Why is the quad Axel so undervalued?

[skatingguy]

May I recall that Yuzuru Hanyu had stated his objective of landing a 4A as early as 2007, that it was known that he was practising it way before PyeongChang, and that in that very 2016-2017 season he had just as clearly become the marked man in Men Figure Skating?
That's why there's a suspicion. Meanwhile, he wasn't at all in a good place because he saw the growth of discrepancies between his scoring and others'. It worsened after PyeongChang of course.

I don't see any reason that officials in the ISU, and in the skating federations around the world, who ultimately make the decision, would be aware of which skaters were practicing a particular jump at any given time.

 

[TallyT]

Let's assume that we would stay at the previous BV for 4A, i.e. 15. With the new GOE scale, a perfect jump would get 22.5 points. I don't know if you remember when Samarin landed 4Lz+3T and thus became the record holder for the highest TES of a jumping element after the introduction of the new BV and GOE. It was 21.12 (and now Ilia probably holds the record, for 4Lz+3S seq). Then I thought: he got more points for one jump element than for all non-jump elements combined, i.e. 3 spins, StSq and ChSq. Well, Samarin wasn't known as an all-round skater, so I checked: at the Olympics in Seoul, the highest collective TES for these 5 elements was 21.8 (which Yuzuru got with 18 max GOE). At last Worlds Shoma got 24.53 TES (16 max GOE), a bit more, but it's still only 2 points more (for 5 elements!) than for 4A with the former BV and new GOE.
If BV for jumps remained so high, how could skaters be encouraged to work on non-jumping elements?

So the answer is simple. Reduce the value of the other jumps.

Yep, all of them.

And up the penalties (and insist the judges bring them ton-of-bricks style) for faults - prerotation, flutzing, bad edges, the lot. Make the skaters work for the big scores on the jumps, make a high-scoring jump special because it was great not just because it was (well, sort of) done.

There you are folks, problem solved.

 

[YuBluByMe]

So the answer is simple. Reduce the vale of the other jumps.

Actually, no, lowering the value of jumps isn’t the answer. (And it’s already been done). Correctly penalizing faulty jumps can be done without lowering a jump’s base value. Increasing the value of non-jump elements can be done without lowering a jump’s base value. Giving greater weight to PCS, choreography, spins, and steps sequences can be done without a handicap on the technical mark. Wiping out the advantage such skaters have while pumping up the other aspects of the sport isn’t the answer. Because that wouldn’t be balanced either.

With that being said, such changes will change very little if anything at all. Because the problem is not the system, but the way it is applied. There can be greater PCS factoring and step sequences and level four spins can be worth the same as a 4T and a competition’s end result will not change.

If a skater can’t win now under the current black-and white, then he’s still not going to win even under a new set of rules. Fudging the numbers isn’t going to change that because there’s a greater reason while PCS Skater A is losing to TES Skater B.

 

[Mathman]

So the answer is simple. Reduce the value of the other jumps.

Yep, all of them.

Especially that doggone single toe. Imagine, 0.40 points for a jump that iin reality should not be worth more than 0.375.

 

[Mathman]

Yes, the ISU issues an updated list every year, and when changes are made. The changes to the value of the quadruple jumps came into affect for the 2018/2019 season, but they were announced well before that.

My understanding of how the procedure works is that the ISU Technical Committee continuously reviews the scale of values and other rules and every couple a years floats a proposal recommending changes. These are circulated to the ISU memnership amd other interested parties. Then at the next general congress the propsal is voted on. For the most part, changes like "let's change the 4A from 15.0 to 12.5" are rubberstamped by the membership without dissent and become official.

In the case of a big deal like the proposal to award separate medals for a technical program and for an artistic program, I think that this is more along the lines of vague musings, let's send up a trial ballonnon and see if anyone has any thoughts to share. Evidently in this instance nobody did, and the proposal blew away on the winds without any formal resolution being presented for a vote.

