Off-Season Debate, Question 1: Can Kimmie Keep Up The Momentum?

R.D. · Mar 30, 2006

Now that Kimmie has won the world title, she will suddenly have pressure on her that she hasn't had before. And THAT, folks, will be the real test. This is purely a speculation thread:

She had the performance of her life in Calgary (in case you didn't know :laugh:

) But do you think she can keep it up?

Does she really have to worry about the Japanese and other Asians supposedly making a threat?

Can she win the US title next year?

Can she successfully defend her World Championship in 07?

Is she going to be a one-hit wonder?

MY THOUGHTS

It's too soon to tell, but fun to speculate. Personally, I don't like her skating enough to become a fan of hers, but she seems like a nice kid. But that aside, I think she has a lot of potential. The Technical Elements are certainly there. Now, she just needs some PERSONALITY. If she can develop that, she will be a true force to be reckoned with. I figure she just got lucky in Calgary since those supposedly "better" than her couldn't deliver that night. But she went all out and deserved that win. Now, she seems pretty consistent and I think if she can continue to grow and develop, there could be several US titles and maybe even another world title in her future. She could be a top contender for Vancouver.

Or, is she simply a one-hit wonder and maybe will just either fizzle next year, or get injured or something? Will she fade next year and bounce back in 08, ala Shizuka or Irina? Let the talk begin...

attyfan · Mar 30, 2006

I think that the fact that Worlds are in Japan next year will be a big factor -- the Japanese do have a strong team, and I doubt that all three ladies will come down with a bad case of Stojko-itis (an inability to skate well when Worlds are in one's home country). So, I don't think she will defend her title, even if she skates well. She may be able to win Nats, though, if she doesn't go through a lot of physical changes that throw off her jumps.

What will happen after next season is too hard to predict -- with physical changes, the risk of injury, etc., being such a big factor IMO. If there aren't any injuries, I think she can reinvent herself and stay competitive at leat until 2010. I do not see anyone, ever again, winning 9 US titles, simply because I don't see anyone lasting that long.

paralegalmkfan · Mar 30, 2006

attyfan said:
I think that the fact that Worlds are in Japan next year will be a big factor -- the Japanese do have a strong team, and I doubt that all three ladies will come down with a bad case of Stojko-itis (an inability to skate well when Worlds are in one's home country). So, I don't think she will defend her title, even if she skates well. She may be able to win Nats, though, if she doesn't go through a lot of physical changes that throw off her jumps.

What will happen after next season is too hard to predict -- with physical changes, the risk of injury, etc., being such a big factor IMO. If there aren't any injuries, I think she can reinvent herself and stay competitive at leat until 2010. I do not see anyone, ever again, winning 9 US titles, simply because I don't see anyone lasting that long.

I don't think it will be as easy for her next year. She not only has formidable competition with the Japanese skaters and the gal from South Korea, but there are some skaters right here in the good old USA that could give her stiff competition.

I think Katy Taylor will give her a good run for her money, and you can bet your sweet bippy that Emily will be turning it up a notch or two as well. I think all of the U.S. girls are going to be hungry. Plus you have the Michelle/Sasha factor. Will they or will they not be competing next year. Personally, I think their days are numbered, which is not necessarily a bad thing.

I also personally believe that COP will hinder any longevity in the sport. Look how many injuries there have been since its inception.

I like Kimmie's personality she's a very good technical skater. But it's too soon to tell how things will pan out for her. But if you go by the media, she's the best thing to ever put on a pair of skates for the U.S. We'll see.

MKFSfan · Mar 30, 2006

I agree with both of your posts. I think it's too early to tell where Kimmie is headed. Back in 1996, when Michelle won her 1st World title, she did it with such an exclaimation point. She had all the pressure on her that Kimmie did not have-both from hype and from being the US National Champion. She beat the reigning world champ, who was clean and received 6.0's. There was no doubt Michelle was going to be a force for the next few years. It's hard to guage by one competition, since anyone can rise to the occasion and win, sometimes.

