Just HOW will the U.S. teams be picked?

[gkelly]

Noted, but regardless, there have been exceptions to these Nationals' results of going to the Olys,

When? Which exceptions are you thinking of?

I can only think of two kinds:

-a reigning or recent world medalist withdrew from Nationals and was named to the Olympic team in favor of the national silver or bronze medalist depending how many spots were available

-teams in which one of the partners was not a US citizen and thus not eligible to represent the US at the Olympics were replaced with eligible teams that placed lower at Nationals

Another version of the latter case would be if a skater were too young to be eligible to compete. We've had that happen with ladies and pairs world teams in the past, but so far it hasn't applied in an Olympic year.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

There seems to be a common perception that Caroline will be at a disadvantage come Nationals. I don't think that is true. She beat Rachael and Alissa at Four Continents, and beat Ashley at Junior Worlds. She beat Rachael again at World Team Trophy. Caroline and Rachael then both had a mediocre first Grand Prix event. Rachael then had a great event at Skate America while Caroline bombed at Skate Canada. Will Caroline be knocked down if favor of Rachael because of one event? ( See my comment right above this one. )

If the USFSA does exactly what they claim they will do ( What a crazy idea!! ) Caroline is actually at an advantage. She was top U.S. lady at 2 of the 5 critical events, which none of the other girls can claim.

I think most people are pointing out that while Flatt is continuing on the improvements she made last year, Zhang is declining considerably. It's not simply the fact that it's one event differing the two, but that Flatt seems to be trending upward whereas Zhang... well, her technique issues are simply destroying her. Additionally, there's some feeling that Flatt was robbed at two consecutive Nationals, but her international results have been solid.

janetfan, here's the logic as I understand it

1. The Olympic Champion is the one who wins the Olympics. The Grand Prix Champion is the one who wins the GPF. The National Champion is the one who wins the Nationals. Etc

2. The goal of the USFSA is to field the strongest team at major international events. Now how does one go about doing that? Here, you make sense, whether or not I agree
i) Use Nationals as the sole arbiter. Why? As you stated, all the eligible competitors are there, and being acclaimed as the best in the nation should be criterion enough to REPRESENT that nation at the biggest event of the year (Worlds/Olympics). Why not? Because if you compete four times in the season and do well at three of them but NOT at Nationals, due to a fluke/injury but compete anyways/illness, does that make you any less of a contender at the competition down the line? Johnny Weir last year will inspire endless debate.

ii) Use Nationals as the predominant arbiter with other competitions as aids. Why? Because does one competition really tell the story? Or how about the following situation.

1. Rachael Flatt, 186.76
2. Christina Gao, 176.54
3. Ashley Wagner, 176.52
4. Alissa Czisny, 170.65

Gao skates a lights out program and eeks out second place above Wagner. Who should go to the Olympics?

 

[R.D.]

There seems to be a common perception that Caroline will be at a disadvantage come Nationals. I don't think that is true. She beat Rachael and Alissa at Four Continents, and beat Ashley at Junior Worlds. She beat Rachael again at World Team Trophy. Caroline and Rachael then both had a mediocre first Grand Prix event. Rachael then had a great event at Skate America while Caroline bombed at Skate Canada. Will Caroline be knocked down if favor of Rachael because of one event? ( See my comment right above this one. )

I think Zhang is being counted out because SC is fresh in people's minds. That was easily the worst performance I've ever seen her do, and it showed in her scores. Not even Meissner sunk that low IIRC.

Anything can happen, but Zhang has a tendency to tighten up at Nationals...I think her placing top two would be a bit of a surprise (not a shocker though).

 

[janetfan]

I think most people are pointing out that while Flatt is continuing on the improvements she made last year, Zhang is declining considerably. It's not simply the fact that it's one event differing the two, but that Flatt seems to be trending upward whereas Zhang... well, her technique issues are simply destroying her. Additionally, there's some feeling that Flatt was robbed at two consecutive Nationals, but her international results have been solid.

janetfan, your logic makes absolutely no sense. Ergo

1. The Olympic Champion is the one who wins the Olympics. The Grand Prix Champion is the one who wins the GPF. The National Champion is the one who wins the Nationals. Etc

2. The goal of the USFSA is to field the strongest team at major international events. Now how does one go about doing that? Here, you make sense, whether or not I agree
i) Use Nationals as the sole arbiter. Why? As you stated, all the eligible competitors are there, and being acclaimed as the best in the nation should be criterion enough to REPRESENT that nation at the biggest event of the year (Worlds/Olympics). Why not? Because if you compete four times in the season and do well at three of them but NOT at Nationals, due to a fluke/injury but compete anyways/illness, does that make you any less of a contender at the competition down the line? Johnny Weir last year will inspire endless debate.

ii) Use Nationals as the predominant arbiter with other competitions as aids. Why? Because does one competition really tell the story? Or how about the following situation.

