Caroline Zhang - Can She Regain Her Spot Among The Top US Ladies?

[R.D.]

First off, let me say that it's quite remarkable what she's been able to do in one season, jump from 12th at nationals last year to 4th this year. Now, I know some of you may see that 4th place finish and argue that perhaps, she already HAS regained her spot- but keep in mind she skated pretty well while the others have some work to do, to put it mildly. Also, the competition is going to get tougher with Wagner re-emerging, Gao & Zawadzki, Gracie Gold possibly moving up next year, and other wildcards & surprises in store.

The real question I'm posing is whether Zhang can reach that point where she can compete with Czisny, Wagner, and perhaps a revitalized Nagasu for world and Olympic spot(s) in the future. While she's shown great improvement, she's not quite (back) at that top rung yet. Everyone's talking about Gracie Gold, Agnes Zawadzki (and now Ashley Wagner) but where does Zhang fit in all this, if she can keep up the momentum?

 

[Olympia]

First off, let me say that it's quite remarkable what she's been able to do in one season, jump from 12th at nationals last year to 4th this year. Now, I know some of you may see that 4th place finish and argue that perhaps, she already HAS regained her spot- but keep in mind she skated pretty well while the others have some work to do, to put it mildly. Also, the competition is going to get tougher with Wagner re-emerging, Gao & Zawadzki, Gracie Gold possibly moving up next year, and other wildcards & surprises in store.

The real question I'm posing is whether Zhang can reach that point that she can compete with Czisny, Wagner, and perhaps a revitalized Nagasu for world and Olympic spot(s) in the future. While she's shown great improvement, she's not quite (back) at that top rung yet. Everyone's talking about Gracie Gold, Agnes Zawadzki (and now Ashley Wagner) but where does Zhang fit in all this, if she can keep up the momentum?

I don't think we can answer that, and that's great! Because she will answer it, one way or the other. I have high hopes.

Here's one reason: I remember there were a few years in there where she was the only American skater to do well internationally. I think that for all her technical lapses during those years, what she did have was a cool head for combat. This is a quality that doesn't have to change just because someone has a growth spurt. I'm banking on its still being inside her.

 

[feraina]

It's amazing how far Caroline has come since "the bottom fell out", in her words -- but I think the most major thing holding her back is her fitness level, especially her core strength. I feel like this lack of core strength is what's making her stroking slow and labored, her jumps small and muscled, and her spins slower (now she no longer has a stick figure like she used to). It's a *lot* better than the last three years, but it's her biggest natural weakness, and therefore she really needs to work on that aspect of her fitness. I'm sure doing pilates and other core exercises is a lot less fun than working on jumps or spins or programs, but she has to put in that time and effort to get to the "top rung". She has two routes, get fitter and powerful and start projecting the look of a top-tier "athlete" like Ashley and Agnes, or get willowy like Mao and Alissa and sell the delicate "dancer" look. I think her more natural path is to go with the dancer look, but while she has slimmed down a lot, she would need to slim down a lot more to get there -- I'm not sure that it would be healthy for her to try to attain that look. On the other hand, not everyone has the genes to be super athletic and powerful either, no matter how hard they work out. I guess on the whole, now that she seems to be past the worst of the puberty monster and has shown how disciplined/effective she can be in controlling her figure, I think the easier route for her may be to try to recover the delicate "dancer" look she had at a younger age, but with better jump techniques.

 

[Okami]

She has two routes, get fitter and powerful and start projecting the look of a top-tier "athlete" like Ashley and Agnes, or get willowy like Mao and Alissa and sell the delicate "dancer" look.

In my opinion, it doesn't have to be so binary. I can think of plenty of skaters (like Michelle, Shizuka, Akiko) whose style can hardly be considered purely "athletic", despite the fact that their bodies aren't exactly willowy (for that matter, I don't think Ashley's style is purely athletic, either - especialy since she's started working with her ballet coach and learned to slow down and take her time).