 

[Mathman]

I don't think that the scoring changed in 1996-97 so much as that the perception that it would be necessary to win medals, or for younger skaters still aiming to make a name for themselves to stand out from the pack as potential medalists, because there were enough other skaters who were landing them.

That is certainly descriptive of the whole ordinal period. After all, you can't affect results by manipulating numbers if there are no numbers to manipulate. But yes,the whole history of figure skating has progressed by this leap-frog principal. Once Carol Haeiss did a double Axel. then everyone had to do a double Axel if she wanted to bethe next Carol Heiss.

 

[eppen]

I don't think that the scoring changed in 1996-97 so much as that the perception that it would be necessary to win medals, or for younger skaters still aiming to make a name for themselves to stand out from the pack as potential medalists, because there were enough other skaters who were landing them.

Stojko had been chasing the 4T+3T for a few years and finally succeeded at the 1997 Champions Series Final, along with Kulik landing his first clean quad and Urmanov his first in five years (also his last). Guo landed two 4T at Worlds that year. But Eldredge, for example, was still able to do pretty well for himself without one.

So most skaters who had already been attempting quads in practice started getting more serious about putting them out in competition. And others started practicing even if they had previously felt they could score just as well without one.

The big change in the scoring came in the 1999 season, when quads were first allowed in the short program (but only as the solo jump out of steps -- the preceding steps requirement probably kept some skaters from trying it there who were otherwise capable), and then a couple years later either as the solo jump or in the combination.

Good points, but I have to disagree. And the reason for that is the number of pops that came about in the 1996-7 season... Almost more in one season compared to total of pops from 1983 to 1996 spring. So skaters were readier to fail the attempts and for that I think there had to be some kind of a change with how the failed attempts were regarded. I have also wondered whether it was partly rumours of and seeing the next generation coming up with good quads - the Chinese in particular.

The quad in the short took one season to become part of the most common layout: in 1998-9 season 0+1-2 was attempted 43 times and 1+1-2 12 times. The next season the totals were just about reversed and stayed that way.

But by that time, the very end of the millennium, the process had already begun and was well on its way and the change started in the 1996-7 season.

I have (yet) no way of proving that there was an ISU push for it, but I hope to find out more someday. It is possible that it was just somehow "in the air" but it was a very unanimous decision by skaters living and training in different parts of the world and before a very effective internet and social media spreading info on results and trainings...

 

[Mathman]

Good points, but I have to disagree. And the reason for that is the number of pops that came about in the 1996-7 season...

This was before the code of points judging system, so the ISU, wehatever its hopes for the future of the sport, could not simply lower the penalties for falls, etc. Is it your view that even so, the ISU behind closed doors undertook to instruct judges to give higer placements to skaters who tried to push the technical enverlope, even though they oiften failed?

 

[4everchan]

This was before the code of points judging system, so the ISU, wehatever its hopes for the future of the sport, could not simply lower the penalties for falls, etc. Is it your view that even so, the ISU behind closed doors undertook to instruct judges to give higer placements to skaters who tried to push the technical enverlope, even though they oiften failed?

Well... i vaguely remember the excitement from both commentators and judges during the 6.0 era when someone would land a big trick. The technical score would jump way high.... but not for failed attempts.

 

[eppen]

This was before the code of points judging system, so the ISU, wehatever its hopes for the future of the sport, could not simply lower the penalties for falls, etc. Is it your view that even so, the ISU behind closed doors undertook to instruct judges to give higer placements to skaters who tried to push the technical enverlope, even though they oiften failed?

Good question... There was an ISU Congress in the summer of 1996 and from some notes, it seems that changes in the scoring system were discussed (see the Skate Guard blog on the congress: https://skateguard1.blogspot.com/2016/04/the-1996-isu-biennal-congress.html). As far as I know, nothing was decided, but my feeling is SOMETHING happened, I just don't know what it was.

This comes from just looking at the numbers...

1982-3 to 1995-6 (13 seasons!), on av. 5 attempts & 1 pop per season by av. 3 skaters per season
(13 attempts for 1991-2 was the highest ever, most pops 2 per season. The total number of pops before 1996-7 iss 14 . Most skaters 6 for 1990-1 and 1991-2.)