1. Rachael Flatt, 186.76
2. Christina Gao, 176.54
3. Ashley Wagner, 176.52
4. Alissa Czisny, 170.65

Gao skates a lights out program and eeks out second place above Wagner. Who should go to the Olympics?

My comment about the Olympics being decided by multiple events is to show how silly it is to claim to have a Natl championship and then disregard the results.

If Sasha shows and places 1 or 2 then she should be on the National team.
I would say the same for Christina (if she is old enough). If she can beat the others I don't want to penalize her for being better - I want to reward her for being better. That is the whole point of having a National Championship right?

You are confusing less important GP medals with National medals. To me there is no comparison.

I think that some would like to have a national team based on Grand Prixs and that just seems totally ridiculous to me. I don't care how well Rachael skated at SA or how badly Mirai was penalized at COC. That was then, a few months ago.

I want to see the top skaters, a few weeks before the Olympics compete under intense pressure against each other. The best skaters earn their way onto the National team by how they perform. US Skating apparently agrees with me as they want to see how these skaters handle the pressure right before the Olympics.

Regarding Johnny - I am not his fan but thought it was unfortuante he was ill and not in top shape last season. He could have declined to skate and then petitioned for a spot on the team. Once he decided to compete his fate was determined by how he skated. I think it will be the same for Johnny this season. If he makes the podium he will go. If he doesn't then he will probably stay home.

I don't think US Skating owes him any favors and think they will treat him fairly - basically like the others.

 

[R.D.]

ii) Use Nationals as the predominant arbiter with other competitions as aids. Why? Because does one competition really tell the story? Or how about the following situation.

1. Rachael Flatt, 186.76
2. Christina Gao, 176.54
3. Ashley Wagner, 176.52
4. Alissa Czisny, 170.65

Gao skates a lights out program and eeks out second place above Wagner. Who should go to the Olympics?

That's not an easy decision. Although I take it Wagner can be chosen based on her GPF qualification if so desired. Honestly, besides Flatt I don't think any of them have made a solid case as to why they should go to Olys even if they don't make top 2.

 

[janetfan]

That's not an easy decision. Although I take it Wagner can be chosen based on her GPF qualification if so desired. Honestly, besides Flatt I don't think any of them have made a solid case as to why they should go to Olys even if they don't make top 2.

I don't think Flat, protected as she was made much of a case either. But who knew Ashley's two GP's would turn out to be easier than they looked ?

That is exactly why using the GP series is bogus.

Let them skate and compete and show us who is the best under the huge pressure of Natls.

We have always done it that way and in case no one noticed - US Skating has won plenty of Olympic medals over the years.

 

[gkelly]

I think most people are pointing out that while Flatt is continuing on the improvements she made last year, Zhang is declining considerably. It's not simply the fact that it's one event differing the two, but that Flatt seems to be trending upward whereas Zhang...

Which is useful information for making predictions of how they will perform at Nationals.

But after Nationals is over, there will be more information.

If Zhang should place ahead of Flatt there, especially if she does so convincingly . . . well, that would mean that at least one of them reversed the pre-Nationals trend, right?

So predictions for how they might each fare in Vancouver would also have to be revised accordingly, if predictions of Olympic success were an actual criterion for selection. Officially it is not. Only actual placements are, with Nationals placements given the largest weight.

 

[R.D.]

Even throwing out this year's Gp results (see my analysis in the Mid-Season Report thread), Flatt still has a top 5 finish at Worlds to boast about. Her competitors either a) haven't been to worlds or b) haven't made the top 10 at worlds.

That said, I do agree that Flatt is no Kwan when it comes to reliability and results. She's also no Cohen- if she makes mistakes, there's nothing to hold her up...this makes it tough on USFS, particularly if she misses out on the top 2 (or worse, must WD). Of course, the fair thing to do in that case is to leave her at home but would that guarantee the best Oly result? That's up for debate...

