US Olympic Team Announced

[chuckm]

No one seems to remember Ross Miner's competition record. When he finished 2nd in 2018, it was the first time he stood on the National podium since 2013. After winning the Junior title in 2009 he was 3rd as a senior in 2011 and 2012, then moved up to 2nd in 2013. He was 5th at 2016 and 2017 Nationals.

Internationally, he had some early successes from 2012-2014, including some Challengers and Senior Bs, but was 5th and 6th in his 2017 Challenger events. He skated in the GP from 2010 through 2017, and won 3 bronze medals (2015, 2012, 2011). But in 2016 and 2017 he was 12th, 9th and 6th.

He went to Worlds in 2011 (11th) and 2013 (14th), and to 4CC in 2012 (3rd), 2013 (9th) and 2016 (14th).

Ross had a very good Junior career, but his development as a senior skater went off the rails after a few promising years. His BOW leading up to the 2018 Olympics was undistinguished, to say the least.

 

[el henry]

That’s the issue the talent here is real and obvious and he is being held back in Favor of a skater who know one seriously thinks is legitimately a medal contender either now or the future.

I would get it if Jason had let’s say Lizas body of work he doesn’t.

This feels like sentiment and favoritism.

Have you looked at the USFS Criteria for selection to the Olympic team. This thread discusses the criteria:



and here are the criteria. As the criteria are applied, Jason was the leading candidate in Group Three:




Posters may not agree with the criteria. They may not agree that the criteria yielded the best results. But they were applied transparently. In pairs, women and men.

So it is not sentiment or favoritism.

 

[Flying Feijoa]

It’s crazy. The Cold War has been over for a long time.

Thanks for your reply. You're probably right.

Spoiler: ...

But I still can't point out that the people who come to watch the performance live are not a representative sample of the millions of people who watch figure skating only during the Olympics (at least in my country)

Again I'm dropping in to mention something slightly off-topic, but @florin has a point - maybe not now, and not in the protective bubble of figure skating fandom, but I can definitely imagine that in the near future if current trends hold, someone with a purely Russian or Chinese name might face obstacles in Western society. The Olympics do indeed draw a more general audience, and the original Cold War may have thawed years ago, but currently North America/Western Europe tensions with Russia/China are the highest in years. Under the CBC article announcing Canada's Olympic skating team, there were some pretty unpleasant comments accusing the athletes of supporting human rights abuses/deserving to be detained overseas (granted, the comments section is usually pretty trashy).

I don't think Ilia has been subject to prejudice (he has American mannerisms and doesn't even speak Russian very well). Just wanted to remind people to be vigilant for the possibility of it happening. When sentiment against a country builds up high enough, it almost inevitably spills over to diaspora (examples: interned Canadians in WWII, anti-Asian hate crimes in early 2020).

 

[Blades of Passion]

Have you looked at the USFS Criteria for selection to the Olympic team.

The criteria only sorts the skaters into groups. Brown and Malinin were in the same one. So either way it's a decision to be made, and logical thought and analysis needs to be used, not robotic numbers on paper that don't tell the truth.

 

[el henry]

The criteria only sorts the skaters into groups. Brown and Malinin were in the same one. So either way it's a decision to be made, and logical thought and analysis needs to be used, not robotic numbers on paper that don't tell the truth.

Did you read further about the additional critteria for classification of skaters *within* Group 3? It doesn't sound as if you did, because by my reading Jason prevails over Ilia on that criteria.

What is "robotic" to some is "fair" to others. I don't want the judge making up the law as it suits her, and not following the rules, because they don't want to be "robotic".

The decision was transparent and fair. Now, folks will argue from now until the end of time if the strongest skater was selected. I say yes, others will say no. But that is way different than whether it was transparent.

 

[synesthesia]

Yes, Takahashi had better accolades. The point I was making is that Takahashi did not deliver at pre-Sochi Nationals and yet he got placed on the National team because of his prowess, as well as an NHK gold that season. It was enough to go to the Olympics over Oda who was 3rd at the GPF and wasn't exactly un-decorated himself. Kozuka got a silver in 2011 and had a GP bronze from CoC that season, but it wasn't enough, nor beating Takahashi by 12 points at Nationals evidently. To me being an Olympic bronze medalist from 4 years prior isn't a reason to be selected for a team, and I don't want skaters to rest on their laurels.

