Everytime Bebe name comes up, it's always for something like this. People, stop being so mean to Bebe. She's human, too. She gets hurt when she falls. She cries when she's doing badly. So give the poor girl a break. Make fun of someone else, like Sasha.
Just HOW will the U.S. teams be picked?
- Thread starter PolymerBob
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Everytime Bebe name comes up, it's always for something like this. People, stop being so mean to Bebe. She's human, too. She gets hurt when she falls. She cries when she's doing badly. So give the poor girl a break. Make fun of someone else, like Sasha.
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- May 15, 2009
Or we could make fun of the skater who reminds us of Jan Brady
Or we could be grownups
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- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
Here are a couple of interesting cases in men and pairs.
In 1997 Dan Hollander edged out two-time U.S. champion and 1994 Olympian Scott Davis for the bronze medal at U.S. Nationals. Davis was fourth.
Since 1997 Worlds would determine how many places the U.S. would get in the 1998 Olympics, there was quite a bit of talk that the USFSA should send the proven champion to Worlds rather than Hollander.
It was all just talk. Hollander was third, Davis was fouth, end of discussion. Hollander went to Worlds and Davis stayed home. (This decision did not work out so well. Hollander did not land a single triple jump in the qualifying round and did not even qualify to skate the short program. The U.S. ended up with only two spots for men in the 1998 Olympics.)
In pairs in 2006, with only two Olympic spots available, Hinzman and Parchem came from behind to edge defending U.S. champs Orscher and Lucash for second place behind Inoue and Baldwin. Orscher and Lucash were the better team, and most people expected them to repeat as champions, but they made some uncharacteristic mistakes in the long program and narrowly fell to third. Hinzman and Parchem went to the Olympics, Orscher and Lucash did not.
Orscher and Lucash were so discouraged over the whole thing that they retired the next year. (Plus they had run out of money and the financial burden of continuing in the sport ended their career.)
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- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
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Nadine - Thanks for the link on Ashley. She has improved so much since switching to Priscilla. She looks to be a contentender.
Unfortunately, Sasha is back and I really think it will be she who gets one of the spots for Vancouver. Rachael will get the other because of her steadfast confidence in herself.
For the boys, MM, I would watch closely at Jeremy to see if his lack of confidence is behind him. The other two are 'old hat' each with lots of fans. They will skate well, and get selected. The other guys still have to prove consistency, and not just a lucky one shot.
We'll see about all of this soon and if Bebe skates her best.
Nadine - Thanks for the link on Ashley. She has improved so much since switching to Priscilla. She looks to be a contentender.
Unfortunately, Sasha is back and I really think it will be she who gets one of the spots for Vancouver. Rachael will get the other because of her steadfast confidence in herself.
For the boys, MM, I would watch closely at Jeremy to see if his lack of confidence is behind him. The other two are 'old hat' each with lots of fans. They will skate well, and get selected. The other guys still have to prove consistency, and not just a lucky one shot.
We'll see about all of this soon and if Bebe skates her best.
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- Feb 17, 2007
I absolutely believe that the two best ladies in nationals should go to olympics. If they can manage the pressure in US they will be more than ready for Vancouver
Sasha & Ashley
How many combinations of Sasha, Rachael, Caroline, Mirai, Ashley and Alissa are there? Let's see, I think it's [ n ( n - 1 ) / 2 ] which would be 6 x 5 / 2 = 15.
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- Nov 12, 2009
How many combinations of Sasha, Rachael, Caroline, Mirai, Ashley and Alissa are there? Let's see, I think it's [ n ( n - 1 ) / 2 ] which would be 6 x 5 / 2 = 15.
Haha, let's fight about it some more
! At this point though, I don't know if Mirai and Caroline even have a real chance. Even if they skate better than everyone else, their scores probably won't be as high 
hwell:. There's still hope though! I think it would be awesome if the team were Caroline and Mirai though :agree:How many combinations of Sasha, Rachael, Caroline, Mirai, Ashley and Alissa are there? Let's see, I think it's [ n ( n - 1 ) / 2 ] which would be 6 x 5 / 2 = 15.
Yes, that sounds right- 6 choose 2 = 6!/(2!4!) or (6*5*4*3*2*1)/(4*3*2*1*2*1) so after canceling out you're left with (6*5)/(2*1) which is 30/2 or 15. 15 possibilities.
If we had three spots
then it would be 6 choose 3 = 6!/(3!3!) or (6*5*4*3*2*1)/(3*2*1) or 120/6 = 20 possibilities. If my math is correct that is.Since I'm bored, I decided to do it for the case that Cohen drops out and there are 5 contenders.
