Sochi favourites
- Thread starter koatcue
- Start date
- Joined
- Feb 25, 2006
Men: Chan, Hanyu, Fernandez, Ten, Takahashi.. if he leaves Morozov! If not, Reynolds. Seriously.
Ladies: Asada, Kim, Kostner, Wagner, Murakami.
Pairs: Volosozhar/Trankov, Savchenko/Szolkowy, Duhamel/Radford, Moore-Towers/Moscovitch, Bazarova/Larionov.
Dance: Davis/White, Virtue/Moir, Pechalat/Bourzat, Bobrova/Soloviev, Weaver/Poje (I think when P/B and W/P aren't recovering from injury, they are both better than Cappellini/Lanotte).
Ladies: Asada, Kim, Kostner, Wagner, Murakami.
Pairs: Volosozhar/Trankov, Savchenko/Szolkowy, Duhamel/Radford, Moore-Towers/Moscovitch, Bazarova/Larionov.
Dance: Davis/White, Virtue/Moir, Pechalat/Bourzat, Bobrova/Soloviev, Weaver/Poje (I think when P/B and W/P aren't recovering from injury, they are both better than Cappellini/Lanotte).
- Joined
- Jun 16, 2010
Men:
1. Fernandez
2. Hanyu
3. Ten
4. Chan
5. Reynolds
Ladies:
1. Kim
2. Kostner
3. Asada
4. Wagner
5. Li
Pairs:
1. Volosozhar & Trankov
2. Savchenko & Szolkowy
3. Barazova & Larionov
4. Duhamel & Radford
5. Moore-Towers & Moscovitch
Dance:
1. Davis & White
2. Virtue & Moir
3. Bobrova & Soloviev
4. Weaver & Poje
5. Capellini & Lanotte
- Joined
- Jan 28, 2013
Since it's now the off-season, there's no reason to be conventional:
I think Max Aaron makes the podium.
I also think B/S sneak in for the silver in dance, just ahead of V/M.
Olympic judges have a way of driving a stake through the heart when they're ready for you to move on... see Torvill and Dean.
I think Max Aaron makes the podium.
I also think B/S sneak in for the silver in dance, just ahead of V/M.
Olympic judges have a way of driving a stake through the heart when they're ready for you to move on... see Torvill and Dean.
I could see Max going Top 5. These men showed they are not the most consistent bunch around.
Even as a huge D/W fan, the thought of V/M losing to B/S is not something I can handle. I enjoy making the wild predictions though before the GP brings us back to reality.
- Joined
- Feb 5, 2012
Men:
1. Javier Fernandez
2. Yuzuru Hanyu
3. Florent Amodio
4. Patrick Chan
5. Daisuke Takahashi
Pairs
1. V/T
2. S/S
3. D/R
4. K/S
5. P/T
Ladies
1. Yuna
2. Mao
3. Carolina
4. Kanako
5. Gracie
Ice Dancing
1. D/W
2. Virtue and her ice dance partner
3. W/P
4. B/S
5. I/K
1. Javier Fernandez
2. Yuzuru Hanyu
3. Florent Amodio
4. Patrick Chan
5. Daisuke Takahashi
Pairs
1. V/T
2. S/S
3. D/R
4. K/S
5. P/T
Ladies
1. Yuna
2. Mao
3. Carolina
4. Kanako
5. Gracie
Ice Dancing
1. D/W
2. Virtue and her ice dance partner
3. W/P
4. B/S
5. I/K
- Joined
- Aug 21, 2012
Men:
1. Hanyu
2. Fernandez
3. Chan
4. Takahashi
5. Ten
Ladies:
1. Kim
2. Kostner
3. Asada
4. Wagner
5. Gold
Ice Dance:
1. D/W
2. V/M
3. B/S
4. I/K
5. W/P
Pairs:
1. V/T
2. S/S
3. D/R
4. B/L
5. K/S
1. Hanyu
2. Fernandez
3. Chan
4. Takahashi
5. Ten
Ladies:
1. Kim
2. Kostner
3. Asada
4. Wagner
5. Gold
Ice Dance:
1. D/W
2. V/M
3. B/S
4. I/K
5. W/P
Pairs:
1. V/T
2. S/S
3. D/R
4. B/L
5. K/S
- Joined
- Jan 28, 2013
Of course everything is just speculation now. Still, this season signaled a strong shift in the dance rivalry. It wasn't back-and-forth affair. D/W went 3-0 against the Canadians. Coupling that with the home-country appeal of B/S, whom the judges appear to like very much... and anything could happen.
