Will Zagitova return?

[SkateSkates]

I agree with posters above that Liza’s problem is layout related. Let’s take the Finlandia LP as an example - 2 skaters with 3As, yet Aliona’s base value was 8 points higher than Liza’s. Both had 1 call: 1 UR for Aliona and an edge call on Liza’s 3F. But Liza also popped her important 3 jump combo in the 2nd half into a double Sal and didn’t even attempt a 3-3, plus lost levels on non-jump elements. These half points here and there add up and affect the factored GOE, which only makes it harder for her to catch up.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Liza is a world champion figure skater she does tough jumps she should not be losing to Eteris girls by 30 or 40 points. Losing to them is one thing but by 30 or 40 points is not fair and just not right

Liza does tough jumps, but all the little differences add up. IIRC she does not regularly attempt 8 triples in the LP, so that's a missed opportunity. She could repeat the 3A and the 3Lz in the LP. She could do a harder combo in the SP. Her spins are, frankly, abysmal for someone at her level. Those things alone would account for a big gap, without even considering jump GOE or PCS.

 

[Amei]

Liza is a world champion figure skater she does tough jumps she should not be losing to Eteris girls by 30 or 40 points. Losing to them is one thing but by 30 or 40 points is not fair and just not right

Outside of Nationals she only competed directly against Shcherbakova, the most Shcherbakova beat her by was a little over 21 points; it's hard to compare vs. Trusova or Kostornaia since they were scored by different judging panels. Yes at Nationals she lost by 57 points to 1st place Shcherbakova but she wasn't clean like Shcherbakova and Kostornaia, she swapped out her consistent triple axel combination for a quad that she under-rotated and fell on, she then under-rotated her solo triple axel, triple loop and trip flip.

Lombardia trophy: Shcherbakova won by 3.82 points
Skate America: Shcherbakova won by 21.19 points
Cup of China: Shcherbakova won by 16.94 points


If Tuktamysheva wants to be competitive with the top 3 in her country by what she puts on the ice and not counting on a slump or bad skates from them, she's got to increase her technical difficulty and I'm not talking about adding a quad, but being smarter about her layouts. At Nationals she and Guliakova were the only 2 skaters in the top 9 to not back-load a triple-triple combination in the FS, by the time of Nationals Kostornaia/Trusova/Shcherbakova each only had 1 planned double jump in their FS layouts, Tuktamysheva had 4. The only triple-triple she competed last season was the 3T-3T front-loaded in the SP, the easiest combination to do. Even if there is a stamina issue for the FS, she should be able to at least back-load in the SP, that's half the length of a FS, so if she can complete a FS than she should be able back-load a combination in the SP. And I brought this up earlier in the thread, she has nice technique on her jumps, but she does almost no steps/transitions into her jumps, which is going to negatively impact the GOE she gets in relation to her competitors.

 

[Amei]

Liza does tough jumps, but all the little differences add up. IIRC she does not regularly attempt 8 triples in the LP, so that's a missed opportunity. She could repeat the 3A and the 3Lz in the LP. She could do a harder combo in the SP. Her spins are, frankly, abysmal for someone at her level. Those things alone would account for a big gap, without even considering jump GOE or PCS.

She was doing 2 triple axels in the FS prior to Nationals, she replaced a stable triple axel combination jump for a quad - perhaps it was a trial run to get over the hump of throwing the quad in competition, but she can't be swapping a triple axel out for a quad and leave in 4 double jumps. Look at Shcherbakova for the GPF when she swapped out 1 of the double axels for the quad flip even though she fell on the quad flip - she got more points for a fall on the quad vs. the landed double axel that she was doing at her prior competitions. So that was a smart change to do and it was worth the risk that as long she rotated it she could do better point-wise than doing the double axel.

 

[flanker]

Outside of Nationals she only competed directly against Shcherbakova, the most Shcherbakova beat her by was a little over 21 points; it's hard to compare vs. Trusova or Kostornaia since they were scored by different judging panels. Yes at Nationals she lost by 57 points to 1st place Shcherbakova but she wasn't clean like Shcherbakova and Kostornaia, she swapped out her consistent triple axel combination for a quad that she under-rotated and fell on, she then under-rotated her solo triple axel, triple loop and trip flip.

Finlandia trophy: Shcherbakova won by 3.82 points
Skate America: Shcherbakova won by 21.19 points
Cup of China: Shcherbakova won by 16.94 points


If Tuktamysheva wants to be competitive with the top 3 in her country by what she puts on the ice and not counting on a slump or bad skates from them, she's got to increase her technical difficulty and I'm not talking about adding a quad, but being smarter about her layouts. At Nationals she and Guliakova were the only 2 skaters in the top 9 to not back-load a triple-triple combination in the FS, by the time of Nationals Kostornaia/Trusova/Shcherbakova each only had 1 planned double jump in their FS layouts, Tuktamysheva had 4. The only triple-triple she competed last season was the 3T-3T front-loaded in the SP, the easiest combination to do. Even if there is a stamina issue for the FS, she should be able to at least back-load in the SP, that's half the length of a FS, so if she can complete a FS than she should be able back-load a combination in the SP. And I brought this up earlier in the thread, she has nice technique on her jumps, but she does almost no steps/transitions into her jumps, which is going to negatively impact the GOE she gets in relation to her competitors.

