Interesting discussion.
1. Will the Men's OGM have/need a quad? I think so and yes, I'll give credit to Plushenko here. It's not merely that he lands them - but he lands them consistently and gets huge GOES. Whatever flaws he has in his skating, he can make up for them there. wonderlen3000 mentioned that the TES on a Quad + 7 triple program > an eight triple program, but Jeff Buttle in 2008 already proved otherwise. And Evan Lysacek reminded us of that last year.
2. Oh, goodness, the idea of Verner skating clean! Seriously, if he does, I think he'd win - he's just that good. But his recent results worry me - not just the GP, but his own Nationals too. But I love his short program, and like his long program a great deal - I think I'd place him just behind Takahashi in that regard.
3. Truth be told, I sorta hope that the OGM doesn't have a quad. I didn't grow up watching figure skating under 6.0 (not regularly, anyway) so I don't value it as much as everyone else. Plus it's be really funny to come here and read everyone bemoaning the state of men's figure skating because the gold medalist didn't rotate four times in the air. Especially if the silver medalist does.