I hope Gold can find a good choreographer and have that transition. But Kwan was with Frank Carroll and Laurie Nichol and that combination of talent/drive/politicking is rare.
What do Ashley or Gracie need to do to Medal in Sochi
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I hope Gold can find a good choreographer and have that transition. But Kwan was with Frank Carroll and Laurie Nichol and that combination of talent/drive/politicking is rare.
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- Jun 16, 2010
I definitely agree if Gold skated clean and if she had improved her artistry alot in one year, and if Carolina and Mao both landed only 4 triples, she would win the bronze (or even silver) most likely. Those are alot of what ifs to come together at once though.
Gracie could become the 'Mirai Nagasu' of the 2014 Olympics, assuming the podium is 'a lock' again, with Yu Na/Mao/Carolina.
Ashley has actually beaten Mao several times before, and will have another shot at doing so at WTT. I'm definitely not counting her out despite the lack of triple-triple combinations. As Kurt Browning said during the Worlds FS: she actually has pretty good technique now (incredible compared to her jumps between 2008-2011) They are solid now, usually nice and rotated (except the 3T as a second jump) and she doesn't two-foot (or if she does it's barely visible compared to glaring two-footed landings earlier in her career). There was a time in 2011 that everyone had written off Ashley as a contender nationally, let alone internationally. She made a gutsy move, worked hard and came back strong. 2013 Worlds is actually the only competition since 2012 Nationals that she didn't bring home some medal (if you count 2012 Worlds FS bronze medal), and a lot of those medals have been gold.
Saying she's close (top 5 two years in a row) but will never be close enough sounds wrong. She's got such a ton of drive and competitive fire that she could surprise us yet. A new season is a new season and she might not use the same strategy she did for this season (playing it safe). After 'Black Swan' I wondered if she was going to be able to come up with an equally good program - she delivered something much, much better. So. No writing off Ashley. (what else did you expect from me
)
To answer the question: what does Ashley need? Equally good programs as this season and a solid strategy!
Ashley has actually beaten Mao several times before, and will have another shot at doing so at WTT. I'm definitely not counting her out despite the lack of triple-triple combinations. As Kurt Browning said during the Worlds FS: she actually has pretty good technique now (incredible compared to her jumps between 2008-2011) They are solid now, usually nice and rotated (except the 3T as a second jump) and she doesn't two-foot (or if she does it's barely visible compared to glaring two-footed landings earlier in her career). There was a time in 2011 that everyone had written off Ashley as a contender nationally, let alone internationally. She made a gutsy move, worked hard and came back strong. 2013 Worlds is actually the only competition since 2012 Nationals that she didn't bring home some medal (if you count 2012 Worlds FS bronze medal), and a lot of those medals have been gold.
Saying she's close (top 5 two years in a row) but will never be close enough sounds wrong. She's got such a ton of drive and competitive fire that she could surprise us yet. A new season is a new season and she might not use the same strategy she did for this season (playing it safe). After 'Black Swan' I wondered if she was going to be able to come up with an equally good program - she delivered something much, much better. So. No writing off Ashley. (what else did you expect from me
)To answer the question: what does Ashley need? Equally good programs as this season and a solid strategy!
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- Nov 10, 2009
Gracie could become the 'Mirai Nagasu' of the 2014 Olympics, assuming the podium is 'a lock' again, with Yu Na/Mao/Carolina.
Ashley has actually beaten Mao several times before, and will have another shot at doing so at WTT. I'm definitely not counting her out despite the lack of triple-triple combinations. As Kurt Browning said during the Worlds FS: she actually has pretty good technique now (incredible compared to her jumps between 2008-2011) They are solid now, usually nice and rotated (except the 3T as a second jump) and she doesn't two-foot (or if she does it's barely visible compared to glaring two-footed landings earlier in her career). There was a time in 2011 that everyone had written off Ashley as a contender nationally, let alone internationally. She made a gutsy move, worked hard and came back strong. 2013 Worlds is actually the only competition since 2012 Nationals that she didn't bring home some medal (if you count 2012 Worlds FS bronze medal), and a lot of those medals have been gold.
Saying she's close (top 5 two years in a row) but will never be close enough sounds wrong. She's got such a ton of drive and competitive fire that she could surprise us yet. A new season is a new season and she might not use the same strategy she did for this season (playing it safe). After 'Black Swan' I wondered if she was going to be able to come up with an equally good program - she delivered something much, much better. So. No writing off Ashley. (what else did you expect from me
To answer the question: what does Ashley need? Equally good programs as this season and a solid strategy!
Sadly, that's not saying much. Miki, CaroK and Yuna all sat out GP series this year. She got 2 golds from international comps b/c she wasn't going against the top dogs.
