Caroline Zhang's 2009-10 season

[LeCygne]

Exactly, that was the point. And you never know exactly how much exact differences in the score would've played out had they been judged by the same judges and tech panel. The TEB tech panel seemed quite strict about UR's, and also there's a general trend of giving out higher and higher scores throughout the GP seasons. The first one always seems the stingiest.

Well, as it is, Ashley has a silver and Caroline 4th, so that's a huge difference in terms of GPF qualification. Ashley has her destiny in her own friends, while Caroline's future depends a great deal on others.

Haha okay yeah I'm functioning on literally no sleep these days... Blehh.. But yeah actually Caroline's score would have had her behind Alissa in Russia, so 5th place..

I agree that so far, it's Ashley's to win or lose in terms of GPF qualification. I was just surprised that although it's great for so early in the season, is 108 points really a personal best for Ashley? Seems like Caroline has broken 110 points many times (later in the season of course).

 

[R.D.]

I agree that so far, it's Ashley's to win or lose in terms of GPF qualification. I was just surprised that although it's great for so early in the season, is 108 points really a personal best for Ashley?

I believe so.

I was surprised. By her 2nd place in Russia she has indeed given herself a chance to be in the running for the GPF. I doubt she can win in Japan, but 2nd or 3rd there and she will very well be in the mix. This is a tougher lineup than in Russia, so I don't see her medaling (but hey, I thought maybe at her best she'd be 3rd or 4th in Russia and look what happened! Asada had the worst skate of her career) but nevertheless, it should be a confidence-booster.

 

[feraina]

All Ashley needs is a silver for a lock in GPF, and a bronze for tie breaker. I think we are going to see a lot of silver and bronze for tie breaker and if you are already in 4th at one of the event, that will be really tough to get into final.

Unless of course no body other Miki, Yuna and Joannie has more than two GP medals, then it's anybody game.

Oh, yeah, there's no question that Ashley is in a much better position to qualify for the GPF. If she has silver she guarantees it (since five gold medals almost certainly go to Yu-na, Joannie, and Miki, and maybe one more to Miki, so 2 silvers is the next best anyone can do). If she has bronze she will be in for a tie-breaker.

Who gets the silvers will determine the remaining three places (suppose Miki gets her 2nd gold as the third seed). The thing is, since Mao has a silver and is already out of running with a 5th. There are two not unlikely scenarios that gives Caroline a fighting chance at GPF qualification if she can grab silver at SC. One is if Carolina wins silver at CoC, then another silver is accounted for and she's out of running (with a 6th). That also means that Rachael will have to get silver at SA to qualify (2 bronzes won't cut it).

That means so far 6 golds and 3 silvers accounted for (assuming Rachael gets a silver at SA) and two spots left for the remaining three silver medalists (Ashley from CoR, ? at NHK, and ? at SC). If Sasha wins silver at SA, then there would be three spots left for the three silver medalists of CoR, NHK, and SC.

If Carolina falters at CoC, then Rachael is likely to get silver, and whether she gets silver or not at SA, she will qualify. If she doesn't get silver at SA, Sasha is likely to get it and will not qualify.

Again, that's 3 silvers accounted for and two spots left for the remaining three silver medalists including Ashley so far.

Obviously, if Ashley hits silver again at NHK, then the silver medalist from SC will probably qualify (Caroline?).

The worst scenario is if Yukari beats Ashley for the silver at NHK (and Ashley gets bronze). Then Yukari will qualify, Ashley would still qualify, then even if Caroline wins silver at SC she will become first alternate.

Another total unknown is Mirai. If she beats Rachael and Carolina for silver at CoC, then she would qualify even if she gets beaten by Caroline at SC. But in this scenario, if Rachael settles for bronze behind Sasha at SA, then she will not qualify, and the last two spots come down to the three silver medalists at CoR (Ashley), NHK, and SC. Then Caroline better be hoping again that Ashley gets silver at NHK, and she herself gets the silver at SC.

So, not hopeless, but overall probability of Caroline still having a chance of qualifying for GPF by winning silver at SC is, I believe, about 50%. It all comes down to Carolina, Mirai, and Yukari, who are all a bit unpredictable.

 

[PolymerBob]

Thanks for the detailed analysis. I am sure things will get interesting as the Grand Prix season progresses.

 

[feraina]

So, with CoC behind us, things definitely got a little interesting!

Joannie is suddenly looking vulnerable. Akiko is now looking very good for GPF with her gold. When SC comes, now I think Akiko will be hard to beat if she keeps this up. Whereas, Caroline might have a chance at beating Joannie, especially if OO can get her 3-3 together in time. If the podium is Akiko - Caroline - Joannie, then Joannie will be out of the GPF.

