Prediction: Who will make it to the JGP Final?

[Chemistry66]

That's a good point. Gracie Gold does have a 2A-3T and a 3F-3T and has done really well this summer. I still think that Shoji and Cesario will hold on (with Cesario beating the Polinas in a tiebreaker if she gets bronze) for the two spots.

I think the main point that we probably agree on is that the juniors have shown that anything is possible - a relative unknown can win or medal (Vanessa Lam, Anna Shershak, etc), a top contender can get injured/be sick (Hicks) or have a bad day (Miyahara). Chaos could reign and one or both of the Polinas could qualify.

Oh figure skating.

 

[bigsisjiejie]

I think Estonia will be a horse race between Cesario, Shoji, and Shershak. But Gold could be the spoiler by grabbing a medal and scrambling the points that would be the downfall of one or more of the other 3. I can see a lot of scenarios where tiebreakers come into play, so these ladies must go for those scores, max out points, and execute out there on the ice if they want to get to the Final. I suspect 24 is going to be the minimum points that gets to go the Final, maybe even 26.

 

[LeCygne]

I think Gracie Gold will make a big splash. In fact, she's my pick for gold, with Cesario and Shoji rounding out the podium. Funny that Cesario has a bronze while Shoji and Shershak have silvers, but Cesario's score was the highest.

 

[bigsisjiejie]

I think Gracie Gold will make a big splash. In fact, she's my pick for gold, with Cesario and Shoji rounding out the podium. Funny that Cesario has a bronze while Shoji and Shershak have silvers, but Cesario's score was the highest.

This scenario is possible. Not sure if my math is right, but I think Cesario needs to come in 1st or 2nd to make the final, while Shoji only needs to find the podium and make sure Shershak doesn't end up in front of her.

 

[Chemistry66]

This scenario is possible. Not sure if my math is right, but I think Cesario needs to come in 1st or 2nd to make the final, while Shoji only needs to find the podium and make sure Shershak doesn't end up in front of her.

The only way Cesario can get the bronze and still make the finals is if both of the following happen:

A) Neither Shoji nor Shershak gets 22 points or better (both would beat Samantha if all 3 had 22 points since Shoji/Shershak's silver+4th would beat Samantha with 2 bronzes)

and

B) Samantha's scores with a bronze are good enough to overcome Polina Agafonova. (Polina K automatically would be over a Samantha 2-bronze ranking due to her silver)

Then the finals would be Julia, Polina S, Vanessa Lam, Zijun Li, Polina K, and Samantha. (Samantha would be more safe if she got a silver or a gold, yes, but it's not impossible with a bronze)

 

[dorispulaski]

Dance:
Victoria SINITSINA / Ruslan ZHIGANSHIN - 30 (Tiebreaker)
Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN -30
Maria NOSULIA / Evgen KHOLONIUK - 26 (Tiebreaker winner)
Anastasia GALYETA / Alexei SHUMSKI -26
Alexandra ALDRIDGE / Daniel EATON -24 (Tiebreaker winner)
Lauri BONACORSI / Travis MAGER -24 (Tiebreaker)


Alternates: Valeria ZENKOVA / Valerie SINITSIN - 24 ; Nicole ORFORD / Thomas WILLIAMS - 20 ;

Left to skate in Estonia: Evgenia KOSIGINA / Nikolai MOROSHKIN (13); Anna YANOVSKAIA / Sergei MOZGOV (11); Mackenzie BENT / Garrett MACKEEN (11)

One of the couples will get in by winning, pushing Bonacorsi and Mager out. If Kosigina/Moroshkin does not win and gets silver, they will also be in. If K/M win bronze, they will have to score 135.79 to beat Aldridge/Eaton.

If Bent and Mackeen or Yanovskaia and Mozgov gets silver (and K/M wins gold), they will have to get scores of 134.40 and 133.31, respectively to beat Aldridge and Eaton in the tiebreaker.

