Does anyone think Michelle has a chance?

cianni · Jul 6, 2005

Wow

From the Newspaper to our eyes. That is about right. I do give her credit for her FS she was all heart and deserved to win that portion of the comp. However the points were way over the top even in a clear win. They just have to cheat. Oh well whats a fan to do.

EricAba · Jul 6, 2005

Let's hope that politics don't play too much of a role in determining next year's Olympic Gold Medalist. CoP seems to be making scoring more transparent on the technical side, but the PCS scores appear to leave considerable room for judges to manipulate placements- it doesn't seem to be much different from the 6.0 system in that respect.

curious · Jul 6, 2005

Joesitz said:
IMO, judges are always amazed at 3x3s for the Ladies and that amazement translates into higher pcs scores together with the roar of the crowd and lots of Bielmans to back it up.

Joe

Yes,we should hold irina responsible for michell's lack of motivation and effort. Is also her fault that kwan can't land a triple -triple in comps to save her life or skate more complex programs. If you think your endless irina bashing is going to help your fave win go ahead,just remember,is the JUDGES these skaters have to please not us. ain't jealousy grand? :biggrin:

attyfan · Jul 6, 2005

curious said:
Yes,we should hold irina responsible for michell's lack of motivation and effort. Is also her fault that kwan can't land a triple -triple in comps to save her life or skate more complex programs ...

You mean Sasha, don't you, as the one who can't land a triple - triple in comps to save her life? (Kwan has landed clean, seven triple programs, with triple triples at Worlds several times; Sahsa has yet to do it) Getting your facts straight might make your criticisms of Kwan sound better.

attyfan · Jul 6, 2005

Joesitz said:
IMO, judges are always amazed at 3x3s for the Ladies and that amazement translates into higher pcs scores together with the roar of the crowd and lots of Bielmans to back it up.

Joe

If judges are so amazed at 3/3 by ladies, how does Sasha get such high scores? Or Irina at Euros? IMO, the scores reached by these skaters show that a 3/3 might be less important than it used to be.

Mathman · Jul 6, 2005

chuckm said:
Carolina Kostner's 3/3s didn't gift her with high PCS scores.

I don't know if "gift" is the right word, but Carolina did get a personal best PCS for her Worlds LP. Her Total PCS was 58.35. This put her only one point behind Michelle (Miss Second Mark) Kwan (59.36), and withing hailing distance of Sasha (Miss Exquisite Ballerina) Cohen (62.12).

Despite a rather coltish presentation throughout, Carolina's PCS was equal to those of Fumie Suguri and ahead of Shizuka Arakawa, both masterful and mature artists, and Susanna Poikyo (the European Kwan). Carolina even got a couple of 8.0s in the Skating Skills component. I think her triple-triple and overall speed and technical competence did play a large part in how the judges saw the program as a whole.

About Irina, I think a lot of people think she does not deserve high scores on her second mark because her style of skating is not the delicate little flower that we sometimes equate with artistry. She's big and bold and in-your-face. At Worlds she skated rings around everyone else. Why quibble about a few extra "beauty points" in the PCS? Go Irina!

To me, it is far too early to start wuzrobbin' the Olympics. We will have plenty of time to complain after the medals are given out. Prediction: Michelle is going to do an Irina at Turino and win going away, leaving everyone crying about all those points she got.

Mathman

Kwanford Wife · Jul 6, 2005

I am not a fan of the new system... If figure skating is to survive, it really needs to come out of the 2006 Olympics flawlessly... and I cannot see how this will happen with a system that is NOT transparent when it counts... in real time. Not after the fact. Its always something with this sport and the hits just keep on coming...

The ladies free skate is notorious for having strange olympic results because people melt down under the pressure. And the casual fan appreciates that fact. This is why Sarah Hughes blew up like she did... she had an Olympic Moment. Same with Oksana... IIRC the last time the favorite won the gold was Kristie or was it further back than that?

But under the new system, will we see that? I'm not so sure. If the "big dawgs" fall down & the newbys skate like they really want it... but the "big dawgs" win... including Irina & Michelle ~ skating will be in trouble. For example, do you honestly doubt that Michelle Kwan would've been the OGM in 02 under the NJS? Doesn't that bother you?

Didn't the IOC give a written warning to the ISU about olympic shanagins with the judging? Also, after the Men's Gymnastic finals with a new system that caused drama ~ wouldn't it dawn on the ISU to ensure that the judging system was as tight as possible? The fact that additions & changes are being made at this late date (relatively speaking ...) speaks to a system NOT being together... The judges are secret, if its "difficult" it doesn't matter if you fall, its hard to understand... I know there are a lot who feel that in sports, if its difficult ~ its better and therefore should win but there is something to be said for a clean performance. Just like there is something to be said for a difficult spin position... where's the middle ground?

But whatever... back to the topic: No, I don't think ~ I don't think the NJS is a logical response to a illogical sport. I don't think the ISU is thinking big picture. I also don't think that the ISU knows how to play its own political games... The problem isn't one skater's spin position or jump sequence... The problem is with a organization that cannon save itself from itself.

