OK, so I looked it up just to make sure I had the timeline right.
The earliest scale of values document that I kept (ISU Communications #1611) is for the 2010-2011 season. Even Lysacek had just won tyhe Olympic gold medal withpout a quad -- the last time this happened, and probably the last time it will ever happen. The values for Axel jumps were
1A =1.1, 2A=3.3, 3A = 8.5, and 4A =15.0.
These values continued in force up through the 2017/2018 season (ISU COmmunication #2089)
For 2018/2019 (ISU Communication # 2168) these were revised to
1A = 1.1, 2A = 3.3,
2A = 8.0 and
4A = 12.5,
where they remain today for 2023/2024.
I think that this supports the view of 4everchan and other posters who raised the videa that up until the 2018 the ISU had no particular reason to re-evaluate the 4A because no one could do it anyway.
But then Yuzuru Hanyu came along and started talking about the possibility (in retrospect, even the inevability) of this jump. Plus, Hanyu had such perfect classic 3A technique that people started to say, yeah, he can do it -- or if not, then the next guy for sure. (Well, the next guy was Nathan Chen whose 3A was no his most impressive jump, but still...)
However, I do not believe that the ISU had any thought of conspiring to hold Hanyu back as an individual. For one thing, the powerful and influential Japanese Skating Association would have something to say about that. Though not perhaps a traditional skating power like Austria or Norway, they did hold, in 2018 and still today, the power of the purse strings (in the 1990s USA had been Mr. Moneybags, but no more.) Plus, Hanyu was the ISU's number one international box office draw -- they had no interest in cutting off their nose to spite their face.
I think that we must consider that the Base Value of all quadruple jumps was lowered in 2018. With this in mind, the Triple Axel change of value was coherent. The global quads-and-3A lowering value may (or may not) have had to do with the GOE going from +3/-3 to +5/-5, which would give so much weight to a (supposedly) perfect jump. The 3A's value was lowered in line with Quadruple jumps.
But the 4A, which at 15 was already statistically low, was further lowered to only one point over the 4Lz, while 4Lz was already jumped by several skaters. I don't know how ISU officials assessed the probability of Yuzuru Hanyu's landing a 4A soon, but his fans were quite optimistic that it wouldn't be long before he could.
Yuzuru Hanyu has never been supported by his Federation. Jason Brown hasn't been much supported either, but as early as Sochi, Yuzuru Hanyu had the dominant faction in his federation AGAINST him; mostly, seemingly, because he had dared to supplant a favourite skater (who was more a victim than anything, but that's another story). It didn't wane in time, it only became worse when Shoma Uno appeared. The narrative was, that Yuzuru Hanyu was "finished" and would be replaced by Shoma Uno, whose background made more compliant too. (And, anyway, mediocrity when they "take the big head", hate excellence and genius.) He was a milk cow for Japanese Skating Federation, but it seems that it only worsened things in their distorted minds? Having read very little, I have youth literature in mind, his relationship with the Japanese Federation best makes me think of that of A Little Princess' Sarah Crewe with Miss Minchin, the school owner who can't bear that Sarah is so clever, so kind, and speaks French so well (I won't pretend that Yuzuru Hanyu speaks English very well, but he's skating like a "native"), AND that, while being perfectly respectful and obedient (it worsens things too, in some ways), she's clearly not afraid of Miss Minchin's position and threats, she obeys freely, out of well considered duty, depriving Miss Minchin of the pleasure of inspiring terror. Sorry for this digression.
I'll give you an example, Judge M from the faction of the protector/abuser of the favourite skater. She was the referee at Japan Nationals 2020, inventing an invalid sit spin while it was in fact Level 3. (There was maybe a cruelty in the choice of the hit, as Yuzuru Hanyu's pretended rival had a "consistent" invalid (in Short Program) or V (in Free Skating) sit spin, never called, a 7-8 points "candy" overall, at every competition.) There was an uproar, fans went to the point of wondering if the Technical Panel hadn't mistaken his sit twizzle for a sit spin, and the Japanese federation issued a statement, that the spin had been declared invalid because there hadn't been 2 turns in the basic position, while video evidence showed well that he had held it about 2¾ turns; and while several other skaters had rotated less than 2 turns, without a call.
Where was this Judge M a 2019 GPF Robbery? Yes, she was a judge in Men's. Who was at her side? Judge W, who had previously been suspended two years for having copied marks from his then neighbour Judge E. Who was at Judge W's other side? You guess well, Judge E... That's just an example, one of those the public can see.
Somehow, Japanese Skating Federation has systematically made the choice of throwing Yuzuru Hanyu under the bus, in order to get lower medals (with overscoring; because there are federations who must also "buy" deserved medals) for "favourites". Men favourites, because Japanese Women were by no way supported in scores, and by then they had no Pairs or Ice Dancers among top skaters.
I know that it's hard to believe that a federation has the skater of the century and tries everything to crush him instead of "capitalising" on him, but it's the sad truth. You know, it's not their own money, but it's their own power/ego struggles, and I believe that it's not very different globally for ISU. That they don't care for the future of Figure Skating or ISU, just for their present personal power/ego, sometimes with financial advantages such as paid positions in their federation. I don't know if it has always been the same, because there has been a period with less of it, and more care for the common good? But maybe it was an island, or just the fact that there was more balance between federations?
