Oh Well There are Still the Silver and Bronze medals...

[Ladskater]

It would seem with the return of Plushenko the men's gold medal finish is already determined and the same with the Ladies - Yuna Kim seems to have that one sewn up. Also I heard that the Chinese pair Shen and Zhao are returning in 2010 for the pairs. So, that leads me to think the Gold medals are pretty much determined as in times past. That does leave the dance open however. As any of the top four or five teams could end up on the top of the podium.

Oh well the silver and bronze medals are still up for grabs.

 

[Tonichelle]

wasn't Kurt destined to win in 1992? The ice is slippery, they still all have to stand up.

 

[merrybari]

I doubt the other skaters/contenders feel that way. Nor do I.

Anything unexpected can happen and often does. Sometimes the "expected" is different for each of us so it's up for grabs even tho' it may seem otherwise to some.

I also doubt Plushenko, Yu-Na or Shen/Zhao feel that way either. Woe be unto them if they do. Therein lies the path to complacency and therein lies the potential for disaster.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Plushenko definitely feels that way. He's number 1, remember?

His confidence is pretty unflappable.

 

[Tigger]

Yeah, well w/Kurt in 92 it wasn't so much the ice. It was more to do w/not enough time to truly make up for what was lost thanks to that slipped disc he suffered in his back that Fall. Kurt had to get a Medical Bye on to the Olympic and World Team that year and...

Well, we know the rest.

As for this year...The ice is slippery, injuries can still happen...It's only the first of November and February is still a long ways off yet. A lot can happen between now and then.

 

[Buttercup]

Yu-Na will likely win the gold in the ladies, barring unforeseen disaster. I don't think the other disciplines are at all settled. Shen and Zhao might win, but S/S if they skate well could win, too - or several other pairs if those two falter.

As for Plushenko, for all the finger waving, who has the all-time highest PB of the current men? (not Plushenko). Who received the highest score so far this season? (not Plushenko, either). Plushenko won against the weakest GP field so far, and while he appears to have the jumps, there's no way of knowing how the judges will evaluate him against a stronger group of skaters than he faced in Moscow.

 

[skatingbc]

Yu-Na will likely win the gold in the ladies, barring unforeseen disaster. I don't think the other disciplines are at all settled. Shen and Zhao might win, but S/S if they skate well could win, too - or several other pairs if those two falter.

As for Plushenko, for all the finger waving, who has the all-time highest PB of the current men? (not Plushenko). Who received the highest score so far this season? (not Plushenko, either). Plushenko won against the weakest GP field so far, and while he appears to have the jumps, there's no way of knowing how the judges will evaluate him against a stronger group of skaters than he faced in Moscow.

Definitely agree with you. It's not over til it's over, especially at the Olympics.

Even Patrick Chan has a PB only 5 pts lower than Plushy's, without the 2nd triple axel or quad. I know that everyone thinks his scores are inflated, but so are Plushenko's! I think we have a fantastic competition ahead of us. I know this is mean spirited, but wouldn't it be funny if Plushy did his finger-waving thing and then didn't win, or even come 2nd? I know, I know. I shouldn't wish negative things on skaters, but it's only because he's so cocky that I think it might be good to bring him down a notch or two.

 

[mishieru07]

Anything can happen. Judging by the past few Olympics and the current GP, we've had a fair bit of surprises already. Most people wouldn't have predicted that Hughes or Arakawa would win. Or that Asada would be off the CoR podium and Joannie wouldn't win CoC. Disasters do happen (Remember the Torino OD splat-fest?)

Ladies: I like Yu Na and would be thrilled if she wins. However, there's no telling what happens on competition day; she faltered at the GPF last year under pressure in her home country and lost to Asada (I don't think she had an injury, correct me if I'm wrong). Skaters do have off days and I just hope no one has theirs during the Olympics. If she goes clean though, she's pretty much untouchable unless Miki puts the quad/ 3/3s in and her or Asada skate very well.

Pairs: I think S/S at TEB is a good reminder of what could happen. I mean falling on a SPIRAL? Even Aliona said that has never happened before, not even in practice. If everyone goes clean, I can see S/S and S/Z fighting it out for gold but the Chinese or Russians can easily play spoiler, since clean skates are pretty rare to begin with.

Men: Plushy is consistent and that guy can really jump so he's definitely in the running. However, I wouldn't say that it's a given; others like Takahashi, Joubert and Oda can challenge him if they put quads in and skate clean. (Go go Dice-K, Lambiel, Chan and Oda!!) For all we know, someone might skate the lights out and just edge out Plushy (how he gets those PCS for Transitions I have no idea).

