U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

[janetfan]

No, Agnes won the LP too. They both landed 7 triples and Agnes scored 124+ while Rachael scored 117+.

Thanks Silverlake. BTW, do you anything about Agnes working on a 3A? Is it a jump she has trained before or am I mistaken about that?

 

[Olympia]

I have to say, I am not worried about the future of U.S. ladies at all.

First, if a Japanese or a Finish skater can simultaneously touch our hearts and deliver the technical goods, and if she ends up winning a gold medal – what’s so bad about that?

That's certainly true. This Olympics was an example for me. The two skaters I was principally rooting for were YuNa and Mao, because both of them, as you say, touched my heart and delivered the technical goods (and how!). I was happy with Mirai's wonderful achievements, but for me that was extra trimmings. I wanted with all my heart to see YuNa and Mao at their best, because their best was of a quality we seldom get to see.

I had over a decade of rooting with the same intensity for American skaters, Michelle and Sasha, and I'd be happy to have that chance again, but at this moment no one gives me that exhilaration in the way that YuNa and Mao do.

 

[chipso1]

I agree with your thoughts on this - but Rachael lost to Agnes because she messed up her SP where did did miss jumps. I think Rachael won the LP and lost the SP by a wide margin.

Nope, Agnes beat her in both segments.

SP: Zawadzki (62.45), Flatt (46.18)
FS: Zawadzki (124.56), Flatt (117.21)
Overall: Zawadzki (187.01), Flatt (163.39)

ETA: About the 3Axel, it's my understanding that Agnes was training them this summer on a regular basis.

 

[bigsisjiejie]

There's one aspect to it we haven't considered. Kids don't train themselves. Coaches train kids. It's up to coaches to know what's required of skaters, and if there are still any coaches saying, "Just land the jumps and smile," those coaches should pass the more promising skaters on to another coach.

Michelle was a gem, but she was also in the hands of a master jeweler, Frank Carroll. He made sure she had meticulous jumping and skating technique. (I heard somewhere at the beginning of CoP that footage of Michelle's edging was given to technical coaches as an exemplar. I don't think I made this up.) He took care to keep her footwork and other ankles-down technique at the highest level. And of course he obtained the services of Lori Nichol, who elevated Kwan's routines beyond the realm of the ordinary. Kwan was their greatest muse. They in return (to mix a metaphor) were her Merlins. The three of them certainly deserved one another. Lucky for all of us!

Sasha had an amazing amount of promise. She didn't always hold up under stress, but she did miles better than most other "head-case" skaters: multiple world silver medals, Olympic silver, top-five finish at least all through her senior career. She had John Nicks in her formative years, and as a result she not only skated jumps well enough to land them most of the time, but she had s gorgeous layback position and pointed toes. Dick Button and Peggy Fleming praised her when she was fourteen, and they weren't wrong.

Caroline Zhang was also a gem. Who let her get away with that gosh-awful jump technique? Can you believe that this girl at the age of fourteen would have told a coach, "This is how I skate, and you have to live with it"? I doubt that. A coach should have been telling her what to do. So how did she end up falling down off the precipice after such a promising start? Puberty doesn't begin to explain it. I'm not entirely sure CoP explains it either, because Miki, Mao, and YuNa seem to be doing just fine even with CoP. (And Miki has been around since the days of 6.0.)

We have to look at the skaters coming up, but I think at this point, we may also have to look at the coaching. Thank goodness Mirai is now with Frank, and Alissa seems to have made a promising move. For the rest, I hope the U.S. program cottons to whatever we're not doing enough of and can change as needed.

I agree with the general premise of this post--the coaching is one of the most critical parts. And I think the majority of good "old school" coaches (i.e. Carroll, Nicks, etc.) can get their skaters properly trained whether under 6.0 or COP systems. Also remember than when Kwan turned Senior (1993-ish?), she would have come up through figures, maybe not to USFSA 8th Test, but certainly back then you had to pass at least 3rd Test Figures + Senior Freestyle to get to that level. Even after figures weren't competed anymore. I've always thought that skaters who went through even the lower figure test levels just had better overall body control, including upper body control not only edge work. Today's good young skaters seem to have a harder time knowing what to do with themselves from the waist up.

On Caroline Zhang...I'm positive I read an interview done somewhere a few years ago, where she admitted that somewhere around USFS intermediate level, she was coachless for a long time. My guess is that is the period where she grew into some really bad habits that defied later correcting. She would have working on the harder doubles and starting her triples about then. Mingzhu Li (and puberty) came after this, but there is no doubt in mind that one reason this relationship went on for so long was that Caroline (and/or Mama Zhang) could push Miss Li around and when it was too hard to fix technique items, just dig in and refuse to do it. Oh yes, I can entirely see this scenario. I don't think Mingzhu Li was blind to Caroline's technical issues, and her former pupil Lu Chen had none of these problems. But based on the last 2-3 years, it's pretty evident this coach-skater relationship had become a bit dysfunctional, if you want to go by lack of progress. A "tough" coach like a Frank Carroll would not have put up with this, and under someone like him, either Caroline would have straightened up and flown right, or left within the first few weeks.

