State of US Ladies in skating III: 2014-15 Season

This thread is giving me so much life

P.S. I'm ready to bet my money that Gracie will lost her #1US status this season or next one at max.

Agree US women are missing something, not sure what's wrong. I don't sense in them a deep connection to the art or skating. They can do tricks and someone can choreograph them to squeeze some extra points. Do they have an agenda for their own development? What are they trying to accomplish with their skating - besides winning?

One thing I do know is they spend too much time in front of cameras talking about themselves. Evelyn Ashford, the great US sprinter, said she rarely gave interviews because it took energy away from her running. She put eerything she had into training and the track. Gracie and Ashley seem caught up in being famous - and, I'm sure the money is alluring.

tulosai said:

Depending on what one means, it very much can be and is accurate. I am not making any claim that Ashley will 'never' beat any skater nor am I claiming Carolina had consistency in her career. But even if Carolina had also never medaled at Worlds I would still say Ashley's not in the same class her. Simply put, Carolina Kostner has among the best skating skills of all time. The quality of her edges, in particular, are truly awe-inspiring, as is her speed across the ice. Her artistry and connection to her music were also, at least in certain performances, at the very top of the top of what can be done. And I'm not really a Carolina uber, either- I view these things as objectively true, at least the bit about the skating skills. Carolina's jumps are also much bigger and stronger than Ashley's. She can fully rotate a triple triple 90+% of the time and she rarely if ever two footed her landings, something Ashley still does with alarming regularity.

With that said, in terms of their competitive records, they're not in the same class either, at least not yet. Consistent or not, Carolina has medaled at Euros every year since 2005, including 5 gold medals. She's medaled at Worlds 6 times. She's medaled at the GPF 4 times.

Even accounting for the fact that Ashley has had a shorter career than Carolina, her record doesn't even approach this. She's medaled at the GPF twice and won Four Continents once. That's 'it' in terms of major medals.

So right now, no, I don't think they are in the same class, and I don't see any point in pretending they are. Liking Ashley won't make them so.

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Carolina has had far more great skates and appears to have more talent - style, lines and such she also has to be one of the most gifted skaters or luckiest in respect to medals = she has won a lot of "lucky" or controversial medals unlike Ashley.

Ashley has always been a second tier skater. Average spins, average skills, below average jumps with above average expectation and push. It would take a miracle for her to stand atop of any podium.
Miki never got that kind of push/PCS rise that Ashley got and Miki had what it take to put pressure on any girl. Imagine if Miki was skating for the US in 2012, 2013, she would be on the podium both times.
It is over for her in term of expecting success in skating. She can continue to skate as long as she wants, but that podium is out of reach forever.

Unlike Wagner, Kostner's good SS gave her huge PCS which saved her time and again from bad performances. For instance, she got a bronze in the Sataima Worlds, even though she bombed the FS. She should have finished no higher than 6th. Wagner would never get breaks like that internationally, except maybe in 2012.

To get away from the Ashley discussion for a moment, I haven't seen much talk of Samantha Cesario as a contender this year. Sam was 5th at Nationals, and I hear she is upping her technical content this season. I am disappointed to hear she is still doing "Carmen" for her FS, but is reworking it. At least she's not doing another POTO!

Like Ashley, she sells her programs and is one of the "older" ladies at 21.

As a fellow Long Island girl, I want to support her and make sure she's not forgotten.

http://web.icenetwork.com/news/2014/09/16/94926942/cesario-still-fighting-to-prove-she-belongs

apgold said:

To get away from the Ashley discussion for a moment, I haven't seen much talk of Samantha Cesario as a contender this year. Sam was 5th at Nationals, and I hear she is upping her technical content this season. I am disappointed to hear she is still doing "Carmen" for her FS, but is reworking it. At least she's not doing another POTO!

Like Ashley, she sells her programs and is one of the "older" ladies at 21.