5 choose 2: (5*4)/(2*1) = 10 possibilities
5 choose 3: (5*4*3)/(3*2*1) Also 10 possibilities! (Surprised?)
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ITA. It would be great if Wagner could get one of the Oly spots- she had a really good chance without Cohen in the picture and probably still does, actually- Rachel should be at the top of her game or risk missing out...
Who could win the event? IF Cohen competes, then it's easy to throw her name out there. But she's such a wildcard that she could easily bomb under the pressure of returning, etc. Is Flatt still the favorite to win? Is Wagner still that dark horse? Or does Nagasu have something up her sleeve after improving at SC? Maybe Zhang will thrive without the spotlight shining on her as brightly. Or Alyssa will want to show everyone her Nats win last year wasn't a fluke, but her Worlds appearance was. Questions all waiting to be answered- in less than 2 weeks
To be fair, Rachael earned the US 2 spots.
Leave it to Alissa to earn 1 spot like Carolina Kostner for Italy.
For that sole reason, Alissa is disqualified from going to the Olympics.
Same story with Ashley Wagner. She was the reason for only 2 spots at the 2009 World. She should be barred from going to the Olympics.
So you have Mirai, Caroline, Rachael.
3 chooses 2, 3 possible combination.
Rachael automatically gets one of the two spots she fought for.
So, 2 possible combination.
A few months ago, I would send Rachael and Caroline.
Right now, Rachael and Mirai.
The other ladies can watch it on the telly and play "guess how many UR Mirai gets hit with" or "guess how many ft Rachael travels in her last combo spin"
To be fair, Rachael earned the US 2 spots.
Leave it to Alissa to earn 1 spot like Carolina Kostner for Italy.
For that sole reason, Alissa is disqualified from going to the Olympics.
Same story with Ashley Wagner. She was the reason for only 2 spots at the 2009 World. She should be barred from going to the Olympics.
So you have Mirai, Caroline, Rachael.
3 chooses 2, 3 possible combination.
Rachael automatically gets one of the two spots she fought for.
So, 2 possible combination.
A few months ago, I would send Rachael and Caroline.
Right now, Rachael and Mirai.
The other ladies can watch it on the telly and play "guess how many UR Mirai gets hit with" or "guess how many ft Rachael travels in her last combo spin"
Well yeah, I suppose I'd pick Czisny as the weak link given her competitive history, but Zhang and Nagasu have not done much more to convince me that they should ABSOLUTELY go over Czisny should the situation arise.
Wagner I think is in the middle. She did well for herself but she also benefited from lackluster fields and the top skaters in the event bombing. If they don't bomb she will not be so lucky...
Flatt is the most reliable, but also the most "average" it seems. She should AT LEAST go to Worlds if not the Olys.
Cohen is the question mark. It is looking more and more like she will end up in Spokane after all but whether she actually steps on competitive ice is still a question mark. How she will perform is a complete mystery box. If she's up to 2006 standards she should easily get on the team, perhaps easily win too, barring an SOHL from Flatt. If she melts down, though- the other girls could and should take advantage of the situation to shut her out of Olys. But she is known for strong SPs and if she is handed a big score for her SP, the other girls could be fighting for only ONE spot (yes, depressing to think about!)
Hughes is another question mark, but at this point only the miracle of miracles could get her on the team. I think it is safe to leave her out of the equation- at least until the SP concludes.
Zhang- I think her chances are not as high as some of the others, just based on her past history at Nationals. Even at her best, she could be outperformed by two or more other skaters and left off the team.
Nagasu- people keep writing "2014" in front of her name. But she has as good a shot as any to change that 4 to a 0. That said, I think she will have to rely on mistakes from the other Contenders (or a strong SP- we know she's capable of those as well) to help her out.
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- Jun 21, 2003
No, because out of five, choosing which two make the team is the same as choosing which three do not make the team.
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- Jul 11, 2003
I would not call Sasha a 'wild card'. She has too much going for her.
Bebe is the 'wild card'. She has the 5 basic triples (keep an eye on the 3F) I think she has clean combos also. However,I don't think the Cttee will pick her due to her past performance with the faulty 3F, and letting the rest of her routine go down the drain. But hey, she may have conquered that.
Bebe is the 'wild card'. She has the 5 basic triples (keep an eye on the 3F) I think she has clean combos also. However,I don't think the Cttee will pick her due to her past performance with the faulty 3F, and letting the rest of her routine go down the drain. But hey, she may have conquered that.