 

[feraina]

In my opinion, it doesn't have to be so binary. I can think of plenty of skaters (like Michelle, Shizuka, Akiko) whose style can hardly be considered purely "athletic", despite the fact that their bodies aren't exactly willowy (for that matter, I don't think Ashley's style is purely athletic, either - especialy since she's started working with her ballet coach and learned to slow down and take her time).

Michelle (in her best years), Shizuka, Akiko, and Ashley, all look(ed) much fitter than Caroline does now. I'm not saying they don't have grace or don't have great performances, but they don't strike you to have classical dancer figures. Yu-na Kim is another -- her only program that made her look like a delicate "dancer" was Lark Ascending, which I loved, but apparently she didn't find it easy or natural to perform that way.

And I'm not saying that Alissa and Mao (this year) are not fit. Caroline needs to do a lot of core strengthening just to get to their levels of fitness. But to get to the level of the more athletic skaters, she would have to spend a lot more time working on her stamina, strength, stability.

 

[krenseby]

I feel like this lack of core strength is what's making her stroking slow and labored, her jumps small and muscled, and her spins slower (now she no longer has a stick figure like she used to). It's a *lot* better than the last three years, but it's her biggest natural weakness, and therefore she really needs to work on that aspect of her fitness.

It's interesting that you think her inability to get high spin levels as of late is related to a lack of core strength. I wonder if her coaches are aware of this issue and whether they are working to address it.

I agree with RD that a more confident Mirai, a better trained Rachael, not to mention Gracie Gold would push Caroline down to 6 - 8th place at Nationals, so she still has a lot of work to do to be competitive with all those ladies.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I think it will be hard for her to keep up, particularly with Gracie, Agnes and the other youngsters. I'm afraid she might be disheartened that, after all the hard work she has put it, she was relatively clean at Nationals and still placed 4th. It might be too much of a task to improve in all the areas she needs to (core strength, spins, etc) while also maintaining her jumps.

 

[Olympia]

Interesting point, Feraina, and one that it would probably benefit Caroline to consider.

I seem to recall that even the ultimate willowy dancer, Sasha Cohen, started doing Pilates to strengthen her core. In fact, I hear that a lot of actual dancers (ballet and modern) swear by that method, which not only gives strength but also protects against injuries, especially of the torso.

 

[PolymerBob]

I have believed for some time now that Caroline's weight was her biggest issue. People talk about her slow speed, ugly mule-kick, poor edges and horrendous technique. But her speed, kick, edges and technique put her on 14 podiums. It was only when she gained weight that her problems started.

I was very happy to see how much she slimmed down since October (!)

 

[krenseby]

I have believed for some time now that Caroline's weight was her biggest issue. People talk about her slow speed, ugly mule-kick, poor edges and horrendous technique. But her speed, kick, edges and technique put her on 14 podiums. It was only when she gained weight that her problems started.

I was very happy to see how much she slimmed down since October (!)

What about the spins? Do you think her ability to perform them is related to her weight?

 

[skateluvr]

If Caroline can improve her SS the way she did her jumps, then why not? She can lose maybe more weight, to make the rotations easier. It is amazing she went after the triple loop combo and so what if second got an edge call or ur-i forget, but she is the comeback kid, and she's loving skating again. She might be a us contender again, but internationally, she is way behind. I don't think any US lady can compete with the world's best. I may find myself surprised with Agnes next year, or Gracie Gold but I think our contenders will be lucky to be in 6th thru 10th. The Japanese and Russian ladies are ahead, with Carolina the one European they seem to adore and want to reward.

Caro would be the first European Gold medalist (non Russian as that isn't Europe) since Katarina, right? It has been a long time and I understand how much they want to see a tall, elegant woman who has struggled get the WC gold. I think it's almost as sure as Chan.

 

[krenseby]

It has been a long time and I understand how much they want to see a tall, elegant woman who has struggled get the WC gold. I think it's almost as sure as Chan.

Haha, I almost would have thought you are talking about Alissa Czisny there, except of course she's a bit shorter than Carolina.