As a fellow Long Island girl, I want to support her and make sure she's not forgotten.

http://web.icenetwork.com/news/2014/09/16/94926942/cesario-still-fighting-to-prove-she-belongs

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I really like Samantha's skating. I'm not Long Island, but east coast close by in my childhood. I always liked the NY/NJ skaters. Elaine Zayak was a hero in NJ and probably still is. I hope Samantha ups her skills, stops the 3L/3L and really does well this season.

apgold said:

To get away from the Ashley discussion for a moment, I haven't seen much talk of Samantha Cesario as a contender this year. Sam was 5th at Nationals, and I hear she is upping her technical content this season. I am disappointed to hear she is still doing "Carmen" for her FS, but is reworking it. At least she's not doing another POTO!

Like Ashley, she sells her programs and is one of the "older" ladies at 21.

As a fellow Long Island girl, I want to support her and make sure she's not forgotten.

http://web.icenetwork.com/news/2014/09/16/94926942/cesario-still-fighting-to-prove-she-belongs

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Samantha is one of my favorites. Her FS was my favorite of anyone's last year and I think she is an incredible performer. I don't think her chances are all that great in terms of winning but, based her on good debut on the GP last year (5th and 4th place finishes), I think she could possibly sneak onto a podium if she continues to skate strongly. She's not that great in terms of jumps, spins, etc. BUT she is pretty consistent and (eventually) that tends to pay off.

I'm cool with her keeping her Carmen FS. She said they're going to tweak it a bit so at least it won't be a carbon copy of last year's program (*cough* Gracie *cough'*). I love Sammi and I wish her all the best. Gorgeous girl, amazing performer...I love her.

kwanatic said:

Samantha is one of my favorites. Her FS was my favorite of anyone's last year and I think she is an incredible performer. I don't think her chances are all that great in terms of winning but, based her on good debut on the GP last year (5th and 4th place finishes), I think she could possibly sneak onto a podium if she continues to skate strongly. She's not that great in terms of jumps, spins, etc. BUT she is pretty consistent and (eventually) that tends to pay off.

I'm cool with her keeping her Carmen FS. She said they're going to tweak it a bit so at least it won't be a carbon copy of last year's program (*cough* Gracie *cough'*). I love Sammi and I wish her all the best. Gorgeous girl, amazing performer...I love her.

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Why the shot at Gracie? Her SP was only skated for half a season so i can see why she kept it for another season. At least she isn't skating to the same piece of music for like 4 years in a row like Cesario is.

FlattFan said:

Ashley has always been a second tier skater. Average spins, average skills, below average jumps with above average expectation and push. It would take a miracle for her to stand atop of any podium.
Miki never got that kind of push/PCS rise that Ashley got and Miki had what it take to put pressure on any girl. Imagine if Miki was skating for the US in 2012, 2013, she would be on the podium both times.
It is over for her in term of expecting success in skating. She can continue to skate as long as she wants, but that podium is out of reach forever.

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Wow ! I am really surprised to hear any skating fan make that kind of statement. Out of reach forever.... Moving on, I really hope that Angela Wang makes a breakthrough this season. She has so much ability and I'd love to see her succeed.

Ashley's star may be fading but sweeping statements like "out of reach forever" tend to be a bit dangerous. In the words of another fairly well-known athlete , "It ain't over 'til it's over."

I unfortunately don't see Ashley medaling at Worlds either. Carolina was a late bloomer, as was Maria B, but both would have been competitive at a younger age had they not fallen so much. Ashley generally skates well at the big events but is lacking in several areas when compared to the best skaters.

mrrice said:

Wow ! I am really surprised to hear any skating fan make that kind of statement. Out of reach forever.... Moving on, I really hope that Angela Wang makes a breakthrough this season. She has so much ability and I'd love to see her succeed.

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I agree. And I'm sure Ashley sees what's going on around her with the Russians coming on so strong. She may have simply adjusted her goals and be setting her sights on regaining her national title and simply having good skates on the grand prix and at worlds.

Exactly ! Do I think Ashley will win Worlds ? No, but I can see her on the podium at Nationals again and for most skaters, that's a great season. It also keeps her name in the game for shows and sponsors. In the US with Ashley's looks, she could do well commercially if she were to regain her Title.

Long shot, yes. Impossible, no. Just ask Alissa C.

