2018-19 Russian Ladies' figure skating

[ancientpeas]

Not sure why that's funny. Mariah Bell's personal best this season (at NHK) is higher than Zagitova's total score at Europeans, Medvedeva's IdF/SkateCanada scores, and Samodurova's Rostelecom/SkateAmerica scores. You never know what could happen.

Honestly though CSG it is highly unlikely that Mariah (whom I adore because she is charming especially in the kiss and cry with Raf) is going to beat Zagitova. If things went very badly for Sofia she might possibly place higher than her. I think Mariah will have to have the skate of her life to beat any of the Russian ladies here. She is the second U.S. lady and she won't have the same kind of push from the fed. If anyone can sneak in there I would say it is Bradie. I still think it is going to be a Russia vs Japan showdown in ladies. Would not surprise me one bit if it is 3 Russian ladies and 3 Japanese ladies in the final group.

 

[Colonel Green]

But Sofia has been steadily increasing, while Bradie has only stagnated. Sofia always performs almost clean, without Bradie’s biggest enemy: URs plaguing her score. I fully expect Sofia to be a strong fourth place or even podium finisher, after all she did beat Satoko and the GPF. And same with Zhenya, her last competition was very good, and hopefully she can improve. And Alina, all the luck to her! A clean Alina can challenge Rika Kihira for FIRST place.

I don’t expect the Russian team to be at risk of losing three. It could happen, of course, but only in the sense that it’s figure skating and there’s always a chance for a black swan event.

Sofia is the lynchpin. She hasn’t had any major jump errors since Lombardia — indeed, she’s the most consistent performer in any discipline that involves jumping. She’s got a lower ceiling than some others, but with that Euros title her PCS will probably rise further. I see her finishing somewhere between third and fifth, depending on what other people do.

Alina has kind of had three phases this season:

1. Nebelhorn, where she looked dominant.
2. The Grand Prix series, where she struggled but still got very respectable scores.
3. Nationals/Europeans, where she was in full meltdown (but still finished second in the latter because of her PCS cushion and a weak field).

If she can get back to at least #2, she’d be competitive for the podium, even if probably not the very top of it. If the progression continues downward, though, her placement is more dubious. If she repeats her Euros performance (solid short, bad free), for instance, I would guess she’d end up around the bottom rungs of the top ten (the ladies field at the Worlds level is less competitive now than in the past few seasons, because the strongest non-Russian/Japanese skaters are generally retired or sitting this season out, so I think there’s a limit to how far she could fall unless she just starts popping everything).

Evgenia...first half of the season wasn’t good, has shown improvements. If she had a repeat of the RCF performance (one fall in the free), I’d expect a solid placement somewhere in the top six, though maybe on the lower end, again depending on what other people do.

 

[malya]

Liza 3A 2A seq

https://twitter.com/TuktikLiza/status/1101474220041740288?s=19

 

[Osmond4gold]

Honestly though CSG it is highly unlikely that Mariah (whom I adore because she is charming especially in the kiss and cry with Raf) is going to beat Zagitova. If things went very badly for Sofia she might possibly place higher than her. I think Mariah will have to have the skate of her life to beat any of the Russian ladies here. She is the second U.S. lady and she won't have the same kind of push from the fed. If anyone can sneak in there I would say it is Bradie. I still think it is going to be a Russia vs Japan showdown in ladies. Would not surprise me one bit if it is 3 Russian ladies and 3 Japanese ladies in the final group.

Yes AP, this was the belief the last 2 Worlds that it would be a Russian - Japan showdown, and look how 'that' prediction held up. Look it's Worlds and there are never assurances and the pack with a couple of icons out this season, is much closer than ever.

Expect the unexpected.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

Sofia is the lynchpin. She hasn’t had any major jump errors since Lombardia — indeed, she’s the most consistent performer in any discipline that involves jumping. She’s got a lower ceiling than some others, but with that Euros title her PCS will probably rise further. I see her finishing somewhere between third and fifth, depending on what other people do.

