U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

[janetfan]

Not so much that. If, based on your ability, you should be the clear winner and you don't do well, you should really reconsider the reason you're competing and what you hope to get out of it. It has nothing to do with Skate Canada and everything to do a competition itself. For example, if 2010 Plushenko/Takahashi/Chan was to go skate at World Juniors and lose, I'd suggest the same thing. Keep in mind that I'm predicting a GREAT year for Czisny, so I think this is a moot point.

Nationals is a lot more competitive than Skate Canada from what I can tell.

Obviously, skaters know what they should do, want to do, and will do moreso than any fan/non-fan posting on an internet board.

Some of us think Alissa may have a good season partly because she has a history of rebounding.
After watching the Japan Open several posters mentioned that Joannie should not retire. In her case she appears to still be a top skater - and for her it might be more a matter of the desire to put in the necessary training time as well as other factors.

I sort of like having Fumie sticking around and see no reason for Alissa to retire. I think she changed coaches because she is serious and still wants to compete. I think if her season is disappointing she will decide what to do after Natls. But Alissa has some motivation too. A good season might be enough to get her back with SOI.

 

[Layfan]

Czisny at her best more than likely would not have done better than 8th at 2009 worlds.

Like Kostner, you really don't know what to expect from her. Good Alyssa or bad Alyssa? Even "good" Alyssa flubs up maybe once or so.

Wuh? Czisny bombed at 09 worlds and came in 9th. How do you figure she wouldn't have been higher than 8th at her best? OTH, Rachael at her best was good enough for 5th at 09 worlds and 7th at the Olympics.... That is why I am curious to see how Czisny would do if she could ever hold it together and skate her best at worlds. But with Rachael, we've seen where she lands internationally when she skates her best.

I really think if Czisny flubs Skate Canada, she should probably retire after this season.

Well, the whole point is that Alissa flubs If she were to skate her absolute best, have the skate of her life, at Skate Canada and finish off the podium, then yes, maybe she should wonder if she should retire. But that hasn't been her problem. Her problem has been that she can't keep it together and have the skate of her life when it counts. So she is sticking around, working for the moment and good for her.

 

[MikiAndoFan#1]

Czisny bombed at 09 worlds and came in 9th.

Alissa was 11th at Worlds 2009.

 

[Layfan]

Alissa was 11th at Worlds 2009.

Oh sorry. But the point is she had a miserable SP so we have yet to see where she would land at her best.

 

[silverlake22]

Wuh? Czisny bombed at 09 worlds and came in 9th. How do you figure she wouldn't have been higher than 8th at her best? OTH, Rachael at her best was good enough for 5th at 09 worlds and 7th at the Olympics.... That is why I am curious to see how Czisny would do if she could ever hold it together and skate her best at worlds. But with Rachael, we've seen where she lands internationally when she skates her best.

Czisny was 11th at 09 Worlds. The absolute highest she could have been had she skated perfectly was 5th there was no way she was going to beat Mao,, but 8th is more realistic. She could have definitely beaten Gedevanishvilli, Meier, and Suguri had she skated well, but Flatt, Leonova, and Lepisto would have probably still beaten Alissa. She has major issues in the LP, her LP at the 09 Worlds was pretty standard/good for her and she ranked 8th in that segment. The SP is where she bombed, had she been clean her score likely would have been 60-63, so that added to her 106 FS means a total score in the high 160s to low 170s which would have put her in the Lepisto, Leonova range, ie 6th-8th place.

 

[MikiAndoFan#1]

Oh sorry. But the point is she had a miserable SP so we have yet to see where she would land at her best.

No problem!



Yes, it would have been interesting to see where Alissa would have placed with two clean programs. I hope she can accomplish this during this season! Go Alissa!

 

[R.D.]

Well, after NHK we see that both Wagner and Zhang are off to rough starts, whereas Flatt put herself in favorable position for a trip to the GPF. Still can't say too much, as it is early, but we can start to draw the pathway at least.

 

[miki88]

Can't wait to see Mirai! I feel she's still the US best hope.

 

[krenseby]

Well, after NHK we see that both Wagner and Zhang are off to rough starts, whereas Flatt put herself in favorable position for a trip to the GPF. Still can't say too much, as it is early, but we can start to draw the pathway at least.