1996-7: 20 attempts & 11 pops by 9 skaters.
1997-8: 46 attempts & 6 pops by 13 skaters.
1998-9: 79 attempts & 10 pops by 20 skaters.

This is also the period when the information has been most difficult to get. In the absence of the protocols and detailed score sheets, you have to rely on videos, media and fan reports. So, the actual numbers particularly for pops might be slightly higher than what I have been able to find. It was not only a handful of top skaters who tried quads, but also others who did not get into broadcasts etc.

The quad had been around for more than a decade by the summer of 1996 and it had really not been going anywhere in that time. I think the kind of organic development took place in the 1980s when the first attempts were made, but by 1996, a quad was kind of already a part of the repertoire. It just was really not worth attempting because the bad attempts were not regarded very highly. Orser has talked about it in the 1980s contexts and things did not change considerably in the early 1990s. So I keep thinking that the ISU in some way started to push it.

It is also possible that Guo Zhengxin coming out the previous season with at least two good quads - one in combo - might have been enough to get other trying harder. Takeshi Honda was also a possible motivation. This kind of proactive move by Hanyu seeing Boyang Jin doing 4Lzs caused the 2015-18 quad wars, but in 1996 information was not as readily available as it was in 2015.

But the number of pops makes me wonder the most. It had not really happened commonly before, but suddenly most of the 9 skaters attempting quads were also popping them. Both old and new quadsters.

It is also interesting to note that the early IJS took away this encouragement of risk taking for almost a decade. Then in 2010, the ISU changed the scoring system radically to favor doing quads and take risks. As if Plushenko's moaning after the 2010 Olys had been heard and the bigwigs decided that he was right, the sport part of figure skating needed to be propped. It took some time before those changes really started to get seen in competitions - the guys who started in the 2000s did not have the goods and it was necessary to wait for the new generations to emerge with multiple quad types.

 

[eppen]

There has been the thought in the Russians threads that the 4Lo gets attempted more often by Russian men - indeed they like to go for it. Why is not so clear. The 4Lz is also popular. Hardly anybody does the 4F. Does that mean the 4F is more difficult? Maybe. There is almost nobody who is able to jump it with clean technique. But then I would think that's also because if you train for either 4Lz or 4F and they are roughly equally difficult, you will go for Lz because it's worth slightly more. So maybe they are just equally difficult? As a non-top skater, ehem, I can't say.
Could also be that the 4Lz is, in theory, more difficult, but, for those who are already extremely good at high rotation, it's easier.
Could be that certain coaching techniques favour certain jumps while the jump itself is not harder or easier in general.

The 4F was attempted more than the 4Lo until the 2021-22 season, but for whatever reason the 4Lo has become the more popular choice.

2020-1
4F: 42 attempts, 12 skaters, 3 Russians, 16 attempts (Mozalev, Shcherbakova, Trusova)
4Lo: 28 attempts, 8 skaters, 4 Russians, 14 attempts (Ignatov, Samodelkina, KSarnovskiy, Semenenko)

2021-2
4F: 55 attempts, 12 skaters, 6 Russians, 15 attempts, (Lazarev, Samarin, Shcherbakova, Shesternev, Trusova, Zavodskikh)
4Lo: 61 attemps, 15 skaters, 8 Russians, 37 attempts (Anisimov, Erokhov, Gumennik, Ignatov, Morozova, Petrosyan, Prineva, Yablokov)

2022-3
4F: 35 attempts, 10 skaters, 4 Russians, 10 attempts (Anisimov, Petrosyan, Prineva, Ugozhaev)
4Lo: 71 attempts, 14 skaters, 8 Russians, 38 attempts (Anisimov, Erokhov, Gumennik, Ignatov, Lutfullin, Petrosyan, Rubtsova, Yablokov)

2023-4 fall
4F: 31 attempts, 10 skaters, 5 Russians, 10 attempts (Anisimov, Fedorov, Petrosyan, Popov, Ugozhaev)
4Lo: 48 attempts, 15 skaters, 7 Russians, 33 attempts (Gumennik, Ignatov, Lutfullin, Semenenko, Vetlugin, Yablokov, Zonov)

Interestingly enough, there are no huge changes in percentages of Russians and their attempts. Maybe a little higher with the 4Lo this fall, but remains to be seen what the numbers are at the end of the season.

