Ashley Wagner has come a long way

[Skatetomusic]

Watching Ashley's long program from NHK just a moment ago I think she is doing really well this season despite her finishes. I really have respect for her. She is always in the mix for medals at some of the more difficult GP competitions which is commendable.

She really fought at this recent competion. Jumps that could have been two-footed were not except for one. So that is a technical improvement. Her recent programs for the most part have been well rounded as well. I hope she makes it to Worlds this year.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

She has been one of my favorites for a number of years, but it has been frustrating at times watching her crumble in the SP at Nationals, especially because she skates well enough in the LP to qualify for the world team each time. I have generally liked her programs and her music and choreography always seems to "fit" her. Ashley is someone that I feel should be competing for top 5 finishes at Worlds, and her notable improvements this year hopefully will give her that extra added confidence to finally deliver 2 great programs at Nationals.

 

[pangtongfan]

She has looked good this season but with only 2 spots to Worlds for the U.S she will need to hope Nagasu bombs Nationals to make it (assuming Czisny makes it almost for sure).

 

[Skatetomusic]

She has looked good this season but with only 2 spots to Worlds for the U.S she will need to hope Nagasu bombs Nationals to make it (assuming Czisny makes it almost for sure).

Wagner placed ahead of Nagasu at Skate Canada remember. Nagasu faltered there. Anything is possible.

 

[skateluvr]

I too am her fan, love her programs, look this year. She is somehow not getting her due. I was very disappointed when she did not get the bronze she deserved. She has it all. If Mirai does not bring it and Agnes does not either, I think it will be Alissa and Ashley. Somehow, Mirai will not be given any extra points for cute wunderkind anymore. I don't know what to expect from Rachel, but I think it would be great if Ash does what she does in practice and nails that spot. I think the USFSA will help Alissa a bit at Nationals as it's her last year and she is so well respected as a person. We'll see I guess.

 

[pangtongfan]

Rachel is pretty much out of it. Nothing short of a miracle could put her on the team this year. I see the 2 spots as between Czisny, Nagasu, Agnes, and Ashley. Unless Czisny bombs Nationals badly she will be making it IMO. So that leaves 1 other spot probably. Nagasu will be given the spot if she skates well I am sure. She is still considered the U.S lady with the most long range potential (although that could change hands to Agnes or even Gao pretty soon). However if Nagasu doesnt skate well Ashley has a great shot at it if she can deliver 2 strong programs, but Agnes and Ashley both skating perfectly would be quite close.

 

[#1Kerryfan]

I hope Nationals is good to her this year

 

[iluvtodd]

So do I!

 

[Trewyn]

I'm happy many are rooting for Ashley!!! I agree with the OP that she's two-footing a lot less than past seasons. I really, really hope she'll finally have a good Nationals again and makes the World Team. She deserves to be on it!! Though competition will be fierce from Czisny and Nagasu, possibly Zawadzki and Flatt but they haven't convinced me so far this season.
About her programs, I still feel she can do even better artistically; find better music, maybe music that has more variation, has energy in the right places. But she love her LP this year and it shows and that's great.

 

[seniorita]

I like her programs this year a lot, especially her Lp, and her costumes also are very nice.

 

[R.D.]

Wagner has made that critical step forward that she's needed to make for the past 2 seasons now. The coaching change I bet helped in that regard. She was in real danger of getting left behind by the new generation at the end of last season, but I figured she wasn't out of it yet (different than say, Caroline Zhang). She seems to have gained a little consistency in the short too, badly needed, but Nationals will be the real test. She has been known for strong starts in the season (she made GPF in 2009) before blowing it in the short at Nats (happened THREE YEARS in a row!). Fortunately for her, it appears that she has some time to recoup and rebuild in the next couple of months. She needs to add difficulty particularly to her freeskate.

People understandably counting out Flatt after her disaster of a competition at SC, but I still think it's a mistake to do so. Even if she ends up crashing and burning in Russia as well. As for Nagasu, maybe her issues are psychological? Wonder if Carroll is truly the right coach for her...She IS capable of putting it all together- she's done it before- she just needs to trust herself and trust her training.

Unfortunately, I found Zawadzki rather underwhelming in China, nevermind the mistakes. It's a shame, but the program just doesn't work for her. She has potential- she just needs to unlock it, but there's time.

 

[Nadine]

Replying to the thread title, yes, I concur she has come a long way, but she has a long road ahead of her as well. Starting with her own US Nationals, her nemesis. If she can't win Nationals, she can't play at Worlds, let alone the Olympics.

 

[skateluvr]

But Nadine, think of the skaters who never won Nationals but did well at worlds. And Sarah never won a national or word title, but still has that OGM and she was really great at 16. Aren't there others who hopped over national to do well in bigger events?

 

[Nadine]

Lol skateluvr, thanks for pointing that out. But Sarah Hughes was truly special; she & Alexei Yagudin are the only Olympic Champions in history to have never won their own country's nationals. Verdad!

There are such exceptions, like Oksana Baiul, who won Worlds on her first try, at 15! The only other ladies singles skater to share that distinction is our own Kimmie Meissner, but she was 16.

I classify these extraordinary beings as "comets", which was best stated by a poster named yogurtslinger in 1999. I loved her quote so much that I wrote it down, and it goes like this:

"The sun has to be acknowledged by virtue of its constancy ~ its steady position high in the sky.
But the blazing comet that lasts only a short time is something quite valuable and amazing as well.