IMO, Kimmie has more work cut out for her than Michelle did following their 1st World wins. Even though Michelle had an off year the following season, Taj Mahl and Dream of Desdoman were great, artistically and technically challenged pieces. She won both her GP events and was won the LP at Worlds 1997. My point being, 1995-96 was Michelle's break out year, and she continued to build on that. Kimmie should only get better, too. She improved tremendously since Nats. '05 in her presentation skills and we know she has the technique, skating skills to back her up.

That being said, Kimmie does have quite a few challengers coming up along with her. Elene, Yu-Na, Mao and Katy figure to be in the picture. Yukari and Joannie aren't going anywhere. Add in the possibility of Michelle, Irina, Shizuka, Fumie and Sasha remaining eligible and we have quite a season to look forward to! I think if Kimmie's team can figure out a way to up her PCS marks, she will be amongst the top of these skaters. She has the mental ability and the competitive mind-set to know to "bring it". It's going to be an exciting next 4 years!

I also personally believe that COP will hinder any longevity in the sport. Look how many injuries there have been since its inception. ~paralegalmkfan

SOOO very true. I agree with this 100%. Gone are the years that a skater will dominate the scene like Michelle and Irina have. I think we'll see a lot of competitions flip-flop between skaters depending upon who is healthy.

Joesitz (RIP) · Mar 30, 2006

I don't think there is a momentum yet. She won a best on one of those Nights. Let's check her out in Marshalls, and the more important GPs. If there is momentum there, it will show her on the podium of the GPs.

Joe

eliza88 · Mar 30, 2006

I don't know if Kimmie will be a one-hit wonder or not, I do feel strongly that if she stays healthy she will be a strong competitor and a podium threat at many events. This gal has a good head on her shoulders and all reports suggest she is a joy to work with...a very healthy combination! If Michelle and Sasha stay eligible Kimmie might improve faster on the artistic side. I find Kimmie pleasant to watch...I am not on pins and needles every time she is about to jump (kind of comforting, actually!).

I don't think Kimmie will be content being just a jumping bean...did you see her face as she watched the programs at the Olympics? She is hungry! I don't think winning one World title will satisfy her! She is building for Vancouver and wants that top step!

I too hope she will find that individual style...can't wait for next season!

eliza88

leon · Mar 30, 2006

Nationally Kimmie is is definitely "The" force to be reckoned with.
"one hit wonder"?? -- 2003 Novice National Champion. 2004 Junior National Champion. 2005 Senior National Bronze medalist. 2006 Senior National Silver medalist and Senior World Champion. I see a lots of hits. She is used to winning and expects to win. Solid steady progress throughout this past season. Historically she has been rock solid consistent. She had some butterflies early this year and maybe a little too much scrutiny from the media for a 16 year old to easily digest --- although she has handled it marvelously.
At sixteen I think Kimmie is pretty much fully grown. Kimmie would have to be the favorite in any US competition even if Sasha and Michelle both continue to compete. Michelle will be rusty will have lots of technical ground to make up. And Sasha, while having the best and most complete and beautiful package, always seems to lose it in the mail.
Kimmie is for sure a work in progress. She's shown extraordiny ability to learn, improve and toss out things that don't work. She'll have more resources to help in her presentation package and to continue to hone her technical skills.

Yu-Na Kim and Mao Asada look to be the clear favorites internationally. I don't see any top skaters who seem capable of consistently outscoring these two ladies. They are a year younger than Kimmie and might have more physical changes to face than Kimmie. But they'll have to stay healthy and show up to play tough because Kimmie can deliver everything she's got on a very consistent basis.

Kimmie will continually improve, of that I'm certain. If anyone will be able to challege these two asian ladies, it will be Kimmie. I don't see Irina, Fumie or Shizuka as the ones to reign in these kids . . . I think the kids will own the ice this coming season.

rob43 · Mar 30, 2006

If Michelle or Sasha skate clean I still think they beat a clean Kimmie (for now). So they need to bring their 'A' game if they show up to '07 Nationals. But I will never bet against Kwan at Nationals.