Sentimentally, it was nice to have Daisuke go to Sochi but it was all pageantry really. The only reason Takahashi was 6th and so close to a bronze medal in Sochi was because the field was very weak. If Brown had replicated his quadless Nationals performances, even he could have won the bronze in Sochi. Takahashi placed so high because he got his usual high PCS (and didn't fall) - note that he had only the 12th best TES in the SP, and 13th best TES in the FS. I suspect Jason will have similar issues in 2022, except this time it will be harder with the field having way more quads/medal threats compared to 2014. Only if the guys have Sochi-esque meltdowns will Jason stand a chance at cracking the top 6. Because the SP has fewer elements, Jason might make final flight, but in the FS if the other guys skate their usual, he'll lose ground in the FS with his technical disparity.

Let's get the facts straight, please:

On paper Dai, Taka and Nobu had the same tech content in 2013/14. Each attempted 1 quad in the SP and 1-2 in the FS. Nobu had the highest success rate that season while Taka and Dai were both equally inconsistent/botched the majority of their 4T attempts.

Nevertheless, Dai skated very well at NHK with two clean quads and posted the highest season's score of the 3 in contention for the 3rd spot before he reinjured himself and had to pull out of the GPF, so he could focus on Nationals instead *. Nobu got to go in his place as 1st alternate (it's strange that this detail often gets swept under the rug). I'm sure the federation kept in mind that, if Dai had chosen to compete at the GPF, Nobu wouldn't have had that bronze.

So what helped Dai's case was that he hit all of the selection criteria for the 3rd spot except Nationals placement: he was 3rd in World standings (vs. 10th (Nobu) and 17th (Taka)), had the highest SB (268,31 vs. 262,98 (Nobu) and 230,95 (Taka)) and was the only one to directly qualify for the GPF out of these three.

* The current exemption clause was not in effect back then - competing at Nationals was a requirement to even be considered for the Olympic team selection.

In the end Dai aggravated his injury by being forced to push through Nationals and ended up underperforming at the Olympics. (Which, admittedly, could have also happened, had he not been injured.) Btw, Taka, who placed 3rd at Nationals and replaced Dai at Worlds after the latter had to wd, did no better there and was similarly saved by his PCS (both ended up in 6th place with 13th "best" TES in the FS). Dai's combined TES (SP + FS) in Sochi was 115,02 while Taka's at Worlds was 113,31.


Equating Jason with Dai and Ilia with Nobu/Taka in terms of achievements or tech content is like comparing apples and oranges. The only parallel here is that both JSF and USFS followed their selection criteria. Neither Dai nor Jason were exclusively chosen for sentimental reasons, but because they had done enough to meet the criteria.

 

[TontoK]

Post

Agree. Discussion needs to be emotionally distanced.

My position is that I disagree with the process, but I would never disparage the athletes.

Just like my position that I can disagree with my GS friends on this topic without being disagreeable. Respectful dissent is fine.

I've already said this, but social media is pretty much a cesspool, and it appears to have spilled over into comments sections on other things. It is totally unfair to accuse athletes of supporting human rights abuses. I have, however, noticed an uptick in disdain for the Olympic movement - and particularly these upcoming Games - because... well, just because.

If I boycott NBC coverage, it will because it's just poor quality coverage if Tokyo is the standard, but not for any principled reasons.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Did you read further about the additional critteria for classification of skaters *within* Group 3? It doesn't sound as if you did, because by my reading Jason prevails over Ilia on that criteria.

The criteria states nothing explicitly. If it laid out a formula for who was going to be selected then there would be no discussion. We would just plug the numbers in of their results based on the criteria and that would be the team. But that's not how it is, and not how it ever should be. Because numbers, especially the way they get judged in this sport, are an extremely relative thing. What's important is having the foresight of making a decision that will be most beneficial.