I definately don't think its fair to the athletes when the powers that be go out of their way to screw up their opportunites to really, really shine.

Kwanford Wife · Jul 6, 2005

attyfan said:
You mean Sasha, don't you, as the one who can't land a triple - triple in comps to save her life? (Kwan has landed clean, seven triple programs, with triple triples at Worlds several times; Sahsa has yet to do it) Getting your facts straight might make your criticisms of Kwan sound better.

Stop it. Now you know not to expect logic when bashing of Kwan occurs... its simply not as much fun!

curious · Jul 6, 2005

attyfan said:
You mean Sasha, don't you, as the one who can't land a triple - triple in comps to save her life? (Kwan has landed clean, seven triple programs, with triple triples at Worlds several times; Sahsa has yet to do it) Getting your facts straight might make your criticisms of Kwan sound better.

I have my facts straight thank you. How many triple-triples has michell landed in comps lately? I rest my case :biggrin:

curious · Jul 6, 2005

Kwanford Wife said:
I am not a fan of the new system... If figure skating is to survive, it really needs to come out of the 2006 Olympics flawlessly... and I cannot see how this will happen with a system that is NOT transparent when it counts... in real time. Not after the fact. Its always something with this sport and the hits just keep on coming...

The ladies free skate is notorious for having strange olympic results because people melt down under the pressure. And the casual fan appreciates that fact. This is why Sarah Hughes blew up like she did... she had an Olympic Moment. Same with Oksana... IIRC the last time the favorite won the gold was Kristie or was it further back than that?

But under the new system, will we see that? I'm not so sure. If the "big dawgs" fall down & the newbys skate like they really want it... but the "big dawgs" win... including Irina & Michelle ~ skating will be in trouble. For example, do you honestly doubt that Michelle Kwan would've been the OGM in 02 under the NJS? Doesn't that bother you?

Didn't the IOC give a written warning to the ISU about olympic shanagins with the judging? Also, after the Men's Gymnastic finals with a new system that caused drama ~ wouldn't it dawn on the ISU to ensure that the judging system was as tight as possible? The fact that additions & changes are being made at this late date (relatively speaking ...) speaks to a system NOT being together... The judges are secret, if its "difficult" it doesn't matter if you fall, its hard to understand... I know there are a lot who feel that in sports, if its difficult ~ its better and therefore should win but there is something to be said for a clean performance. Just like there is something to be said for a difficult spin position... where's the middle ground?

But whatever... back to the topic: No, I don't think ~ I don't think the NJS is a logical response to a illogical sport. I don't think the ISU is thinking big picture. I also don't think that the ISU knows how to play its own political games... The problem isn't one skater's spin position or jump sequence... The problem is with a organization that cannon save itself from itself.

I definately don't think its fair to the athletes when the powers that be go out of their way to screw up their opportunites to really, really shine.

oksana was the world champ and fave coming to the olys but of course the nancy/tonya scandal made people forget that oksana,surya,chen lu and yuka were the real contenders in 94. :biggrin:

attyfan · Jul 6, 2005

curious said:
I have my facts straight thank you. How many triple-triples has michell landed in comps lately? I rest my case

First, if you had your facts straight, you would have said "landed lately", not just landed. The difference is critical. After her horrible season in '98 and '99 (when she was not ill) people would have criticized Irina for not landing any triple-triples "lately" -- until the GPF in 2000, when she made history.

Doggygirl · Jul 6, 2005

cianni said:
From the Newspaper to our eyes. That is about right. I do give her credit for her FS she was all heart and deserved to win that portion of the comp. However the points were way over the top even in a clear win. They just have to cheat. Oh well whats a fan to do.

At the end of the day, where do YOU think Irina should have placed relative to the other top competitors?

DG

Doggygirl · Jul 6, 2005

Kwanford Wife said:
For example, do you honestly doubt that Michelle Kwan would've been the OGM in 02 under the NJS? Doesn't that bother you?

I definately don't think its fair to the athletes when the powers that be go out of their way to screw up their opportunites to really, really shine.

In answer to your first question (which I hope I understand correctly): The NJS was not in place for Olys 2002. Who knows if the outcome would be different under a different judging system. While none of this "bothers me" as a fan of FS, I think the NJS seems to "bother" MK a lot given her admitted concerns and seeming avoidance of the COP/NJS. I'm thinking specifically about her many interviews throughout last season where she was "tweaking her programs" for COP, and her interview post - QR where she said something along the lines that she felt she was "counting" (i.e. spin rotations). By that time in the season, she shouldn't have had to worry over that. IMO, by that late date her programs should have been set and commited. She might want to consider a "Johnny strategy" (from his interviews) where he claims to leave things to his coaches and choreographers to figure out all the COP point stuff - he just skates.

Question for you: Whose opportunity to really, really shine has been screwed up by the powers that be?