Look at her competition at GP
Skate America: Christina, Adelina, Valentina Marchei, Haruka, Mae, Alena (Leonova), Viktoria, Rachael and Sarah Hecken.
TEB: Liza, Julia, Christina, Mae, Polina, Jelena, Jenna, Joshi, Lena
If Ashley hadn't managed to beat them, I would've been shocked.
GPF -- she lost to Mao and barely beat Akiko. Not the best showing.
No 4CC.
Nats - victory, though lost FS to Gracie. She beat Gracie by 2 pts, even though Grace was only 9th after the short. I actually expected Ashley to beat Gracie by a lot more points than that.
WC - no medal with Yuna, CaroK, Mao all competing. Lost to Kanako as well.
This is why some people feel skeptical. Ashley played safe against a very weak field and it worked because her competitors weren't that great. But when she does the same at the bigger comps, it's a no go. I'm not sure if she has the enough confidence and technical competence to throw down big tricks.
I think Miki's expected to make a comeback next season. That means another top jumper thrown into the mix. Though I don't always care for Miki's style of skating, she is a much better jumper than Ashley.
And its champ ending up as another "Mirai Nagasu" is a poor prize for the US...
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- Oct 22, 2005
Ashley also had a major injury at the GPF and food poisoning (salmonella?) right before Nationals. Both of these things take their toll on your body and your training time. I suspect once those two things happened (hip pointer = off the ice for ~2 weeks and even if you ARE on the ice, no jumping, salmonella = no endurance/stamina, a lot of physical weakness to rebuild from), Wagner's strategy for Nationals, 4CC (not going), and Worlds changed due to the lost training time for the elements she wanted to include (I think if she'd been training healthy all the way up to Nationals there was a good possibility of seeing the 3+3 attempted there or at least the 2A+3T). I give her the benefit of the doubt as usually when she talks a big game (which she had been leading into the GPF about adding in difficulty) she backs it up with at minimum attempted action (excellent LP after a crap short at Nationals a couple times, move to John Nicks, winning Nationals) because she seems to want it so badly. After WTT, she has the opportunity to choose new programs and start working those difficult elements into her programs.
As for Gracie, I suspect we're going to see something different choreographically. What it is yet, I don't know...
As for Gracie, I suspect we're going to see something different choreographically. What it is yet, I don't know...
I said Gracie needed much better programs and more polishing seconds after I saw her in San Jose over a year ago. Potential is there.
She needs a dedicated coach/choreographer like Moskvina who tweaks and tweaks and tweaks until she can be perfect to maybe get a medal next year.
Ashley does not have a shot. She already got the 4th highest PCS. The problem is her TES, not PCS. She picked the right programs this year, and still couldn't do it. I don't think her PCS will be 4th next year with Adelina skating in Sochi and with Kanako on the rise. If Miki comes back, that's another PCS drop for Ashley.
Let's face it, Ashley just wants to go to the Olympics and collects Ralph Lauren goodies. The US fed should focus more on Gracie at this point. Find her the right choreographer. Is it that hard?
Someone with eyes should approve the choreography before giving it to her.
She needs a dedicated coach/choreographer like Moskvina who tweaks and tweaks and tweaks until she can be perfect to maybe get a medal next year.
Ashley does not have a shot. She already got the 4th highest PCS. The problem is her TES, not PCS. She picked the right programs this year, and still couldn't do it. I don't think her PCS will be 4th next year with Adelina skating in Sochi and with Kanako on the rise. If Miki comes back, that's another PCS drop for Ashley.
Let's face it, Ashley just wants to go to the Olympics and collects Ralph Lauren goodies. The US fed should focus more on Gracie at this point. Find her the right choreographer. Is it that hard?
Someone with eyes should approve the choreography before giving it to her.
- Joined
- Nov 10, 2009
This. Gracie really needs somebody who can package her correctly. She's got a lot of potential, and she can do it in 2018.
Ashley's over. I don't see her competing in Oly in 2018.
- Joined
- Aug 21, 2012
I don't think that Ashley is "done," nor am I ruling out the chance that she'll place ahead of Gracie at the Olympics.
Remember that, at Worlds, Ashley lacked a clean 2A-3T or 3-3, fell during her step sequence, and was still within 2 points of Gracie's FS score (and placed ahead of her overall by 3 points). Gracie has the potential to challenge for World medals if she gets better choreography and interpretation, but as of now, she's still the second US lady.
Remember that, at Worlds, Ashley lacked a clean 2A-3T or 3-3, fell during her step sequence, and was still within 2 points of Gracie's FS score (and placed ahead of her overall by 3 points). Gracie has the potential to challenge for World medals if she gets better choreography and interpretation, but as of now, she's still the second US lady.