Inconsistency among the men in general is what prompted me to make a wild prediction of Aaron's medal chances. Sure, if everyone skates perfectly, then he has no shot. So far, he seems fairly immune to pressure. He's one of the few. A good finish in his first worlds, and the confidence gained from that experience. He could do it.
- Joined
- Dec 21, 2011
Oh goody I do love me a predictions thread
Ladies
1. Kim
2. Kostner (only potential spoiler for gold and her chances of it are extremely low- maybe 15% at most)
3. Asada (only potential spoiler for silver and her chances of it are low- maybe 33% at most)
4-5. Some combo of Gold, Wagner, Suzuki, a Russian. Outside chance for Osmond, Li, Murakami. Any of these a potential spoiler for bronze but chances low at this point (less than 10%)
Dance
1. Davis/White and can I get a woo-hoo.
2. Virtue/Moir
3. B/S (must learn how to spell his last name)
4-5. C/L, W/P, or P/B in some order. Any has an outside chance of bronze.
Pairs
1. V/T
huge gap
2. S/S
very tiny margin
3-5. MTM, D/R, B/L in some order
Ladies
1. Kim
2. Kostner (only potential spoiler for gold and her chances of it are extremely low- maybe 15% at most)
3. Asada (only potential spoiler for silver and her chances of it are low- maybe 33% at most)
4-5. Some combo of Gold, Wagner, Suzuki, a Russian. Outside chance for Osmond, Li, Murakami. Any of these a potential spoiler for bronze but chances low at this point (less than 10%)
Dance
1. Davis/White and can I get a woo-hoo.
2. Virtue/Moir
3. B/S (must learn how to spell his last name)
4-5. C/L, W/P, or P/B in some order. Any has an outside chance of bronze.
Pairs
1. V/T
huge gap
2. S/S
very tiny margin
3-5. MTM, D/R, B/L in some order
Men is the hardest to predict. I don't think Chan will have that many falls advantage next year. The backlash is too great. Especially at that kind of grand scale.
Ladies - top 3 are locked. Their PCS can afford them 2 pops/URed-falls in the LP. And at least one pop/fall in the SP. Even if the other girls are perfect, they still need these three to really really mess it up. The way Yuna is skating, no chance. The way Carolina is keeping herself together, no chance. The way Mao is fighting back, no chance. This will be just like 2010 Olympics where Yuna, Mao, and Joannie are locked for the podium. You can have Zijun/Gold/Liza/Adelina/Ashley skate light out, and they would still be 10 points back just like Mirai/Miki did.
Dance - D/W will get the gold. V/M might retire, C/L for the bronze (I hope)
Pairs - V/T will get the gold. The two Canadians will be on the podium. There are a lot of good will for them next year. They got noticed. S/S are out. They are overrated, and messy.
Ladies - top 3 are locked. Their PCS can afford them 2 pops/URed-falls in the LP. And at least one pop/fall in the SP. Even if the other girls are perfect, they still need these three to really really mess it up. The way Yuna is skating, no chance. The way Carolina is keeping herself together, no chance. The way Mao is fighting back, no chance. This will be just like 2010 Olympics where Yuna, Mao, and Joannie are locked for the podium. You can have Zijun/Gold/Liza/Adelina/Ashley skate light out, and they would still be 10 points back just like Mirai/Miki did.
Dance - D/W will get the gold. V/M might retire, C/L for the bronze (I hope)
Pairs - V/T will get the gold. The two Canadians will be on the podium. There are a lot of good will for them next year. They got noticed. S/S are out. They are overrated, and messy.