ITA about Dance ... it's going to be a total fight for the podium!! I think regardless of whoever medals/ wins, it's going to be heartbreaking. Personally, I hope that D/W and V/M will both stay on, even if either of them win, they can offer so much more and quite possibly the one of the most exciting rivalries in Ice Dance ever.

OTOH, I'd rather not see a Torino Men's/ TEB Ladies' like situation - the lead in the SP is so huge it's unsurmountable. I'd love to see a situation where it could be any of the top 3 - 5. That would be VERY exciting.

 

[katha]

IMO Plushenko, Kim and S/Z won in the fashion they did because they were clearly in a class of their own at their grand prix events. That won't necessarily be the case once the Olympics roll along and all their strongest rivals will be around.

Kim seems to have the most momentum, what with coming off a world title and all. She's a great SP skater and very rarely gets downgrades, that's something she has over ALL the other ladies. That said, when did she last land more than 5 triples in an LP, or skate a clean one for that matter? So if the other ladies don't let her get too far ahead in the SP, she's perhaps beatable if you lay down a six, seven triple program. Problem is, when was the last time one of the other competitors managed that in a big event? Ando did in 2007, but COP wasn't so strict with downgrades yet.

Plushenko should do something about that LP, there doesn't seem to be a clear concept to it yet. That he was able to somehow get away without a finished program shows what incredible self-confidence he has and is able to project to audience and judges. And that could be the crux of the matter, really. Nearly all the other man (excepting Lysacek ) are such headcases that I could see him winning because he's the only one who can keep it together under pressure. Also: Quad in the short, probably two quads and two triple axels in the long. How many of the other men can pull that of? Yeah, objectively he's beatable. The others will have to deliver, though, and if they don't they have no one but themselves to blame for what may happen.

S/Z will probably fight it out with S/S. IMO these two pairs are clearly better than the rest of the field. And S/S are very inconsistent, have been getting away with it and now will have to face a situation where a pair gets the same high marks they do...will be interesting to see how they react.

 

[antmanb]

It would seem with the return of Plushenko the men's gold medal finish is already determined and the same with the Ladies - Yuna Kim seems to have that one sewn up. Also I heard that the Chinese pair Shen and Zhao are returning in 2010 for the pairs. So, that leads me to think the Gold medals are pretty much determined as in times past. That does leave the dance open however. As any of the top four or five teams could end up on the top of the podium.

Oh well the silver and bronze medals are still up for grabs.

Well i would have to mostly disagree completely with you

Plush is not a lock for the gold medal. Yes he has regained his jumps but he is not unbeatable. The field at COR was not as strong as the competition he'll face at Euros and worlds. He is still coming back off a 3 and half year hiaitus and even he has succumbed to Olympic pressure before in 2002.

As for Kim being a lock for the gold i'll just remind you that during the GP season in 2006 all that was written about the ladies was that Irina would wni the gold, there was no question anyone was going to win - she was winning by big margins and looked unstoppable. everyone was slating the judging and claiming she could go on the ice and do armpit farts and still win and we know how that ended.

Shen and zho are not "returning" they actually have returned and won the pairs competition at Cup of China at the weekend. They are by now means unbeatable and lot will depend on the performances.

When has it ever happened that all the favourites won the gold at an Olympics?

Ant

 

[Medusa]

I know this is mean spirited, but wouldn't it be funny if Plushy did his finger-waving thing and then didn't win, or even come 2nd? I know, I know. I shouldn't wish negative things on skaters, but it's only because he's so cocky that I think it might be good to bring him down a notch or two.

And Patrick Chan is such an image of pure humbleness. Such a good little boy.

And yeah, it's nasty to wish negative things on skaters. Plushenko is an incredibly hard worker like most the other skaters, someone who had a very very tough time to reach the top and sacrificed so much for his success.

I e.g. wish that Chan skates to the best of his abilities at the Olympics, as should everyone else. Let's see who comes out on top.

 

[Olympia]

If there's any place one should never assume, it's sports. "Sure things" have an off night, and lesser lights give the competition of their life. Remember Elizabeth Manley at Calgary?

The way Oda's been eating up the ice this year, he could certainly win, and we haven't seen Takahashi much yet. And, as someone remarked a few posts ago, the ice is slippery. (Though I do hope that Shen and Zhao get their gold at last!)

