The state of U.S. Figure Skating

[R.D.]

I'm wondering if there is not adequate preparation for competition, not adequate managing of training to prepare them to peak at Worlds. They all three peaked for the season at Nationals and apparently had absolutely nothing left for Worlds. That's a problem of preparation not relationship. And preparation can be fixed.

But that's what will happen if you make Nationals THE qualifier for Olympics/Worlds. The skaters will want to do their best at Nationals to get on the world team in the first place. Instead, if you make Nationals only part of the equation (i.e. send only the champion), that might ease the pressure a bit.

How about holding US Nationals in December instead, like most of the European countries and Japan? Or move it back to early January like it was before 2007.

 

[cornell08]

Caroline still has major weaknesses though. Her lack of speed and small jumps would still be a major problem at Worlds for instance.

Her score at 4CC would have put her in the Top 5 at Worlds and given the US a chance at 3 spots.

 

[krenseby]

Her score at 4CC would have put her in the Top 5 at Worlds and given the US a chance at 3 spots.

In all fairness, she probably wouldn't have gotten the same score at Worlds as she did at 4CC even if she skated exactly the same. It would have to be at least a bit lower.

 

[Serious Business]

The state of US figure skating by discipline as per the results of these recent World Championships:

Ice dancing: beyond fantastic! Three young teams, including a brand new one, all in the top 10, including the silver medalists! The best darn ice dance coaching team lives in the US. America is the premier power in ice dancing in the world right now. Who'd thunk it just a few years ago?

Pairs: A discipline whose prospects I wailed and bemoaned on these very boards not so long ago. And boy am I larded with crow chow. Two teams in the top 10! That's the most of any country save Russia and China (which the US is tied with). So in that one regard, the US is in the same club as the two established pairs powerhouses. And both US teams are near-mint in newness. They can only improve. Exciting stuff.

Men: Dismal. The two competitors we sent did horrible! Clearly, men's figure skating is a lost cause in the US. From now on, all male US competitors will be barred from singles competition and shunted to ice dancing or pairs instead.

Women: Great and bad. The bad, of course, is Alissa. She spent basically the entire free skate rolling and sliding around the ice in her nighty, only occasionally getting up to do a spin. But her compatriot Ashley Wagner did the opposite. Ashley landed the point gettingest amount of jumps of any woman that night, and everything else was pretty good, too. She did great enough to place 4th. She has firmly announced herself as a world contender with her last few competitions. Ms. Wagner may have been content with being bridesmaid in the past, but now she is THE bride and she won't stop until she marries every groom in sight.

 

[cornell08]

In all fairness, she probably wouldn't have gotten the same score at Worlds as she did at 4CC even if she skated exactly the same. It would have to be at least a bit lower.

A bit perhaps, but between Caroline, Agnes and Alissa...Caroline is the toughest mentally. If she's skated well in practice, she skates well in competition. There have been no "oh but she prepared so well" followed by implosions.

 

[R.D.]

[Caroline Zhang's] score at 4CC would have put her in the Top 5 at Worlds and given the US a chance at 3 spots.

ok:

1) scores at 4CC were generous- she would have likely scored at least 5 pts lower for identical performance at worlds- see Ashley Wagner's FS

2) there was no pressure at 4CC. There would have been at Worlds. X-factor at play here - see Ashley Wagner SP

3) I should point out that Wagner's 4CC score, even subtracting the 5-7 points, would have been enough for the win or a close 2nd. But Wagner did not finish 1st or 2nd here- she finished 4th. YOU NEVER KNOW WHAT A SKATER WILL BRING TO A COMPETITION.

 

[alexeifan]

i don't think caroline zhang should have been second and on the world team or anything, she still had problems in the fs. her lutz was bad so i can see why they put alissa ahead. they just should have saw the warning sign at CC.

 

[cornell08]

ok:

1) scores at 4CC were generous- she would have likely scored at least 5 pts lower for identical performance at worlds- see Ashley Wagner's FS

2) there was no pressure at 4CC. There would have been at Worlds. X-factor at play here - see Ashley Wagner SP

3) I should point out that Wagner's 4CC score, even subtracting the 5-7 points, would have been enough for the win or a close 2nd. But Wagner did not finish 1st or 2nd here- she finished 4th. YOU NEVER KNOW WHAT A SKATER WILL BRING TO A COMPETITION.

Wagner has a history of botched SP. You never know exactly what a skater will bring. BUT YOU HAVE AN INKLING.

 

[Kissx3]

Eh, we can't know how Caroline would've done. She's really only had two strong competitions now. Granted, I think she would've done better than 22nd and the writing did seem to be on the wall with Czisny's recent results. Caroline also did beat the 5th and 7th placers here at 4CC and it's unlikely that she would've dropped below 8th (150.10) with two decent performances, but really who knows what she would've done here.

 

[R.D.]

Wagner has a history of botched SP. You never know exactly what a skater will bring. BUT YOU HAVE AN INKLING.

