U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

[R.D.]

there must be confusion. Was there supposed to be a tennis thread? Remember, let's keep this about US ladies speculation please.

Janetfan, to answer your question she's in school (college) now, as a full-time student I believe. It has been all but officially confirmed that she will not compete this season.

 

[SerpentineSteps]

there must be confusion. Was there supposed to be a tennis thread? Remember, let's keep this about US ladies speculation please.

Janetfan, to answer your question she's in school (college) now, as a full-time student I believe. It has been all but officially confirmed that she will not compete this season.

I feel like, as figure-skating fans, we're all a bit ADD in that we get distracted easily... by shiny things, included but not limited to sequin-studded figure-skating costumes (and tennis, apparently).

 

[R.D.]

And to steer things back to the current ladies :

You are probably right, but that coin has another side. If another lady manages to bump Mirai or Rachael off the World team next year, she will really have earned it. She will be on the World team having received no favors from any quarter.

I agree. Flatt and Nagasu are (as of now) the USA's two leaders. There has been recent talk about Flatt's LP being completely uninspiring, and I will reserve judgment until I see it- but I hope we don't have a repeat of 2009 where she is scored low even when she hits all the jumps, and has to go revert to the previous year's FS to be competitive again.

This may be Wagner's last opportunity to really take a shot at a National title, because starting next season I think the up-and-coming girls will begin to put up strong competition. Every National winner since 2006 has been a first-time winner- not looking good for Flatt to repeat next year (sorry Flatt fans) but maybe Nagasu could grab a 2nd if she can skate like she did last year...

 

[Olympia]

Janetfan, to answer your question she's in school (college) now, as a full-time student I believe. It has been all but officially confirmed that she will not compete this season.

I'm sorry Kimmie won't be competing, but the schoolmarm in me is glad she's in college. I'm always happy when I hear about skaters continuing their education, whether they remain in competition or not. After all, with very few exceptions, even champion skaters can't make a lifetime career of skating, and it's great that they develop other capacities. Besides, education for its own sake is a wonderful thing.

 

[janetfan]

there must be confusion. Was there supposed to be a tennis thread? Remember, let's keep this about US ladies speculation please.

Janetfan, to answer your question she's in school (college) now, as a full-time student I believe. It has been all but officially confirmed that she will not compete this season.

For pete's sake, a post or two with breaking news about the US Open Ladies Championship is not going to end the world.
Unless one does have a serious case of ADD it shouldn't cause much confusion or anguish.

Besides, it segued nicely to news about Kimmie Meisner.........

Back on topic - I just read that Kristiene Gong (130) won the silver at the JPG event in Romania behind Elizaveta (132).

Kristiene Gong is the skater who just beat Rachael the Glacier Falls summer competition.
She was formerly training with Ming Li and is now with Frank Carroll.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkZGaxRApa0

 

[PolymerBob]

Hopefully it will be the same for Mirai, Rachael and all of them.
No favors and no padding the scores either.

Rachael and Mirai deserve no favors. What has either of them ever won on the international stage to earn any favors?

What have they won? That’s a good question. Let’s take a quick look at the state of U.S. ladies’ skating in recent years. ( This discussion excludes junior events, B-level events and the World Team Trophy. )

The last time a U.S. lady won the Grand Prix Final was Sasha in 2002.
The last time a U.S. lady medaled at the GPF was Sasha in 2003.
The last time a U.S. lady won or medaled at Worlds was Sasha and Kimmie in 2006.
The last time a U.S. lady won an ISU championship was Kimmie at the 2007 4CC.
The last time a U.S. lady medaled at an ISU championship was What’s-Her-Name at the 2010 4CC. Before that, it was Kimmie at the 2007 4CC. ( Yes, it had been 3 years. )
The last time a U.S. lady won any ISU event was Kimmie at the 2007 Skate America.

Among our current ladies, assuming Sasha has retired, only Alissa has won an ISU event. That was the 2005 Skate Canada. None of them have won an ISU championship, and only one has a championship medal. It would have been two if Bebe had not retired.

So that’s pretty much where we stand at the moment. It seems a sad state of affairs. But there is an old expression …….
“It’s always darkest before the dawn.”