Jammers said:

Why the shot at Gracie? Her SP was only skated for half a season so i can see why she kept it for another season. At least she isn't skating to the same piece of music for like 4 years in a row like Cesario is.

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I think she should have gone with a new SP. All of the other top competitors are bringing something new to the table for this year but Gracie is carrying over last year's program. She only used it for half of last season, true, but she skated it at all of the major events and, IMO, maxed her potential with it. It was a solid program for her but there's nothing else she can bring to it at this point. Since she kept it I thought they might add a little more to it choreography wise but, from the looks of it, it's the exact same program.

All eyes aren't on Samantha; she's not a top level competitor so I don't think her recycling of music is that bad especially if it's not the same choreography...though even if it is the exact same I wouldn't mind b/c that Carmen FS was AMAZEBALLS! Point is lots of people are looking at Gracie this year. Her SP is nice but I just thought it'd be better for Gracie to lead off this quad with something fresh and new rather than the same thing everyone has seen several times before. JMO.

I see nothing wrong with a Skater retaining and old program if they like it. Some of the best Skaters have done so including Kwan and Arakawa to name a few. I think a lot of you just enjoy picking apart every thing Gracie. I think she will have a hard time defending her title against Polina but I surely don't think she is a has been. Nor do I think Ashley is a has been although she is going to have to step it up against the likes of Gracie and Polina. About the time you count Ashley out she comes back and proves you wrong.

Cesario's Carmen is a program I look forward to seeing again.

I've updated the scores to include Karen Chen's latest JGP and Samantha Cesario at Finlandia Trophy.

Per my score tracker (top 5 scored 15-13-11-9-7 for overall score/SP/SP TES/ SP PCS/FS/ FS TES/ FS PCS)

Gracie Gold 89
Polina Edmunds 83
Courtney Hicks 67
Karen Chen 55
Hannah Miller 37
Samantha Cesario 23
Mirai Nagasu 22
Leah Keiser 9

Karen Chen's high score is due to her having a strong SP at both her events. In fact she has the highest TES in the SP currently. She may be a sleeper for the final group at Nationals, IMO.

Here's Samantha's Carmen FS at Finlandia. New dress, great new 3L-1L-3S combo and some new choreographic features: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TE2acIYuok4

****

Total scores
Gracie Gold 182.31 (Nebelhorn Trophy, 3rd)
Polina Edmunds: 176.35 (U.S. International Classic, 1st)
Courtney Hicks: 174.14 (U.S. International Classic, 2nd)
Hannah Miller: 170.26 (Lombardia Trophy, 2nd)
Karen Chen: 169.41 (JGP Croatia Cup, 2nd)
—
Karen Chen: 160.95 (JGP Czech Skate, 3rd)
Angela Wang: 160.25 (Lombardia Trophy, 3rd)
Mirai Nagasu: 159.59 (U.S. International Classic, 5th)
Samantha Cesario 159.40 (Finlandia Trophy, 3rd)
Leah Keiser: 149.24 (JGP Ljubljana Cupm 3rd)
Mariah Bell 148.48 (Nebelhorn Trophy, 5th)
Amber Glenn: 148.08 (JGP Courcheval, 3rd)
Ashley Cain: 142.95 (Ondrej Nepela Trophy, 3rd)
Amber Glenn: 142.83 (JGP Tallinn Cup, 6th)
Leah Keiser: 128.63 (JGP Pokal der Blauen Schwerter, 8th)
Ashley Shin: 125.42 (U.S. International Classic, 7th)

SP scores:
Polina Edmunds 63.27 (U.S. International Classic)
Karen Chen 62.71 (JGP Croatia Cup)
Gracie Gold 61.82 (Nebelhorn Trophy)
Karen Chen 60.68 (JGP Czech Skate)
Courtney Hicks 58.90 (U.S. International Classic)
—-
Mirai Nagasu 55.96 (U.S. International Classic)
Angela Wang 54.88 (Lombardia Trophy)
Amber Glenn 54.71 (JGP Courcheval)
Ashley Cain 54.05 (Ondrej Nepela Trophy)
Hannah Miller 51.43 (Lombardia Trophy)
Samantha Cesario 50.79 (Finlandia Trophy)
Mariah Bell 50.72 (Nebelhorn Trophy)
Amber Cain 49.66 (JGP Tallinn Cup)
Ashley Shin 49.83 (U.S. International Classic)
Leah Keiser 49.66 (JGP Pokal der Baluen Schwerter)
Leah Keiser 47.66 (JGP Ljubljana Cup)