She was doing fine in the SP this year actually- finally got over the hump at a major comp (Nationals) and even 4CCs- I think she was feeling it at Worlds though. But again, this is good experience for her. Next time, hopefully she can do better.

UP TO NATIONALS, Czisny fully earned her Worlds spot. But in the two months leading up to worlds, something happened. Was USFS monitoring her and making sure she's in top condition like they should? (They should have done the same with Wagner, too, and all the other US World Team members.) Challenge cup should have been a huge red flag for USFS but they blew it off. She probably should have been replaced.......


.....but IMO it wouldn't have changed the result much. Again, the alternate was Zawadzki. I wonder if she would have to qualify if she were sent- with her shaky FSs it's not a given that she would have even made it to the SP. So again, damned if we do,...

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I think that's a good point RD, that it wouldn't have mattered whoever else we sent because they would have had to finish in the top 10 to help us get 3 spots. Any mistakes would have kept Agnes or Caroline out.

 

[R.D.]

Eh, we can't know how Caroline would've done. She's really only had two strong competitions now. Granted, I think she would've done better than 22nd and the writing did seem to be on the wall with Czisny's recent results.

Then again, you know...I thought Czisny would have done better than 22nd even AFTER Challenge cup. But not much better- perhaps mid-teens.

 

[Bentley]

I think just about any of them would have finished better than 22nd. Worst showing for a US woman that I remember.

 

[silverlake22]

Maybe the state of US skating is not so bad, I think it's more who was sent to Worlds that is the problem.

Ashley was great, 4th at Worlds and 3rd in the FS is nothing to sneeze at. Then we have Gracie Gold coming up, Mirai if she can get her mojo back (yes I know she is a headcase but never in the Alissa category), Caroline skating well, and Agnes and Christina very good jumpers when "on" and young enough that they have time to improve everything else.

In men, I'm encouraged. Denis Ten was 7th here and didn't skate that much better than he did at JW - Josh Farris creamed D10 at JW, so honestly, had he been sent to Worlds and skated like he did at JW here, he probably would have finished 6th. I honestly think he would have, we saw D10's PCS shoot up significantly just from being at a senior event, and with the generous scoring and extra element in the FS, I really think Josh would have been close to 80 for SP and 150+ for FS with his JW performances. And he's just barely 17. Jason Brown is great but the lack of 3a worries me, will he end up like Rippon? In any event I don't think Rippon will be on the World team next year, if Farris can have a respectable GP debut and skate fairly consistently - he has the same strengths as Rippon but with the huge benefit of a much better/more consistent 3a, and his 4t is so much closer than Adam's 4s, and is 5 years younger, so really its a no brainer there. Ricky I'm sure will bounce back, and again, he has the solid 3a(-3t!!) and his quad is coming along better than Rippon's. Ross is improving nicely and becoming pretty consistent/reliable, and is focusing on quads in the offseason. If Jason Brown does manage to get a solid 3a, he will surely contend as well. Then someone else could rise to the plate - Armin, Max, Keegan, etc are all capable. And we have Nathan Chen for post 2014, that kid is a phenom, I know he's 75 pounds and 4'9", but I think he will still be a force after he grows, and realistically he'll probably end up about Oda's size when fully grown so his small size isn't too concerning now, plus his technique is spot on and he's now being coached by Raphael. As for Jeremy, I don't think he'll ever get it together at Worlds, but his PCS are really good, so I don't have a problem with him going to Worlds next season IF HE EARNS IT (no being held up, please).

My ideal/realistic choices for Worlds next year are:

Ashley and Gracie for the ladies (or Mirai if she gets her mojo back, or Christina if she can consistently be hitting 7 triple FS and improves artistically)

Josh and Ricky for the men (or Ross if Ricky is still shaky and he gets a quad, or Jeremy if he can get his TES up)

Marley/Brubaker and Donlan/Speroff for the pairs (or Denney/Coughlin or Yankowskas/Reagan if Donlan is still fudging her jumps all the time)

 

[fscric]

I think just about any of them would have finished better than 22nd. Worst showing for a US woman that I remember.

Can't even imagine what would it have been if falls should get zero points or progressive deduction for each additional fall as suggested by some figure skating fans.

 

[silverlake22]

I blame the USF for Adam, Alissa.
Adam was held up at Nationals. His PCS should be way lower. I said it when I saw it. There's no way he's competitive. After 4CC, they should have sent Ross.
Alissa was help up greatly at Nat. Her PCS was a joke. She had no transition at all. Her SP shouldn't get anywhere near 60 but they gave her 63 or something. Ridiculous. Her LP should get about 20 points lower than actual score. Somehow she managed to win the silver medal. Disgusting! Judging at Nat is about the same as here. No real accountability at all. Anyway, after the Challenge cup, take her out of the roster. Put Zhang in. You don't have to follow the alternate order. Mirai finished lower than Rachael, but they put her in the alternate list anyway, correct? They can change the list to have Zhang as first alternate after 4cc.
Jeremy was a hot mess at the Challenge cup, but because he wasn't injured and because he won fair and square at Nats, I would still send him.

