Which Ladies Can Skate a 130+ LP at Worlds?

[FlattFan]

ETA: Kostner won't get more than 130 and might not get that. She isn't doing a 3-3, is she? I think she will score a few points above a clean Ashley, based on her PCS.

Kostner got more than 130 for a 4 clean triples LP at Euro. She doesn't need 3x3 to score more than 130.
If Kostner lands 6 clean triples, she will crack 140.

 

[jenaj]

Kostner got more than 130 for a 4 clean triples LP at Euro. She doesn't need 3x3 to score more than 130.
If Kostner lands 6 clean triples, she will crack 140.

She was over scored in PCS at Euros. I doubt if she will land 6 clean triples, with or without a 3-3.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

Um the only time Yuna Kim reached 150+ was at the 2010 Olympics. When the judges were giving PBs like candy and the skaters performed at their optimal best. Not to mention that you don't have the spiral sequence anymore in the FS. And in fact Yuna is the only skater to have reached 150+ EVER.

And only a handful of skaters have reached 130+. Out of the present crowd that's Yuna, Mao and Carolina. Ashley, Adelina and Akiko PBs are in the high 120s.

Also the third double axel (which has been dropped by one). Eliza was already mentioned as being part of the 130 crowd.

She was over scored in PCS at Euros. I doubt if she will land 6 clean triples, with or without a 3-3.

1. Do you believe that the judges won't overscore her in PCS at Worlds?

2. Given that Kostner just delivered a program with a clean, positive GOE 3-3, what makes you doubt her abilities to do so at Worlds (in the long program)?

 

[FlattFan]

My guess is:

high 130s-140: Yuna (the only person going over 140 is a perfect Yuna, IMO)

Highly doubt this will happen. Yuna is not in top form compare to the Olympics, and she almost never skate a clean LP. High 130s? The other two girls are more likely to score high 130s than Yuna at this point.

 

[chuckm]

because 4CC was held outside
while Worlds will be on home ground
Osmond will have a huge advantage with this and yes if she is clean judges will give her 70+ in pcs for FS
with 2 falls plus inflation she will get 120+ only though

Skate Canada was on home ground and she received 59.61 for PCS and a total of 115.89 points with one fall.
Worlds is NOT Canadian Nationals, where all the judges were Canadian. At Worlds, NONE of the Ladies event judges will be Canadian. Which of nine of BUL DEN EST FIN GEO GER GBR JPN ROU RSA ESP SUI do you think are going to give Osmond 8.5-9.5 in PCS scores (which she would need to score 140 points)? IMO, since the great majority of the judges are European, Kostner and the Russian ladies will benefit far more than Osmond.

 

[shine]

Osmond received 115.89 for her best international FS (SC) with one fall and that was with "Canadian inflation".
TES: 57.28
PCS: 59.61

At 4CC, she got 103.16 for a one-fall FS with a singled double and a doubled triple.
TES: 48.72
PCS: 55.44

Osmond hasn't cracked 60 PCS for her FS, so I don't see how she could reach 70.
If she's scored below 120 with one fall, I fail to see how she could score over 120 with two falls.
Maybe when pigs fly.....

No worries, Chuck/euterpe. Sky_fly20 is a non-fan of Osmond's. You don't need to argue with her.

 

[vera01]

Actually, Yuna can score almost 150. Her steps received level three at Nationals. She can receive level four for her LSp, but without Biellman, I don't think she's going to receive level three for her LSp.

Mao's potential score is about 145, too. It's just that she's probably not going to skate a flawless program.

 

[NMURA]

Mao potentially can break 150. 145 is the expected mark for a "flawless" FS with a 3F-3Lo<. Assuming 70 for the PCS.

highest scores of this season
3Lo (4CC) = 6.5
3A (4CC SP) = 10.1
3F-3Lo< (4CC) = 8.5
3Lz (4CC) = 5.7
2A-3T (NHK) = 8.6
3S (COC) - 4.9
3F-2Lo-2Lo (4CC) = 10.0
Spins and Steps (GPF) = 22.0
Total TES = 76.3

2A-3T and 3S are not multiplied by 1.1, so it could be a little higher.