One such benefit could be audience interest, it's actually valid, seeing as USFS is a business, and their business is attracting spectators and participants to their program. However, unlike Adam Rippon in 2018 where there was the opening for him to compete in the Team event and win a medal and draw lots of special attention to the sport, that is not the case with Jason in 2022. He will not and should not be put in the Team event, especially when a Gold medal is on the line. Without any medal potential, Jason will not draw much media interest. Adam Rippon similarly would have gone "nowhere" in 2018 without the Team medal, the superficial success that society needs to see in order for someone to be lauded.

So, with Jason essentially adding "nothing" to the team, you then compare that to Malinin, someone who has put up scores that are actually competitive for a medal, and someone who looks like they can soon become the next dominant guy in the sport. His chances of medaling are definitely not good, given his inexperience, but they are better than Jason's. The experience he would gain is also an investment in the future. With him on the team, you gain something. Something is better than nothing.

 

[karne]

However, unlike Adam Rippon in 2018 where there was the opening for him to compete in the Team event and win a medal and draw lots of special attention to the sport, that is not the case with Jason in 2022. He will not and should not be put in the Team event, especially when a Gold medal is on the line.

And you are wrong.

If, for whatever reason, Nathan does not skate the team event - which he may choose not to do given he is carrying an injury - it is a much, much safer choice for Team USA to have Jason skate the short program.

People talk about ceilings and floors. Jason has a narrower range, but the simple fact that is that he is consistent and his SP can easily rack up a mid-90s score immediately makes him a safer choice than someone who maybe can score 100...if the tech calls go his way...or...just not make the free skate. Which in the team event could be 10th place.

There are not many men in the world who can hit 100 to begin with, and all of them are wildly inconsistent. If Jason skated his normal SP and laid down a 90-96 SP, there's every chance he could finish as high as second. In fact, someone on the other forum ran the numbers, and in some scenarios, he could literally win the team event SP - with the not-quite-perfect skates from the GP, let alone if he was perfect!

Vincent is a safer choice for the free skate, where a disaster free would do less damage (as the lowest he could drop is 5th) and a good free skate could assist properly.

 

[MarkinBerkeley]

I like Ilia a lot, but I do think the right decision was made here, although it was certainly not an easy call. He is going to Worlds and he should be happy about that. As others pointed out, he is unlikely to medal even with clean programs, just like Jason.

 

[MarkinBerkeley]

Gee, have you even watched Sinnerman, Love is a BItch or I Can't Go on Without You? David Wilson, sure

But I am so over revolutions in the air being prioritized as the only facet of figure skating worth evaluating. I am so over not understanding or recognizing what Jason does as so incredibly athletic that other skaters praise him for his athletic skills. As Kurt Browning says, Jason is a skater's skater. Or maybe you're over Kurt Browning too?

Next.

I love quads as much as anyone, but Jason brings the entire package besides quads. I doubt he's going to master the quad, and I think he should just leave it out in Beijing.

 

[lariko]

Again I'm dropping in to mention something slightly off-topic, but @florin has a point - maybe not now, and not in the protective bubble of figure skating fandom, but I can definitely imagine that in the near future if current trends hold, someone with a purely Russian or Chinese name might face obstacles in Western society. The Olympics do indeed draw a more general audience, and the original Cold War may have thawed years ago, but currently North America/Western Europe tensions with Russia/China are the highest in years. Under the CBC article announcing Canada's Olympic skating team, there were some pretty unpleasant comments accusing the athletes of supporting human rights abuses/deserving to be detained overseas (granted, the comments section is usually pretty trashy).

I don't think Ilia has been subject to prejudice (he has American mannerisms and doesn't even speak Russian very well). Just wanted to remind people to be vigilant for the possibility of it happening. When sentiment against a country builds up high enough, it almost inevitably spills over to diaspora (examples: interned Canadians in WWII, anti-Asian hate crimes in early 2020).

It is always a great reminder, but I experienced anti-Russian sentiment stronger 25 years ago than I do now (and I am talking real, to your face insults, not imaginary ones). I live in kinder Canada, can’t vouch for States, but I just don’t think it played a part in this decision. We are just too low on the list of undesirables atm.

