2012 ISU World Team Trophy Predictions

[Skater Boy]

NOPE...its gonna be Ashely and Gracie!!!

http://www.isuresults.com/events/cat00027888.htm

Wow they are really investing in Gracie. I would have liked to send Zhang to see if she could skate consistently for a third time this year. She has been pretty solid. It is a bit of a slap to Zawadia,, Gao, Zhang et al. It also suggests people aren't taking the team event as serious - almost like a farm team or develpment - how sad. Maybe it needs to be made aprt of the World championship?

 

[PolymerBob]

Vanessa is the alternate. They might have picked Gracie over Caroline and Agnes, but not Vanessa.
Caroline and Agnes must have declined.

 

[enlight78]

I would like to chang my Prediction now
Gold Japan
Silver Usa
Bronze Canada
4th Russia
5th Italy
6th France

 

[mskater93]

Wow they are really investing in Gracie. I would have liked to send Zhang to see if she could skate consistently for a third time this year. She has been pretty solid. It is a bit of a slap to Zawadia,, Gao, Zhang et al. It also suggests people aren't taking the team event as serious - almost like a farm team or develpment - how sad. Maybe it needs to be made aprt of the World championship?

It's a great way to introduce her to international Senior competition without throwing her to the GP wolves...I am pretty sure she was asked before Z or Z.

 

[Mathman]

I think Canada's fate is in the hands of Reynolds and Phaneuf. We pretty much know how the rest will fare (assuming that Duhamel and Radford keep up the good work). If Reynolds and Phaneuf surprise a few people, Canada is right in it with Japan.

I am rooting for Italy to beat somebody!

Vanessa is the alternate. They might have picked Gracie over Caroline and Agnes, but not Vanessa.

Caroline and Agnes must have declined.

Yeah, Caroline and Agnes (also Mirai) have not skated in two months. Gracie and Vanessa did Junior Worlds, so they might be better prepared to compete at this point.

 

[Sylvia]

Here are placements base on the most recent scores;

I don't mind your copying the Worlds/SB scores I compiled over at FSU but wish you had credited my effort (I notice you've edited out the SB scores of the skaters whose Worlds scores weren't their season bests): http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showpost.php?p=3539589&postcount=157

Ranked in order of 2012 Worlds or Jr Worlds scores; SB scores included:

MEN
Chan CAN (266.11 Worlds 1st; SB 273.94 4CC 1st)
Takahashi JPN (259.66 Worlds 2nd; SB 259.75 NHK 1st)
Joubert FRA (SB 244.58 Worlds 4th)
Amodio FRA (SB 243.03 Worlds 5th)
Abbott USA (226.19 Worlds 8th; SB 238.82 GPF 5th)
Contesti ITA (SB 224.89 Worlds 10th)
Kozuka JPN (218.63 Worlds 11th; SB 235.02 NHK 2nd)
Reynolds CAN (SB 217.20 Worlds 12th)
Rippon USA (216.63 Worlds 13th; SB 221.55 4CC 4th)
[Voronov RUS (SB 210.04 Worlds 17th) - WD due to injury & replaced by Maxim Kovtun]
Bush RUS (SB 196.06 Jr Worlds 5th)
ETA on April 11: Kovtun RUS 193.76 (JGP Final, 4th)
Bacchini ITA (SB 170.11 Euros 16th)

LADIES
Kostner ITA (SB 189.94 Worlds 1st)
Leonova RUS (SB 184.28 Worlds 2nd)
Suzuki JPN (180.68 Worlds 3rd; SB 185.98 NHK 1st)
Wagner USA (176.77 Worlds 4th; SB 192.41 4CC 1st)
Murakami JPN (SB 175.41 Worlds 5th)
Gold USA (171.85 Jr Worlds 2nd; SB 172.69 JGP EST 1st)
Sotnikova RUS (168.45 Jr Worlds 3rd; SB 169.75 Russia GP 3rd)
Marchei ITA (SB 150.10 Worlds 8th)
Silete FRA (SB 148.18 Worlds 12th)
Lacoste CAN (138.60 Worlds 16th; SB 148.48 Russia GP 8th)
Phaneuf CAN (SB 147.47 4CC 8th)
Meite FRA (SB 145.44 TEB GP 6th)

PAIRS
Takahashi/Tran JPN (SB 189.69 Worlds 3rd)
Duhamel/Radford CAN (SB 185.41 Worlds 5th)
Bazarova/Larionov RUS (183.68 Worlds 6th; 193.79 SB Euros)
Denney/Coughlin USA (180.37 Worlds 8th; SB 185.42 4CC 2nd)
Berton/Hotarek ITA (SB 168.16 Worlds 11th)
Popova/Massot FRA (SB 139.98 Euros 8th)

DANCE
Virtue/Moir CAN (182.65 Worlds 1st; SB 183.34 GPF 2nd)
Davis/White USA (178.62 Worlds 2nd; SB 188.55 GPF 1st)
Pechalat/Bourzat FRA (SB 173.18 Worlds 3rd)
Ilinykh/Katsalapov RUS (SB 161.00 Worlds 5th)
Cappellini/Lanotte ITA (SB 160.62 Worlds 6th)
Reed/Reed JPN (Worlds 24th FNR; SB 123.22 NHK 7th)

Japan:11+6+10+8+12+7=54

USA:8+4+9+7+9+11=48

Canada:12+5+3+2+11+12=45

Russia:3+2+11+6+10+9= 41

Italy:7+1+12+5+8+8 =41

France:10+9+4+1+7+10=41

The teams seem to be evenly matched with most of them score in the low 40's: Its seams like T/T are given Japan the edge and how they perform will determine who gets gold or not.