Just a note, you mean Lombardia Trophy, not Finlandia Trophy (Liza fought with Aliona there).

 

[plushyfan]

I believe she wants to come back. But what kind of program should she has if she wants to win? Wich jumps, what layout, etc...

 

[flanker]

I believe she wants to come back. But what kind of program should she has if she wants to win? Wich jumps, what layout, etc...

It was proposed already. One question is whether Alina is able to add a quad into a competitive program. It was probably on a good way before the closing of the rinks, but we don't know how it will work now. In case she would be able to gain one reliable quad (which would be 4F with the highest probability), than the best posible layout would be:
4F+3T 4F 2A 3S 3Lz-3Lo 3F-2T-2Lo 3F

If not, of course winning would probably have to rely on being perfectly clean, while others would have to make some mistakes. But still we should remember Alina's top score is 238 points and Aliona's record score is 247 points. 9 points difference when Alina did not any 3A/quad against a perfect two programs with three 3As is not that much, and even during the last season Alina was still able to skate short programs with the score close to 80 and free programs with the scores over 150 points (and she is currently the only non3A/quad skater capable of it). Even with just one quad for start Alina would be a serious threat.

But first thing for Alina is that she must want to compete for medals.

 

[plushyfan]

It was proposed already. One question is whether Alina is able to add a quad into a competitive program. It was probably on a good way before the closing of the rinks, but we don't know how it will work now. In case she would be able to gain one reliable quad (which would be 4F with the highest probability), than the best posible layout would be:
4F+3T 4F 2A 3S 3Lz-3Lo 3F-2T-2Lo 3F

If not, of course winning would probably have to rely on being perfectly clean, while others would have to make some mistakes. But still we should remember Alina's top score is 238 points and Aliona's record score is 247 points. 9 points difference when Alina did not any 3A/quad against a perfect two programs with three 3As is not that much, and even during the last season alina was still able to skate short programs with the score close to 80 and free programs with the scores over 150 points (and she is currently the only non3A/quad skater capable of it). Even with just one quad for start Alina would be a serious threat.

But first thing for Alina is that she must want to compete for medals.

THX! It could be a very exciting season! Why do you think her quad should be the Flip? That is not the easiest jump

 

[starlight97]

It was proposed already. One question is whether Alina is able to add a quad into a competitive program. It was probably on a good way before the closing of the rinks, but we don't know how it will work now.

What makes you think that it was on a good way? She has never landed one, not even in practice, the only videos we have seen are on a harness and not even then. And in competition the last time we saw her she wasn't even able to skate her normal program with triples.

Not meant as a negative comment, I just wonder if there's some material I missed that explains the idea that she was on a good way to getting a quad.

 

[flanker]

What makes you think that it was on a good way? She has never landed one, not even in practice, the only videos we have seen are on a harness and not even then. And in competition the last time we saw her she wasn't even able to skate her normal program with triples.

Not meant as a negative comment, I just wonder if there's some material I missed that explains the idea that she was on a good way to getting a quad.

Because Alina said she is landing it in practise (e.g. here, originally in the big interview for the Cosmopolitan). That makes me think it was on a good way.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

It was proposed already. One question is whether Alina is able to add a quad into a competitive program. It was probably on a good way before the closing of the rinks, but we don't know how it will work now. In case she would be able to gain one reliable quad (which would be 4F with the highest probability), than the best posible layout would be:
4F+3T 4F 2A 3S 3Lz-3Lo 3F-2T-2Lo 3F

If not, of course winning would probably have to rely on being perfectly clean, while others would have to make some mistakes. But still we should remember Alina's top score is 238 points and Aliona's record score is 247 points. 9 points difference when Alina did not any 3A/quad against a perfect two programs with three 3As is not that much, and even during the last season Alina was still able to skate short programs with the score close to 80 and free programs with the scores over 150 points (and she is currently the only non3A/quad skater capable of it). Even with just one quad for start Alina would be a serious threat.

But first thing for Alina is that she must want to compete for medals.

Wait, I think it could be even better

4F+3T, 4F, 2A, 2A, 3Lz-3Lo, 3Lz-Eu-3S, 3F Though she's said before that 3S is her hardest jump, I think? And I haven't seen her do an -Eu-3S combo, so I don't think it is likely. But possible, yes, maybe. I'd love to see it!

 

[flanker]

Wait, I think it could be even better

4F+3T, 4F, 2A, 2A, 3Lz-3Lo, 3Lz-Eu-3S, 3F Though she's said before that 3S is her hardest jump, I think? And I haven't seen her do an -Eu-3S combo, so I don't think is likely. But possible, yes, maybe. I'd love to see it!

That's it, Alina, doesn't do "Euler" combos* and Salchow is her least favourite jump.