Actually, I think Anna Tarusina might be even more consistent
Sofia's been incredible this whole season, but I can't remember Anna making a mistake since... I don't know when, actually. Perfect this season and last, iirc.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Honestly though CSG it is highly unlikely that Mariah (whom I adore because she is charming especially in the kiss and cry with Raf) is going to beat Zagitova. If things went very badly for Sofia she might possibly place higher than her. I think Mariah will have to have the skate of her life to beat any of the Russian ladies here. She is the second U.S. lady and she won't have the same kind of push from the fed. If anyone can sneak in there I would say it is Bradie. I still think it is going to be a Russia vs Japan showdown in ladies. Would not surprise me one bit if it is 3 Russian ladies and 3 Japanese ladies in the final group.

Oh, of course. But I'm just pointing out that all these skaters have had ups and downs this season and nothing is set in stone. After all, Zagitova was supposed to win and didn't medal and Jin was supposed to medal too and easily could have. Things happen and nobody is a sure shot if they're having an off-day. Yeah, the likelihood is Bell won't best the Russians if they are in form, but you never know -- she did beat one of the Russian representatives last year.

 

[ancientpeas]

Yes AP, this was the belief the last 2 Worlds that it would be a Russian - Japan showdown, and look how 'that' prediction held up. Look it's Worlds and there are never assurances and the pack with a couple of icons out this season, is much closer than ever.

Expect the unexpected.

I am the last person to say that things could not turn out very differently but I would also say that it is highly likely that it will not be some combination of Russian ladies and Japanese ladies on the podium this time. Without Carolina and Kaetlyn it would seem unlikely that anyone else can challenge for a medal. But I also love upsets. I would love to see Sofia or Evgenia win. I would also be happy to see Alina win as it would complete her trophy case. I would probably faint with happiness if Satoko won but also Rika or Kaori would be excellent winners for different reasons. But upsets are exciting and someone like Elizabet or Loena or a Korean lady would be amazing too. Kind of like the U.S defeating the USSR in '80 or Y.E. Yang beating Tiger Woods.

 

[icybear]

So I looked up the entire history of GPF women medalists and the entries for Worlds that year and I found that only 8 grand prix final women medalist was not selected to go to Worlds that year. However 6 of them were not because they werent chosen. These were Satoko 2017 (injury), Mao 2006 (age ineligibility), Irina Slutskaya 2006 (olympic year WD herself), Irina Slutskaya 2003 (WD herself mother illness), Sarah Hughes (WD just won olympic gold), Tara Lipinski 1998 (WD infection also just won olympic gold). Of the other 2 these were Irina Slutskaya 1999 (finished 4th at RusNat, top 3 went instead) and Josee Chouinard (unknown reasons, maybe cause she finished in 2nd in Nats and Canada only had 1 spot). And now Elizaveta Tuktamysheva not chosen for god knows why.

 

[BillNeal]

But Sofia has been steadily increasing, while Bradie has only stagnated. Sofia always performs almost clean, without Bradie’s biggest enemy: URs plaguing her score. I fully expect Sofia to be a strong fourth place or even podium finisher, after all she did beat Satoko and the GPF. And same with Zhenya, her last competition was very good, and hopefully she can improve. And Alina, all the luck to her! A clean Alina can challenge Rika Kihira for FIRST place.

Out of the three, this is the least likely to happen. The last time Alina has had a competition 'clean' was Nebelhorn, an often cited event because of her free skate WR but a 'B' event nonetheless. She showed suspect jumps there already, like her +3Lo uncalled < but the lenient tech panel temporarily masked the problems. Since then, her jumps have deteriorated even further and it was no longer merited to give her as many passes. Clean is very far-fetched at this point considering her past two competitions with falls, underrotations, missed jumps/pop and a downgrade combined. The Russian Fed may still be attracted to the lustre of her gold from last year and therefore not willing to leave her off the team, even though she is really Russian #4 in terms of being able to deliver in recent competitions. The ability to retain three spots may very well be up to Sofia and Zhenya.