 

[ManyCairns]

Wow, thanks for that breakdown, PolymerBob. I didn't realize we'd had such a drought.

 

[Layfan]

Hopefully it will be the same for Mirai, Rachael and all of them.
No favors and no padding the scores either.

Rachael and Mirai deserve no favors. What has either of them ever won on the international stage to earn any favors?

Atleast Caroline has won a bronze at 4CC and finished third (and ahead of Rachael) at WTT.
Does that mean she deserves any favors?

No, like I said, Rachael and Mirai will both have to skate very well to be on the team. I only meant that those two have the advantage in so far as subconscious favoritism influences the judges, which it must, although to what degree with we never know. I don't think the judges will go in their with some kind of plan in mind. If Alexis Gilles skates better than Mirai and Rachael at nationals, I think she'll go to worlds.

As far as Caroline's bronze goes ... I imagine you are just trying to make a point. Such a prestigious event. Who can forget how Jenny Kirk once defeated Shizuka Arakawa at that contest ...
Anyway, I hope this is Caroline's year for something more than the 4CC. It was horrible to see her suffering so much last year. Her skating is really beautiful in someways.

 

[R.D.]

Speaking of Mirai... per her latest tweet she is back on the ice

I've been walking like a penguin because I'm so sore. I've missed you ice skating

http://twitter.com/mirai_nagasu/status/24266124627

 

[Layfan]

What have they won? That’s a good question. Let’s take a quick look at the state of U.S. ladies’ skating in recent years. ( This discussion excludes junior events, B-level events and the World Team Trophy. )

The last time a U.S. lady won the Grand Prix Final was Sasha in 2002.
The last time a U.S. lady medaled at the GPF was Sasha in 2003.
The last time a U.S. lady won or medaled at Worlds was Sasha and Kimmie in 2006.
The last time a U.S. lady won an ISU championship was Kimmie at the 2007 4CC.
The last time a U.S. lady medaled at an ISU championship was What’s-Her-Name at the 2010 4CC. Before that, it was Kimmie at the 2007 4CC. ( Yes, it had been 3 years. )
The last time a U.S. lady won any ISU event was Kimmie at the 2007 Skate America.

Among our current ladies, assuming Sasha has retired, only Alissa has won an ISU event. That was the 2005 Skate Canada. None of them have won an ISU championship, and only one has a championship medal. It would have been two if Bebe had not retired.

So that’s pretty much where we stand at the moment. It seems a sad state of affairs. But there is an old expression …….
“It’s always darkest before the dawn.”

Oh dear...

Well, Rachael has a decent shot at breaking the drought at SA. Her biggest competition seems to be the ever-unreliable Laura Lepisto and Carolina Kostner.

 

[janetfan]

Oh dear...

Well, Rachael has a decent shot at breaking the drought at SA. Her biggest competition seems to be the ever-unreliable Laura Lepisto and Carolina Kostner.

Laura is injured but hopefully makes a quick recovery. A revived Caroline Zhang is a possibilty as well at SA.

 

[bekalc]

Still, at the end of the day, I think the U.S. judges will want to send Rachael and Mirai to worlds. Which is not to say that they won't have to skate extremely well at nats to make sure they are on the team.
But I think if there are any two skaters the judges will subconciously want to reward it will be those two - based on their Olympic performances. I think they will both be forgiven for their mistakes at worlds, even if it did mean we didn't get our three spots back. I think everyone understands it was their third major competition in a row and that you can't be perfect all of the time. But the way Rachael and Mirai performed at their first Olympics will not be forgotten and NONE of the other girls have anything even close to that under their belts

I disagree here a bit. I think that Mirai has earned something with the US judges because Mirai showed that she can not only skate well at a big event, but that she can be a top skater. She DID get first at Worlds in the short too. So I think that Mirai has some breathing room with the US judges.

I really don't think Rachael has the same breathing room because I think the international judges have made it clear that they aren't in love with Rachael's skating. And I think Rachael is going to need a lot of mistakes from people to make world podiums. To be frank I can see someone like Russia's Ksensia completely pass Rachael this year now that she has the 3lutz.