TES:
Karen Chen 35.94 (JGP Croatia Cup)
Polina Edmunds 35.31
Karen Chen 34.31
Courtney Hicks 31.70
Gracie Gold 31.68
—-
Angela Wang 30.80
Amber Glenn 30.79
Ashley Cain 29.29
Mirai Nagasu 27.90
Hannah Miller 26.75
Leah Keiser 27.66
Mariah Bell 26.27
Leah Keiser 26.20
Ashley Shin 25.47
Amber Glenn 24.72 (JGP Tallinn Cup)
Samantha Cesario 23.95


PCS
Gracie Gold 31.66
Polina Edmunds 27.96
Mirai Nagasu 27.56
Courtney Hicks 27.20
Samantha Cesario 26.84
—-
Karen Chen 26.77 (JGP Croatia Cup)
Karen Chen 26.37
Ashley Cain 25.76
Hannah Miller 25.68
Amber Glenn 24.94 (JGP Tallinn Cup)
Amber Glenn 24.92
Mariah Bell 24.45
Ashley Shin 24.36
Angela Wang 24.08
Leah Keiser 23.00 (JGP Pokal der Blauen Schwerter)
Leah Keiser 22.46

FS scores:
Gracie Gold 120.49
Hannah Miller 118.83
Courtney Hicks 115.24
Polina Edmunds 113.08
Samantha Cesario 108.61
—-
Karen Chen 106.70
Angela Wang 105.37
Mirai Nagasu 104.03
Leah Keiser 101.58
Karen Chen 100.27
Mariah Bell 97.76
Amber Glenn 93.37
Amber Glenn 93.17
Ashley Cain 88.90
Leah Keiser 78.97 (JGP Poka der Blauen Schwerter)
Ashley Shin 75.59

TES:
Hannah Miller 64.59
Courtney Hicks 60.44
Gracie Gold 56.00
Leah Keiser 55.70
Polina Edmunds 54.64
—-
Karen Chen 53.88
Samantha Cesario 52.53
Angela Wang 52.21
Karen Chen 49.96
Mirai Nagasu 48.47
Amber Glenn 46.84
Mariah Bell 45.83
Amber Glenn 45.60
Ashley Cain 37.10
Ashley Shin 35.43
Leah Keiser 34.14 (JGP Pokal der Blauen Schwerter)


PCS
Gracie Gold 64.49
Polina Edmunds 59.44
Mirai Nagasu 56.56
Samantha Cesario 56.08
Courtney Hicks 54.80
—-
Hannah Miller 54.24
Angela Wang 54.16
Mariah Bell 53.93
Karen Chen 53.82 (JGP Croatia Cup)
Ashley Cain 52.80
Karen Chen 51.31
Amber Glenn 48.57 (JGP Tallinn Cup)
Amber Glenn 47.53
Leah Keiser 45.88
Leah Keiser 45.83 (JGP Poka der Blauen Schwerter)
Ashley Shin 42.16

Thanks for posting the scores Mrs. P. Do you keep a spreadsheet?

Loved seeing Samantha's free skate, and congrats to her for winning silver at Finlandia! I said yesterday she had the opportunity to move up to be on the podium and she didn't disappoint!

How does everyone think Polina Edmunds will do in the GP? She's got tough competition, up against Lipnitskaia in one and Sotnikova in another (not to mention others, Gracie, Elizaveta, Murakami, Sakoto...) I guess it'll be a big test to see how the judges compare her to the top skaters. I really want her to medal but she's facing tough competition, esp in NHK. I really like Polina's SP this season.

Also, does anyone know how Christina Gao is doing? I had sort of forgotten about her.