I don't think the popularity of the 4Lz can be explained by its high BV - I mean, you also have to think about the negative effects. It is more likely to get a low score for almost any quad and for many, the triple could bring in more points as they might be more consistent.

Think of say Jason Brown or Rion Sumiyoshi who kept/keep on trying quads and getting < and << on a regular basis, the point score they get is lower than what they would get for the triple. Rion's average score for her 15 bad 4T attempts is 3,56 which is lower than the BV for a 3T. The same applies to bad 4Lz attempts.

There are a number of not that great jumpers who have kept on/are doing the 4Lz, sometimes even as their main jump. Say Larry Loupolover or among the current Russian novice girls Alena Prineva. Or even Daniel Grassl who has dabbled with 4Lo, 4F and 4Lz but has never even tried the easier ones. And even Anna Shcherbakova whose triples made me always feel amazed that she could actually do a relatively good quad.

4Lz is also the most common third quad to conquer for quadsters with multiple quad types (like Nathan or Ilia). Ilia even got the 4A down before he attempted the 4Lo...

ADD: 55 skaters have attempted 3 or more different quads in competition and this is what the jumps are and with which they have gotten 0,00 or positive GOEs:

	4T	4S	4Lo	4F	4Lz	4A
Attempted	51	46	28	23	35	3
GOE+	49	39	18	12	25	1
Success%	96,1	84,8	64,3	52,2	71,4	33,3

The motivations for attempting jumps when you're not necessarily as good at it as Nathan, Yuzuru or Ilia, are various. I particularly loved Nikolaj Memola's reasoning for choosing the 4Lz over the 4T - he is very tall and so the Lutz looks better for him than the 4T! Grassl said (IIRC) that he thought the 4T and 4S were too easy. The glory of getting it right once is also a possibility - think of eg Brandon Mroz who somehow nabbed the first landed 4Lz when otherwise his track record with 41 quads is not that great (he only got positive GOE for 8 4Ts in addition to that 4Lz).

 

[Mathman]

Good question... There was an ISU Congress in the summer of 1996 and from some notes, it seems that changes in the scoring system were discussed (see the Skate Guard blog on the congress: https://skateguard1.blogspot.com/2016/04/the-1996-isu-biennal-congress.html). As far as I know, nothing was decided, but my feeling is SOMETHING happened, I just don't know what it was.

Thanks a million for all the data that you have kept track of.

Something still seems strange to me. It is hard for me to imagine Ottavio Cinquanta and his buddies sitting around in 1996 saying, "what fans of figure skating really want to see is more skaters falling on quads."

I can, in fact, more easily ensvision myriad sports fans the world over watching the 2014 and 2018 Olympics men's competition and saying to themselves, "This is the Olympic champion?! He fell om his butt! What kind of a fake sport is this, anyway?

 

[Mathman]

There is also the Second Mark phenomenon. Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee. Who does more to advance the fortunes of figure skating as an Olympic sport, the floaters or the stingers?

In 1998 Michelle Kwan's coaching team felt compelled to switch out Michelle's solo 3T jn the short program for a 3F. The 3F was never the most reliable jump for Michelle, but what are you going to do? All the othjer girls were uprading to a 3F, so Michelle had to keep pace.

The resulting Rachmaninov program was lauded to the heavens -- not for the triple flip but for the choreography and presentation -- the sheer Kwanliness of it all -- and brought her seven 6.0s (out of 9) on the second mark at U.S. Nationals. Dick Button loved it.

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[gkelly]

in 1996 information was not as readily available as it was in 2015.