 

[PolymerBob]

What about the spins? Do you think her ability to perform them is related to her weight?

Yes I do. In physics and engineering, it's called moment of inertia. It takes more energy to spin a heavy object than a light one.

 

[Olympia]

Yes I do. In physics and engineering, it's called moment of inertia. It takes more energy to spin a heavy object than a light one.

I'd like to point out, though, that the two best ladies' spinners in history are rather large ladies in terms of sheer size, not girth. Lucinda Ruh is I believe 5 foot 9, and Alissa Czisny is 5 foot 5 or thereabouts. They're thin, but they're not wisps. So if Caroline gets to a good fighting weight and learns to deal with the new strong adult size that she is, she should speed up just fine while in complete obedience to the laws of gravity and inertia! (As you see, I generally take the hopeful view in these matters.)

 

[sky_fly20]

I thought that Caroline's future was grim
but then watching her skate at Nationals, she might not be at the very bottom yet
I believe she has the chance to become 4th or 3rd consistent best us lady lady in teh competition, nationals and even better in internationals

 

[feraina]

I'd like to point out, though, that the two best ladies' spinners in history are rather large ladies in terms of sheer size, not girth. Lucinda Ruh is I believe 5 foot 9, and Alissa Czisny is 5 foot 5 or thereabouts. They're thin, but they're not wisps. So if Caroline gets to a good fighting weight and learns to deal with the new strong adult size that she is, she should speed up just fine while in complete obedience to the laws of gravity and inertia! (As you see, I generally take the hopeful view in these matters.)

Girth is a lot worse than height for spinning, because moment of inertia isn't just determined by weight but by how far away each unit of weight is from the center of rotation. Height doesn't matter so much for moment of inertia (and speed of rotation) if the skater is doing an upright spin or Bielmann spin, or even a compact sit spin.

But it's not only the moment of inertia that figures into speed, it's also how much of a perfect "rigid body" the object is. You can spin around a baseball bat really easily, but try to spin around something floppy of the same shape, and see how much it slows down. Here is where core strength can help a skater (both in spins and jumps) -- you want to have really strong core muscles and engage them so that your body approximates as much of a rigid body as you can while you are rotating.

Core strength is especially important for doing a camel spin, as you have to really engage your core muscles and glutes to fight gravity and stay strong. I've never seen Caroline do a fast camel spin. She got only a level 2 in the SP on her flying camel, because she couldn't rotate fast enough to get sufficient rotations on two of the positions. She also only got a level 3 in her combo spin because it was a little slow. Having two of your three spins being graded low levels is a big deal in the SP. If she worked out super hard on her core and does the exact same program at 4CC as she did at National's, she'd be able to get higher level spins and earn 3-4 more points in TES. Good deal, huh?

 

[Nadine]

I like all this talk about "inertia", keep it coming. Seriously, it brings to mind pairs skating, in particular Donlan & Speroff, and the mechanics of lifts/throws/twists. Gretchen Donlan being the tiniest ladies pair skater in seniors imho, and by that I just don't mean height, I mean more importantly weight/build, I can see how she & Andrew would have a leg up on the other US pairs if they started training a quad twist or a quad throw.

Btw, I read an article from several years back (when Gretchen was still competing as a single) wherein she stated that she had worked on her "core strength" in order to prevent any further injuries to her back (just like Sasha Cohen, she had sustained a stress fracture in her back and had to sit out a year). And just like Sasha, "core training" worked; her back when she lands those huge throw jumps is perfectly straight & strong, something I recall Peter Carruthers raving over.

