2020-21 US Women's Figure Skating

[Skatefan15]

Grand Prix Series 2020 Top Scores
1 Kaori Sakamoto Japan 229.51
2 Elizaveta Tuktamysheva Russia 223.39
3 Alena Kostornaia Russia 220.78
4 Mariah Bell United States 212.73
5 Bradie Tennell United States 211.07
6 Audrey Shin United States 206.15
7 Karen Chen United States 204.90
8 Wakaba Higuchi Japan 200.98
9 Anastasiia Guliakova Russia 199.03
10 Rino Matsuike Japan 198.97

Skate America was the only event with top4 all scoring over 200.
If they were to organize gpf by top 6 highest scores 3 US ladies would have made it vs 2 russians and 1 japanese.
But US ladies are supposedly the worst and the weakest right?

I feel like a better argument would be to compare results and such from last year where (1) everyone had equal training across all countries, (2) the scoring is from international competitions instead of domestic competitions with heavy favoritism (very inflated GOE’s and PCS) and (3) every top skater from each country actually competed (Rika, Anna, Satoko, and more). And when you do that the US ladies are definitely lacking compared to Russia and Japan (and by a significant amount). I’m not really holding these seasons “results” as important to be honest (all the grand prix’s were basically nationals). Also compared to the other countries, (imo) the US over scores the worst which is why all those ladies scored as high as they did.

 

[Blades of Passion]

I think they can still get 3 spots this year, if You Young hasn’t regained her form. It’s not likely that all 3 Japanese ladies totally hit, so finishing 6th+7th should still be doable.

What did you think of Karen Chen at Skate America, and Audrey Shin?

Audrey is very talented, and should have won the event. Bradie/Mariah are too vanilla and didn’t skate their best. Audrey hit the elements and has better fluidity and body line, with fine enough skating skills and presentation.

Karen Chen is still the most talented of them all and can hopefully nail the jumps at Nationals. I was absolutely floored she received the highest PCS at Skate America, without even skating her best. Miraculous! She needs to be National Champion again, I really hope it can happen. Skating to Butterfly Lovers is really smart, the program may not be on the level of Lu Chen’s (it’s not even close), but hopefully she can keep refining it and try to pull out as much beauty as this system will allow.

Actually, maybe it’s not the smartest because of the stupid music copyright, which will hurt (kill?) her chances of going viral on YouTube, LOL.

 

[Skatefan15]

I agree. Anything can happen. Even without Alysa, it is not totally out of the question for Bradie and Mariah to grab 6th and 7th.

It's a long shot, though. Commentators used to say things like, "So-and-so has a one-fall advantage over the other girl." But with the base values that the Russian ladies (especially) can put up, they can win even if they hit only half of their planned super-jumps. It's not like the big jumpers are deficient in other areas like Skating Skills and Presentation.

I feel like 2020 worlds would have been the US ladies best bet for the next few years. Especially with the Japanese all skating better, the highest a US lady could finish is 7th and that’s not considering other skaters who could beat them like Young and Loena H.

 

[herro]

why did you even bother posting?

By the way, in case it's helpful, you can choose to "ignore" posts from certain users so that all of their posts are hidden. I've found this useful for certain... ahem... users.

 

[Sjs5572]

I agree. Anything can happen. Even without Alysa, it is not totally out of the question for Bradie and Mariah to grab 6th and 7th.

It's a long shot, though. Commentators used to say things like, "So-and-so has a one-fall advantage over the other girl." But with the base values that the Russian ladies (especially) can put up, they can win even if they hit only half of their planned super-jumps. It's not like the big jumpers are deficient in other areas like Skating Skills and Presentation.

Just a reminder....Alysa is not age eligible for senior events until the 2021-2022 season.

 

[natsulian]

If we're basing the strength of our ladies from last year's scores, these are the top scores from 2019-2020 for senior ladies:

1. Alena K. --- 247.59
2. Alexandra T. --- 241.02
3. Anna S. --- 240.92
4. Rika K. --- 232.34
5. Evgenia M. --- 225.76
6. You Y. --- 223.23
7. Bradie T. --- 222.97
8. Elizaveta T. --- 221.15
9. Alina Z. --- 217.99
10. Mariah B. --- 212.89

If you only have a maximum of three ladies per country the list looks like this:

1. Alena K. --- 247.59
2. Alexandra T. --- 241.02
3. Anna S. --- 240.92
4. Rika K. --- 232.34
5. You Y. --- 223.23
6. Bradie T. --- 222.97
7. Mariah B. --- 212.89
8. Satoko M. --- 211.18
9. Wakaba H. --- 207.46
10. Yelim K. --- 202.76

Based on statistics, it was highly probable that Mariah and Bradie would have earned the placement total necessary for three spots. With an underperformance from Young You, we could have feasibly seen Bradie place 5th and Mariah place 6th or 7th which would amount to 11-12. The US ladies last season were quite formidable and hopefully they show up and show out next season!