In the future when both the sun and the comet become only memories,
I think people will recall them with equal vibrancy and accord them both important position in history."

ps: I think so too.

 

[Binthere]

Geez, I just really hope that the top ladies show up HEALTHY and able to give it their best. Have been so disappointed for Ashley when she has had weird/bad luck and health problems (the flu last year). I think it would make for a very impressive display if the ladies can show up fighting fit, Ashley especially. Her performances in the Grand Prix will hopefully give her a boost of confidence.

She and Rachael are both now "California girls!" (Rachael was originally from there). Hope the home state crowds come out to cheer.

 

[Trewyn]

Wagner has made that critical step forward that she's needed to make for the past 2 seasons now. The coaching change I bet helped in that regard. She was in real danger of getting left behind by the new generation at the end of last season, but I figured she wasn't out of it yet (different than say, Caroline Zhang). She seems to have gained a little consistency in the short too, badly needed, but Nationals will be the real test. She has been known for strong starts in the season (she made GPF in 2009) before blowing it in the short at Nats (happened THREE YEARS in a row!). Fortunately for her, it appears that she has some time to recoup and rebuild in the next couple of months. She needs to add difficulty particularly to her freeskate.

I know. THREE YEARS. That's pretty awful!!!! The worst thing is what that does with her mentally.
She has been known to have good GP performances, hence I'm only very cautiously optimistic. I really want it for her, though. She's been pretty brave sticking out and picking up the pieces after difficult moments in her career.

As to her health issues; she doesn't talk about them much, but the heart issues she had around the time of 2009 JR Worlds were really serious; and it flared up again last season, it seemed. She's said then that she found a treatment, so hopefully her heart's fine now.

Nats will mostly be a mental game. And upping the difficulty (yes, the freeskate; she really needs to add content - in the post NHK interview she said she's going to start landing triple-triples straight away. Let's hope she's right.)

Nicks seems to be a good coach for her, so fingers crossed.

People understandably counting out Flatt after her disaster of a competition at SC, but I still think it's a mistake to do so. Even if she ends up crashing and burning in Russia as well.

You're right! I'm not counting Flatt out. She's always had pretty good Nats performances and hasn't missed a Worlds team for the past three seasons... But the fact that she's doing Stanford now may not be underestimated either; she's said that she's "always tired", sounds like that is a pretty bad situation if you want to stay healthy.

 

[mskater93]

What I truly appreciate about what John Nicks and Philip Mills have done with Ashley is they've reduced the RUSHING. Her movements seem much more finished and her jump technique isn't as scary.

The big difference about her jumps from before is that she's not picking for the flip, Lutz, or toe loop or bending the skating knee to spring on the loop almost immediately upon getting backwards anymore. This makes a HUGE difference in the ability to settle your rotational axis over the correct (landing) side while in the air. When you rush through the takeoff (like she was), the rotation tends to happen more centered in the body which either leads to the skater having to hike the free hip up and out (which looks ugly and leads to falling or flip outs because it changes where your center is) or it leads to two footed jumps (Ashley's previously noted problem). If you look at a previous program where she two footed and compare the jump timing, you'll see she's waiting just a fractional amount of time longer now.

 

[silverpond]

IMHO, consistency is the key for Ashley Wagner. She has a lot of talent and obviously works very hard, yet she must learn to cut down on the mistakes in her competitive programs if she wants to make the US World team and ever work her way up the World standings. Good luck to her.

 

[pangtongfan]

Wagner's problem is that even when she skates cleanly she does not score high enough for anyone decent who also skates well to beat her. At the 2008 Nationals she skated the 2 programs of her life with a triple lutz-triple loop in both, and still lost to Rachel Flatt of all people. That is why she has always been in the shadow of Flatt, Nagasu, Czisny, Meissner, and Zhang, even in her own country. I am happy to see her skating well this year but the only way she will make the World team is if one of Czisny or Nagasu bombs quite badly at Nationals, and she capatilizes by hitting 2 perfect programs.

 

[R.D.]

Some people seem to think Czisny is a lock for the world team- I don't agree with the "lock" part but I do think she inherently becomes the favorite, particularly as defending champ. Also, remember the curse of defending champ at Nationals? No lady has won back-to-back Natls in recent years.

Also, many seem to be frustrated with Nagasu's progress, or lack thereof as they perceive it. Nagasu is getting a reputation as a purely hot/cold skater- when she is on, she is ON but when she isn't, she's easily beatable by all the other top Americans. I think she peaked too late last season (at 4CCs)...remains to be seen whether she can pace herself just right to perform much better at Nationals. Ideally Czisny and a WELL-PREPARED Nagasu would be our best shot this season at getting back those 3 spots (of course, no guarantee though).

And, as I mentioned above, many are also counting out Flatt, which I think is a mistake...that said, however, I think her best days are clearly behind her. If she does get on the world team, I predict it would be just barely squeezing through in a close call, maybe with the help of Nagasu & Wagner faltering.

And, of course, Wagner- yes, she's flown somewhat under the radar in relation to Nagasu, Flatt, and maybe even Czisny last season...then again though, that's understandable since Wagner has sabotaged herself time and time again with that short program. Some people have criticized Nagasu for not wanting it enough, but I think Wagner may have the opposite problem- wanting it too much. This will be a really big Natls for Wagner since Flatt may very well be on her way out, and Nagasu depends on the weather that day. It's really Wagner's best shot at a World team since 2008. It's up to her to stay in contention though, and it begins with the SHORT PROGRAM.