With Kiira having gotten the silver here, and not being able to qualify for GPF with her 8th at TEB, now two silvers are out of the equation (Mao's and Kiira's). If Ashley wins another silver, that's four silvers accounted for and four likely GPF qualifiers (Yu-na, Miki, Akiko, and Ashley) so far. Now, if Sasha wins silver, then Caroline would qualify with a silver even if it is Joannie who wins SC and not Akiko -- Joannie and Caroline would both qualify. If Rachael wins the silver, and Akiko wins SC, then Caroline can still qualify as the 6th person (Rachael just ahead of her) if she wins silver at SC. If Rachael wins silver at SA, Joannie wins SC, Caroline gets silver, and Akiko bronze, then Caroline and Rachael will dual it out in a tie-breaker for the last spot.

Given the rather unexpected outcome of CoC, the fact that Joannie only got bronze, Akiko wins, and Kiira got silver, I think things just started looking a little bit better for Caroline. Now, if she can *win* SC, then she will guarantee herself a spot; and now it doesn't even look totally impossible, with Joannie looking vulnerable, and Akiko not always consistent.

 

[R.D.]

^ Interesting scenarios. A lot of things could happen...

 

[Andalusia]

I don't think there's any way Joannie won't win SC. Yes, I know she didn't look so hot at CoC, but I think that's due mostly to 'first official event of the season' jitters. You could see how mad she was after the short and how she improved in the long. Plus, she looked fantastic at the Japan Open, so it's not like the jumps just aren't working for her this season. There's also home ground advantage, and as a co-favourite for the OGM in Vancouver, I'm sure TPTB are desperate to have Joannie at the GPF.

I don't see Joannie repeating the same silly mistakes she made in the short at CoC. I think she can afford 1 or 2 falls and still sail to the top at SC. I think Akiko's only going to look stronger after a confidence-boosting win, and I think home ground advantage will assist Rachael at SA as well. Sasha is unlikely to be a factor because I'm doubtful she will even show up at SA.

Caroline's going to have to look much better than she did at TEB (although she should keep the improved speed and expression she showed in the SP) to even place second at SC. I suppose she'll need at least 6 ratified triples with a 3-3 in the long as well as a clean short in order to accomplish this. She also gave away levels at TEB, so she'll have to max those out. If WTT Caroline shows up at SC, silver will be possible, but what if evil OO rears its ugly mule-kick instead?

 

[janetfan]

Thanks for all of the good analysis.

I believe the dismal showing by USA Ladies so far this season (Ashley excluded) makes the GP's even LESS of a factor for how the Olympic team will be selected. More than ever, it will come down to one event and that of course is Nationals.

If GP's were going to even be weighted 15% towards the team selection I think that can now be thrown OUT or realistically reduced to 5%.

As it has for it's entire history, Nationals will be the only thing that counts.
That said, Caroline's chances will be just as good and no worse than Mirai, Rachael, Alissa, or Ashley. IMO if Ashley makes GPF she will be blown away and will lose by 40 points to Yuna and by 20-30 points by the other medalists.

It won't be a pretty site and how that could possibly help any skater make the National team is beyond my comprehension. It might even be better for Caroline not to be US Lady to suffer such a huge loss at the GPF as US skating will know for sure that she can't compete at the highest level.

If Sasha has ANYTHING left jumpwise she will win Nationals easily because quite frankly none of our Lady skaters are World class right now.

Some thoughts:
If Rachael misses any jumps at all she becomes a very run of the mill skater.

If Mirai can land her jumps without UR's she will win Natls no matter how the others skate.

Even if Caroline lands her jumps she still NEEDS help from the other skaters.

Alissa can win but like Caroline she needs mistakes from the others.

Ashley needs to show me again before I believe she can do it at Natls.

Sasha needs one clean 3x2 and three other clean triples to win by by a comfortable margin.

It is impossible to predict what will happen.
What is clear is just how far our US skaters are from competing against the world's best skaters.

US Skating should be gearing up for the future and that would mean no Alissa and no Sasha on the Olympic team.

I hope I am wrong about alot of this but seeing such a lacklustre Miki win COR last week followed by Akiko's performance makes it pretty clear our girls are simply not competitive in this Olympic season.

 

[cornell08]

Janetfan, I couldn't have put it better myself-- thanks for saving me the time and effort :agree:

Especially about Mirai-- I didn't think so the first time I watched her current programs but now I find them incredibly endearing and charming. She and Ashley both have alot of intricate choreography in their programs, but I think Mirai's is more effortless and not just there to be there.