This season, I think it's anyone's game. Although a podium placement may be farfetched (although not impossible as the ice is slippery), I think a placement total at or below 13 is quite probably. Best of luck to all our ladies!

 

[Skatesocs]

Audrey is very talented, and should have won the event. Bradie/Mariah are too vanilla and didn’t skate their best. Audrey hit the elements and has better fluidity and body line, with fine enough skating skills and presentation.

Vanilla is expensive!!

I agree they are way too bland, and have been constantly confused with their high PCS. Yes, Audrey should have won. She has better skating skills than either of those two as well.

Karen Chen is still the most talented of them all and can hopefully nail the jumps at Nationals. She needs to be National Champion again.

Yes.

Skating to Butterfly Lovers is really smart, the program may not be on the level of Lu Chen’s (it’s not even close), but hopefully she can keep refining it and try to pull out as much beauty as this system will allow.

It's not. She needs better music cuts. I agree it's smart, since she's the only one who can bring that music out in the entire current crop of ladies - she'll be keeping it for Beijing, I expect.

Actually, maybe it’s not the smartest because of the stupid music copyright, which will hurt (kill?) her chances of going viral on YouTube, LOL.

Well, there's always Weibo. Never got why they killed the audio, since no one should be having a copyright for that piece of music? Not to my knowledge.

 

[Sjs5572]

No it’s not helpful, it’s the antithesis of a discussion forum. Going around asking people to be ignorant is quite despicable. There are numerous people I find annoying, but to censor would be a disservice to the community and my own viewpoint.

Who knows though, maybe rampant ignorance is a good way to make the world a better place. Perhaps this forum can also institute an algorithm to filter content, since that has also proven to be such a worthwhile thing for the enlightenment of humanity. Now excuse me for a moment, my echo chamber is ringing, I better go tow the line before my brain can start considering anything that hasn’t been pre-approved by The Agency for Groupthink, Complacence, and a Better Tomorrow. I heard they are handing out soma pills too, don’t miss tha

 

[brightphoton]

Can't remember his name, but there was a male redhead skater from Canada who had major music copyright issues during his last season. He either couldn't perform his program or had to change his program music completely. I felt bad for him. It must've been such a damper on the end of his career. You always want your last performance to be something special.

It's such a mess out there with copyrights and videos. So many skating videos are deleted due to copyright or geoblocked. Karen's Olympic performance isn't even on non-paywalled internet. You can't go viral if people need to pay $5/month for Peacock to see your video.

 

[Amei]

Can't remember his name, but there was a male redhead skater from Canada who had major music copyright issues during his last season. He either couldn't perform his program or had to change his program music completely. I felt bad for him. It must've been such a damper on the end of his career. You always want your last performance to be something special.

It's such a mess out there with copyrights and videos. So many skating videos are deleted due to copyright or geoblocked. Karen's Olympic performance isn't even on non-paywalled internet. You can't go viral if people need to pay $5/month for Peacock to see your video.

Well I think it depends if the skater is concerned with whether or not they "go viral"....I don't remember the issue with the Canadian skater but IMO - copyright use with music should be something ironed out before the season starts. Its a sad situation a bit for the ISU that perhaps they should look into ways to help skaters - the 'cheering' that got done for allowing lyrics in programs was that it would help grow the sports popularity because skaters could use more current music vs. Moonlight Sonata that while lovely doesn't attract the key demographic for TV ratings.

 

[NanaPat]

Can't remember his name, but there was a male redhead skater from Canada who had major music copyright issues during his last season.

I believe you're thinking of Kevin Reynolds.

 

[brightphoton]

Well I think it depends if the skater is concerned with whether or not they "go viral"....I don't remember the issue with the Canadian skater but IMO - copyright use with music should be something ironed out before the season starts. Its a sad situation a bit for the ISU that perhaps they should look into ways to help skaters - the 'cheering' that got done for allowing lyrics in programs was that it would help grow the sports popularity because skaters could use more current music vs. Moonlight Sonata that while lovely doesn't attract the key demographic for TV ratings.

That would be good, but I don't know how much competency I should expect from skating federations ...

I believe you're thinking of Kevin Reynolds.

Yes, that must be it. The guy I remember had chosen Japanese music and had trouble with Japanese copyright system. I looked Kevin up on Wikipedia, and his last long program had music from a Japanese video game. Poor guy.