 

[change of edge]

Good analysis! It really looks like this World championship will have some very high scores this year.

Mao potentially can break 150. 145 is the expected mark for a "flawless" FS with a 3F-3Lo<. Assuming 70 for the PCS.

highest scores of this season
3Lo (4CC) = 6.5
3A (4CC SP) = 10.1
3F-3Lo< (4CC) = 8.5
3Lz (4CC) = 5.7
2A-3T (NHK) = 8.6
3S (COC) - 4.9
3F-2Lo-2Lo (4CC) = 10.0
Spins and Steps (GPF) = 22.0
Total TES = 76.3

2A-3T and 3S are not multiplied by 1.1, so it could be a little higher.

 

[sky_fly20]

Skate Canada was on home ground and she received 59.61 for PCS and a total of 115.89 points with one fall.
Worlds is NOT Canadian Nationals, where all the judges were Canadian. At Worlds, NONE of the Ladies event judges will be Canadian. Which of nine of BUL DEN EST FIN GEO GER GBR JPN ROU RSA ESP SUI do you think are going to give Osmond 8.5-9.5 in PCS scores (which she would need to score 140 points)? IMO, since the great majority of the judges are European, Kostner and the Russian ladies will benefit far more than Osmond.

it doesnt matter who the judges will be its more about the venue is
why else can a Mao even with doubles get in 130+, If Osmond is clean I can see judges rewarding her generously
Omsonds pcs will be in 70+ and will rival that of Mao and Yuna.

like I said if one of those 3 falters Osmond for sure will win a medal.

 

[vera01]

it doesnt matter who the judges will be its more about the venue is
why else can a Mao even with doubles get in 130+, If Osmond is clean I can see judges rewarding her generously
Omsonds pcs will be in 70+ and will rival that of Mao and Yuna.

like I said if one of those 3 falters Osmond for sure will win a medal.

Yuna received 71.76 for her Olympic performance. Olympic Yuna is definitely better than Kaetlyn, and deserve much higher PCS. Judges aren't just going to give 70 for a Canadian girl who is competing at her debut World Championships. I doubt she would even receive 8+ for SS.

 

[sky_fly20]

Yuna received 71.76 for her Olympic performance. Olympic Yuna is definitely better than Kaetlyn, and deserve much higher PCS. Judges aren't just going to give 70 for a Canadian girl who is competing at her debut World Championships. I doubt she would even receive 8+ for SS.

she recieved 8's at skate Canada and Worlds will be at home again
I think she will rival Mao and Kostner's pcs

 

[NMURA]

It's quite embarrassing (for her and her fans) to talk about Osmond in THIS thread. Very strange things could happen at Skate Canada. Four years ago, a man touted as the next big thing "won" with the seventh highest TES. He "won" the same season's 4CC at home but Osmond has left only bad impressions heading into worlds.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

It's quite embarrassing (for her and her fans) to talk about Osmond in THIS thread.

But it's not Osmond fans that are bringing her up here, but some haters being ridiciulous about how inflated her scores will supposedly be.

Yuna breaking 150? Her current BV layout assuming she'll get level 4 on everything is 58.63. Getting straigth +3's on everything would give her +24 in GOE, meaning a TES of 82.63. But does anyone think even a completly clean Yuna will have +3 everywhere? An average of +2's would mean +16 GOE and 74.63 in TES.
Caro received around 70 in PCS at Euro's, and that was the highest score given this season in an ISU event. Despite marks going up a little between Euros and worlds, I don't see Yuna receiving that much higher marks given Caro's better SS, so maybe if you want to be really optimistic 75 is doable, but I doubt any woman will get a score like that.
Even taking together 74.63 and 75 in PCS is not quite breaking 150. And I still think 75 in PCS seems to high. Probably about 70 in PCS is realistic and that combines to 144+, still a very huge score.