I would investigate Yuka and Jason and Alissa. Fine them, humiliate them in public, have hersh beat them with a proverbial stick just like they did to Rachael last year. Well, not even so. They should have harsher punishment for these three because they KNEW what would happen and they did it anyway.

Ross or Josh Farris would have been a safer bet than Rippon, internationally the PCS are all the same, and ADAM ESSENTIALLY DOES NOT HAVE A 3A. Heck even Mahbanoozadeh would have been a safer bet than Rippon. But I mean, honestly, Farris beat Denis Ten by 13 points at JW, Denis skated just slightly better here than at JW and winds up 7th - ahead of both Americans. Heck even Jason Brown with no 3a beat D10 at JW. The sad thing is Rippon's performance here was not even disappointing - he skated exactly like he has all season, the quad is never more than 3.5 rotations and always a fall or 2ft, he always fudges up at least one axel if not both, when he does miraculously manage to land the 3a, he exits the jump at a standstill due to stalking it for 20 seconds before the takeoff. Honestly, why not send Ross, who beat Adam at 4CC and is on the upswing, who can actually do a respectable 3a and is proving himself to be a very strong competitor? Or send Farris after posting that big score at JW, he is just 17 and shows so much promise for the future, and has great technique on his jumps (including the 3a), has been training the 4t and already tried it in competition with more success than Adam, and has posture, spins, and artistry that are just beautiful. Sure, maybe they would have ended up 13th, but honestly, either would have probably placed higher, and a 17 year old placing 13th with that kind of talent doesn't even look bad, a 22 year old who can't land a decent 3a and is supposedly the number 2 man in the nation finishing 13th does.

 

[Becki]

^ silverlake22

Sadly, I would have to agree with you on Adam. He really needs to consistently land 3As before attempting quads if he wants to be a serious threat on international podiums.

Jeremy has the potential to be a world medalist and even WC, but he has been so inconsistent lately. I think he peaks too early...

 

[R.D.]

Can't even imagine what would it have been if falls should get zero points or progressive deduction for each additional fall as suggested by some figure skating fans.

I remember I suggested a similar system a few weeks back. I'm guessing under that, she would have failed to make the free skate with her mess of a short program...

 

[R.D.]

Ashley was great, 4th at Worlds and 3rd in the FS is nothing to sneeze at. Then we have Gracie Gold coming up, Mirai if she can get her mojo back (yes I know she is a headcase but never in the Alissa category), Caroline skating well, and Agnes and Christina very good jumpers when "on" and young enough that they have time to improve everything else.

You know what, I'm done with having any hope for the ladies whatsoever. Six years in this funk, and EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM has had a lady who tanks/fails to rise to the occasion. Actually, now that I think about it, Czisny is the only one of those ladies who has failed on more than one occasion. That's it, no more World Championship for her ever again. Stick a fork in her, she's done for good this time...

Perhaps Ashley Wagner & Gracie Gold next year? Even then I'm not holding my breath. One or both of them will find a way to screw it up :sarcasm:

 

[silverlake22]

^ silverlake22

Sadly, I would have to agree with you on Adam. He really needs to consistently land 3As before attempting quads if he wants to be a serious threat on international podiums.

Jeremy has the potential to be a world medalist and even WC, but he has been so inconsistent lately. I think he peaks too early...

I think he was trying to get a quad so that he didn't need to rely on his 3a so much, but sadly, he doesn't really have a quad either, it seems, at least not in competition. I like Adam as a skater but he really has no business being sent to Worlds when his 3a is that unstable and his quad attempts are always <<.

As for Jeremy, it's one thing to be a headcase and to represent a country like France or Czech Republic, because we all know Brian and Tomas are very talented and have bombed all over the place at various events these past few years, but their teams keep earning 2 spots to Euros and Worlds, and no one else sitting at home is close to being as good as them even when they tank, so it's fine if they want to continue competing and continue to be named to these teams. It's different for Jeremy, yes he is talented, but when he continually flubs his skates like this, he really shouldn't be getting sent to major events automatically. There are too many talented men sitting at home in the US who deserve a chance to go if he's not going to deliver, and could likely top his placement/scores with solid skates.

For example, the men's event wasn't that strong apart from the top 5 skaters. Had Ross or Josh been given the chance to go, they likely could have placed 7th with replication of their 4CC and JW programs - that would have been huge for either going into next season, just add to the momentum they already gained from their good showings at other events this season, but instead Jeremy and Adam went, Jeremy underperformed as expected and Adam performed as he usually does and winds up 13th. Some people act surprised but I suspected this would happen. Jeremy said are you serious? after being placed below D10, but honestly, he didn't deserve to place above D10 with those skates, I don't care how good his SS are and how emotional that FS is - he needs to get it together when it counts, or he's not going to get anywhere near the podium.