So basically if its: K/M, Y/M, B/M (or 2nd or 3rd in reverse) -- Aldridge and Eaton will hold on because neither of the 2nd or 3rd place teams are unlikely to win the tiebreaker.
They will also hold on if Y/M or B/M wins and K/M only gets bronze because they will likely lose the tiebreaker.
They will not hold on if Y/M or B/M wins and K/M holds on to silver. As a result the winner of the two former couples and K/M would get into the final.

Actually, there is one other option. If Papadakis & Cizeron should win, they would have 24 points, and the first place finish is the tie breaker.

 

[Mrs. P]

Actually, there is one other option. If Papadakis & Cizeron should win, they would have 24 points, and the first place finish is the tie breaker.

Oh, yeah. Good point. I guess I'm not putting to much on it in hopes that the Americans make it.

 

[mskater93]

If Gold skates like she did (or close to it) at GCFI at the beginning of September, she's going to be hard to beat. Not one negative GOE. 3F+3T, 3Lz, 2A in short, 3Lz+3T, 2A+3T, 3F, 3Lz, 3S, 3Lo, 2A+2T+2Lo in the long along with L3 steps, L4 spins....

 

[silverlake22]

If Gold skates like she did (or close to it) at GCFI at the beginning of September, she's going to be hard to beat. Not one negative GOE. 3F+3T, 3Lz, 2A in short, 3Lz+3T, 2A+3T, 3F, 3Lz, 3S, 3Lo, 2A+2T+2Lo in the long along with L3 steps, L4 spins....

I think she'll be on the podium, but it's a toss up over what place. I find Gracie to be mainly a technician at this point, while Cesario and Shoji are both very elegant and mature, so I would not be surprised if they beat her in PCS (esp where Gracie is an international unknown). Further, Cesario has huge jumps that garner +GOE and Risa has 3-3 in SP and 3-3-2 and 2a-3t planned in FS, so I think if all girls skate well it will be a close intense race. I wouldn't say any of these 3 has the win in the bag by any means.

If I had to guess Shershak will likely be 4th here, she's lovely but I think her limited tech content will hold her back more here than it did in Milan. And what that means is it really comes down to whether Cesario can beat out Shoji/Gold (or someone else - you never know) to come in 1st or 2nd. Because if she's 3rd, and Shershak is 4th, and Shoji is 1st or 2nd, then Samantha would be out of the final, and the last spot would come down to a tiebreaker between Shershak and Korobeynikova.

Shoji probably has the cushiest odds because she could still qualify with a 4th place finish and unlike Shershak she has so many triples planned that a mistake/UR or two shouldn't kill her chances. And if she's 3rd her chances are pretty good, and if 2nd she's definitely in. I think if she skates well she can definitely win this, but I am wary about what happened to Miyahara (though Risa's jumps aren't nearly as small and I find her overall quality superior to Miyahara as well, and in the past she's been consistent). In any event, it will be very exciting to see how it all plays out!

 

[Violet Bliss]

I find it interesting that the JFP finishes before the GP starts and the top Juniors have to wait two months to compete at the JGPF at the same time as the GPF. Meanwhile, the coaches are occupied with their Senior skaters. There are no competitions in these two months that I'm aware of, so the Juniors really have to prepare differently. Hard to tell if it's better or worse. I guess it depends on how they program themselves to use this time.

 

[DianaSelene]

I find it interesting that the JFP finishes before the GP starts and the top Juniors have to wait two months to compete at the JGPF at the same time as the GPF. Meanwhile, the coaches are occupied with their Senior skaters. There are no competitions in these two months that I'm aware of, so the Juniors really have to prepare differently. Hard to tell if it's better or worse. I guess it depends on how they program themselves to use this time.

Usually it's not a big deal. Wasn't it similar last year? The juniors still came out to the final and did really well.