Okay, back to Caroline Zhang and the question asked at the very top of this thread "Can She Regain Her Spot Among The Top US Ladies?". I say YES, of course she can, anybody can if they really want it enough to go that extra mile. Case in point, Alissa Czisny, I honestly thought she was done years ago. I mean she's been competing for 11 years in Seniors, since the days of Sarah Hughes/Sasha Cohen/Michelle Kwan/6.0! And to only come into her own these past few years is amazing (course COP helps tremendously as well; e.g. her spins). So I say if Alissa can do it, anybody can. They just have to rehaul whatever it is that's costing them points. For Alissa it was her mindset & jump technique, so she left her one & only long-time coach to train with Sato & Dunjien. And Caroline did the same, her nemesis was her technique, and she has improved a lot, but still has a lot more to do (e.g. mule kick is still there) and I personally think she can get even fitter. Same goes for Rachael.

The Olympics is only 2 years away, so between now & then the one that wants it the most, really wants it (not just talk) will p-r-o-v-e it by her actions. Whomever was down & out will come back literally "smokin'" next year, and by that I mean in terms of body!

 

[pangtongfan]

It is hard to say. It was great to see her comeback. However I think next year could be harder for her. Agnes beat her at Nationals despite bombing the long program, and has huge potential, more overall than Zhang at ths point. Wagner and Czisny arent going anywhere. However next year Gracie Gold will be senior. A revitalized Nagasu would still have the edge on her as well. Someone like Christina Gao could still improve alot. I would say she has to continue working very hard if she is to even stay where is now, let alone move up, lets put it that way. At this point I would still say she is a long shot for the 2014 team but she is atleast back in the mix, and that is already an achievement.

 

[kwanatic]

It depends on how much more she improves. The performance she had at nationals was remarkable for someone who was sitting in 12th place last year. Caroline still has a lot of work to do, but if she continues on this path I can't see her going anywhere but up. She's slimmed downed quite a bit since October and if she continues to train, she'll probably slim down some more. BUT her body type isn't willowy a la Mao or Alissa so to say she needs to get to that size is unrealistic and very unhealthy. Caroline was a good size back in the 2009-2010 season. If she can get back to that, she'd be in good shape both literally and figuratively.

Her speed has improved quite a bit but she's still a bit slow; her flip has improved tenfold, but her lutz and axel need a good amount of work, plus she has no salchow; but her loop is FABULOUS! I think the main thing this year was just to build confidence. She really floated through her SP looking calm and relaxed and as if she was truly enjoying being out there. Her LP had an air of determination about it; not much speed or relation to the music until the end...she was concentrating on the jumps. As her confidence continues to grow, hopefully she'll be able to settle in to her programs and add more to them (transitions, choreography, etc.).

In terms of making it back to number one...I'm a little skeptical, especially with the younger girls coming up through the ranks. Everyone seems to think Gracie Gold is the heir apparent to the US figure skating throne (I'm not convinced yet...) and if Agnes and Christina ever get themselves together, they'd be in good shape. Then you have Ashley, Alissa and Mirai to contend with as well. I think as long as Caroline continues to improve, she'll be able to remain competitive, especially if she finds some of that consistency she had back in 2007, 2008 and 2009. A top 5 finish is an accomplishment, especially when a year before you were nowhere near that.

No matter where she places I'm just so proud of her for sticking with this sport, rediscovering her love for it and making the necessary improvements to work herself back into the mix. Her SP and LP at nationals were two of my top three highlights.

 

[R.D.]

In terms of making it back to number one...I'm a little skeptical, especially with the younger girls coming up through the ranks. Everyone seems to think Gracie Gold is the heir apparent to the US figure skating throne (I'm not convinced yet...) and if Agnes and Christina ever get themselves together, they'd be in good shape. Then you have Ashley, Alissa and Mirai to contend with as well. I think as long as Caroline continues to improve, she'll be able to remain competitive, especially if she finds some of that consistency she had back in 2007, 2008 and 2009. A top 5 finish is an accomplishment, especially when a year before you were nowhere near that.

I probably agree most with this comment. But one thing is clear- when you get as low as Zhang did last year, one of two things typically happens- you quit, or you fight like mad to turn things around. It's clear that Zhang has a lot of fight and motivation within her, and it remains to be seen how far that will end up taking her. I'm tempted to say she won't get there, but I didn't think Czisny would turn things around last year either...