 

[janetfan]

Even throwing out this year's Gp results (see my analysis in the Mid-Season Report thread), Flatt still has a top 5 finish at Worlds to boast about. Her competitors either a) haven't been to worlds or b) haven't made the top 10 at worlds.

That said, I do agree that Flatt is no Kwan when it comes to reliability and results. She's also no Cohen- if she makes mistakes, there's nothing to hold her up...this makes it tough on USFS, particularly if she misses out on the top 2 (or worse, must WD). Of course, the fair thing to do in that case is to leave her at home but would that guarantee the best Oly result? That's up for debate...

If Rachael is as good and reliable as many claim - then what does she have to worry about? Her quality and reliabilty will serve her well and she will finish 1 or 2 at Natls and make the team.

But what if she doesn't? Then as gkelly correctly states we will have a new results based reality to consider and talk about.

I am not so sure how Mirai will do at Natls. She may skate brilliantly and win - or maybe she will come out and not skate so well.

One thing is sure - I don't want the biased and unfair results she got at SC to determine her fate. I am sure Mirai would agree on that. Let her compete and if she beats the others then she deserves to go to Vancouver.

It is fair and not political - and since ISU/CoP wants skating to be more of a "sport" let's hear none of the baby talk about "what if such and such has a bad day"? If Yuna skates poorly in Vancouver she probably will not become Olympic Champion. What should ISU do - consider her "other events" and how well she did last year at Worlds? Give me a break

 

[Mathman]

I agree with Janetfan on this one. There is just something clean and sportsmanlike to say, if you want the prize (a place on the Olympic team), you have to skate for it. Right here, right now, winner take all.

 

[janetfan]

I agree with Janetfan on this one. There is just something clean and sportsmanlike to say, if you want the prize (a place on the Olympic team), you have to skate for it. Right here, right now, winner take all.

I am sure that is the last time this year you will agree with me

BTW, I have my favorites - but I will be happy for the two Ladies who skate to Gold and Silver at Natls and make the team.

I hope it is Mirai and Alissa but I will be OK if it is Rachael, Ashley, Caroline or Sasha. I like all of them and think they will put on quite a show for us.

And I have no idea which two it will be!

 

[R.D.]

I want the best chance at a good finish/outside shot at a medal, and I suppose it's basically a crapshoot for everyone at this point in time. I think a team with Rachel Flatt on it will give us that chance. There really is no other skater who has stood out so I might go with finding the sentimental pick out of the others.

 

[Mathman]

^ The trouble is, this time around they are ALL sentimental favorites. A well-earned rewared for all their hard work, the chance of a lifetime to represent their county.

To me, whoever wins or loses it will be a thrill of victory, agony of defeat kind of competition.

I am sure that is the last time this year you will agree with me

Well, there are still 7 hours left in this year, so you never know!

 

[R.D.]

^ The trouble is, this time around they are ALL sentimental favorites. A well-earned rewared for all their hard work, the chance of a lifetime to represent their county.

Valid point. Very true, actually.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

e

I wonder about your criteria and if it really fits a sport like figure skating?

Why should the OGM go to a skater who only wins at the Olympics? Using your logic couldn't we say that we have to consider what the skaters did over a year or two to determine who is worthy of being called "Olympic Champion?

It would be a hoot to measure this over 16 years .

I think what posters are saying is that whatever authority says, we must obey. There is no other way to decide who goes to the Olys except those who medaled at the US Nats. If a skater has proven himself to be exceptional all season but falters at the Nats, he should not be considered for the Team. I think we should agree to disagree.

We'll soon see if that special committee rubber stamps the results of the Nats which may prove that the committee is only a ceremonial group. NO?

 

[janetfan]

It would be a hoot to measure this over 16 years .

I think what posters are saying is that whatever authority says, we must obey. There is no other way to decide who goes to the Olys except those who medaled at the US Nats. If a skater has proven himself to be exceptional all season but falters at the Nats, he should not be considered for the Team. I think we should agree to disagree.

We'll soon see if that special committee rubber stamps the results of the Nats which may prove that the committee is only a ceremonial group. NO?

Yes, we will see soon enough if we still have a valid Natl championship.