-

*for which I'm thankful, I don't like them

 

[starlight97]

Because Alina said she is landing it in practise (e.g. here, originally in the big interview for the Cosmopolitan). That makes me think it was on a good way.

Well that video they link in that article is the same one I was referring to, the only one they've ever put out I guess. And that's not a landed jump, although already with help of the harness.
But if she said so... although she has also said that you need to learn quads while you're young and that she'd have to lose like 5kg to even hope for it? So anyways, I don't think we will ever see a landed quad from her in competition. Before that happens Trusova becomes a PCS skater, Medvedeva gets a correct Lz edge.
But I'd be delighted to be wrong

 

[AshWagsFan]

Because Alina said she is landing it in practise (e.g. here, originally in the big interview for the Cosmopolitan). That makes me think it was on a good way.

No offense to Alina, as I’m sure she is working very hard to come back, I do not see her getting a quad flip for next season. Although the attempt in the video is impressive, it’s from 2018, and with her break and the rink closing because of the coronavirus, I do not think she will be able to nail it consistently in time for Russian nationals. I could be wrong, however, and I think it’s possible to see her landing it in the Olympic season if she stays healthy and doesn’t grow anymore.

 

[AshWagsFan]

Wait, I think it could be even better

4F+3T, 4F, 2A, 2A, 3Lz-3Lo, 3Lz-Eu-3S, 3F Though she's said before that 3S is her hardest jump, I think? And I haven't seen her do an -Eu-3S combo, so I don't think it is likely. But possible, yes, maybe. I'd love to see it!

I don’t think she really would need the Euler SalChow to compete with the other girls. I don’t even think she’d need a second quad flip.

With this layout, and her PCS, steps, and spins, she could probably beat Trusova, Anna, Or Aliona:

4F, 2A, 2A, 3S, 3Lz+3Lo, 3Lz+3T, 3F+2Lo+2Lo

Edit: she could also add a second triple in replacement of one of the double axels, such as triple flip

 

[lesnar001]

That's it, Alina, doesn't do "Euler" combos* and Salchow is her least favourite jump.

-*for which I'm thankful, I don't like them

I'd like to see Alina expand her jumping arsenal and include Euler combos.

No offense to Alina, as I’m sure she is working very hard to come back, I do not see her getting a quad flip for next season. Although the attempt in the video is impressive, it’s from 2018, and with her break and the rink closing because of the coronavirus, I do not think she will be able to nail it consistently in time for Russian nationals. I could be wrong, however, and I think it’s possible to see her landing it in the Olympic season if she stays healthy and doesn’t grow anymore.

From your keyboard to Alina's skates!

 

[Amei]

Just a note, you mean Lombardia Trophy, not Finlandia Trophy (Liza fought with Aliona there).

:noshake: Can't believe I made that typo considering I pulled up the score sheets, Liza didn't go to Finlandia last year.

 

[AshWagsFan]

If Zagitova does not compete in the autumn and there is a Grand Prix, who will receive her assignments?

 

[sparklestan]

Wait, I think it could be even better

4F+3T, 4F, 2A, 2A, 3Lz-3Lo, 3Lz-Eu-3S, 3F Though she's said before that 3S is her hardest jump, I think? And I haven't seen her do an -Eu-3S combo, so I don't think it is likely. But possible, yes, maybe. I'd love to see it!

Perhaps she could do 3Lz-Eu-3F and solo 3S instead since she seems much more comfortable with flip than sal and I think Euler flip combos are cool and unique

 

[Amei]

Because Alina said she is landing it in practise (e.g. here, originally in the big interview for the Cosmopolitan). That makes me think it was on a good way.

Call me negative Nancy but she's been vague on the quad - she gave an interview during the GP season where she said that she needed to lose 3kg to be able to train the quad safely, and here while she mentions she landed it, the accompanying clip was from 2018 and assisted in a harness - but technically didn't end up falling so that could be what she's referring to in terms of landing it. But she might be occasionally jumping it but not actively training it like Shcherbakova/Trusova, unless there was a change in the determination that she needed to lose weight to be able to safely train it.

All in all, if she's training a quad (hopefully a flip, based on points) in some capacity, good for her but it doesn't mean much of anything for her or any other skater 'training' a quad until they are putting it in their competition program.

THX! It could be a very exciting season! Why do you think her quad should be the Flip? That is not the easiest jump

Probably for the same reason Shcherbakova perfected the quad lutz first, at the time it was the highest valued quad and thus it's most forgiving on the points should there be an issue: fall/edge call/under-rotation. Now the highest valued is the flip and the lutz; while Zagitova has a decent outside edge most of the time, she has had some suspect edges on the lutz - it makes no sense to go for the lutz now that the flip is worth just as much and less issues happen with the flip edge. Per my comment yesterday - Shchebakova got more points at the GPF for falling on a rotated quad flip than she did on a clean double axel, I'm sure that calculation/risk assessment was done for Shcherbakova in determining what quad to perfect for competition after the lutz. It's likely the same kind of calculation for what Zagitova should be spending time training.