Prediction Thread for Trophée Eric 2009

[museksk8r]

Ladies:
1. Yu-Na Kim
2. Mao Asada
3. Yukari Nakano
4. Caroline Zhang
5. Carolina Kostner
6. Sasha Cohen
7. Alexe Gilles
8. Elene Gedevanishvili
9. Kiira Korpi
10. Gwendoline Didier

Men:
1. Brian Joubert
2. Nobunari Oda
3. Tomas Verner
4. Adam Rippon
5. Yannick Ponsero
6. Alban Preaubert
7. Vaughn Chipeur
8. Sergei Voronov
9. Ryan Bradley
10. Javier Fernandez
11. Chao Yang
12. Peter Liebers

Pairs:
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
2. Mukhortova/Trankov
3. Dube/Davison

Dance:
1. Virtue/Moir
2. Pechalat/Bourzat
3. Kerr/Kerr

 

[PolymerBob]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Men and dance, I'd say you are right on. I don't know too much about pairs. As for the ladies, I agree that the Europeans are still faltering. Most of us have Mao, Yu-Na and Yukari on top, with some of us picking Sasha. I still think the podium will be Mao, Yu-Na and Caroline.

 

[R.D.]

1. Yu-Na Kim
2. Mao Asada
3. Yukari Nakano
4. Caroline Zhang
5. Carolina Kostner

It does seem that the top 5 will be those skaters in a randomized order, assuming they can make it.

 

[museksk8r]

Most of us have Mao, Yu-Na and Yukari on top, with some of us picking Sasha. I still think the podium will be Mao, Yu-Na and Caroline.

JMO, but I think Caroline can only beat Yukari if Nakano is injured, ill, or skates badly. Yukari should deservedly beat Caroline on the PCS mark easily, but Nakano has to be careful about her under-rotation problems. She jumps bigger, skates faster, skates with better edges, and skates with more expression and personality than Caroline. She has also finished top 5 in the senior World Championships 3 years while Zhang has never competed in a senior World Champiopnship. Hopefully, for Yukari, she has seriously addressed her under-rotation issue during her off season. Who knows how Caroline Zhang's growth spurt will affect her jumps?

 

[PolymerBob]

The big question mark will be the European ladies. They struggled badly last season. If they don't make improvements over the summer, they will not be a factor in the Grand Prix. As for Sasha, nobody knows anything at this point.

 

[pokky_oc]

OT, but I hope "pocky_oc" is pronounced, "pokie-okie." That would be cool.

hehe! that's a good one! from now on, it's pronounced pokie-okie! thanks!

 

[pokky_oc]

I guess you are rooting for Asada, but let's try not to express support by denouncing other skaters' effort. IMHO, it is vastly unfair to claim in a negative way that Yu-Na "does not take risk or challenge." She does not change her jumping passages because she does not have to; why on earth would a skater spend her energy and resources in changing something that perfectly works for her, while she can use the resources to focus on other important elements, like improving the overall program quality and artistic expression? In fact, her PCS throughout last season clearly shows where her focus has been. Besides, I think she has been challenging herself quite enough by taking very different programs every season since she started competing in the senior circuit. Asada is a good skater, and I hope both have great competitions next season for us.

Hmm... I am a Mao fan but sorry about my last posts! Yu-Na is slightly changing her jumps according to one of the news reports! probably do 3Lz + 3T and 2A + 2T + 2Lo instead of 3Lz + 2T + 2Lo and 2A + 3T to avoid under-rotation! And I think Yu-Na should replace one of her three 2As to 3F! It looks like it's an easy jump for her!

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2009/07/01/2009070100481.html

Kim is reportedly happy with the selection. According to IB Sports, there may be some changes on the technical side, such as jump content, from last year. IB Sports said the new programs can be showcased in the first competition of the season, at the Troph?e Eric Bompard, the first Grand Prix Series event, from Oct. 16 to 19 in Paris.

According to the news reports, Mao is putting 3A, 3A + 2T and 3F + 3Lo in her FS! She's working on 3F + 3Lo, trying to get it rotated!

 

[Tinymavy15]

According to the news reports, Mao is putting 3A, 3A + 2T and 3F + 3Lo in her FS! She's working on 3F + 3Lo, trying to get it rotated!

I really hope she can pull that off. She needs a 3/3 period. Last year she did not even try them in the free, nor did she try the lutz leaving her dependent on two triple axels.