Happy New Year.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

It is fair and not political - and since ISU/CoP wants skating to be more of a "sport" let's hear none of the baby talk about "what if such and such has a bad day"? If Yuna skates poorly in Vancouver she probably will not become Olympic Champion. What should ISU do - consider her "other events" and how well she did last year at Worlds? Give me a break

Again, one more time, your logic doesn't really make sense. No one is arguing that the National Championship should be decided by anything other than the event itself. No one is arguing that the Olympic Gold Medal should be given for lifetime/season achievement.

Your argument, which again - makes sense - is that Nationals is the most important event of the year. Having international experience on the senior level is irrelevant (see your comment re: Gao). Having a strong international record is irrelevant. Being the best on that night is. If you can't do it on that big night, who cares. If you can't do it on that night, how can you be expected to do it at the Olympics.

 

[janetfan]

Again, one more time, your logic doesn't really make sense. No one is arguing that the National Championship should be decided by anything other than the event itself. No one is arguing that the Olympic Gold Medal should be given for lifetime/season achievement.

Your argument, which again - makes sense - is that Nationals is the most important event of the year. Having international experience on the senior level is irrelevant (see your comment re: Gao). Having a strong international record is irrelevant. Being the best on that night is. If you can't do it on that big night, who cares. If you can't do it on that night, how can you be expected to do it at the Olympics.

If Christina Gao beats Rachael and the others at Natls then she will be named to the team.

If not, she could take legal action and get herself on the team. By the time it was settled the Olympics would be over and she would have had a chance to participate.

It won't happen because Christina is not quite good enough yet and if she did come 1 or 2 US Skating would not want to bump her for skaters that have little or no Intl resumes.

The only one of our Ladies that does have a good Intl resume is Sasha - and some of the same posters who are arguing for past accomplishments to count are also against Sasha at all costs.

Now that is illogical.

 

[Mathman]

We'll soon see if that special committee rubber stamps the results of the Nats which may prove that the committee is only a ceremonial group. NO?

The commitee in question is the Managemanet Subcommittee of the USFSA's International Committee. This committee bears the responsibility of selecting team members for all U.S. representatives to international competotions, including the grand prix, four continents and worlds, in addition to the Olympics.

The members of the committee are listed on page 5 of this document.

http://www.usfigureskating.org/cont... WOG FSK Athlete Selection Procedures web.pdf

One of the members is Mark Mitchell, former top U.S. men's competitor. Another is Richard Dalley, 5th at the 1984 Olympics in ice dance. All of the members are figure skating referees, judges, technical specialist and long-time Association officers of one sort or another.

If any poster on the internet wants to have his opinion heard where it counts, he/she can write to any of the members of this subcommittee. I just did, as follows:

Dear Ms. Enzmann (chairperson): If you don't put Rachael Flatt on the Olympic team. in view of her fine performances at 2009 Worlds and 2009 Skate America, then you are an idiot. Signed, Mathman.

---------------

I think what posters are saying is that whatever authority says, we must obey.

Well, we don't have to obey anyone (no one is giving us any orders.) But unless the nation rises up in arms, here is the procedure.

The Management subcommittee meets immediately after Nationals (January 18 for men and pairs, and January 24 for ladies and dance). They will nominate the Olympic team members, together with a ranked list of alternates to the full International Committee. The International Committee meets the next day (January 25) to approve the nominations of the subcommittee. Then the nominations are passed along to the United States Olympic Committee, which gives final approval.

I believe that all of these steps in the bureaucracy are pretty much just rubber stanping the results of nationals, except for extremely rare special circumstances like the Michelle Kwan situation in 2006, where the committees actually had a decision to make that wasn't obvious.

In other countries they do it differently. In Russia and France, as I understand the procedure, the federation dictator (Piseev and Gailhaguet respectively) just send who they want, too bad for those skaters that are not in favor. (Maybe this is too harsh an evaluation, but that is my impression.)

Frankly, I like the American way better.

 

[enlight78]

I don't think Flat, protected as she was made much of a case either. But who knew Ashley's two GP's would turn out to be easier than they looked ?

That is exactly why using the GP series is bogus.

Let them skate and compete and show us who is the best under the huge pressure of Natls.

We have always done it that way and in case no one noticed - US Skating has won plenty of Olympic medals over the years.

I think that the who medals gps and who didn't is beside the point. I think it would be wise to take it in account how a skater Performed (not placed) thoughout the season when picking the best team if that is the goal. The way flukes work; weir, lysacek , or abbot could finish off the podium; There is a difference between rewarding cosistancy and backdoor politics;