 

[Trewyn]

As it has for it's entire history, Nationals will be the only thing that counts.
That said, Caroline's chances will be just as good and no worse than Mirai, Rachael, Alissa, or Ashley. IMO if Ashley makes GPF she will be blown away and will lose by 40 points to Yuna and by 20-30 points by the other medalists.

It won't be a pretty site and how that could possibly help any skater make the National team is beyond my comprehension. It might even be better for Caroline not to be US Lady to suffer such a huge loss at the GPF as US skating will know for sure that she can't compete at the highest level.

I've been thinking about Ashley possibly making the GPF and how that is good and not good at the same time... I hope Ashley medals at NHK, of course, because I dearly want her to prove that she can be consistent and is a good choice for the US Olympic team. But then again; the GPF is a very ungrateful competition for a first-time qualifier, someone who, like Ashley hasn't yet proved herself 'worthy' of being in the top 6. Of course; if you look at how everyone's been skating (except for Yu Na) everyone looks at least a little vulnerable and beatable. Rachael will 'lose' Skate America to Yu Na with 40 points as well; so that can't be a factor. But the foreboding of putting a less than perfect Miki over a nearly perfect (just one minor UR on one jump) Ashley with a huge margin gives something to think about.

 

[fairly4]

the only thing I will add is I hope US figure skating

won't cheat for Sasha, ALissa and Rachel to keep them on the olympic team.

Caroline does need to improve height--she does have rotation on her jumps.

Alissa need to be more confident in her landings and not switch edges
( to hold their landings on unsure jumps)--the same goes for Mirai, rachel.

Ashley improved on that respect--she doesn't change her ledges to hold her landings.

Sasha did change edges to hold her landings on a couple of jumps in the shows.
i haven't seen her skate competitively so I don't know.

they all need to improve their ur's. and artistry. except sasha doesn't need to improve artistry.

 

[oleada]

I think making the GPF would only benefit Ashley in terms of endearing herself to the USFS. If she puts together two solid programs, it won't matter if she's blown out by Kim and the others - who isn't at this point blown out by Kim? Making the GPF is still a huge deal. She'll prove she's been consistent enough and skated well enough in two events, and which other US lady can say that? Her score at CoR was considerably higher than any other lady and none of them even came close to match her LP score. Medaling at NHK (and therefore guaranteeing a berth at the GPF) would mean she beat two of Ando, Nakano, Lepisto and Leonova, who are all big names. Making the GPF would be a huge breakthrough for Ashley :thumbsup:

As for the others...

Nagasu will score well if she rotates her jumps, but that's a big if.
Caroline can land 5-7 triple programs but her jump technique prevents her from getting a big score.
Flatt is utterly flat, and without last year's consistency she won't get the scores she pulled last year
Alissa is a complete head case.
Who knows what Sasha looks like at this point?

So if Ashley can manage to keep her butt of the ice at NHK and US Nationals, I think the US judges will go with her.

 

[Trewyn]

Thank you for your positive analysis of Ashley . I'll be rooting for her to medal at NHK!! (and drive my family crazy *again* in the process) It would indeed be a big breakthrough for her!

 

[janetfan]

I think making the GPF would only benefit Ashley in terms of endearing herself to the USFS. If she puts together two solid programs, it won't matter if she's blown out by Kim and the others - who isn't at this point blown out by Kim? Making the GPF is still a huge deal. She'll prove she's been consistent enough and skated well enough in two events, and which other US lady can say that? Her score at CoR was considerably higher than any other lady and none of them even came close to match her LP score. Medaling at NHK (and therefore guaranteeing a berth at the GPF) would mean she beat two of Ando, Nakano, Lepisto and Leonova, who are all big names. Making the GPF would be a huge breakthrough for Ashley :thumbsup:

As for the others...

Nagasu will score well if she rotates her jumps, but that's a big if.
Caroline can land 5-7 triple programs but her jump technique prevents her from getting a big score.
Flatt is utterly flat, and without last year's consistency she won't get the scores she pulled last year
Alissa is a complete head case.
Who knows what Sasha looks like at this point?

So if Ashley can manage to keep her butt of the ice at NHK and US Nationals, I think the US judges will go with her.

That is a good analysis and you make a strong case for Ashley. I hope she does make the GPF but still don't believe it will give her any advantage (other than confidence) at Nationals. If the other girls outskate her she will be watching the Olympics at home on TV.

 

[oleada]

That is a good analysis and you make a strong case for Ashley. I hope she does make the GPF but still don't believe it will give her any advantage (other than confidence) at Nationals. If the other girls outskate her she will be watching the Olympics at home on TV.

But have any of the other US girls shown they can do that, though?