For Caro not even getting over 130: huge . Even if it's unlikely, getting 7 triples done (including 3F-3T) plus level 4's will give her a BV of 59.11. Her possible +GOE's are nearly exactly the same as Yunas, and Caro can easily get great GOE for jumps and steps. With +16 in GOE her TES would be 75.11. Plus 70 in PCS which she got at Euro's she'd be at 145+. A clean Caro will break the 140, no doubt.
Now people can say she won't be clean, alright. Let's take the 3F-3T out and say she'll only do a 2T (loss of 2.7 points in BV) and she might pop one of her Salchows again (loss of about 4 points). She'd still be around 135 with that (as the Euro's performance showed quite well). Except for Mao and Yuna, I don't see anyone beating that.

For Mao, even assuming she'll get 3F-3Lo< she has by far the highest BV. Everything ratified would even give her 68.65. Plus about 67 in PCS (what she got at 4CC) she's at 135.65 without the +GOE. Now Mao is not as likely as the other two to get huge GOE for her jumps, but she does for her spins and steps. So let's be a little pessimistic and say +1 on everything except the 3Lz, it would be +7.8. Overall 143.45. Even with 3F-3Lo< she'd break the 140, and clean she might come really close to 150 (although it's very unlikely).

Additionally, Liza already got 130+ and Akiko at 4CC and Adelina at Euros showed they're capable of 130+ if clean.
As for Ashley, she's been in the high 120's, but that was already when she was very close to perfect. Without a 3-3 she might break the 130 due to generally increasing scores dring the season, but I don't think she has the same scoring potential as the other 6 ladies mentioned above. Gracie would score over 130 if she was clean.

So I'd say it's four ladies who are likely to break 130 (Yuna, Mao, Caro and Liza) and three who have a shot at it but are rather unlikely (Akiko, Adelina and Gracie).

 

[FSGMT]

For Mao, even assuming she'll get 3F-3Lo< she has by far the highest BV. Everything ratified would even give her 68.65. Plus about 67 in PCS (what she got at 4CC) she's at 135.65 without the +GOE. Now Mao is not as likely as the other two to get huge GOE for her jumps, but she does for her spins and steps. So let's be a little pessimistic and say +1 on everything except the 3Lz, it would be +7.8. Overall 143.45. Even with 3F-3Lo< she'd break the 140, and clean she might come really close to 150 (although it's very unlikely).

This IF she lands a clean 3A: she did it in the 4CC SP, but we don't know if (even if she lands it) it will be ratified, it is probable that it will be a 3A<, so around 5 points. And, I think that she can break the 70 in the PCS: remember that the 4CC panel was really harsh with Mao...

 

[Jammers]

I don't see how Liza can break 130+ at Worlds. As far as i'm concerned she still skates small and compared to some of the other girls her age she skates slow and still doesn't have great ice coverage.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

This IF she lands a clean 3A: she did it in the 4CC SP, but we don't know if (even if she lands it) it will be ratified, it is probable that it will be a 3A<, so around 5 points. And, I think that she can break the 70 in the PCS: remember that the 4CC panel was really harsh with Mao...

That's true, I've just wanted to start the above post with what I think would happen with a good to very good skate. The worst part about the 3A at 4CC wasn't the < but the bad two-footed landing resulting in -2/-3 GOE. If I change her BV to 3A< and 3F-3Lo< it's still 64.65, and still huge. She might break 140 with that still
And it's nice to hear you think Mao could break 70 in PCS - I think she'll be a little behind Caro and maybe Yuna if everyone skates equally well, that's why I didn't want to bump her up to 70. If I'd be too optimistic, I'd feel it's just my little fan heart getting in the way

 

[chuckm]

she recieved 8's at skate Canada and Worlds will be at home again
I think she will rival Mao and Kostner's pcs

No, she didn't. Osmond's Skate Canada scores:
60.56 33.21 27.35 6.68 6.61 6.96 6.86 7.07 0.00 SP
115.89 57.28 59.61 7.32 7.25 7.61 7.46 7.61 1.00 FS

 

[FlattFan]

http://kunstrijden.knsb.nl/2012-2013/20130221/TheH210213_SeniorLadies_FS_Scores.pdf

Kostner landed a clean 3Lz again. And went for 3F-3T in the LP. Her PCS stayed 70+. I think she will go for 7 triples at World. Will be epic this year.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I'm glad to see Carolina gets +2 to +3 on her lutz. Even though it isn't preceded or followed by steps I love seeing the classic lutz entry. Everything about that jump is perfect.