Mid-Season Report: U.S. Ladies, R.D. Style

[silverlake22]

Actually, she went in 2008 as the 3rd place finisher at Nats (the highest of the team). Unfortunately, she had a disastrous freeskate at the worlds and finished way down in 16th.

Haha can't believe I totally missed that. Now I vaguely remember the situation.

The whole worlds/junior worlds placement makes no sense to me. Like last year why did they send Katrina Hacker and Ashley? Isn't junior worlds for JUNIOR skaters? Or at least young senior level skaters? Not 18 year old senior level skaters. Mirai and Alexe should have gotten to go to junior worlds...

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Vancouver is a few months away and it makes sense for the two who skate the best in January to go.

It may make sense, but I do not believe it works that way. The winner of the Nats, will get a free ride to compete in Vancouver. The USFS will decide who goes as the second entrant. There are many reasons for them to come up with numero dos.

 

[623]

Mirai and Alexe should have gotten to go to junior worlds...

Mirai was supposed to participate, but she had to withdraw and Katrina filled the slot.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

if Ashley gets a decent score and Alissa is clean, one of them will p robably make the team, and the results should be close. If one messes up, the spot is likely to go to the other. If both mess up, Mirai has a good shot at getting the second spot with a solid long. Anyone else see it this way?

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I think we are giving too much to Rachael as winning the US Nats. She is a contender, but so are the others. It's really a race for gold. If Rachael gets silver, I am sure she will be selected for the Olys, if and only if Sasha wins.

If Rachael gets silver and Caroline or some other lady wins, then Rachael is out because S&Z and Plush together with Sasha will be what the Olys need.

My indicators are showing Sasha and whoever wins the Nats or

who the USFS decides if Sasha wins the Nats.

I'm just giving my best Las Vegas odds.

 

[janetfan]

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I think we are giving too much to Rachael as winning the US Nats. She is a contender, but so are the others. It's really a race for gold. If Rachael gets silver, I am sure she will be selected for the Olys, if and only if Sasha wins.

If Rachael gets silver and Caroline or some other lady wins, then Rachael is out because S&Z and Plush together with Sasha will be what the Olys need.

My indicators are showing Sasha and whoever wins the Nats or

who the USFS decides if Sasha wins the Nats.

I'm just giving my best Las Vegas odds.

Has Speedy maybe dropped a few hints that he wants Sasha at the Olympics too?

 

[bekalc]

Janetfan, I'm going to have to disagree with you. You cannot compare Harding's case to whatever case the National Champion would have now.

The reason I say that is that the guidelines in Harding's time stated clearly that the National Champion was GUARANTEED a spot on the Olympic team... Those were the rules and Harding was just asking that they be followed.

However, the rules and they were I believed changed last year clearly state that being National Champion does not guarantee you a spot on the Olympic team... So all of the girls knew they had to perform well this season, and even before Worlds last year they knew.

And I really have to disagree that its somehow wrong or unfair to take into account other events. I think you have to point out that last year's nationals hardly showed that Czisny could handle pressure better than Flatt and Zhang. The whole events results were questionable because Alissa was given scores she just wouldn't have gotten internationally. With HUGELY inflated PCS, credit for jumps that might not have been credit by an international panel, and not getting called on things like her lip.

In someways I think that its actually fairer to take into account international results because those are judged by a less biased panel. You can also take into account that sometimes people have off competitions/and people have skate of their lives. The Japanese tried our system last year, and that proved disasterous for them when it came to Junior World/JGP spots.

And while people complain about the Russians, I don't really think there's a case of where the Russians in recent memory have not really came up with the best teams. Choosing Leonova in spite of her nationals performance was smart and it was based on real results.

However you cannot say well Sasha has the body of work. Nobody is saying that results four years ago should matter. They are saying recent results should be factored in. The problem with the Japanese federation's system at the last Olympics was the fact that they didn't factor in at all that Ando was imploding all season long. And that Shizuka had some of the toughest GP events.

 

[Mathman]

Maybe someone else knows about the legality issue regarding a skater's staus as Champion and being forced off a Natl or Olympic team.

I am not a lawyer, but I do not see any legal ground for any kind of court action, no matter what the USFSA decides.

As Bekalc says, in the Tonya Harding case it was different because the USFSA's own by-laws, which were approved by the United States Olympic Committee with regard to the selection procedure, stated that the U.S. championship is the official Olympic qualifier and the winner goes to the Olympics. So if they had booted Harding, the basis of her legal action would be that the USFSA violated their own Olympic selection rules.

Harding could also have appealed to the USOC to put her on the team, going over the head of the USFSA. (The USFSA only nominates figure skaters to the USOC for inclusion on the U.S. Olympic team.)

Under the new rules, there is no special provision for the U.S. champion. Basically, the USFSA can do whatever it wants, as long as it "takes into account" the competitions that are listed in the rules.

That was the moment I became a lifelong fan. [Michelle] carried us, she moved us forward, and she never let us down, from that day on.

She carried United States figure skating on her back for ten years.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I doubt Speedy will interfere with the USFS.

The whole of the US National Championships falls on Sasha. She doesn't have to win, but she can not melt either. A decent skate and a 4th place finish will put her in the graces of the USFS.

As I said before, if Sasha wins, then the USFS selects the 2nd skater. If anyone but Sasha wins, that 'anyone' will go to the Olys, and if Sasha is in the graces of the USFS, she will be selected to go also.

Much too much about this Olys is the Return of the Champs. The movie will be released in January.