A coach should be a coach. Not a parent, not a confidant, not a significant other, and certainly not a "friend" or peer. I think the best coaches keep these boundaries pretty well defined. And particularly for skaters still in their teens.

 

[Olympia]

Thanks, bigsisjiejie. Both parts of your post are very helpful.

I've heard over and over again about the "collateral" benefits that school figures bestowed on skaters in terms of body control and of course edging. As for Caroline, her coachless years explain a lot. You also mention a factor I hadn't considered (here's where my lack of skating experience affects my ability to analyze the situation): a young skater might not be able to boss a coach around, but the skater's parent could certainly give it a try. That makes complete sense in this situation. Especially in a country like the States, where skating isn't a government-run program, each coach probably stands alone, without much backup from the powers that be. A strong personality such as Frank Carroll is able to call the shots more effectively. But every coach isn't Frank Carroll.

 

[PolymerBob]

And third, we’ve got Mirai, the second best active skater in the world, after Mao. Today, world silver – tomorrow, maybe Mao will break her leg.

It's not my intent to be negative, but I will need a little help here. Mirai failed to make the GP Final, finished 4th at the Olympics and 7th at Worlds. How does this make the "second best active skater in the world"?

 

[silverlake22]

It's not my intent to be negative, but I will need a little help here. Mirai failed to make the GP Final, finished 4th at the Olympics and 7th at Worlds. How does this make the "second best active skater in the world"?

Yu Na is a question mark, Lepisto's injured, Kostner is incredibly inconsistent, and she's better than the rest of the US ladiezz. So I guess that just leaves Miki, who Mirai beat at the Olympics, but I mean they are pretty comparable so to put either one above the other is reasonable.

 

[janetfan]

Second, I do not quite see the point in using the reputations of famous skaters of the past to beat up on the current generation. They are doing the best they can. It seems a little weird to rag on about, “You’re not as good as Peggy Fleming, how dare you call yourself U.S. champion!”

:

Tell you what - if it makes you feel any better I will say Rachael does not compare favorably to CURRENT skaters like Yuna and Mao. Does that make it better?

And looking back at the past always seems fine with you as long as it is about Michelle.

I see nothing wrong with looking back. Discussion came up about the scoring systems, the E. German and Japanese skating tradition, Russian prospects, comparisons of eras, and other topics generally discussed at a skating board. There was even a famous quote about Janet and a less than sincere reply about it.

Wondering about the future of US Skating just feels odd and basically impossible for me without considering the past. Reasons were discussed why we were successful in the past and what it might take to get back being as competitive as we used to be.

It was also mentioned that our current girls are not as competitive at Intl events as they were in the past. Our grand champions from the past brought back some nostalgic memories and some of us noted we have dropped a notch competitively.

I see no reason to constantly discuss and compare Michelle but to never mention Peggy, Janet or Dorothy. They were great skaters from our past. Their legacy lives on in certain fans and if Rachael or the others don't measure up then that's just the way it is.

BTW, have you noticed US Skating is making a new film? It is called RISE and it seems US Skating thinks it is important to look back at our great skaters from the past too.

 

[R.D.]

Yu Na is a question mark, Lepisto's injured, Kostner is incredibly inconsistent, and she's better than the rest of the US ladiezz. So I guess that just leaves Miki, who Mirai beat at the Olympics, but I mean they are pretty comparable so to put either one above the other is reasonable.

Let's not forget that Nagasu is injured, too. I'd say she's just as much of a ? as the others you mentioned.

 

[janetfan]

Let's not forget that Nagasu is injured, too. I'd say she's just as much of a ? as the others you mentioned.

Mirai was injured. Unless there is a new report she has been back on the ice for several weeks (didn't Mirai say she could have returned sooner but it was decided to be careful and let her stress fracture have extra time to heal?)

It is certainly possible Mirai might not be razor sharp at her 1st GP event but if she stays healthy she should be fine by the second and certainly by Natls.

At the moment I believe it is wrong for a few of you to continue saying Mirai is injured when the last we heard was that she was healthy and back to training around Sept. 1st.

Please link any new info if you have it or else try not to spread rumors about skaters.

BTW, Evan had a similar injury last Spring, took time off and went on to win the GPF and the OGM.

 

[R.D.]

I know that, but you basically know what I mean. She is recovering from injury and is not at 100%- she can't possibly be at this point. My point still stands- I just don't think she'll be there by the time the GP rolls around- and thus, I don't think she will make the GPF.

