The PREAKNESS lineup:
POST HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY
1-Malibu Moonshine (20-1), King Leatherbury, Steve Hamilton
2-High Fly (9-2), Nick Zito, Jerry Bailey
3-Noble Causeway (10-1), Nick Zito, Gary Stevens
4-Greeley's Galaxy (15-1), Warren Stute. David Flores
5-Scrappy T(20-1), Robert Bailes, Ramon Dominguez
6-Hal's Image (50-1), Barry Rose, Jose Santos
7-Closing Argument (5-1), Kiaran McLaughlin, Cornelio Velasquez
8-Galloping Grocer (30-1), Dominick Schettino, Joe Bravo
9-Wilko (10-1), Craig Dollase, Corey Nakatani
10-Sun King (15-1), Nick Zito, Rafael Bejarano
11-High Limit (12-1), Bobby Frankel, Edgar Prado
12-Afleet Alex (5-2), Tim Ritchey, Jeremy Rose
13-Giacomo (6-1), John Shirreffs, Mike Smith
14-Going Wild (30-1), D. Wayne Lukas, Robby Albarado
Comments:
Forget about the new faces Malibu Moonshine, Scrappy T, Hal’s Image and Galloping Grocer. Scrappy T has speed and some class, but he is a frontrunner who hasn’t won beyond 8.5 furlongs. Galloping Grocer had some success at 2, but his last win was as a 2YO in a minor statebred one mile stake and he couldn’t even beat statebreds in his last race. Malibu and Hal’s Image have neither speed nor class. You could make a case for Scrappy T in a trifecta, but I don't see him as a potential winner.
Going Wild and Sun King both seem to have regressed drastically and I don’t see any improvement in the cards.
High Limit is going to go to the front and try to win gate to wire, but I doubt he can sustain his speed for the entire 9.5 furlongs. His last win was the 8.5 furlong Louisiana Derby and he finished 6 lengths behind Bandini in the 9-furlong Blue Grass. There are several other speed horses in here (Sun King, Hal’s Image, Scrappy T, Greeley’s Galaxy, High Fly) and there will be a fairly hot pace up front.
Of the speedsters, Greeley’s Galaxy and High Fly, who have won at 9 furlongs, are most likely to survive the pace into the stretch. Greeley’s Galaxy got off to a bad start in the Derby and was never in contention, so he may be somewhat fresher than High Fly, who closely attended the Derby pace and was fried in the stretch. However, GG really had no real competition in his Illinois Derby win, and he didn’t beat much in terms of class. He is bettable, though. GG had a terrific workout yesterday, which can be looked at as either a positive or negative.
The deep stalkers and closers can at least look forward to decent speed up front to run at in the stretch.
Noble Causeway never got into gear until the stretch, but quickly faded. He has won at 9 furlongs, but that was in an allowance race. I am not sure he has the experience or the guts to beat the top horses in here, but he wasn’t as ‘used up’ as some of the other Derby horses so he may still have some chance.
Closing Argument ran a terrific race in the Derby, and almost won, even though he was very close to the pace, right behind Bellamy Road. What is somewhat disturbing is that his trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, made a comment to a reporter about how he was disappointed that CA didn’t win the Derby, because he is so much better when fresh. Some handicappers have taken that to mean that CA won’t be as good after only two weeks’ rest. I still think he is a contender.
Wilko has 3 wins for 15 starts, and hasn’t won this year yet. He did gain some in the Derby, but was knocked about a fair amount (he is a very small horse). He did finish ahead of 6 of the other Derby competitors in this race, so you can’t blame those who think he’s still worth a bet.
Afleet Alex is a tough competitor, and the most accomplished horse in this field. He is 6 for 10 lifetime, and finished off the board just once, when he was discovered to have a lung infection. He always tries his utmost, and that is the one thing that may hurt him here. He put forth tremendous effort in the Derby to finish 3rd, and it seems as if 9 furlongs is his distance limit. If he were a fresh horse, I think he could go ½ furlong more---but he is not a fresh horse. I really like this guy, and won’t leave him out, but I am not sure he can win this one.
Giacomo has gotten no respect from the handicappers, who dismiss his Derby win as a fluke, saying all he did was pass tired horses. That is not quite true, because Giacomo had to go 8 and 10 wide at times, weaving his way between horses, and may have traveled a longer distance than any other horse in the race. He emerged from the Derby in great shape. I think this horse is just beginning to peak, and on that basis I would not think of leaving him out of my bets. And I, too would like to see him go into the Belmont as a Triple Crown contender.
He's a true fighter!