 

[Azikin]

Last year, for example, my Russian-German child was assigned in the political simulation in their school to represent Fascist party. My jaw nearly dropped when she told me.

Why did the assignment to represent an Italian political party from the past make your jaw drop?

 

[lariko]

Why did the assignment to represent an Italian political party from the past make your jaw drop?

Because my child's great-granduncles died fighting fascist Germany, her step-grandfather didn't come home at all, and her great-grandfather was jailed by Nazis for opposition to the Party. Given our last name is German, I would have expected less ethnic stereotyping in distributing the roles in Canada with our respect to multiculturalism, if there was some sort of awareness of cultural sensitivities.

 

[sworddance21]

There is no argument here I can make that hasn't already been made. I think the decision made was the correct one, based on the criteria laid out. I am a huge fan of Jason's skating, as anyone who reads the forum refilariorobably can tell. I am looking forward to seeing Ilia's trajectory. I would have been bitterly disappointed had the decision gone the other way, but I would never have vilified Ilia.

That said, I am very tired of people saying Jason's PCS is over rated. It is not. NO ONE skating now can do what he does. We know that Jason can't do what Nathan does. I would like to see any of the top skaters try to skate Sinnerman. In some ways I think if people could see that, it would be instructive of how difficult and athletic what he does is. I just don't think they care to understand.

 

[yume]

But why? He’s skated his best this season under no pressure and completely fallen apart when he’s under pressure.

I think there was pressure at Nebelhorn.
And the pressure at nats was finally not that much. I think skaters know the real weight of nats in olys selection. Close to 0.

 

[macy]

There is no argument here I can make that hasn't already been made. I think the decision made was the correct one, based on the criteria laid out. I am a huge fan of Jason's skating, as anyone who reads the forum refilariorobably can tell. I am looking forward to seeing Ilia's trajectory. I would have been bitterly disappointed had the decision gone the other way, but I would never have vilified Ilia.

That said, I am very tired of people saying Jason's PCS is over rated. It is not. NO ONE skating now can do what he does. We know that Jason can't do what Nathan does. I would like to see any of the top skaters try to skate Sinnerman. In some ways I think if people could see that, it would be instructive of how difficult and athletic what he does is. I just don't think they care to understand.

this is 100000% true across EVERY discipline. literally no other skater can do what jason does. when he retires there will be a giant, giant hole left that nobody else can fill.

 

[lurkz2]

Did you read further about the additional critteria for classification of skaters *within* Group 3? It doesn't sound as if you did, because by my reading Jason prevails over Ilia on that criteria.

What is "robotic" to some is "fair" to others. I don't want the judge making up the law as it suits her, and not following the rules, because they don't want to be "robotic".

The decision was transparent and fair. Now, folks will argue from now until the end of time if the strongest skater was selected. I say yes, others will say no. But that is way different than whether it was transparent.

I don't think it was as cut and dried in favor of Jason as you make it seem, I think it could have gone either way which is why they split the assignments.

Objectively, looking at the criteria you cited:

1. Jason took Worlds 2021 by default but Ilia took Nationals 2022 by a huge margin.

2. Jason takes consistency but his scores are relatively stagnant.

3. Ilia has a lesser body of work but his scores are trending upward.

Sending either Jason or Ilia can be justified using the criteria so I can believe some sort of sentiment or personal opinion was used to separate the two.

 

[yume]

this is 100000% true across EVERY discipline. literally no other skater can do what jason does. when he retires there will be a giant, giant hole left that nobody else can fill.

There is that cute little junior that i've seen in JGP this season and who was like a mini Jason Brown. Curly hair, quadless and 3Aless just like Brown was. But he has nice "artistic" qualities.
I forgot if he's American or no. If yes, he has a chance to land somewhere.

 

[lurkerghost1]

I feel sorry for Lindsay. She doesn't get 4CC because she's stuck as an alternate!

Lindsay will get junior worlds at least. I feel sorry for Calalang/Johnson because they’re the only ones in the top 5 in any discipline to get no assignments assuming Thorngren and Levito to Junior worlds