 

[Colonel Green]

and Josee Chouinard (unknown reasons, maybe cause she finished in 2nd in Nats and Canada only had 1 spot).

The first Grand Prix Final (ahem, Champions Series Final) was held at the end of February, rather than early December as has since become standard. So Josée had not actually won a GPF medal at the time of the Worlds selection. If she had it might have been different, even with her second-place Nationals finish.

 

[Elana]

Idk maybe its just me, but I think all three girls will have very strong showings at worlds. They haven't been perfect all season, but that doesn't prove that they can't skate lights out at worlds. Maybe this is too optimistic, but I can think they will all skate clean at worlds and place top 8. Any combination of their placements will be good enough for three spots. Regardless of how their programs actually go, I see no threat this season to losing the three spots, its just really not plausible. Just give the girls a chance, anything is possible.

 

[Tutto]

Out of the three, this is the least likely to happen. The last time Alina has had a competition 'clean' was Nebelhorn, an often cited event because of her free skate WR but a 'B' event nonetheless. She showed suspect jumps there already, like her +3Lo uncalled < but the lenient tech panel temporarily masked the problems. Since then, her jumps have deteriorated even further and it was no longer merited to give her as many passes. Clean is very far-fetched at this point considering her past two competitions with falls, underrotations, missed jumps/pop and a downgrade combined. The Russian Fed may still be attracted to the lustre of her gold from last year and therefore not willing to leave her off the team, even though she is really Russian #4 in terms of being able to deliver in recent competitions. The ability to retain three spots may very well be up to Sofia and Zhenya.

I incline to agree with you, we can hope for the best but objectively it is unlikely Alina will be in her top form again (I am not saying ever but this season). She is the only reigning Oly champ continuing to compete non-stop and frankly I think she was pushed beyond the limit of endurance, add to this puberty and pressure to stay at the top and one can only wonder if it might end in total breakdown

 

[Vandevska]

Not sure why that's funny. Mariah Bell's personal best this season (at NHK) is higher than Zagitova's total score at Europeans, Medvedeva's IdF/SkateCanada scores, and Samodurova's Rostelecom/SkateAmerica scores. You never know what could happen.

It's not only funny, it's ridiculous too. I mean, I'd expect even Evgenia who apparently is the biggest IF to outscore Mariah. As for Sofia, those 2 events were months ago, EC will have been 2 months ago by the time WC is here, and she has the status of an EC behind her which will boost her score even higher. I cannot comment on Zagitova simply because the first 2 competitions of the season were so drastically different than the last 2 that I don't know what will happen. Even despite that, I'm sure she'll outscore all 3. Regardless of what happens, Evgenia and Alina will be the PCS queens, and Rika will be the PCS princess, and the one to beat.

This is my first and last "prediction" for the WC, I just simply couldn't resist now. I can't wrap my head around the fact that 90% of the people here are making such a big deal out of preserving those 3 spots. I mean for god's sake, how you can imagine a worse situation than last year is beyond me. Let's PLEASE move on, and be one less website that puts pressure on all 3 girls. Let them prepare to give it their best, instead of having them worry about giving enough for the spots.

 

[Colonel Green]

Idk maybe its just me, but I think all three girls will have very strong showings at worlds. They haven't been perfect all season, but that doesn't prove that they can't skate lights out at worlds. Maybe this is too optimistic, but I can think they will all skate clean at worlds and place top 8. Any combination of their placements will be good enough for three spots. Regardless of how their programs actually go, I see no threat this season to losing the three spots, its just really not plausible. Just give the girls a chance, anything is possible.

In the ordinary course of things, I agree that there’s no reason why a bad event (or even multiple such) cannot be followed up with a good one. That’s beyond dispute.

The issue with Alina is that to all appearances her problem is not that she had two bad days, which happen to everyone — rather, she’s suffering from progressive technique deterioration, which has only been getting worse as the season goes on.

Even that doesn’t rule out her putting out at least a solid performance (like she still does in run throughs, presumably), but it’s a big challenge.

