That's a really helpful, meticulous analysis. You call attention to important details like extension, jump consistency, interpretive style, and competitive history. I fear you're right about Ashley, though for the sake of American skating, I sure hope you're wrong. I don't see anyone of strength and authority in the American lineup this year...unless Sasha shows up and stays calm. I know that's an unrealistic hope. But when I go onto YouTube and watch Sasha skate at any age, I see a refinement and strength that no one else in the States has, except Alissa when she can stay on her feet.
I do hope Rochette tries her triple-triple here, as you suggest. Of all the women except for Leonova, the stakes are lowest for her here, because she doesn't have to worry that Canada will send someone else instead of her to the Olympics if she doesn't do well. She's easily her country's flagship skater, as Leonova is currently for Russia. So she should take this opportunity to try the jump combo out in competition.
To me, Ando often looks like a deer in the headlights. Whenever I watch her, except for the year she won Worlds, I hear the announcer saying that she's having an off night. So whenever she's doing this fabulous work she's known for, it's rarely while I'm watching. I like her and hope for the best, but there's a fragility about her that always unsettles me. Maybe, as you point out, it's the pressure she's under when she's the Great Hope of Japan.
I love Suzuki: what charm and vivacity! The same is true for Leonova, for many of the same reasons. But for quality and elevated interpretation, my vote's with Kim all the way in this group.