That is certainly true. Fans had to rely on videos (i.e., broadcasts), media, and fan reports, as you say.

The skaters themselves had access to much of that (maybe not so much the fan reports) but also had additional sources of information:

At competitions (including those that were not broadcast), they could not only see what their competitors were doing in their competition programs and warmups, but also what they were trying in practice sessions especially on the off day between short and long program, if there was one.

Attempting cutting edge content in practice even with no intention to try it that week in competition was definitely a way to make a statement both to fellow competitors and also to judges, who typically watched practices so they'd know what to look for during competition. Especially before they had video replay -- and still no tech panel.

If Skater A didn't happen to see Skater B attempting a quad or other rare content (e.g., 3A+3Lo, or even 3A+3T which was the go-to short program combination for medal contenders at the time but not all medal hopefuls had mastered it yet) because Skater A was busy focusing on his own practices, chances are his coach or another member of his team did catch it. Even at a competition where A wasn't present, A's coach might have been there with a different student.

And of course for skaters who trained with the same coach or at the same rink as any of their competitors, they could keep track of what the competitors were up to on more of a daily basis.

And officials would also have been aware of what skaters were putting out for public view during competition practices. There was likely buzz going around the judging ranks as well as among the skaters.

So does that mean that judges were consciously or unconsciously adjusting their expectations/evaluations of specific skaters according to what they were showing off in practice sessions? Or that the ISU technical committee was noting how many skaters were showing quads as works in progress and advising judging panels to reward successful quads whenever they saw them?

Maybe, maybe not.

It could also just be that many skaters were aware of how many of their competitors were on the quad train and figured they'd better get on board as well or else risk being left behind.

 

[DizzyFrenchie]

I can, in fact, more easily ensvision myriad sports fans the world over watching the 2014 and 2018 Olympics men's competition and saying to themselves, "This is the Olympic champion?! He fell om his butt! What kind of a fake sport is this, anyway?

Are you serious or joking?
In 2014 Yuzuru Hanyu fell in his Free (and was controversially scored on a combination, I say controversially because I wouldn't risk opining on 2014 rules enforcement, I just read many protests) but he was the celebrated extraterrestrial being who had managed to skate this:

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In 2018 he didn't fall at all! He saved jumps in his Free but it was so wonderful, enthralling that it's still the most viewed of any of his skates, and the (close) second most viewed program in the history of Figure Skating, with 33 million views, after Aljona Savchenko & Bruno Massot's Free Skating at the same Olympic Games (his Sochi Short Program being also a hit in Youtube views):

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[4everchan]

If the ISU wanted to punish bad quads, they could just impose a minus 2 penalty for falls on quads.... I'd support it

 

[Mathman]

Are you serious or joking?

I wasn't joking, but I was trying to look at the sport from the point of view of the general sports enthusiast rather than that of the fan who already knows something about, and cares something about, figure skating.

If a pole vaulter attempt 6 meters but knocks the bar off, he may receive polite applause for the attempt. But he'd better enjoy it, because (as they say at rodeos when the rider falls off his horse), that's the only prize this cowboy is going to get today.

Hanyu's LP from Sochi may heve been watched on youutube millions of times, but the performance itself was only so-so by Hnayu's high standards, and in fact he lost the LP to Nathan Chen, I can easily imagine a casual viewer turning in just for the LP and come away scratching his head --" what's going on, here? The other guy was better -- all those whachmacallits -- quads?" The commentator would have to explain, well Chen fell twice in the short program, so of course he couldn't win the gold medal overall. That wouldn't be fair.

 

[Mathman]

It could also just be that many skaters were aware of how many of their competitors were on the quad train and figured they'd better get on board as well or else risk being left behind.

I always had the impression that, at least at the lower levels, there is all kind of buzz and scuttlebutt form parents: "Did you hear? Susie Jones over at Lake Arrowhead got her double Sal last weekend! I am going to talk to my daughter's coach right away and see what he intends to do about it!"