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- May 15, 2009
Let me take this compelling logig a little further:
1: Rachel should not go to the Olys because she cost the US the 3rd spot by not placing at least second.
2: Czisny should definitely be a lock for a spot because by placing in the top 23 she earned the 2nd sport for the US.
Now, let's figure out the man:
In 2008. It was besides Johnny Weir, Stephen Carriere, who by placing 10th secured 3 spots for the 2009 worlds.
That in turn made it possible for Evan to go and become 2009 World Champion and secure the three spots for this year (together with Abbott)
Now obviously Johnny and Evan have to get two spots. Between Abbott and Carriere we obviously habe to give Carriere the spots because he made it possible for Evan, who was the main contributor in 2009, to secure the spots for this year.
I wonder why they really bother to skate Nationals. It can all be inferred by past results and spots earned.
You should win the GS "Best post of the week" for your brilliant insight.....: :yes:
wb K
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- Nov 12, 2009
I think Mirai and Frank Carol have something up their sleeves. I don't know why, but just from the interactions I've seen recently it seems like they are up to something. Maybe this means 2014 but I'm not so sure. I heard from someone who visited her rink that Mirai was doing 3f-3t combinations (though the viewer said they appeared to be UR).
One thing Mirai has going for her is that she won nationals two years in a row, if she is good, the judges will give her good scores. She also has been able to get a good SP score internationally, her 62 at Russia was better than what Rachael, Ashley, and Caroline get internationally.
So i'm seeing a situation where, if Sasha withdraws or is not up to snuff, Mirai wins the SP with a decent margin over Rachael, Ashley, and Caroline after Alissa makes mistakes due to pressure and is farther down, say 5th or 7th. Then in the FS, Rachael can will and be 1st overall. Caroline and Alissa are not to worrisome as their FS scores usually aren't the best, but even if they are slightly higher than Mirai's FS scores, her margin in the SP is greater than that so Mirai is ahead of them. Then there's just Ashley, who will probably score higher than Mirai in the FS, so it comes down to how good her short is; if she makes mistakes and is really far down like last year, Mirai should beat her, if she is clean, it could go either way. If Mirai gets a 65 in the SP though and Ashley gets say a 59, then she could still beat her if Ashley gets a 115 in the FS and she gets a 110. Then Mirai is in 2nd and she goes to the Olympics :agree: . I don't find any of this too unplausible.
One thing Mirai has going for her is that she won nationals two years in a row, if she is good, the judges will give her good scores. She also has been able to get a good SP score internationally, her 62 at Russia was better than what Rachael, Ashley, and Caroline get internationally.
So i'm seeing a situation where, if Sasha withdraws or is not up to snuff, Mirai wins the SP with a decent margin over Rachael, Ashley, and Caroline after Alissa makes mistakes due to pressure and is farther down, say 5th or 7th. Then in the FS, Rachael can will and be 1st overall. Caroline and Alissa are not to worrisome as their FS scores usually aren't the best, but even if they are slightly higher than Mirai's FS scores, her margin in the SP is greater than that so Mirai is ahead of them. Then there's just Ashley, who will probably score higher than Mirai in the FS, so it comes down to how good her short is; if she makes mistakes and is really far down like last year, Mirai should beat her, if she is clean, it could go either way. If Mirai gets a 65 in the SP though and Ashley gets say a 59, then she could still beat her if Ashley gets a 115 in the FS and she gets a 110. Then Mirai is in 2nd and she goes to the Olympics :agree: . I don't find any of this too unplausible.
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Except that it's neither compelling nor logical. A little further backward, perhaps.
Nobody expected Flatt to place second, third, fourth, fifth.
Everyone expected Alissa to stumble along the way to a respectable top 10 finish. Afterall, a reigning US champ has never placed that low.
Together with Brandon Mroz who placed in the top 10, btw.
Please explain why it's obvious Johnny has to get a spot? I see no reason for him to get a spot. He hasn't proven himself the same way Wagner hasn't proven herself. He was competing when the big names withdrew or melt down. Well, they're back.
Past results should be taken into account. It's sport. running average, past stats are a package deal. What's there to wonder/ponder?
Hey, did anyone read this thread in the FSU universe that compared Flatt to Hughes and speculates about the chance that she may steal gold? It's very unlikely to happen, but it's kinda interesting.
http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?t=70456
http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?t=70456
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- Jun 21, 2003
I think you mean, past results should NOT be taken into account. IT'S SPORT.
Win and go on, lose and go home. :yes:
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