 

[mskater93]

I think she'll be on the podium, but it's a toss up over what place. I find Gracie to be mainly a technician at this point, while Cesario and Shoji are both very elegant and mature, so I would not be surprised if they beat her in PCS (esp where Gracie is an international unknown). Further, Cesario has huge jumps that garner +GOE and Risa has 3-3 in SP and 3-3-2 and 2a-3t planned in FS, so I think if all girls skate well it will be a close intense race. I wouldn't say any of these 3 has the win in the bag by any means.

Have you seen her in person? She's as fast if not faster than Shoji and Cesario which will give her a big jump start in PCS (even for her first international event). PCS has very little to do with being "elegant and mature looking" on the ice, it's mostly about speed and transitions, especially when you listen to all the people on these boards who complain about some skaters' PCS marks. If they start at SS with their marking, it's going to be a really good score. You also seem to be implying that her jumps are small when compared to Cesario, which I completely disagree with. She had a Lutz in her SP called a double by accident because it was so big and effortless, the tech panel mistakenly called it a double (and it was a small local competition with no video replay). If Gracie skates to her potential she has a very, very, very good chance to win here, even with it being her first time out internationally.

 

[Neda]

If I had to guess Shershak will likely be 4th here, she's lovely but I think her limited tech content will hold her back more here than it did in Milan. And what that means is it really comes down to whether Cesario can beat out Shoji/Gold (or someone else - you never know) to come in 1st or 2nd. Because if she's 3rd, and Shershak is 4th, and Shoji is 1st or 2nd, then Samantha would be out of the final, and the last spot would come down to a tiebreaker between Shershak and Korobeynikova.

Then it's not very clever for USA fed to send such skater as Gracie Gold to Estonia. Samantha may medal, beat Anna and still not make JGPF because team mate took her points off.

 

[mskater93]

USFS takes a more long term view of it than who's going to make the JGP final. If, for example, Gracie wins Junior Ladies at Nationals this year with a big score, they'd probably want to send her to JWs and if she has been in front of international judges already, they will have an idea what to expect and score her accordingly. There was complaining last year that Hicks didn't get a look before JWs from International judges which (may have) affected her score.

 

[silverlake22]

Have you seen her in person? She's as fast if not faster than Shoji and Cesario which will give her a big jump start in PCS (even for her first international event). PCS has very little to do with being "elegant and mature looking" on the ice, it's mostly about speed and transitions, especially when you listen to all the people on these boards who complain about some skaters' PCS marks. If they start at SS with their marking, it's going to be a really good score. You also seem to be implying that her jumps are small when compared to Cesario, which I completely disagree with. She had a Lutz in her SP called a double by accident because it was so big and effortless, the tech panel mistakenly called it a double (and it was a small local competition with no video replay). If Gracie skates to her potential she has a very, very, very good chance to win here, even with it being her first time out internationally.

No, I haven't seen her live. I believe what you are saying. I never said Shoji has big jumps, because her jumps are fairly small with very quick rotation as far as I can tell. I've seen the videos of Gracie, and yes her jumps are huge, but so are Samantha's. I'm not saying Gracie isn't good, she's great, but she has some serious competition in Shoji and Cesario who are very strong themselves, in both technical and PCS aspects. Shoji scored 165+ at Japanese Nationals last season, has been issued PCS as high as 50 for a junior international FS (last year at the JGPF), and scored 106+ for her FS at the Czech Republic JGP last season, which had a couple of mistakes. Samantha has not competed a lot in the past season, but put up a score comparable to what Gracie has been scoring all summer at Liberty, and then also received PCS of nearly 50 for her FS at her last JGP event. Gracie has a very good shot of winning here, but she has 2 very formidable competitors to deal with who have equally good chances for gold, IMO. Am I the only one who thinks this way? Do most of you guys actually think Gracie is head and shoulders above the likes of Shoji and Cesario?