I mean, if two skaters skate programs with similar content, I think the USFS will go with the one who had good international results.

 

[janetfan]

But have any of the other US girls shown they can do that, though?

I mean, if two skaters skate programs with similar content, I think the USFS will go with the one who had good international results.

Sure that is a possibilty, But first, Ashley will have to skate very well in Japan - probably the best of her career to make the podium - unless we see more subpar performances from a few of the other top skaters. The way this season seems to be going there is a real chance for that to happen.

Secondly, if Ashley makes the GP Final, but comes in 3rd or lower at Natls I doubt if she will be picked for the Natl team. Anything is possible - but the Gold and Silver medalists at Natls, the ones who are skating the best closest to the Olympics will probably be picked for the team. And imo they would deserve it.

 

[R.D.]

Each US skater so far has done only one (?) event- so personally, I'll wait to see them again before I declare either "TNBT" or doom-and-gloom.

 

[janetfan]

Each US skater so far has done only one (?) event- so personally, I'll wait to see them again before I declare either "TNBT" or doom-and-gloom.

To watch and wait is always wise.
I don't feel very gloomy about this. US Ladies might not be a factor in Vancouver - but they will give us quite a show at Natls.

But it is not like I am judging this on one event each at the GP's. I have seen them skate before - like last season and the season before.

Having watched skating for many years I am very aware that not all successful JR skaters achieve the same level of success at the senior level.

But I have seen enough. This is not about a bad skate here, or a cup of coffee right before skating. Our girls are fine if we go back maybe 6 or 8 years ago. They could win senior medals in the skating world that existed then.

That world is gone. The bar has been raised higher by the Asian skaters.
At COC we saw Japan's # 4-5 skater simply show more skill than Rachael or Mirai could compete against.

I am not full of gloom about it, but I am not blind either.

I think a couple of our young skaters may win a few world medals in the next few seasons. I am still a Caroline fan and a Mirai fan. I wouldn't trade them for other countries young skaters.

But if you think one of our young Ladies is going to be a factor at the GPF or the Olympics I think you will be terribly disappointed. The talent may be there but it has not blossomed yet.

 

[feraina]

I don't think there's any way Joannie won't win SC. Yes, I know she didn't look so hot at CoC, but I think that's due mostly to 'first official event of the season' jitters. You could see how mad she was after the short and how she improved in the long. Plus, she looked fantastic at the Japan Open, so it's not like the jumps just aren't working for her this season. There's also home ground advantage, and as a co-favourite for the OGM in Vancouver, I'm sure TPTB are desperate to have Joannie at the GPF.

What bothered me about Joannie at SC is that she lost her confident air. Yes, she still landed 6 triples, but she did it without conviction, and it really showed in her skating. She had that air of supreme confidence and even invincibility last year, so that even when she made small jump mistakes, all the other elements were still great, and the PCS was very high. I remember she went into some of her jumps, like a simple 2A, with so much power and self-belief, that it would just look *huge* and made you go "wow", and it was only a 2A. The way she suddenly gained mental toughness and confidence last year was really striking. So now its sudden absence is also striking.

I'm bothered by an interview Joannie gave recently, in which she said she doesn't know where she got her new confidence from, in fact she doesn't even feel especially more confident, but rather people view her as more confident on ice because she said in an early interview last year that she has the Olympic podium in her sight! What disturbed me is that she *was* more confident on ice, everyone could see it, and in fact I don't especially recall her saying her goal is to be on that podium in Vancouver. But she didn't know it, or at least didn't know what made her more confident. That's like gaining a skill through motor repetition and not through cognitive understanding. It means that something like an injury or pause in training or a bad day would make it go away and you wouldn't know how to get it back. In the absence of Joannie's latest interview, I wouldn't worry about her as much -- maybe she just had two bad days. But given what she said, I am wondering if she can regain that sense of confidence and self-belief in time for the Olympics. If things don't go well again at the next GP, it can really have a negative knock-on effect. Well, let's wait and see, she has three weeks to figure out what made the difference last year.

ETA: she didn't lose to Akiko due to just the SP, she lost the LP by 6 points as well, with the same number of triples. And now with the outcome of CoC, I think relatively speaking Akiko can expect a smaller PCS deficit at SC. I can see Akiko beating her again in SC, especially if the home support unnerves her rather than steadies her.

 

[PolymerBob]

I think all the girls should, and will, try to get to the GPF. It is a significant achievement. The USFSA has stated that GPF performance will be a factor in choosing the Olympic team.

So if a girl makes the Final, the USFSA will consider that. If she podiums, she is likely to get a spot on the team. If she wins, she has punched her ticket to Vancouver.