- Joined
- Dec 29, 2011
ForeverFish said:
Of course Ashley might place ahead of Gracie, but I don't think anyone here wanted to guarantee the opposite. It's about who has better chances to medal.
For now, Ashley doesn't seem to have much potential to keep getting better till next season. 3-3? 2A-3T? Why should anyone give her the benefit of the doubt she'll go for them next season, when she didn't do so this season? Last year, she really was gutsy - just won Nats to go on and up the technical ante right at 4CC. And it paid off! This season it was a continued 'smart strategy' game and never got her anywhere. And her PCS are quite high already, that's the major reason why she was quite close to Gracie even in the FS. But I doubt her PCS can improve that much more, especially not enough to challenge the 'Top 3'. Nobody will beat the 'Top 3' in PCS so easily, you need to beat them in TES. And while Ash is pretty consistent and her elemts have nice quality, she seems to be a little stuck on her current level.
Gracie is quite the opposite. She's more likely than Ashley to have a meltdown, but she does have better scoring potential (and I'd say already). Ashley might have fallen on her steps, but how many points did that cost her? She still got 1.96 points for it. Even with steps lv.4 and +GOE that's maybe a 3-4 points lose. Now look at Gracies TES - everything more or less landed, but some of those jumps were shaky. Given how amazing her jumps are when landed perfectly, Gracie did lose a significant amount of points in +GOE. That's why I'd say clean Gracie would have beat clean Ashley too. And Gracie is still younger, doesn't have as much experience, and has quite bad choreography. She has more room to improve than Ashley. Hence, Gracie seems to be the one more likely to medal. She might as well have a lot of problems or trouble with all of the pressure, so she might aswell place below Ashley, that's true. But I'd rather see her improve and skate up to her potential.
- Joined
- Aug 27, 2003
Off topic, I know, but I saw this link on IceNetwork's Twitter feed: http://instagram.com/p/XbRWXNm8Kh/.
Are Ashley & Jeremy dating?? Or just friends?
Are Ashley & Jeremy dating?? Or just friends?
- Joined
- Jun 16, 2010
No question Gold is the one with more capacity to grow and more potential. That is essentialy what everyone is saying and they are right. I agree with Flattfan, the USFSA will pour most of its energy into Gold from here. She already has the technical ability to compete with anyone, and if her consistency and choreography improve then watch at. Wagner can still improve, but will have to work harder to find ways to improve.
Thanks for the
- Joined
- Jun 16, 2010
I thought Jeremy was dating Massimo Scali at one point.
- Joined
- Feb 17, 2010
Saying she's close (top 5 two years in a row) but will never be close enough sounds wrong. She's got such a ton of drive and competitive fire that she could surprise us yet. A new season is a new season and she might not use the same strategy she did for this season (playing it safe). After 'Black Swan' I wondered if she was going to be able to come up with an equally good program - she delivered something much, much better. So. No writing off Ashley. (what else did you expect from me
To answer the question: what does Ashley need? Equally good programs as this season and a solid strategy!
I like Ashley but I think 4th is an absolute best-case scenario in Sochi. Her 5th place finish depended on a lot of skaters behind her making major mistakes in the SP and/or LP. The Russians, Gracie, Kaetlyn, the Japanese and a few others have a higher BV in the jumps and can get close enough to Ashley on PCS to pass her on TES. All those skaters would have to skate poorly AND one of the top 3 would have to bomb for Ashley to medal.
Overall, I was disappointed with Ashley this year. Coming into the season, I was very excited because she made a lot of breakthroughs last year and I loved her Black Swan LP. I felt throughout the fall she skated safe, not only in the difficulty in the jumps but also the look of concentration she had going into each element in her programs. She doesn't skate with the freedom we see from the top 3 women and did nothing to upgrade her jump content from last year, whereas Mao tried the 3A more regularly and Carolina added a 3Z to her programs. Her plan for the year was to skate clean, safer programs and win her GP events, which is something she might want to rethink for next season if she hopes to try out more difficult combinations to prepare for the Olympics.
- Joined
- Jun 16, 2010
Is Kaetlyn's LP BV higher than Ashley? I knew the Russians and Gold's were, and Li's based on her Worlds LP, but I had no idea Osmond had a higher BV. If so that is further bad news for her as Osmond can easily match her on GOE and PCS as well, so once she gets more experience she will likely start regularly beating Wagner if she doesnt up her game as well.