 

[Mrs. P]

No, I haven't seen her live. I believe what you are saying. I never said Shoji has big jumps, because her jumps are fairly small with very quick rotation as far as I can tell. I've seen the videos of Gracie, and yes her jumps are huge, but so are Samantha's. I'm not saying Gracie isn't good, she's great, but she has some serious competition in Shoji and Cesario who are very strong themselves, in both technical and PCS aspects. Shoji scored 165+ at Japanese Nationals last season, has been issued PCS as high as 50 for a junior international FS (last year at the JGPF), and scored 106+ for her FS at the Czech Republic JGP last season, which had a couple of mistakes. Samantha has not competed a lot in the past season, but put up a score comparable to what Gracie has been scoring all summer at Liberty, and then also received PCS of nearly 50 for her FS at her last JGP event. Gracie has a very good shot of winning here, but she has 2 very formidable competitors to deal with who have equally good chances for gold, IMO. Am I the only one who thinks this way? Do most of you guys actually think Gracie is head and shoulders above the likes of Shoji and Cesario?

I don't know about head and shoulders, but I think it's hard to ignore that Gracie has the difficult tech AND the big jumps. Shoji has hard tech content and elegance but as you say, small jumps. Samantha has big jumps, but her tech content is not as difficult.

I think it will be interesting competition!

 

[mskater93]

No, I haven't seen her live. I believe what you are saying. I never said Shoji has big jumps, because her jumps are fairly small with very quick rotation as far as I can tell. I've seen the videos of Gracie, and yes her jumps are huge, but so are Samantha's. I'm not saying Gracie isn't good, she's great, but she has some serious competition in Shoji and Cesario who are very strong themselves, in both technical and PCS aspects. Shoji scored 165+ at Japanese Nationals last season, has been issued PCS as high as 50 for a junior international FS (last year at the JGPF), and scored 106+ for her FS at the Czech Republic JGP last season, which had a couple of mistakes. Samantha has not competed a lot in the past season, but put up a score comparable to what Gracie has been scoring all summer at Liberty, and then also received PCS of nearly 50 for her FS at her last JGP event. Gracie has a very good shot of winning here, but she has 2 very formidable competitors to deal with who have equally good chances for gold, IMO. Am I the only one who thinks this way? Do most of you guys actually think Gracie is head and shoulders above the likes of Shoji and Cesario?

My comments were that "elegance and maturity" do not really factor into PCS and if they start with SS and TR (and Gracie skates like she has been this spring/summer), her PCS will be right in line with everyone else at the top - so PCS won't make up the differential for a big 3F+3T with positive GOE that I suspect neither Shoji nor Cesario will try.

I didn't say you implied Shoji had big jumps, I suggested you implied that Gracie's jumps were small in comparison to Cesario which I disagree with wholeheartedly. I get that you aren't a big fan of hers, as you seem to have other up and comers you support and hype a great deal more (which is your right - we all have skaters that we like more than others), but to be dismissive her technical skills and assume Cesario and Shoji will blow her out of the water on PCS is probably an incorrect assumption if Gracie skates well. Cesario's "comparable score" came in Senior Ladies at Liberty which has an additional element of the choreographic spiral sequence which nets a minimum of 2 points and probably in Cesario's case more like 3-4 as her spiral sequence is quite nice. You also seem to forget that there seems to be a PCS bias to skaters with the big tricks (think quad for men, hard 3+3 and/or 3A for ladies). Skaters who are sloppier but fast and who have tech difficulty typically get equivalent PCS to a more elegant and finished skater who doesn't have the same technical difficulty. That seems to be a big complaint I read on forums about Hicks - she's rough around the edges and sloppy looking, but is fast and can land the hard combos so gets big scores in PCS, even when not "deserved" in that poster's opinion.