 

[4everchan]

I always had the impression that, at least at the lower levels, there is all kind of buzz and scuttlebutt form parents: "Did you hear? Susie Jones over at Lake Arrowhead got her double Sal last weekend! I am going to talk to my daughter's coach right away and see what he's going to do about it!"

Still happens everywhere in all fields... Some of my kids were called "aliens" ( I almost fell off my chair thinking about some fans calling some skaters that same word... ) at the recent concert because they play way harder stuff than most kids their age.... Some parents of other kids were trying to make me say that they are specially talented and have unique predispositions... I told them the absolute truth : 95% of it is dedicated, regular and rigorous work (and good coaching ) Now a lot of the other kids and parents were asking me : so can my son play such and such piece next semester... It's everywhere. How is Susie Jones's double axel - because I heard that Mimi Smith from Lynx Valley got hers last week ?

 

[DizzyFrenchie]

I wasn't joking, but I was trying to look at the sport from the point of view of the general sports enthusiast rather than that of the fan who already knows something about, and cares something about, figure skating.

If a a pole vaulter attempt 6 meters but knocks the bar off, he may receive polite applause for the attempt. But he'd better enjoy it, because (as they say at rodeos when the rider falls off his horse), that's the only prize all this cowboy is going to get today.

Hanyu's LP from Sochi may hev been watched on youutube millions of times, but the performance itself was only so-so by Hnayu's high standards, and in fact he lost the LP to Nathan Chen, I can easily imagine a casual viewer turning in just for the LP and come away scratching his head --" what's going on, here? The other guy was better -- all those whachmacallits -- quads?" The commentator would have to explain, well Chen fell twice in the short program, so of course he couldn't win the gold medal overall. That wouldn't be fair.

If your idea of a winning skate is to stay on one's feet irrespective of the rest, then I do understand your choice, although the 2020-2022 era ought to have made you change your mind? Now, I don't think that it's how most of Olympic viewers saw it, in spite of media insistence. You see, they did watch the champion, and so many loved it that it boosted audiences for the whole sport. Because it was both real athleticism and real entertainment/art (depending on people's interest). You see, IJS rules are good in that even people who don't know the sport, will perceive something of them when they watch a skate. Of course, you can have a wonderful Sasha Cohen with her flat blade skates, or an Anna Shcherbakova's wonderful carriage and musicality just don't watch her feet, who will impress without deserving the highest scores in some domains, but most often good technique is visible, excellent technique too, outstanding too.
That's also why the Beijing artificial podium didn't attract new fans to Figure Skating in general, contrary to the two previous Winter Games, only to Yuzuru Hanyu who had outstanding skates in spite of the falls on the Free (casual fans rarely perceive pops), he had managed to give a meaning to the 4A fall in that day's interpretation of Ten to Chi to! His skates shouted outstanding technique, alas many casual viewers didn't have them because Olympic Channel had an exclusivity and made them unavailable in many countries during months, only showing the medallists... who didn't attract anybody to the sport, I'm afraid.
It's funny, because it's about scores at Beijing that I use the pole vault comparison. It was just as if someone had put a label 6m70 - World Record on a bar that in fact was at 4m20 for one of the athletes, a label 6m20 on a bar at 5m10 for another, a label 5m80 on a bar at 4m30 for another. People did hear and read that the first had fantastic skates, those who didn't watch probably believed it, but those who did watch were unimpressed, without knowing why. Figure Skating lost of its appeal, lost potential public, except those who had seen Yuzuru Hanyu's skates (Jason Brown was excellent, in fact Shoma Uno's and Junhwan Cha's Short Programs too).
In all pole vault competitions every athlete ends up failing to jump a bar, isn't it? How could it be that specifically for one skater, a similar event would make his medal undeserved?
Casual viewers didn't understand precisely that the acclaimed winner was underrotating or cheating a spin or skating on flat edges with low-value transitions, but they did perceive that his jumps and spins were not very light and easy and expressive, that he didn't show great balance, that he kept doing ugly crossovers (without knowing the name of the step), that he didn't have an extraordinary mastery...