Thanks for doing the math!

 

[DianaSelene]

I don't think Liza is age eligible. Still Russia's chances dropped without V and T or even K and S. Japan is looking better and better. the USA has to find a second lady to back up Wagner. Send Alissa and see if she can redeem herself. if she bombs while it sounds mean - time for her to hit the books and may be do a few shows - Cinderella, a smurf whatever

But if we go by worlds and euros rules, Sotnikova would not be eligible either. Shw was born one day late.

 

[jamie]

Predictions:
Takahashi, Chan, Amodio, Kozuka, Abbott, Joubert, Rippon, Contesti, Reynolds, Voronov, Bush, Bacchini

Sotnikova, Kostner, Suzuki, Leonova, Wagner, Gold, Murakami, Meite, Silete, Marchei, Lacoste, Phaneuf

Takahashi/Tran, B/L, D/R, B/H, D/C, P/M

V/M, D/W, P/B, I/K, C/L, R/R

 

[macy]

wow i'm so surprised they're sending gracie. what a slap in the face to alissa.

 

[Sjs5572]

wow i'm so surprised they're sending gracie. what a slap in the face to alissa.

I love Alissa as much as any red-blooded American uber-fan. However, after back to back meltdowns at Challenge Cup and Worlds, it seems that she is in no shape to compete (physically and/or mentally).

In addition, significant prize money is at stake. Sending her, IMHO, wouldn't be fair to the other USA team members.

 

[Mathman]

But if we go by worlds and euros rules, Sotnikova would not be eligible either. Shw was born one day late.

They are both age eligible, according to the team trophy rules.

 

[enlight78]

I don't mind your copying the Worlds/SB scores I compiled over at FSU but wish you had credited my effort (I notice you've edited out the SB scores of the skaters whose Worlds scores weren't their season bests): http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showpost.php?p=3539589&postcount=157

Sorry Sylvia; just did it right quick while I was at work; I should be thanking you for compiling most of the data.

 

[Sylvia]

Sorry Sylvia; just did it right quick while I was at work; I should be thanking you for compiling most of the data.

Thank you for acknowledging my scores compilation and thanks again for going the extra step with the data! How different would the final totals be if you used ALL Season Best scores?

 

[alexeifan]

I thought I was done with having to see Chan's sp again, getting kind of sick of it even tho it's a beautiful program.

 

[enlight78]

Thank you for acknowledging my scores compilation and thanks again for going the extra step with the data! How different would the final totals be if you used ALL Season Best scores?

Base on the participants' Seaons's Best the outcome would be

Gold or Silver Japan:11+7+10+8+11+7=54

Gold or Silver USA: 8+5+12+7+10+12=54

Bronze Canada:12+4+3+3+9+11=42

4th France:10+9+4+1+7+10=41

5th Russia:3+2+9+6+12+9=41

6th Italy:6+1+11+5+8+8=39

This makes it look like US has a real shot at gold against Japan and everyone else is fighting for bronze.

 

[enlight78]

But if we go by worlds and euros rules, Sotnikova would not be eligible either. Shw was born one day late.

Liza and Sheplen are listed as Substitutes

 

[DianaSelene]

Liza and Sheplen are listed as Substitutes

Hm, weird that Russia would prefer to send Sotnikova over Tukt this year even though the latter had a more successful season. Maybe they want Adelina to have more experience?

 

[skatingfan04]

My money's on Japan for the gold over Canada (who I think will get silver). I think Canada has more potential for first place finishes overall ( as well as what I'm guessing will be a good placement by the quickly improving Duhamel/Radford), but ladies singles will likely be a huge problem for us (though Japan has an equal downfall in the dance, singles counts for more here.) I'd guess USA for bronze (seriously lacking depth in pairs, and to some extent in ladies and mens as well), because I simply don't think the Russain team is strong enough. Unfortunately for the US and Canada, only having one entry for ice dance is gonna hurt.

 

[RemyRose]

Hm, weird that Russia would prefer to send Sotnikova over Tukt this year even though the latter had a more successful season. Maybe they want Adelina to have more experience?

Sotnikova I believe has a higher world ranking than Liza so that's why I believe she gets to go.

 

[ice coverage]

Liza and Sheplen are listed as Substitutes

Sotnikova I believe has a higher world ranking than Liza so that's why I believe she gets to go.

Да, Sotnikova is higher than Tuktamysheva both in World Standings and Season's World Rankings.

Но ... does that suggest that Makarova chose not to have any WTT role? She is higher than Sotnikova in World Standings, and higher than Tuktamysheva and Shelepen on both lists.

ISU World Standings [2011/2012 season (100%) + 2010/2011 season (100%) + 2009/2010 season (70%)]
Rank Points Name
3 4245 Alena LEONOVA
12 2560 Ksenia MAKAROVA
14 2403 Adelina SOTNIKOVA
22 1998 Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA
28 1606 Polina SHELEPEN
38 1264 Polina AGAFONOVA
44 1121 Polina KOROBEYNIKOVA

ISU Season's World Rankings (2011/2012 season)
Rank Points Name
3 2088 Alena LEONOVA
9 1303 Adelina SOTNIKOVA
14 1121 Polina KOROBEYNIKOVA
15 1100 Julia LIPNITSKAIA
17 992 Ksenia MAKAROVA
18 983 Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA
24 860 Polina SHELEPEN