Come to think of it, who cares even if it is all a shoe-in? It can still be exciting. In 1984, Torvill and Dean were probably as close as it ever comes to a lock for gold. And we were all still riveted, because their programs were so glorious to watch. (Granted, in those days there was no Grand Prix, so we hadn't had much of a chance to view the programs before the Games, but they would have knocked us over anyway.) I still remember Peggy Fleming saying after their long program, "We are so lucky to be here tonight!" I still feel privileged just getting to "be there" via TV for that.

 

[Phoenix347]

Nothing is written in stone. One little hiccup or misstep in the short program is enough to change the whole dynamics in the competition. And of course there is no pressure quite like Olympic pressure. We might get some surprises. Hopefully those surprises will be mostly competitor skating to new heights than total melt-downs but those wouldn't be so surprising either. No one is guaranteed a medal by any means.

 

[Tonichelle]

Yeah, well w/Kurt in 92 it wasn't so much the ice. It was more to do w/not enough time to truly make up for what was lost thanks to that slipped disc he suffered in his back that Fall. Kurt had to get a Medical Bye on to the Olympic and World Team that year and...

Well, we know the rest.

that's my point, though, no one knows what's going to happen... back issues that Todd Eldredge and Kurt faced are just one example..

then you have Paul Wylie's who come out of no where (and people still argue shouldn't have even BEEN THERE) and spoil the whole competition with the skate(s) of their life!

 

[Jaana]

I´m very much afraid that in a sport like figure skating Plushenko as the Olympic champion has a huge advantage compared to his competitors. It will be a great surprise to me if the men´s competition will be judged according to what actually happens on the ice (Plushenko´s PCS). I hope I´m wrong. Anyway, I have nothing against if Plushenko wins fairly.

 

[Wicked]

I think there are no locks and everyone better skate.

 

[skatingbc]

And Patrick Chan is such an image of pure humbleness. Such a good little boy.

I didn't say anything regarding Patrick Chan being completely humble or hm being uber-confident. I just brought his scores into the conversation to show that Plushenko's scores are beatable.

And yeah, it's nasty to wish negative things on skaters. Plushenko is an incredibly hard worker like most the other skaters, someone who had a very very tough time to reach the top and sacrificed so much for his success.

I e.g. wish that Chan skates to the best of his abilities at the Olympics, as should everyone else. Let's see who comes out on top.

It's not so much that I want Plushenko to bomb so that the other beat him. It's more like I want everyone to skate their best, and Plushenko not be on top at the end of it all. Personally, if Oda skates perfectly, and Plushenko skates perfectly, than I think Oda should win hands down.

 

[R.D.]

My gut response is ITA, why bother.

But then

Nothing is written in stone. One little hiccup or misstep in the short program is enough to change the whole dynamics in the competition. And of course there is no pressure quite like Olympic pressure. We might get some surprises. Hopefully those surprises will be mostly competitor skating to new heights than total melt-downs but those wouldn't be so surprising either. No one is guaranteed a medal by any means.

Yuna is the clear front-runner leading up to Vancouver. But I think she can afford to make mistakes and still be ahead of everyone else at their best. THAT's what troubles me. She can build the usual 30 point lead after the short, bomb the FS and still win by a comfortable margin. The short program at the Olys will be CRITICAL in determining whether anyone else has a shot at the OGM.

 

[Medusa]

Yuna is the clear front-runner leading up to Vancouver. But I think she can afford to make mistakes and still be ahead of everyone else at their best. THAT's what troubles me. She can build the usual 30 point lead after the short, bomb the FS and still win by a comfortable margin. The short program at the Olys will be CRITICAL in determining whether anyone else has a shot at the OGM.

That's a very good point. Let's see, other short programs with the typical 3-2, 3, 2A layout get around 60, some a bit above, some a bit lower. Now deduct from Kim's 76 points the Triple Flip, perhaps she pops it, - still 71. Let's say she pops the Flip and falls on the 2A - we are still at 67 points. Let's say she pops the Flip, falls on the 2A and on the 3T at the end of the 3-3. Makes 63 points. Now we are close to the highest scores of the other ladies this season. I know that it's not done this way, and that a program with such three glaring mistakes might also get lower PCS. But it's kind of scary nevertheless.

 

[Ptolemy]

My gut response is ITA, why bother.

But then



Yuna is the clear front-runner leading up to Vancouver. But I think she can afford to make mistakes and still be ahead of everyone else at their best. THAT's what troubles me. She can build the usual 30 point lead after the short, bomb the FS and still win by a comfortable margin. The short program at the Olys will be CRITICAL in determining whether anyone else has a shot at the OGM.

I get your point but I don't think she's ever has a 30 point lead after the short.