Well, I still have to figure out whether the judges view Flatt as a serious contender or not.

 

[Layfan]

Well, I still have to figure out whether the judges view Flatt as a serious contender or not.

International judges you mean? Who knows? They didn't seem over the moon about her at the Olympics but she had not bad scores. Still, R.D. was making a point about their skating. And he's completely right of course that Rachael was solid and Ashley and Caroline were very very rocky. Hope Ashley can bounce back but I think Malaguena is a poor choice for her. However, I thought that about Carmen for Mirai last year and came to change my mind. Hope Caroline continues to work hard and that we'll see her improve but she's just not a threat right now.
Still to be seen is Mirai and Alissa and some of the former juniors. Then we can really start seeing who is a contender for US nationals podium.

I'll say this for now, however: Christina Gao's chances are looking pretty decent.

 

[janetfan]

International judges you mean? Who knows? They didn't seem over the moon about her at the Olympics but she had not bad scores. Still, R.D. was making a point about their skating. And he's completely right of course that Rachael was solid and Ashley and Caroline were very very rocky. Hope Ashley can bounce back but I think Malaguena is a poor choice for her. However, I thought that about Carmen for Mirai last year and came to change my mind. Hope Caroline continues to work hard and that we'll see her improve but she's just not a threat right now.
Still to be seen is Mirai and Alissa and some of the former juniors. Then we can really start seeing who is a contender for US nationals podium.

I'll say this for now, however: Christina Gao's chances are looking pretty decent.

Yes, the key being that Christina is still improving and does not seem to be anywhere near peaking regarding her talent level/potential.

I think that is not as true for the current bunch of US senior Ladies, many who just are not good enough to win a lacklustre GP event let alone Worlds. I think Mirai has the talent but she still has to prove it in competitions.

Agnes is still young but if she can land her big jumps under pressure the way Rachael can she may have enough going on in the other elements to have an impact in the next few seasons.

 

[silverlake22]

International judges you mean? Who knows? They didn't seem over the moon about her at the Olympics but she had not bad scores. Still, R.D. was making a point about their skating. And he's completely right of course that Rachael was solid and Ashley and Caroline were very very rocky. Hope Ashley can bounce back but I think Malaguena is a poor choice for her. However, I thought that about Carmen for Mirai last year and came to change my mind. Hope Caroline continues to work hard and that we'll see her improve but she's just not a threat right now.
Still to be seen is Mirai and Alissa and some of the former juniors. Then we can really start seeing who is a contender for US nationals podium.

I'll say this for now, however: Christina Gao's chances are looking pretty decent.

Yeah, Gao's scores on the JGP were higher than what the US ladies put up at NHK. If this trend with Wagner, Zhang, Flatt continues and assuming Czisny and Gilles don't have some major breakthrough, Yasmin Siraj may also have a shot at getting on the podium at nationals. She scored 55+ for her SP and 106+ for her FS at JGP Sheffield and her component scores are very impressive, if she could add a 3-3 to her arsenal by nationals her scores are likely to be even higher. As for Christina, she scores 58+ for her SP when it was clean which is really good, and 109+ for both her JGP FS and in each of them she made a mistake (Graz- doubled the toe in the opening flip combo and only did 2 combos, Dresden- fell on the 2nd flip), meaning if she's clean she can break 110 and if she puts the 2a-3t in her program she could be scoring even higher, plus her lutz isn't consistently getting edge calls anymore so her SP layout for nationals may be 3f-3t, 3lz, 2a and if it is that will make her quite competitive. That's really impressive. As of now it looks like she has a very good shot at making the world team if she continues to attempt the 3f-3t in both her programs and continues to perform consistently.

 

[Nadine]

Well imho ALL bets are off this season for not only the American Ladies chances, but everybody else's as well, because #1 Mao is working on her technique issues, therefore I don't expect her to medal this year. And #2 if Yuna Kim & Joannie Rochette don't show up at Worlds, that will give the American Ladies a great shot at medalling for the first time since Kimmie Meissner's win in 2006!

Seriously, now is the time for the second tier to shine!!!!!! (well all the big guns are either taking a break or working on technique issues). It just MAY be their one & only chance, so I say GO FOR IT, GIRLS!