Ashley obviously needs to do a 3-3 combination. If not, she's toast. So, seeing how she can't even land a 2A-3T, she's toast. As for Gracie...um how about choosing music that is dramatic and soaring and having some choreography that is complicated and edgy? Her Life is Beautiful program has the necessary jumping passes but it fails as a thematically mature program in all sorts of ways.
- Joined
- Aug 27, 2003
I think Ashley should start by going for the 3-3 in the short and 2A-3T in the long at WTT. Just commit to doing it. It's a relatively low-pressure competition, so she really has nothing to lose, and it's a good chance to start getting more mileage on those combinations.
This year for Ashley was all about maintaining and getting more confidence in her skating. She played it safe early in the season to build confidence, and I don't think that was a bad thing. The problem was, she couldn't build on it and get stronger later on due to the hip pointer, food poisoning, etc. The Ashley we saw at the end of the season was not the same Ashley we saw in the fall. She can skate much better than she did at Worlds. Now, can she skate well enough to beat Yuna, Carolina, and Mao when they're in top shape? That's obviously a very tall order. I don't know. But she does have a shot, a chance, at breaking into the medals in Sochi if all the stars come in alignment. There's no reason to think she's done or over. I for one liked Ashley's programs this year, especially the LP. I don't think her choreography is a serious issue. But I do agree with the poster who said that Ashley needs to skate with more freedom. Right now, you can tell she's just concentrating so intensely on every element. It detracts a little from the flow and mood. Also, work on the speed of her spins, they could be a little faster.
As to Gracie, I agree with everyone she needs much better programs and choreography next year. I think she also needs steady and consistent coaching in how to perform the program--just little details like hitting the right accents in the music, holding her arms/head at the correct angle, understanding the phrasing of the music--that kind of thing. My worry is, I don't know if her coach is good at this. If he's mainly a technical coach, he may not be very helpful. She may need to pull in other coaches. I think she spent time before Worlds training in Detroit with Zoueva, and I definitely noticed an improvement in her performance at Worlds. In her Worlds LP, I felt for the first time that she was catching some of the buoyant, whimsical character of the music. Selecting the right music for next year is going to be very, very important. It's tricky. She is too young to interpret anything too dramatic or complex. But I also don't see her doing anything soft or girly (like Kanako's short). I hope she can find just the right thing. Gracie, like Ashley, does have an outside chance at medaling this year. Much will depend on her packaging and progress over the summer.
This year for Ashley was all about maintaining and getting more confidence in her skating. She played it safe early in the season to build confidence, and I don't think that was a bad thing. The problem was, she couldn't build on it and get stronger later on due to the hip pointer, food poisoning, etc. The Ashley we saw at the end of the season was not the same Ashley we saw in the fall. She can skate much better than she did at Worlds. Now, can she skate well enough to beat Yuna, Carolina, and Mao when they're in top shape? That's obviously a very tall order. I don't know. But she does have a shot, a chance, at breaking into the medals in Sochi if all the stars come in alignment. There's no reason to think she's done or over. I for one liked Ashley's programs this year, especially the LP. I don't think her choreography is a serious issue. But I do agree with the poster who said that Ashley needs to skate with more freedom. Right now, you can tell she's just concentrating so intensely on every element. It detracts a little from the flow and mood. Also, work on the speed of her spins, they could be a little faster.
As to Gracie, I agree with everyone she needs much better programs and choreography next year. I think she also needs steady and consistent coaching in how to perform the program--just little details like hitting the right accents in the music, holding her arms/head at the correct angle, understanding the phrasing of the music--that kind of thing. My worry is, I don't know if her coach is good at this. If he's mainly a technical coach, he may not be very helpful. She may need to pull in other coaches. I think she spent time before Worlds training in Detroit with Zoueva, and I definitely noticed an improvement in her performance at Worlds. In her Worlds LP, I felt for the first time that she was catching some of the buoyant, whimsical character of the music. Selecting the right music for next year is going to be very, very important. It's tricky. She is too young to interpret anything too dramatic or complex. But I also don't see her doing anything soft or girly (like Kanako's short). I hope she can find just the right thing. Gracie, like Ashley, does have an outside chance at medaling this year. Much will depend on her packaging and progress over the summer.
- Joined
- Feb 17, 2010
I noticed an improvement too, but I definitely think she could be more womanly next year. Remember, next year she will be older than Lyra Angelica Michelle, so the age isn't as much of an issue as being able to convey a more mature presence. Since she can already do a 3 triple SP and a 7 triple LP she can really focus on improving her artistry and just maintaining her already great jumps.
- Joined
- Mar 7, 2011
What does it take to medal?
Mao and Carolina will have to bomb. Yuna will never bomb, so you can just forget about that idea.