If someone like Agnes is well received by the international judges on the GP series, I can see the US judges bypassing Rachael for Agnes. To be quite frank: Why not?
This being said while I think Mirai has some breathing room, it will only be for so long.

And as for Rachael winning Skate America, I'll point out that Murakami will be there too. And while I don't love Kanako's jumping technique (Flatt will have an advantage there). If Kanako is skating well she should fairly score quite a lot higher than Rachael in PCS. Murakami has wonderful skating skills, speed, flow across the ice and expression.

 

[janetfan]

I disagree here a bit. I think that Mirai has earned something with the US judges because Mirai showed that she can not only skate well at a big event, but that she can be a top skater. She DID get first at Worlds in the short too. So I think that Mirai has some breathing room with the US judges.

I really don't think Rachael has the same breathing room because I think the international judges have made it clear that they aren't in love with Rachael's skating. And I think Rachael is going to need a lot of mistakes from people to make world podiums. To be frank I can see someone like Russia's Ksensia completely pass Rachael this year now that she has the 3lutz.

If someone like Agnes is well received by the international judges on the GP series, I can see the US judges bypassing Rachael for Agnes. To be quite frank: Why not?
This being said while I think Mirai has some breathing room, it will only be for so long.

I kind of see it like that as well. If Rachael is leaving after this season she might be the last one US Skating would show any "favors" too. They should have their eyes on the next few season and not just this season.

 

[Blades of Passion]

There has been recent talk about Flatt's LP being completely uninspiring, and I will reserve judgment until I see it- but I hope we don't have a repeat of 2009 where she is scored low even when she hits all the jumps

You're still hung up about 2009 Nationals? And she didn't hit all the jumps, her 3-3 was underrotated.

That program, and her performance even more so, were complete trash. She literally did nothing except go from element to element and none of those elements were good quality. Small jumps, mediocore spins and spirals, extremely slow across the ice, NO expression at all...people make such a fuss about Alissa only landing 3 Triples but then ignore that every other aspect of her skating was in a whole different universe.

 

[bekalc]

I kind of see it like that as well. If Rachael is leaving after this season she might be the last one US Skating would show any "favors" too. They should have their eyes on the next few season and not just this season.

They may be thinking 3 spots for next year but then again Rachael didn't get them 3 spots at Worlds this either. IF Agnes shows she can handle pressure, and is well received by the judges why not. I actually think Agnes will be liked better than Rachael. She has some of Rachaels issues in terms of being slow. But she's much better presentation wise, and her jumps are frankly huge. There's a WOW quality to Agnes' skating that Rachael doesn't have. I wish they'd get Agnes to a coach that could work on her stroking/skating skills. Or Tom Z would hire someone who would work with Agnes A LOT on that area. I'm not sure Mirai's jumps are ever going to be technically perfect, and I have a feeling Mirai may always be a bit at the mercy of callers. Agnes though....

Small jumps, mediocore spins and spirals, extremely slow across the ice, NO expression at all...people make such a fuss about Alissa only landing 3 Triples but then ignore that every other aspect of her skating was in a whole different universe.

People made the fuss because while all of the above is true, they also knew that there was no way Alissa would get those kind of PCS or PCS advantage over Flatt and Zhang at an international competition with that type of skate. And that the other two were the better team in relation to earning 3 spots for the Olympics. And considering both girls beat Alissa at Four Continents and Zhang's scores at WTT, I don't think we were wrong.

 

[janetfan]

They may be thinking 3 spots for next year but then again Rachael didn't get them 3 spots at Worlds this either. IF Agnes shows she can handle pressure, and is well received by the judges why not. I actually think Agnes will be liked better than Rachael. She has some of Rachaels issues in terms of being slow. But she's much better presentation wise, and her jumps are frankly huge. There's a WOW quality to Agnes' skating that Rachael doesn't have. I wish they'd get Agnes to a coach that could work on her stroking/skating skills. Or Tom Z would hire someone who would work with Agnes A LOT on that area. I'm not sure Mirai's jumps are ever going to be technically perfect, and I have a feeling Mirai may always be a bit at the mercy of callers. Agnes though....