Internationally, I think Asada is still probably #1. And I think Rochette will give her a run for her money. A clean Costner (which is not seeming so likely) could also be a bull in hte china shop.

I'll wait a year or two to see how it all settles but I think Kimmie should be competitive for the next quad but not necessarily the leader. We really haven't seen a wire to wire leader for a quad since Fleming and I doubt we will now.

Sk8harvest · Mar 30, 2006

leon said:
Nationally Kimmie is is definitely "The" force to be reckoned with.
"one hit wonder"?? -- 2003 Novice National Champion. 2004 Junior National Champion. 2005 Senior National Bronze medalist. 2006 Senior National Silver medalist and Senior World Champion. I see a lots of hits.

And don't forget, 2004 Junior World Silver medalist.

R.D. · Mar 30, 2006

to clarify- what I mean by "one hit wonder" is in SENIOR competition only.

Lonewolf · Mar 31, 2006

I think it is too early to tell if Kimmie is for real. Next year will be a much more challenging year for her depending on her competition. By this time next year, I think we will have a better picture of Kimmie and her future. One thing I do know for sure is what MKFSfan stated, “It's going to be an exciting next 4 years!”

leon · Mar 31, 2006

Red Dog said:
to clarify- what I mean by "one hit wonder" is in SENIOR competition only.

She's finished on the podium at her first 2 Nationals and of course won senior Worlds on her first try. I think past performance is the best indicator of future success and Kimmie's consistent winning ways during her entire career is relevant if this question is implying her placements at her only 2 Senior Nationals and first Worlds are flukes.

rob43 said:
If Michelle or Sasha skate clean I still think they beat a clean Kimmie (for now).

I think a clean Sasha beats anyone today, including a clean Michelle. A clean Sasha is, however, an imaginary skate we are unlikely to see in whatever remains of her competitive career. If Michelle laces up this fall it will be after nearly 20 months without a credible competitive skate. While my heart might tell me team Kwan can win a 10th National crown against the battle hardened, COP savy teams to be arrayed against her next year, my reason tells me it will not happen. Kimmie's National's competitiors will be the same ladies she has been defeating on the ice consistently her entire career -- Katy, Alissa, Emily, Bebe, Christine Z and others. US skating is very deep and I don't necessarily see Kimmie outscoring all the US ladies at every skate but I do think she'll be the favorite among the Americans in every competition she enters next season.

R.D. · Mar 31, 2006

She's finished on the podium at her first 2 Nationals and of course won senior Worlds on her first try. I think past performance is the best indicator of future success and Kimmie's consistent winning ways during her entire career is relevant if this question is implying her placements at her only 2 Senior Nationals and first Worlds are flukes.

Well, I guess we'll find out, right?

No one can know at this point except for the Skate Gods which sit back and determine how everyone will skate from season to season (and the judges judge them accordingly).

But may I point out- this is not a Sasha thread, nor is it a Michelle thread. It's a Kimmie thread...unless it's ABSOLUTELY necessary to bring MK or SC up to make comparisons let's try and leave them out of this thread...JMO. There's enough discussion on them already...

R.D. · Mar 31, 2006

leon said:
Kimmie's National's competitiors will be the same ladies she has been defeating on the ice consistently her entire career -- Katy, Alissa, Emily, Bebe, Christine Z and others. US skating is very deep and I don't necessarily see Kimmie outscoring all the US ladies at every skate but I do think she'll be the favorite among the Americans in every competition she enters next season.

I think she might also get the benefit of the doubt (maybe a PCS score boost as well?) because she is the reigning World Champion. She will be THE SKATER for EVERYONE to beat next year due to that title. Everyone will want bragging rights, that's for sure. Let's see how she does as the chased, and not the chaser. I think the difference is that people keep saying that she's placed on the podium here and there. But she's always been the hungry one, the one looking for more. She's been figuring out a way to get to the top. Now that she's AT the top, the question is can she STAY there? I think the answer will be no, at least initially until she grows some more. Then I think she will be a contender once again. The Young Ones are the ones to look out for, though, and I think they will pose the biggest threat to Kimmie. The Veterans will either retire or go down- I think they've had it, IMO.