I think she should use the 3 axel in short, to really set her apart from everybody else and I will keep every finger crossed that she can actually land the above passes in vancover.

 

[wonderlen3000]

I'm surprise Mao didn't repeat the 3Loop jump. She should do a solo 3Loop and 3Lo+2Lo combination as this jump get the most +GOE the past two season. Not to mention one extra point than doing a solo 3T jump.

 

[Rhyme]

My prediction ...

Men
1. Brian Joubert
2. Nubunari Oda
3. Adam Rippon

Ladies
1. Yu-Na Kim
2. Caroline Zhang
3. Mao Asada

Dance
1. Virtue / Moir
2. Pechalat / Bourzat
3. Kerr / Kerr

Pairs
1. Savchenko / Szolkowy
2. Dubé / Davison
3. Mukhortova / Trankov

 

[allska]

probably do 3Lz + 3T and 2A + 2T + 2Lo instead of 3Lz + 2T + 2Lo and 2A + 2T to avoid under-rotation!

I think you did a typing error or you don't know the layout of the jump for Yuna.
She never jumped 2A + 2T, but actually 2A + 3T.

And I think Yu-Na should replace one of her three 2As to 3F!

It is impossible to do, because it is against the Zayak Rule.

 

[dkyoun]

2A + 2T + 2Lo instead of 2A + 2T to avoid under-rotation!

Hmm… 2A + 2T? Maybe 2A + 3T.

Under-rotation ?
Since her senior debut, Yu-Na attempted Triple Toe exactly 36 times in 13 competitions.

And the results have been amazing.

Just one UR at Skate Canada in 2006 and consistency is about 97.2 %.

Pokky_oc, If you find any profit clue on your comments, I will present my IAS 2009 ticket to you. It's SR seat and amount about 15,000 Yen.
Good luck

---------------------------------------------------------
Back to the topic. My prediction is

Ladies
1. Yu-Na Kim
2. Sasha Cohen or Caroline Zhang
3. Mao Asada or Carolina Kostner

Men
1. Brian Joubert
2. Nubunari Oda
3. Adam Rippon

Pairs
1. S&S
2. D&D
3. M&T

First of all, I wish all the skaters do their best and next the scores or standings come!
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[Joesitz (RIP)]

I think we need a thread on "Result Hopes" as well as "Result Predictions". Otherwise we will be bombarded with personal favorites.

 

[MikiAndoFan#1]

Ladies

1. Mao Asada
2. Yu-Na Kim
3. Yukari Nakano (or maybe Carolina, Caroline, Elene and Sasha :scratch

 

[R.D.]

Ladies

1. Mao Asada
2. Yu-Na Kim
3. Yukari Nakano (or maybe Carolina, Caroline, Elene and Sasha :scratch

ha, I just got this image of all five of them crowded on that third podium step :chorus:

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Analyzing Sasha

One must not forget that Sasha almost won the 2006 Olympics. She then made a mess of herself at Worlds 2006.

How will the judges think of her subliminally if she skates a clean LP ?

I actually expect a podium finish and a wait and see if a clean skate will get her gold.

 

[R.D.]

One must not forget that Sasha almost won the 2006 Olympics.

almost WON??

no, no, no. She was strong in the short but was in a virtual tie with two other skaters. Then, due to her warmup mishaps, she was dead in the water long before it began. Still, it could have been much worse.

I actually expect a podium finish and a wait and see if a clean skate will get her gold.

I will keep expectations for her low, and focus my attention on the other Americans. Given her being gone for three years, any kind of a medal finish would be IMO

 

[PolymerBob]

Ladies
1. Yu-Na Kim
2. Sasha Cohen or Caroline Zhang
3. Mao Asada or Carolina Kostner

I also have Caroline on the podium. But she recently injured her knee. So I hope it gets better in time for next season.

 

[museksk8r]

almost WON??

no, no, no.

Yeah, I don't consider Sasha's 2nd in Torino an "almost win" either. She was a whopping 8 points back from Shizuka Arakawa in 1st place! Carolina Kostner's 2nd place from 2008 Worlds was an "almost win" however . . . she was less than 1 point behind Mao Asada in the final standings.

 

[R.D.]

Carolina Kostner's 2nd place from 2008 Worlds was an "almost win" however . . . she was less than 1 point behind Mao Asada in the final standings.

that would have been a disgrace...honestly. She did not skate that FS well at all. Asada rallied from a scary fall on that 3A attempt to nail the rest of the program.