I like Frank getting Mirai's jumps consistent more than believing Elizaveta will land 3A's - particulary after she grows. Mirai has been through her growth spurt, lost a year - but came back with some stong performances last season. Besides, we know if her rep continues to grow judges will look at her a little more leniently. Doesn't make it right but just watch Miki and Rachael's SP from Vancouver. They got away with some sloppy jumps .

 

[bekalc]

I like Frank getting Mirai's jumps consistent more than believing Elizaveta will land 3A's - particulary after she grows. Mirai has been through her growth spurt, lost a year - but came back with some stong performances last season. Besides, we know if her rep continues to grow judges will look at her a little more leniently. Doesn't make it right but just watch Miki and Rachael's SP from Vancouver. They got away with murder .

Frank hasn't been able to clean up Laney Diggs jumps, Evan's jumps (he got judged leniently on his rotations) As for Elizaveta, if Mao was able to keep her 3axels after puberty, why do you assume Tukt won't. Liza has much better jumping technique than Mao does at Maos' age, and the clip of her 3axel was better than Mao's 3axels. Mishin also supposedly looked at her parents before he took her on. She's not expected to get that much taller or bigger.

Its not like Tukt muscles her jumps the way lets say Meissner did. Her jumps have speed, height. And you can have issues with a lot of things Mishin may do, but the man is probably the best jumping coach in the world. I wouldn't bet against Mishin's ability to teach jumps.

I do agree about the lenient thing..

 

[Blades of Passion]

People made the fuss because while all of the above is true, they also knew that there was no way Alissa would get those kind of PCS or PCS advantage over Flatt and Zhang at an international competition with that type of skate. And that the other two were the better team in relation to earning 3 spots for the Olympics. And considering both girls beat Alissa at Four Continents and Zhang's scores at WTT, I don't think we were wrong.

I don't care if Alissa wouldn't get that PCS advantage over Flatt and Zhang in international competition (which is untrue, if they performed like they did at Nationals - the judges most definitely would have rated Czisny much higher) - she deserved that PCS at Nationals.

 

[janetfan]

Frank hasn't been able to clean up Laney Diggs jumps, Evan's jumps (he got judged leniently on his rotations) As for Elizaveta, if Mao was able to keep her 3axels after puberty, why do you assume Tukt won't. Liza has much better jumping technique than Mao does at Maos' age, and the clip of her 3axel was better than Mao's 3axels. Mishin also supposedly looked at her parents before he took her on. She's not expected to get that much taller or bigger.

Its not like Tukt muscles her jumps the way lets say Meissner did. Her jumps have speed, height. And you can have issues with a lot of things Mishin may do, but the man is probably the best jumping coach in the world. I wouldn't bet against Mishin's ability to teach jumps.

I do agree about the lenient thing..

Well let's just say that before we worry about Elizaveta keeping her 3A after puberty we might need to see a few landed in competition before puberty.

A practice clip is about the most meaningless thing in the world. Practice jumps, like Patrick's quad do not impress me all that much. It has been a couple of seasons for Patrick's "practice quad" and I still don;t think he has ever tried one in an ISU competition. Evan was shown landing quads in "practice" before Natls and then when it counted......

I would not compare Laney to Mirai........or almost all of the guys Mishin has trained to Plushy.
Mishin's skaters the past few season have been of the radar and a non-factor. No style and lacking any type of jump consistency.

 

[R.D.]

You're still hung up about 2009 Nationals? And she didn't hit all the jumps, her 3-3 was underrotated.

That program, and her performance even more so, were complete trash. She literally did nothing except go from element to element and none of those elements were good quality. Small jumps, mediocore spins and spirals, extremely slow across the ice, NO expression at all...people make such a fuss about Alissa only landing 3 Triples but then ignore that every other aspect of her skating was in a whole different universe.

Why so defensive? I'm trying to make a point that if she indeed has another mediocre FS this season, even if she hits the jumps she could find herself off the World team if the others step it up. That's a real possibility, and I think I alluded to it in earlier posts in this thread.