BTW- wasn't I the one to mention her tweet about getting back on the ice? Yes, she said she wanted to rest her foot a little longer so I still considered her "injured" at that point.

 

[PolymerBob]

...... and she's better than the rest of the US ladiezz.

Well, yes and no. Mirai was in 5 major events last season. Of those, she was top U.S. lady in 2 of them.
I may be in the minority here, but I don't think we have a top U.S. lady at the moment.

 

[janetfan]

I know that, but you basically know what I mean. She is recovering from injury and is not at 100%- she can't possibly be at this point. My point still stands- I just don't think she'll be there by the time the GP rolls around- and thus, I don't think she will make the GPF.

BTW- wasn't I the one to mention her tweet about getting back on the ice? Yes, she said she wanted to rest her foot a little longer so I still considered her "injured" at that point.

I think it was you and if I recall she said she was resuming training Sept 1st - almost a month ago.

Maybe I knew knew what you meant - but a couple keep saying Mirai is injured. I doubt that Frank would have her back skating if she is still injured.

Thus it is more accurate to say Mirai was injured. Afaik, just about every skater goes through periods of being injured - figure skating is a dangerous sport

 

[silverlake22]

Well, yes and no. Mirai was in 5 major events last season. Of those, she was top U.S. lady in 2 of them.
I may be in the minority here, but I don't think we have a top U.S. lady at the moment.

I like to think of it this way, if any other US lady competed 2 clean programs at the Olympics no way would they have finished 4th. They just wouldn't have. I mean, Zhang or Czisny or Wagner finishing ahead of Ando, Lepisto, and Suzuki? That just would not have happened.

 

[silverlake22]

About the 3a, I believe both Agnes and Rachael were working on it this summer.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

Didn't Czisny beat Suzuki at Skate Canada?

 

[Tinymavy15]

About the 3a, I believe both Agnes and Rachael were working on it this summer.

Mirai also worked on them and so did yuna at one point. working on a few with a harness is not the same as doing it in competition. i would be stunned if either girl tries one in competition.

 

[janetfan]

Pardon the consecutive posts, but I wanted to go back and thank fairly4 for this contribution. I don't know whether it is true or not (I hope not), but at least it offers a reason -- however speculative -- why some factions in the USFSA might want to promote Rachael's fortunes at the expense of others'.

I have been racking my brain throughout this discussion trying to come up with any straw to base a conspiracy theory on (I guess I am not imaginative or devious enough).

Actually go back and check a previous post you made - the one where you said you thought the US judges "piled on points" for Rachael in the pcs after her LP.

Go back and watch the SP and think "NBC" who made it obvious in their promos that they wanted Sasha to make the Olympic team.

Listen to Scott - a big Sasha booster (she has been a headliner for SOI for many years) point out mistakes on her jumps in the SP. Then look at the scores after the SP.

This is not rocket science mm - it is just figure skating. You have already admitted that you don't think Rachael is Mirai's equal in the pcs and neither did the Intl judges in Vancouver.

There was a big dispute in 1980 at Natls. Many skating experts thought Lisa Marie won - but US judges gave the title to Linda so they could send who they thought was the most reliable skater to Lake Placid as the Natl champion.

I think we saw that and more at 2010 Natls. A failed comeback, and a new Natl champion whose title was disputed by many skating experts.

Do you have a theory as to why so many skating experts thought the wrong girl won at Natls? Does it really take alot of imagination to see why they thought so? :think:

 

[Mathman]

Do you have a theory as to why so many skating experts thought the wrong girl won at Natls? Does it really take alot of imagination to see why they thought so? :think:

I can understand why many people thought Mirai should have won. I thought so myself.

What I still do not understand is this. What do you think the USFSA gains by pushing one skater forward and holding another back? Even politicians have motives for their deviousness.

I am all for robbing banks -- that's where the money is. But who gains from fixing a figure skating contest?

 

[SerpentineSteps]

I can understand why many people thought Mirai should have won. I thought so myself.

What I still do not understand is this. What do you think the USFSA gains by pushing one skater forward and holding another back? Even politicians have motives for their deviousness.

I am all for robbing banks -- that's where the money is. But who gains from fixing a figure skating contest?

Let me preface this by saying that I, too, thought that Mirai should have won that night.

As for an explanation for why they would "deviously" place Rachael ahead of Mirai: because based on the lead-up to the Olympics, it was obvious that Rachael was in the top 2 skaters (i.e. deserved to be on the team due to consistently respectable finishes). As many noted, Mirai was the apparent winner that night, but wasn't a shoo-in at that point due to questions of consistency (as well as the fact that Ashley had made GPF). That way the judges could guarantee that Rachael was on the team (without leaving that up to the committee), and then let the other be chosen by the committee.