternate, I expect a European replacement. Same as IdF. I doubt anyone cares who she is in any of those places. NHK likes taking high level competitors. Their interest in a quality competition, not padding the competition for their own skaters. I just can’t see two feds taking her next year.
Note: "she" is Starr Andrews
Except for host picks, which are unrestricted, skaters have to earn GP spots through placement at the World Championships, World Standings, or Season's Best Score. Starr won't be going to Worlds, so she would have to qualify through World Standings or Season's Best Score. At the moment she's 48th on the score list: that may go down as other ladies compete and she doesn't. Don't know if her final ranking will be high enough to get her 2 spots: it depends on how many skaters ahead of her are junior/staying junior and Russian (spots for one country are limited).
Only if she is high enough on the list do host preferences matter; at that point fan base, crowd-pleasing, and non-threatening would come into play.