- Joined
- Dec 29, 2011
Men:
I'm not completly sold on Denis Ten yet. He had a clean SP and a clean FS, which is amazing, but I guess the next season will show if he can hang onto that. For now, the top 4 are still Chan, Takahashi, Hanyu and Fernandez. The 5th one might be Plushenko, I'm still hoping for Kozuka though.
Ladies:
Top 3 is a given - Kim, Asada and Kostner. Murakami really had a great worlds and an overall solid season, I guess she has good chances for top 5. My last pick would be a russian, Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva, depending on who does better next season.
I'm not completly sold on Denis Ten yet. He had a clean SP and a clean FS, which is amazing, but I guess the next season will show if he can hang onto that. For now, the top 4 are still Chan, Takahashi, Hanyu and Fernandez. The 5th one might be Plushenko, I'm still hoping for Kozuka though.
Ladies:
Top 3 is a given - Kim, Asada and Kostner. Murakami really had a great worlds and an overall solid season, I guess she has good chances for top 5. My last pick would be a russian, Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva, depending on who does better next season.
- Joined
- Feb 4, 2012
I think S/S are far from out. They had a bad season, with sickness and mediocre programs. I don't think they will get the gold, but V/T can and have made stupid mistakes before, so they might spoil themselves their own victory. At no point I believe that S/S will finish off podium. No way.
For Men it is the hardest to predict. To be honest, I also don't believe that Denis Ten will be on the podium. If the top form is there I think it will be between Hanyu and Fernandez if they keep up their nerves. Chan might get the gold, but I'm not so sure. Russia is not Canada. My biggest wish is a Daisuke medal, no matter what colour but it will be hard and he won't be able to make any mistakes at all. And that is extremely hard to do.
Ladies: Yuna has it in the bag. Unless Carolina or Mao melt down they will battle it out for Silver. I see no other lady that can spoil this atm, although I'd love it if Kanako would rise to the occasion or even Akiko.
For Men it is the hardest to predict. To be honest, I also don't believe that Denis Ten will be on the podium. If the top form is there I think it will be between Hanyu and Fernandez if they keep up their nerves. Chan might get the gold, but I'm not so sure. Russia is not Canada. My biggest wish is a Daisuke medal, no matter what colour but it will be hard and he won't be able to make any mistakes at all. And that is extremely hard to do.
Ladies: Yuna has it in the bag. Unless Carolina or Mao melt down they will battle it out for Silver. I see no other lady that can spoil this atm, although I'd love it if Kanako would rise to the occasion or even Akiko.
- Joined
- Jun 16, 2010
I am not sure what to think of S&Ss chances at this point. I still see them as the silver medal favorites, but they are not a lock for the silver (atleast) like they were a few months ago. There are teams who could even bump them to 3rd or 4th if they have problems. You mention the inconsistency of V&T but S&S are and always have been a very inconsistent team. How many clean LPs in their whole career can you think of. They briefly regained a whole new level of consistency for about 15 months wary of the major threat coming up with V&T, but as V&T have eventually passed them by anyway and with age advancement, they seem to have lost that completely. I could see them getting back to their 08-09 level of consistency (which still wasnt great) and that would probably be enough to keep them in 2nd, although it could be close. V&T arent losing gold unless all of the following happen: 1. They have several big mistakes, 2. S&S skate squeeky clean, 3. S&S have better programs than this year and build some momentum somehow going into the Games so they are even seen as a close competitor to V&T again. Not entirely impossible, but hugely unlikely, I would say their odds of winning over V&T are even less than what their odds of winning gold over S&Z in 2010 were. S&S have to look over their shoulders at various teams from Canada, Russia (excluding V&T), and possibly China as well, who will all be coming after them.
I agree with your men and ladies assessments. I must say I have a funny feeling Javier Fernandez will be next years Olympic winner. If the podium is any diferent for ladies than it was at this years Worlds, probably even the exact order (with the only possible change Koster and Asada switching, but even that I doubt) I will be amazed.