 

[Tinymavy15]

Much too much about this Olys is the Return of the Champs. The movie will be released in January.

I know. If I was a new face I would be getting pretty angry right now. Just when you think it is your time all the ghosts of olympics past come back to haunt you.

 

[R.D.]

The only way Cohen should get to go to the Olys imo is to a) show up at Nationals (i.e. no petitions) and b) win the event.

2nd place (whomever it is) should require a long, hard look at the evidence plus some guesswork.

 

[janetfan]

However you cannot say well Sasha has the body of work. Nobody is saying that results four years ago should matter. They are saying recent results should be factored in. The problem with the Japanese federation's system at the last Olympics was the fact that they didn't factor in at all that Ando was imploding all season long. And that Shizuka had some of the toughest GP events.

Thanks to Beka and mathman for clarifying the rule changes. I have no problem accepting the rule changes even if I disagree with them.

Earlier a "body of work" was mentioned about Rachael which led to my comment about Sasha's totally superior "body of work."

Sasha has a fine "body of work" second only to Michelle's in recent US skating history. And the rules allow her to compete at Natls because of her Olympic Silver medal.

I can see the points you are making and think they are mostly good. I disagree a little but that is just my opinion. I don't think GP results are that important and all we have to do is see how poorly the both GP champions did at last year's worlds.

There are just as many cases i could cite as you could so it is fair enough to say I see the logic in your points but have a different view.

I really see no point to a National competition unless it is weighted extremely heavily towards the medalists earning spots on Natl or Olympic teams.

If that is not the case then it is simply not a National competition. It is something else and I don't think I like our federation making these type of a changes.

But there have to be rules so I hope they don't screw it up. US Skating has already lost so many of it's fans and followers I don't think they can afford a contentious and less than fair looking placement for the Olympic spots.

 

[Mathman]

Well, in my opinion, first and second at Nationals will go to the Olympics. The rest is just Internet chatter.

(Always reserving the right to be wrong, of course. )

 

[janetfan]

Well, in my opinion, first and second at Nationals will go to the Olympics. The rest is just Internet chatter.

(Always reserving the right to be wrong, of course. )

OK, you got me

 

[R.D.]

Well, in my opinion, first and second at Nationals will go to the Olympics. The rest is just Internet chatter.

(Always reserving the right to be wrong, of course. )

It depends on whether the USFS is still guaranteeing the US champ a spot on the Oly team. It seems as if they aren't any more, which is what's leading to all this speculation.

If Flatt wins, I'm just about positive that 1 and 2 will be sent to Olys. But if Flatt is 3rd or 4th, that's where things might get a bit gray. Will USFS leave their potentially biggest chance for a strong finish (possibly even a medal if the faves slip) at home?

 

[R.D.]

Also, an aside- I watched NBC's coverage of the GPF and caught a US Nationals ad. I noticed a big clue that men and ice dance might be promoted more since they mentioned only Lysacek and Belbin/Agosto by name (they showed footage of Rachel Flatt but didn't "advertise" her- same with the pairs I think). First time they haven't mentioned any ladies by name IIRC...

 

[silverlake22]

If Flatt wins, I'm just about positive that 1 and 2 will be sent to Olys. But if Flatt is 3rd or 4th, that's where things might get a bit gray. Will USFS leave their potentially biggest chance for a strong finish (possibly even a medal if the faves slip) at home?

ITA. And I think it would be stupid for the USFS to leave Rachael at home, especially if the people that placed in front of her were Zhang, Czisny, or Cohen. I leave out Mirai because she doesn't get hugely inflated PCS. Rachael doesn't implode, she just doesn't. Her "shaky" performance at CoC still got her 4th place, at worlds she missed the 3-3 and 2footed her combo jump and got 5th.

I really hope Sasha doesn't show up because even if she does win, she hasn't competed in forever and no one will knows is she had the skate of her life or not. Plus she is prone to falling, and just cares about winning. Alissa has a similar style and does not just care about winning and has been competing for the last 3 years, working hard, and making progress. She should go instead of Sasha if it comes down between the two.

In terms of the situation of Rachael in 3rd or 4th, I wouldn't worry if Caroline and Mirai are the ones who beat her, the international judges show no mercy to these girls and the USFS probably knows it. If Ashley or Alissa are the ones ahead of Rachael, it's a different story

 

[Mathman]

Also, an aside- I watched NBC's coverage of the GPF and caught a US Nationals ad. I noticed a big clue that men and ice dance might be promoted more since they mentioned only Lysacek and Belbin/Agosto by name...

Here is what will be most interesting to me. Will they swap in Davis and White for Belbin and Agosto in the next ad?

 

[R.D.]

Here is what will be most interesting to me. Will they swap in Davis and White for Belbin and Agosto in the next ad?

I doubt it. Tanith Belbin is a name likely familiar to many non-skate fans since she was in Torino. Lysacek is the reigning world champ. The best the Ladies have is Rachel's 5th place.

 

[janetfan]

I doubt it. Tanith Belbin is a name likely familiar to many non-skate fans since she was in Torino. Lysacek is the reigning world champ. The best the Ladies have is Rachel's 5th place.

At the end of the NBC broadcast they did show a little of D/W and mentioned they were the first American Dance team to win a GPF.

But the coverage is disappointing imo and NBC is not helping their cause by ignoring our two good Dance teams all season long.

 

[R.D.]

But the coverage is disappointing imo and NBC is not helping their cause by ignoring our two good Dance teams all season long.

But that was only the GP- I'm sure they'll get PLENTY of coverage come US Nats and particularly Olys.