Evgenia is kind of in the opposite situation, trying to come back from injury while also implementing a ton of technique changes. Early on that was a real struggle; she’s still not there yet, but the passage of time is her friend in this case.

 

[heyheyhey]

^ it’s not ridiculous. Unlikely, but def not ridiculous. Everyone should know there are no guarantees in skating by now.

Anyways, been thinking this might end up being the best thing for Liza. She has become the sentimental favorite in terms of people rooting for her success. If she can get even better programs next season & deliver, the momentum will be on her side. She can use the goodwill she’s earned to her advantage. I think she has another comeback in her.

 

[alvina9894]

Actually, I think Anna Tarusina might be even more consistent
Sofia's been incredible this whole season, but I can't remember Anna making a mistake since... I don't know when, actually. Perfect this season and last, iirc.

Anna Tarusina's last fall in competition was from 2016/17 Moscow Championships on 24 Feb 2017 (UR fall on 3F in the free skate).
Since then, she had skated 18 clean competitions, or in other words, 36 clean programs.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Anna Tarusina's last fall in competition was from 2016/17 Moscow Championships on 24 Feb 2017 (UR fall on 3F in the free skate).
Since then, she had skated 18 clean competitions, or in other words, 36 clean programs.

THAT is crazy. Is that 36 programs with no error (like even a stepout or UR?) or 36 programs without a fall? Either way is still impressive.

 

[zounger]

THAT is crazy. Is that 36 programs with no error (like even a stepout or UR?) or 36 programs without a fall? Either way is still impressive.

And if you consider the injury that she came from, that is even more impressive.

 

[lesnar001]

I incline to agree with you, we can hope for the best but objectively it is unlikely Alina will be in her top form again (I am not saying ever but this season). She is the only reigning Oly champ continuing to compete non-stop and frankly I think she was pushed beyond the limit of endurance, add to this puberty and pressure to stay at the top and one can only wonder if it might end in total breakdown

In the ordinary course of things, I agree that there’s no reason why a bad event (or even multiple such) cannot be followed up with a good one. That’s beyond dispute.

The issue with Alina is that to all appearances her problem is not that she had two bad days, which happen to everyone — rather, she’s suffering from progressive technique deterioration, which has only been getting worse as the season goes on.

Even that doesn’t rule out her putting out at least a solid performance (like she still does in run throughs, presumably), but it’s a big challenge.

Evgenia is kind of in the opposite situation, trying to come back from injury while also implementing a ton of technique changes. Early on that was a real struggle; she’s still not there yet, but the passage of time is her friend in this case.

I may not agree with every point regarding Alina, but thank you both for stating your analysis in a positive and respectful manner.

And not in such a way that is meant to denigrate not only what she HAS accomplished this season, but Alina herself.

It is definitely not going to be easy for her at Worlds. I am a huge fan of hers, but not blind to the obvious issues she has had this season.

But no matter what, she will be in there fighting for every element and level like she always does.

And I think THIS (as well as what she has accomplished this season) is why the Russian Federation has faith in her.
They appreciate Alina the athlete and skater - not the shiny lustre of a gold medal or whatever.

And Alina also has 2 teammates that also have no quit in them.
So no matter what the placements end up being, we know they will have done all they could.

And regarding Russia "just barely" holding onto 3 spots last year.
Well, whether it was with 3 points or 13 points, the fact is they got 3 spots.
And Alina, in spite of her 3 falls, still never gave up on her LP.
She must have been crestfallen, especailly after the season she had.
But she still fought for every single element in her program.
Had she "given up", she may well have finished lower than 5th, and thus Russia would only have 2 spots.

 

[alvina9894]

THAT is crazy. Is that 36 programs with no error (like even a stepout or UR?) or 36 programs without a fall? Either way is still impressive.

36 programs without a fall or stepout. This season, she has received two UR call, one on 3Lz in JGP Ljubljana, one on her 1Eu in CS Inge Solar Memorial.