Yes, Gracie blew her chances at Mids last year with a really subpar skate (and trust me, you could see she was super disappointed when she got home, but she got over it and has worked her tail off since - she seems to have picked up that "I'll show you for leaving me at home in January" attitude that made Zawadski a Junior Ladies National Champion which has really sucked for those of us on some of the same FS sessions). Even her "nervous skates/skates with mistakes" lately have been in the 106+ range for LP and in the mid-high 50s for SP. At her last outing, she put up 160+ at a club competition which was filled with Sectional and higher level tech panel members and judges (and actually several well respected National judges/tech panel members). I want to see her put those quality skates out again at this event so that people beyond those of us in her "usual area" take notice. The murmurings around the rink for the entire competition after Junior Ladies finished (on Saturday night with a full day of competition on Sunday to follow) were loud and clear about her talent and how hard it will be to get out of Mids for Juniors (Miller, Gold, Verhulst, Long, Bell,...)

So, in short, if she skates to her potential, she has just as much chance of winning as the other two you keep proposing for Gold/Silver (and possibly even more since she's got the current hardest SP jump combination).

 

[silverlake22]

So, in short, if she skates to her potential, she has just as much chance of winning as the other two you keep proposing for Gold/Silver (and possibly even more since she's got the current hardest SP jump combination).

I think you're right. And it's maybe come off as otherwise, but I'm convinced that IF THEY ALL SKATE WELL, it should be a 3 horse race for the gold. I consider all 3 girls to be quite even, I guess I'm just a little hesitant of Gracie because it's her 1st international competition which can affect so many things. And I really don't have anything against Gracie at all, I love her big jumps, but I think why it maybe comes off that way is because I REALLY like Samantha and Risa's skating (find them both more interesting and elegant than Gracie though Gracie as you said beats them out on tech) and would hate to have them miss out on making the final solely due to Gracie being there (which it looks like won't really be an issue anymore after what happened this weekend, so it's kind of a moot point now - unless Gracie's winning bumps Samantha down to 3rd or Risa off the podium), which I wouldn't even mind if Gracie herself had 2 assignments and could earn herself a spot in the final fair and square.

Another thing to keep in mind though is that Yasmin did score 180+ at regionals last week after scoring mid 130s at her JGP a few weeks prior. Granted, she skated much better at regionals than she did at her JGP, and it was a senior versus junior event, but the discrepancy between those 2 scores, even considering what I just said, is huge and makes a statement. Now, unlike Yasmin, Gracie is getting most of her points from her technical elements versus PCS so I doubt her JGP scores will be that different from what she's getting domestically if she skates well, but there's still a chance they could be.

Also at her last event, Risa went for 3f-3t in her SP, but she didn't get full credit for either jump so I assume (hope) she'll be going back to 3s-3t which seems a much more secure combination for her and usually does not get downgraded. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4KcwsSKbW4 this video from COI would suggest she's already changed the combo like I mentioned, though I guess it could have just been a simpler version for the show, and she might still try 3f-3t in Talinn (though I wouldn't recommend it if I were her coach). I don't know if Cesario trains 3-3s but she puts no 3t in her current FS, so I guess it's possible she could also try 3f-3t here.

 

[silverlake22]

I don't know about head and shoulders, but I think it's hard to ignore that Gracie has the difficult tech AND the big jumps. Shoji has hard tech content and elegance but as you say, small jumps. Samantha has big jumps, but her tech content is not as difficult.

I think it will be interesting competition!

All good points, but I did just think of something. Vanessa Lam did win in Austria 2 weeks ago with tiny jumps and lesser content than the other two medalists who she beat, Zijun Li who has big jumps, elegance, and a 7 triple FS, and Polina Agafonova who has big jumps and has a 3-3 in both programs. Vanessa is a great spinner, but Zijun and Polina are just as good if not better in that department, and in terms of elegance, Vanessa is quite elegant, moreso than Agafonova who has a more energetic style, but Zijun is probably more elegant than Vanessa. The PCS among these 3 girls were comparable, and Vanessa was able to pull out the win by skating a clean FS, something Li and Aagafonova were not able to do there. So it could feasibly a similar situation here and really come down to who skates best on that day.

 

[mskater93]

As always, it will come down to how clean they skate. Period.