3rd Japanese man who will go to Sochi Olympics

[pangtongfan]

OK lets be real here, we all know that Takahashi and Hanyu are going to next years Olympics even if one of them bombs Nationals next year. So who will be the 3rd and final man going to Sochi if you had to predict now. Right now my odds would be:

Kozuka- 50%
Mura- 20%
Machida- 15%
Oda- 10%
All others combined- 5%

 

[starryxskies]

Hate to agree, but seems like it's all over for Oda :'(
Guess he had his chance.

I'm still in shock that Kozuka didn't get named to 4CC considering his GP accomplishments. I feel like JSF is testing Mura's capabilities for the rest of this season. So I'd like to believe Machida's chances are closer to Oda's given that Oda at least performs. Machida has really gone down south at both GPF and JN.

My bet is on Kozuka and Mura, depending on how Mura performs at 4CC and Worlds. Though I have a soft spot for Kozuka... and I hope this just means he'll have extra time to practice for next season.

 

[blue_idealist]

I think it's going to be Kozuka. It might be sort of flukish that Mura beat Kozuka this year at Nats.

 

[Leonardo]

I think it's going to be Kozuka. It might be sort of flukish that Mura beat Kozuka this year at Nats.

Yes. Kozuka is overall a much better skater, although Mura is very exciting, has more power (maybe speed) and shows excellent potential. I'm kinda sad that Kozuka is not going to worlds this year, because in the gp series he looked one of the best 5 men in the world and showed such beautiful artistry (I love his sp choreo/music). But I'm glad Mura had the opportunity to go, it sounds fair.

 

[NMURA]

I wonder if the JSF is considering the possiblity that Hanyu wins OGM and retires after that or follow the path of Plushenko after Torino. In that case, they need someone who can lead Japanese men with consistent quads. Takahashi and Oda are surely retiring after 2014. Kozuka has already passed his prime (jumping abilities) and his "quad" will become unreliable to useless. Machida... looks like he has a "good season" once in three years. The next could be three years later.

 

[blue_idealist]

I wonder if the JSF is considering the possiblity that Hanyu wins OGM and retires after that or follow the path of Plushenko after Torino. In that case, they need someone who can lead Japanese men with consistent quads. Takahashi and Oda are surely retiring after 2014. Kozuka has already passed his prime (jumping abilities) and his "quad" will become unreliable to useless. Machida... looks like he has a "good season" once in three years. The next could be three years later.

I bet that even if Hanyu wins the OGM, he won't retire. He's too young. I don't think he'll win the OGM though until 2018, I mean, some people were predicting Chan to win the OGM in 2010 and that wasn't really his time yet.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I bet that even if Hanyu wins the OGM, he won't retire. He's too young. I don't think he'll win the OGM though until 2018, I mean, some people were predicting Chan to win the OGM in 2010 and that wasn't really his time yet.

I think Hanyu could win gold in Sochi. I was very impressed at how well Orser prepared Yuna for her gold medal performances. Skating to the absolute best of your ability is so rare under that kind of pressure and with Brian's help I can see Hanyu being equally well prepared.

 

[FlattFan]

If Hanyu wins silver or gold at this World, he's most likely to win Gold in Sochi. By the time Sochi comes around, he would be twice World medalists. His TES in the SP would be huge. His PCS would increase enough by Sochi to really separate him and the rest of the field.

In the LP, he can afford one or two small mistakes and still come out ahead, assuming the other contenders like Chan and Takahashi are absolutely clean. If they are not, then they really have no chance.

Poor Dai, I wish he's won an Olym gold before he retires, but at this rate, he won't be able to catch Hanyu.

 

[iluvtodd]

Let it be Taka!

 

[MaiKatze]

I want the third man to be the one who skates best next season. Everything else would be unfair. I would like Kozuka to be the one, if I had the choice, but no matter how beautiful he skates or whatever he does, it seems like he always makes mistakes. I thought last season was just a bad season for him, but it seems like this season is even worse. If Mura does well, he should be the one going to Sochi. Kozuka already went to Olympic Games, as did Oda. They had chance after chance, after chance. If others are better, they should be given a chance to proove themselves, too. Simple as that.

Considering the OGM, while I think Hanyu really has a chance, people always forget Plushenko. I think Hanyu can beat Plushenko, but the games are in Russia! And these are definitely the last games of Plushenko, I guess. So I think Plushenkos chances are very good, if he's on form. It's home ice!

 

[Nadia01]

I don't think it's going to be Oda.

Probably Kozuka is the most likely 3rd man, unless he is not healthy and does not perform well next season. Then it's going to be Mura. I don't think they'll send Machida.

 

[pangtongfan]

Machida seemed on the verge of breaking through to me, but then he has a super bad Nationals and Mura makes the team instead. That will be hard for him to recover from.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

I pretty much agree with ptf's rankings, if not the percentages.