Lena would get hosed on components. I'd send Dzepka. I assume they can only send one.
But would senior competition be open to Russians in any case? Even if they qualified through juniors?
I don't think RusFed would ever operate on a prediction that she might recover when there's Kostyleva and Dzepka... she barely broke 200 last season.
Yet possible...
There is no reasons for it to be any other way than 1 spot in 2 events. That's how it showed up on their schedules with the * (if allowed) for the last few years. Given that it's not even a certainty that they will be permitted, hoping that it is anything but minimal number of entries is delusional.
Some fans have a complicated relationship with actual reality.
I believe that once they allow Juniors, they can only upkeep the ban on Seniors for maybe a season or two longer. But even if that's not sure before this season, you kind of have to plan as if it's going to happen, or you'll be the one woefully underprepared if it does happen (though I guess that would be very in line with the Russian fed's philosophy
).Without trying to be depressing, my first thought when I found out that she asked to be taken off the National team list was not that she was trying to switch federations but that she was going to retire completely. And even now, I cannot help but think that that is the plan because it doesn't seem like she has any actual options lined up.
I don't think she would, actually
no reason for her to get a worse score than most of the juniors competing internationally. Anyway, her tech score would ensure she doesn't finish outside of the top 3 when clean.
Well, they'd be fighting to get the full spots for the 27/28 season, so I think the main priority should be who is their best chance of accomplishing that. the ones not chosen could still do challengers and b comps. But yes, it is unfortunate
The JGP events (and JGPF) don't count for anything other than World standing and Season's best scores, so apart from getting used to international competitions and some bragging rights if one of the Russian girls wins the JGPF, there's no direct benefit to sending only one skater instead of two. How many spots a country will have on the JGP circuit and at Jr Worlds the next season is solely dependent on this season's Jr Worlds anyway. If they send two skaters who will be internationally Sr eligible in 2027/28, there's a chance to get three skaters (for example Sofia, Lidia and Sasha Trusova, as a comeback skater) onto the GP circuit in 2027 instead of only two or one.
TBH I don't think "international audiences" necessarily feel that way about Russian skaters, it seems to be a vocal minority. Though it might be true for juniors.I believe that once they allow Juniors, they can only upkeep the ban on Seniors for maybe a season or two longer. But even if that's not sure before this season, you kind of have to plan as if it's going to happen, or you'll be the one woefully underprepared if it does happen (though I guess that would be very in line with the Russian fed's philosophy
And honestly, I would find it kind of unfair if two JGP spots (+JGPF and possibly Jr Worlds) went to only one of the three top contenders when their results from last season don't justify it.
Lena won Jr Nationals but was beaten by Lidia earlier in the season, and is the skater that most exemplifies what international audiences think of Russian skaters (technically very skilled, but bad programs and bad political attachments). Sofia finished off the podium at Jr Nats but beat Lidia at the JRGP final and is an ethereal skater who would likely appeal to international judges and audiences (not unlike baby Sofia Muravieva did in 2021). Lidia placed second at both Jr Nationals and the JRGP final and is a well-rounded skater, plus her coaches have other skaters on the JGP circuit currently (Stefania Gladki and Sofia Shifrin). Their top scores also aren't that far apart, especially without knowing how international judging will impact them (228, 223 and 218).
Well for what it's worth I personally felt zero indication Muravieva is eyeing any sort of retirement. I think there were trustworthy reports she was kicked out by Mishin over a disagreement on her wanting to transfer. Another problem is it was Plushenko who kicked her out of his camp as well (we don't know why) so I'm sure her reputation in Russia is not amazing (also kicked out of TeamTut before, don't know why (in general it seems to me her mom might be in the spirit of Kostyleva's)). I agree this is a disaster as she seems to have few options. Could she go to Fedchenko or something? Moiseeva?Without trying to be depressing, my first thought when I found out that she asked to be taken off the National team list was not that she was trying to switch federations but that she was going to retire completely. And even now, I cannot help but think that that is the plan because it doesn't seem like she has any actual options lined up.
She's still in Russia and some of the countries that may have been willing to give out passports to unconnected athletes in the past have already publicly said that they aren't interested like Georgia or seem to have their hands full with other new arrivals like Azerbaijan. Unless she relocates to another country soon or has something secret lined up based on her family history, I am resigned to not seeing her skate in competitions again.
In full transparency, I believe she should have tried to switch sooner. I would have loved to see her on international ice more than twice. Maybe I'm wrong, and I'll get to see her again on international ice for a different country, and nothing would make me happier, but I've not been in a very hopeful mood in general lately.
TBF when I think of it more Kostyleva is ultimately the option. She is the it girl. I imagine Dzepka will stabilize this season but she did fall a lot last year. I think they should play for next season though and forget about JGPF. Play the long game.I don't think she would, actually
So do junior results grant senior places as well for the subsequent season?
I'm sure there would be a lot of countries that would gladly take her if she moved to the country in question but otherwise... Skaters need residency or citizenship, and foreign citizenship seems unlikely at this point. There are only so many countries that are willing to hand out passports to unrelated athletes, especially when they haven't competed internationally in so long, and some of them have already declined. Lots of Russians have non-Russian ancestry and chose to represent those countries, but I feel like we would have heard about it, if that was also the case for Sofia.
Yes. The JGPF winner and the Jr Worlds medalists are considered in the Grand Prix selections (with the Jr Worlds champion almost always given two GP spots if eligible), and if a Junior places in the top 24 on the Season's best and/or World standing lists, they are guaranteed a GP spot just as any Senior skater would be.
Sikharulidze told media that he had not heard that Sofia could have citizenship of another country.
What do you think about this whole ordeal then? Did she make a mistake? Or could it be that she really wasn't trying to transfer and just wants to retire after all?
I think that if she wanted to retire, she would just do it.
The biggest problem though about her using this time for this or that, is that she doesn't have a coach. What is she supposed to do about this? My biggest hope is for her to just change her mind and skate domestically this season. I hope she realizes this was a mistake. It's not too late to change her mind. She will easily qualify through stages anyways, she doesn't need the national team. But she still needs a coach. I think falling out with Mishin was a serious mistake.
Which countries would those be? I can't think of one that's plausible. Uzbekistan, Serbia, Hungary or Bulgaria? The Baltics are strictly anti-Russian and will not take a Russian skater. There's also still the problem of her not having a coach. It seems she has absolutely nowhere to go.
Just posted about her in pairs thread. Her partner is Petr Alekseenko, who for the last four seasons skated every time with different partner.