Doggygirl · Mar 31, 2006

PCS, Pee Schmee Sss. If she REALLY drives (or even has interest in the off season) in a '68 Charger, then she's got my vote. 3A (and 3/3 combos too) be danged.

Chicagoland Speedway and/or Route 66 Raceway, Here. We. Come!!

DG

jsteam4501s · Mar 31, 2006

Agreed, Red Dog, we don't need to mention other skaters here, and we ALSO can just shuck the ''one-hit wonder" business right out the window, because Kimmie's Senior resume is already chock-full. A lot of people may have been ready to write her off after she "failed" (note the quotation marks) to keep the "middle teen Gold" streak alive, but she blasted back full tilt at Worlds and proved that she is no longer "just knocking at the door" but is clearly "in the house"!!

Doggygirl · Mar 31, 2006

Red Dog said:
to clarify- what I mean by "one hit wonder" is in SENIOR competition only.

Why? I get the feeling that you only follow Senior Ladies. But if an up and comer like Kimmie (and others before her, and "during" her) has a winning track record prior to Seniors, but that's the first time YOU have seen that skater, how does that make said skater a "one hit wonder?"

You seem to have little interest in learning / hearing about up and coming skaters. By the time they hit Seniors, they are rarely if ever "one hit wonders." I really hope you will consider expanding your horizons - at least in ladies since that's the dicipline you seem to like best right now, but maybe consider Men's/Pairs/Dance. I really think you are missing a WHOLE lot of cool stuff going on more broadly - even just scratching the surface of the international competitors as a whole.

If there is a "one hit wonder" this year (barring injury or something strange) it's probably NOT a Jr. World's Medalist, a Sr. World's Medalist or an Oly Medalist. In terms of predictions, I think you might have to dig a bit deeper than those comps to find your single hitters - a single or team that placed amazingly higher than they are likely to ever place again.

DG

antmanb · Mar 31, 2006

Red Dog said:
Well, I guess we'll find out, right? No one can know at this point except for the Skate Gods which sit back and determine how everyone will skate from season to season (and the judges judge them accordingly).

But may I point out- this is not a Sasha thread, nor is it a Michelle thread. It's a Kimmie thread...unless it's ABSOLUTELY necessary to bring MK or SC up to make comparisons let's try and leave them out of this thread...JMO. There's enough discussion on them already...

Well You asked people how she will fair at nationals - how is anyone supposed to come up with thoughts on how she might do if two of her potential competitiors can't be discussed?!

Ant

R.D. · Mar 31, 2006

antmanb said:
Well You asked people how she will fair at nationals - how is anyone supposed to come up with thoughts on how she might do if two of her potential competitiors can't be discussed?!

I said only if it's ABSOLUTELY necessary to bring up other skaters to do so. If one needs to compare her (Kimmie) to other skaters coming up at Nats, that's fine- but only for comparison reasons. If you really wanted to discuss those skaters, you'd be posting in another thread anyway.

DG- yes I follow only senior ladies. But here's my question: Suppose after winning a bunch of lower-level titles/medals, a skater comes up, does really well at one international comp (senior), and then is practically never heard from again? Is that skater a "one-hit-wonder" or not? I simply wondered if Kimmie would end up that way after next year. Maybe junior and novice success is a sign of good things to come for Kimmie, but we just can't know yet.

So that's what I really mean. Maybe I should have asked if she would end up a flash-in-the-pan (like Alissa C. was) instead of using the "one-hit-wonder" phrase. :scratch:

R.D. · Mar 31, 2006

DG- I suppose your passion is the difference between a die-hard FS fan and a casual fan like myself...

Off-Season Debate, Question 1: Can Kimmie Keep Up The Momentum?

R.D.

attyfan

Custom Title

paralegalmkfan

MKFSfan

Joesitz (RIP)

eliza88

leon

rob43

Sk8harvest

R.D.

Lonewolf

leon

R.D.

R.D.

Doggygirl

jsteam4501s

Doggygirl

antmanb

R.D.

R.D.

Similar threads

Connect with us