Call me curious,

DG

dancindiva03 · Jul 6, 2005

curious said:
I have my facts straight thank you. How many triple-triples has michell landed in comps lately? I rest my case

And how many triple-triples has Sasha landed EVER? Yeah that's what I thought. Neither one of these ladies can brag in the 3-3 department if we're only talking the last year. But overall, careerwise? I think we all know who wins that one. And in case you're not sure, its not Sasha!

attyfan · Jul 6, 2005

Doggygirl said:
... I think the NJS seems to "bother" MK a lot given her admitted concerns and seeming avoidance of the COP/NJS. I'm thinking specifically about her many interviews throughout last season where she was "tweaking her programs" for COP, and her interview post - QR where she said something along the lines that she felt she was "counting" (i.e. spin rotations). By that time in the season, she shouldn't have had to worry over that ... DG

I think the issues of "avoiding" the NJS (i.e., not doing the GP) and her failure to set her program in stone prior to Worlds are somewhat separate. After all, Sasha didn't do the GP, and it didn't seem to hurt her much; she had a much more CoP friendly program from the outset, and did it relatively consistently. (IMO, Michelle is precisely where I was when my law firm switched to computerized research, after I had been using books for over ten years. I adjusted, but it took me longer than it took others who had not been using books as long as I was; I think Michelle will do the same)

kyla2 · Jul 6, 2005

Michelle

Well, I wish i could say i feel differently, but I think Michelle has a very uphill fight for the gold at the Olympics. Other skaters are already "in position." Based on last season, she isn't. She has so much ground to make up. I don't see it happening unless others are unable to maintain their edge. Anything could happen, but logic tells me otherwise. I am hopeful for her, but this time around my hopes are well grounded in reality. But having said all that, she doesn't owe us anything. I just hope for herself she gives it her very best shot. I want her to be proud of her last effort at the Olympics. I would also like to see Sasha stand up on the ice and stay standing up. I have a very long wish list for this Olympics. I want S & Z to win pairs. I would love to see Johnny Weir medal etc. etc.

Joesitz (RIP) · Jul 6, 2005

curious said:
oksana was the world champ and fave coming to the olys but of course the nancy/tonya scandal made people forget that oksana,surya,chen lu and yuka were the real contenders in 94.

I'm not sure whether you are anti-Kwan or anti-American. Not that it matters, it seems quite obvious. Appreciate your feelings about Sasha who is, at the moment, the American who may just win the forthcoming Olys.

Joe

Mathman · Jul 6, 2005

Doggygirl said:
At the end of the day, where do YOU think Irina should have placed relative to the other top competitors?

Hi Doggygirl (AKA voice of moderation on this contentious thread, LOL

). This question really pinpoints the difference between the two judging systems. The easy answer (I'm not trying to speak for Cianni, just saying what I think) -- the easy answer is, Irina won any way you slice it, so it doesn't matter if her PCS were inflated of not. Just like at the 2002 Olympics, Yagudin was the clear winner, especially after Plushenko took himself out of it with a bad short, so what is the harm in showering him with 6.0s. (OT -- Was Plushenko held up in fourth place in the short just so they would have someone to give the gold medal to in case Yagudin bombed the long?)

That is entirely kosher under ordinal judging. In any ordinal judging system it is the duty and responsibility of the judges to decide who they thought skated best, then to manipulate the numbers (the 5.7s and 5.8s) to make it come out that way.

In the NJS it is a whole new deal. Now the judges are supposed to evaluate each element, together with the five program components, against a fixed standard. This is their whole job. It is not their job to make a judgment as to who skated the best or who ought to win.

Then the computer adds up the points, highest total gets the medal.

So I think it is legitimate for fans to question the program component scores, while still acknowleging that the right person won.

Personally, I think Irina deserved high marks for skating skills and intepretation, not so sure about transitions and choreography. I, however, am by no means an expert (as Hockeyfan is, for instance), on exactly what the criteria are, according to the rules, for these component scores.

About Sasha and triple-triples, I think Curious was comparing Michelle (what have you done for us lately?) with Irina, not with Sasha. Sasha did do a triple-triple in her qualifying program at 2004 Worlds, however, IIRC.

Back on topic (= does Michelle have a chance to medal), I agree with Doggygirl -- I can't for the life of me think why she is so tentative and fearful of the CoP. Just skate, girl -- you're still the gold standard of the sport. Skate your program and let the others try to beat you if they can.

Mathman

PS. Cianni, I edited the title of this thread so that browsers can tell what the topic is from the title, OK?

Eeyora · Jul 7, 2005

I think she has a chance but she is not the favorite. I think it is possible. Many of her past programs were certainly filled with component moves. I agree she should leave a lot to choreographer and still include the normal heart swhe has in her skating.

Jaana · Jul 7, 2005

Kwanford Wife said:
The ladies free skate is notorious for having strange olympic results because people melt down under the pressure. And the casual fan appreciates that fact. This is why Sarah Hughes blew up like she did... she had an Olympic Moment. Same with Oksana... IIRC the last time the favorite won the gold was Kristie or was it further back than that?

I believe that Oksana Baiul was a big favourite to win in 1994, although probably not in USA, LOL. There are other countries existing, and they may see some other skater as the favourite to win... Maybe it is being forgotten by some skating fans that Oksana was the reigning World champion.

Does anyone think Michelle has a chance?

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