The dance will be another shootout between D&W and V&M and while D&W are the more likely Champions of next years Games now, as always in that great rivalry anything could happen. A similar shootout for the bronze, just with more teams involved. B&S are the most likely bronze medalists at next years Games now but are no means a certainty yet, and Weaver & Poje and Capellina & Lanotte have the best chances to steal that bronze away from them. I could see Pechalat & Bourzat or Chock & Bates getting in the top 5 possibly but not on the podium.
On one last note does anything think S&Z might make a surprise return ala 2010. If they do I predict it will be a much less successful one. They would no longer be sentimental favorites of any sort having gotten their Oly Gold, they would be older, they would be competing against V&T in Russia. If they do attempt a comeback I see them right off the podium in 4th or 5th place.
- Joined
- Nov 20, 2011
that would mean an ultimate desperation for Chinese Pairs
they wont have chances anyways and are too old in their middle 30's
they are already letting Pang/Tong stay I guess their second team will be a younger pair for experince for next quad
but I don't think it will be Sui/Han whose partnership is due to end (inserts Sui's growth starting ) anytime soon
There is a sub-zero chance that S/Z will return. What would be their motivation? I recall seeing an article last year saying how they would tour for one year, and then retire from show-skating to start a family.
I feel bad for S/S, but I just don't see them being able to hold off V/T. All their little upgrades - the triple axel, re-incorporating the triple salchow, are not going to garner them enough points to stave off V/T, who gain much more GOE on each element (deservedly), and now also have higher PCS (contentious).
I feel bad for S/S, but I just don't see them being able to hold off V/T. All their little upgrades - the triple axel, re-incorporating the triple salchow, are not going to garner them enough points to stave off V/T, who gain much more GOE on each element (deservedly), and now also have higher PCS (contentious).
- Joined
- Jun 16, 2010
I think Peng & Zhang will be their 2nd team. The Chinese skating federation has always loved He-Man Zhang, and as he is strong as an ox he could easily still be in shape for 2018 and the team might have gelled into a medal contender of some sort by then. Yu & Jin are also a possability, but coming 4th at the World Juniors where they were supposed to win isnt exactly a step in the right direction. They will need to compete on the Senior GP and have success for the Chinese fed. to even consider sending them over Peng & Zhang.
I agree Shen & Zhao coming back would be a sign of ultimate desperation from the Chinese fed. and unlike the booming success of 2010 would be a flop this time (coming 4th or 5th at the Olympics for them would be a flop). I dont think we will see it but with the situation in Chinese pairs anything is possible, but even S&Z would not change the medal picture for Sochi I dont think. Pang & Tong competing now clearly past their primes as well is also a sign of the Chinese fed. desperation IMO. I doubt even they think they have a shot at that Oly Gold they narrowly missed in 2010, and they already have 2 World titles and many other medals, and I suspect they are competing more out of a favor to the Chinese fed. than really wanting to do it at this point. Either way the Chinese are long shots for a medal in Sochi at best now, and will require one of the 3 medalists from Worlds having a very bad competition. As well as Barazova & Larionov, who I still think are threats for a medal in Sochi even after a poor Worlds.
I agree Shen & Zhao coming back would be a sign of ultimate desperation from the Chinese fed. and unlike the booming success of 2010 would be a flop this time (coming 4th or 5th at the Olympics for them would be a flop). I dont think we will see it but with the situation in Chinese pairs anything is possible, but even S&Z would not change the medal picture for Sochi I dont think. Pang & Tong competing now clearly past their primes as well is also a sign of the Chinese fed. desperation IMO. I doubt even they think they have a shot at that Oly Gold they narrowly missed in 2010, and they already have 2 World titles and many other medals, and I suspect they are competing more out of a favor to the Chinese fed. than really wanting to do it at this point. Either way the Chinese are long shots for a medal in Sochi at best now, and will require one of the 3 medalists from Worlds having a very bad competition. As well as Barazova & Larionov, who I still think are threats for a medal in Sochi even after a poor Worlds.
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