 

[TontoK]

It's not. She needs better music cuts. I agree it's smart, since she's the only one who can bring that music out in the entire current crop of ladies - she'll be keeping it for Beijing, I expect.

The mention of Beijing brings to mind another question. We've discussed on various threads about the criteria for spot allotments among different federations.

But what about US Olympic Team selection when so much of the criteria seems to rely on past performance. How do you assess that when so much of the year or years preceding has been abbreviated so sharply?

Perhaps the circumstances will offer a stake in the heart to the "body of work" criteria that I dislike so much, and US Nationals will become a true Olympic Trials.

 

[rollerblade]

Maybe they can have skaters earn Olympic spots via Fall 2021 ISU events (Challenger Series, Grand Prix).

I don't know how to make it fair though, as standings do depend on who gets assigned to which event.

 

[NAOTMAA]

Well as last year's worlds selection pretty much proved "body of work" simply means "skaters who we personally like." So the lack of competitions doesn't really make much of a difference since they got their personal views pretty much set as this year's Skate America proved.

This whole so called "season" is a total mess and I personally don't hold it against any skater/team who doesn't do well but I wouldn't be shocked if the USFSA did use it if its beneficial to them and they don't get the results at next years nationals that they want.

 

[Bluediamonds09]

Wondering where I can find a complete list of the ladies who made the cut to junior and senior nationals.

Curious about some of my old favorites, Haley Beavers, Violetta Ushakova, Hanna Harrell, Maxine Bautista,

 

[Skatesocs]

Perhaps the circumstances will offer a stake in the heart to the "body of work" criteria that I dislike so much,

Yes me too, given how it seems to depend more on "stories" and "marketability" - to be translated as "clowning for the media" and "we want any sort of publicity for skating at all" seeing the """""personalities""""" who've got it the past two cycles and what has usually come of it - I'd much rather see it based on the top 3 at nationals + immediate season's results + immediately previous worlds/junior worlds, with most emphasis on nationals. Merit. And not of that other kind.

 

[Mathman]

Perhaps the circumstances will offer a stake in the heart to the "body of work" criteria that I dislike so much, and US Nationals will become a true Olympic Trials.

I don't know if this is really the truth or if it is just legaleze baloney, but several years ago when the USFSA switched from "top three at Nationals" to "body of work" the justification given was this: If US Nationals is in fact the "Olympic Qualifying Event" then the IOC charter and agreements between the IOC and individual sports provide that the event is under the control of the USOC, not the USFSA. So the USFSA, not wanting interference from the USOC, added some weasel words about placement in other events to get around the issue.

 

[Mathman]

I'd much rather see it based on the top 3 at nationals + immediate season's results + immediately previous worlds/junior worlds, with most emphasis on nationals. Merit.

Isn't that exactly what the current system is?

There are a number of criteria, with placement at U.S. Nationals given top priority, but also taking into account (but (weighted less heavily) placement at the previous year's Worlds, Four Continents, Grand Prix Finals, Junior Worlds. etc.

(The only problem is with Four Continents because that happens after U.S. Nationals, so they go back to the previous year.)

This year and next, of course, are in limbo because of all the cancelled and truncated events.

 

[Mathman]

If we're basing the strength of our ladies from last year's scores, these are the top scores from 2019-2020 for senior ladies:

1. Alena K. --- 247.59
2. Alexandra T. --- 241.02
3. Anna S. --- 240.92
4. Rika K. --- 232.34
5. Evgenia M. --- 225.76
6. You Y. --- 223.23
7. Bradie T. --- 222.97
8. Elizaveta T. --- 221.15
9. Alina Z. --- 217.99
10. Mariah B. --- 212.89

If you only have a maximum of three ladies per country the list looks like this:

1. Alena K. --- 247.59
2. Alexandra T. --- 241.02
3. Anna S. --- 240.92
4. Rika K. --- 232.34
5. You Y. --- 223.23
6. Bradie T. --- 222.97
7. Mariah B. --- 212.89
8. Satoko M. --- 211.18
9. Wakaba H. --- 207.46
10. Yelim K. --- 202.76

Based on statistics, it was highly probable that Mariah and Bradie would have earned the placement total necessary for three spots.

I would say that these statistics predeict only a slim chance for the U.S. ladies.

In the first list, Bradie and Maria total 17. In the second list, they squeek through with the required 13. But it seems just as likely that Satoko or Wakaba wcould get a few more points as that You would get a few less. A knuckle-biter either way.

I would feel more confident about the Thrilla Vanilla ssquad if they had a little bigger cushion. They will have to be perfect and hope that some of their rivals fall off the pace a little.