Rach, this is your big opportunity, don't miss it, time to shine, girl, time to shine. And this goes for the other Americans as well (hint, hint, Mirai Nagasu).

 

[Mathman]

^ That's a great point, especially about Rachael. Everyone wondered if she made a good choice to put off going to Stanford for the sake of one more year of competition, having already been national champion and gone to the Olympics. Maybe she feels the field is wide open this year.

 

[janetfan]

^ That's a great point, especially about Rachael. Everyone wondered if she made a good choice to put off going to Stanford for the sake of one more year of competition, having already been national champion and gone to the Olympics. Maybe she feels the field is wide open this year.

Again you seem almost eager to settle for less........
If by any chance Yuna does not go to Worlds, or Joannie and let's say Mao is not herself. And Laura is not over her injury and Miki and Caro bomb (as they have in the past) and a USA Lady "limps" her way onto the Worlds podium it won't feel the same to me.

Personally, I hope Yuna competes and is in good shape, and it would be lovely if Joannie returns and Laura is fully recovered and Caro is in good form.
And let's hope as skating fans than Mao and Miki are able to compete well too. And Akiko.

Then if a USA Lady were to win a medal at Worlds I would feel pretty good. Under the mathman/Nadine scenario - not so much.

In real sports - if you want to be the best you have to beat the best.

 

[krenseby]

And #2 if Yuna Kim & Joannie Rochette don't show up at Worlds, that will give the American Ladies a great shot at medalling for the first time since Kimmie Meissner's win in 2006!
Rach, this is your big opportunity, don't miss it, time to shine, girl, time to shine. And this goes for the other Americans as well (hint, hint, Mirai Nagasu).

Well, don't forget that the European women are also pretty strong and score surprisingly well. I am thinking of Kostner, Korpi, and Lepistö in particular. I do like Gedevanishvili's skating, but I don't see her as a threat.

 

[janetfan]

Well, don't forget that the European women are also pretty strong and score surprisingly well. I am thinking of Kostner, Korpi, and Lepistö in particular. I do like Gedevanishvili's skating, but I don't see her as a threat.

Sort of my point - except I still think the Asian Ladies are the strongest. But the Euro girls might be ahead of the US Ladies right now. Even the Canadian Ladies seem stronger.
Oh gad - please tell me Mirai, Agnes and even Alissa can show more than what we saw at NHK.
If an injured Caro and a Laura missing half her jumps are deservedly beating the the USA Ladies I think it is time for a more serious appraisal of what is wrong - and no time for silly and mindless cheerleading.

 

[prettykeys]

Sort of my point - except I still think the Asian Ladies are the strongest. But the Euro girls might be ahead of the US Ladies right now. Even the Canadian Ladies seem stronger.
Oh gad - please tell me Mirai, Agnes and even Alissa can show more than what we saw at NHK.
If an injured Caro and a Laura missing half her jumps are deservedly beating the the USA Ladies I think it is time for a more serious appraisal of what is wrong - and no time for silly and mindless cheerleading.

^ Why are you so hard on Rachael and her supporters, janetfan?

LOL and "serious" appraisals of what's wrong...no time for "silly" and "mindless" cheerleading? It's figure skating, not an attempt at international war/peace policy or a race for some critical medical breakthrough...

 

[janetfan]

^ Why are you so hard on Rachael and her supporters, janetfan?

LOL and "serious" appraisals of what's wrong...no time for "silly" and "mindless" cheerleading? It's figure skating, not an attempt at international war/peace policy or a race for some critical medical breakthrough...

Yes, when you put it in perspective of course I agree.
My reaction was not meant ,,,,maybe not as serious as it sounded.
On the otherhand - I doubt that Rachael skipped a year of school betting or hoping Yuna and Joannie won't show up at Worlds, or that Mao will be in a big funk.

I do give Rachael credit for being a competitor and doubt that she hopes for a Worlds podium with herself, Fumie and one of the Euro Ladies.

I do think medals and results count for something - but also think the level of competition is just as important. Hoping for a weak field and poor showing by other Ladies at Worlds is not my idea or dream for US Skating.

 

[Mathman]

Life is short. It is ALWAYS time for silly and mindless cheerleading.