15 pairs have competed so far, and whether or not any serious contenders have been eliminated depends on how optimistic you were about Moore-Towers & Marinaro. So looking at the top four from Skates America & Canada:
Skate America:
1. Yuko Kavaguti & Alexander Smirnov: Need only medal in Japan, where's it's unlikely they won't, since unless they skate badly the only teams with a real chance of beating them are Meagan Duhamel & Eric Radford and Vera Bazarova & Andrei Deputat, and the latter have had their own issues on the challenger circuit. Hell, even if they do skate badly, I'm not sure they still wouldn't beat the other five pairs in this field; the only remote threat would be wild cards DeeDee Leng & Simon Shnapir. Really, I think the only thing they need to do to qualify is show up.
2. Haven Denney & Brandon Frazier: Need to win in Russia to seal it, which between Ksenia Stolbova & Fedor Klimov and the other two home teams assigned there looks unlikely. Two silvers ought to be enough in pairs, but wouldn't be easy either, but the other two Russian pairs are very beatable(they've already significantly outscored Evgenia Tarasova & Vladimir Morozov on the circuit), especially if they make the mistakes and Denney & Frazier don't, and they have an even better chance of besting at least one of them for the podium and then it's as the chips fall.
3. Cheng Peng & Hao Zhang: Would need to win China to seal it, but they're pretty strong favorites there. Heck, barring utter disaster, the only team I see as having a chance of beating them are the slow-starting Bazarova & Deputat, and even with silver they'd still hold onto that chance.
4. Alexa Scimeca & Christopher Knierim: To have a chance would need to win France, where it would be pretty tough for them to beat Stolbova & Klimov. Silver's actually not impossible, but even for that they might need help from a handful of teams.
Skate Canada:
1. Meagan Duhamel & Eric Radford: Need only medal in Japan, where they'll be favored to win, and even a bad skate(unless it was their worst ever) will probably still only put them behind Kavaguti & Smirnov or possible Bazarova & Deputat, so they too really only need to show up at this point.
2. Wenjing Sui & Cong Han: To seal it would need to win in France, which might actually happen, though they might need help from Stolbova & Klimov. Very good shot at silver so long as they skate well, which would make their chances very good indeed; though if they skate badly there is a chance they might slip behind one of Scimeca & Knierim, James & Cipres, or Moore-Towers & Marinaro, but even if they slip behind one of them, going behind even two of them and getting knocked off the podium and out of contention seems very unlikely.
3. Evgenia Tarasova & Vladimir Morozov: Would need to win Russia to seal it, where they'll likely be in the thick of it for silver and a chance against Denney & Frazier and possibly Vasilisa Davankova & Alexander Enbert.
4. Madeline Aaron & Max Settlage: Both events completed, with 5th at Skate America are way out of it.
Out of contention, but might be a factor at other events:
Vanessa James & Morgan Cipres: 5th at Skate Canada, the setup in France is such that they just might be a factor(or just win bronze)
Kirsten Moore-Towers & Michael Marinaro: 6th at Skate Canada, same deal
Vasilia Davankova & Alexander Enbert: Only assigned to Russia, something of a wild card there, may or may not be a factor
Contenders yet to skate:
Ksenia Stolbova & Fedor Klimov
Vera Bazarova & Andre Deputat(possibly)
Current Pairs Standings
http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2014/gpspairs.htm
Skate America:
1. Yuko Kavaguti & Alexander Smirnov: Need only medal in Japan, where's it's unlikely they won't, since unless they skate badly the only teams with a real chance of beating them are Meagan Duhamel & Eric Radford and Vera Bazarova & Andrei Deputat, and the latter have had their own issues on the challenger circuit. Hell, even if they do skate badly, I'm not sure they still wouldn't beat the other five pairs in this field; the only remote threat would be wild cards DeeDee Leng & Simon Shnapir. Really, I think the only thing they need to do to qualify is show up.
2. Haven Denney & Brandon Frazier: Need to win in Russia to seal it, which between Ksenia Stolbova & Fedor Klimov and the other two home teams assigned there looks unlikely. Two silvers ought to be enough in pairs, but wouldn't be easy either, but the other two Russian pairs are very beatable(they've already significantly outscored Evgenia Tarasova & Vladimir Morozov on the circuit), especially if they make the mistakes and Denney & Frazier don't, and they have an even better chance of besting at least one of them for the podium and then it's as the chips fall.
3. Cheng Peng & Hao Zhang: Would need to win China to seal it, but they're pretty strong favorites there. Heck, barring utter disaster, the only team I see as having a chance of beating them are the slow-starting Bazarova & Deputat, and even with silver they'd still hold onto that chance.
4. Alexa Scimeca & Christopher Knierim: To have a chance would need to win France, where it would be pretty tough for them to beat Stolbova & Klimov. Silver's actually not impossible, but even for that they might need help from a handful of teams.
Skate Canada:
1. Meagan Duhamel & Eric Radford: Need only medal in Japan, where they'll be favored to win, and even a bad skate(unless it was their worst ever) will probably still only put them behind Kavaguti & Smirnov or possible Bazarova & Deputat, so they too really only need to show up at this point.
2. Wenjing Sui & Cong Han: To seal it would need to win in France, which might actually happen, though they might need help from Stolbova & Klimov. Very good shot at silver so long as they skate well, which would make their chances very good indeed; though if they skate badly there is a chance they might slip behind one of Scimeca & Knierim, James & Cipres, or Moore-Towers & Marinaro, but even if they slip behind one of them, going behind even two of them and getting knocked off the podium and out of contention seems very unlikely.
3. Evgenia Tarasova & Vladimir Morozov: Would need to win Russia to seal it, where they'll likely be in the thick of it for silver and a chance against Denney & Frazier and possibly Vasilisa Davankova & Alexander Enbert.
4. Madeline Aaron & Max Settlage: Both events completed, with 5th at Skate America are way out of it.
Out of contention, but might be a factor at other events:
Vanessa James & Morgan Cipres: 5th at Skate Canada, the setup in France is such that they just might be a factor(or just win bronze)
Kirsten Moore-Towers & Michael Marinaro: 6th at Skate Canada, same deal
Vasilia Davankova & Alexander Enbert: Only assigned to Russia, something of a wild card there, may or may not be a factor
Contenders yet to skate:
Ksenia Stolbova & Fedor Klimov
Vera Bazarova & Andre Deputat(possibly)
Current Pairs Standings
http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2014/gpspairs.htm
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