My thoughts for tonight:
1. Yuna: If her practices are any indication, the FS is hers to win (but also to lose). Consistency has never been an issue with her, and she thrives under pressure, even when she skates last (which, as I understand, is not her favorite). We could be looking at our World Champion here.
2. Carolina: She needs to go clean, which didn't happen at Europeans. Her lack of 3Lz and 3F will handicap her when you consider the technical content of the other ladies in her group. I don't think the judges will hold her up again if she makes serious errors. First place is still within her reach, but only if she sells her program like we know she can and Yuna has some missteps.
3. Kanako: As lovely as she is to watch, she'll need to be technically flawless to keep her place. URs will not be her friend with this tech panel, and I'm fearing that she'll have a repeat of 4CC, where she skated very well in the SP and then got dinged with URs in the FS. I just don't see her staying where she is.
4. Kaetlyn: Despite the "inflation" scandal, I don't believe she can afford more than one mistake and make the podium with the current depth of the field. She could skate like she did at the Skate Canada Challenge, but a clean FS hasn't really been in her repertoire this season. She is undoubtedly in the top ten, which will secure 2 spots for Canada at the Olympics.
5. Ashley: What's this I hear about her landing her difficult combos? All she needs is one of her GP skates (preferably TEB), plus a 3-3 or 2A-3T. She can do it, and a medal isn't out of the question if Murakami and Osmond aren't clean. Like she said, she needs to be aggressive and get those three spots back at any cost.
6. Mao: She has a gorgeous, content-packed program--my main concern is whether or not she can land her eight triples. She was incredibly lucky to have her 3A ratified in the SP, but it's still a clearly unreliable jump for her. She'll need all of those triples to land on the podium, I'm afraid, but she's unlikely to go clean.
7. Akiko: She'll either hit or miss. She probably won't replicate her bronze medal from last year's Worlds, but she is a true joy to watch. My hope is that she stays consistent throughout her program.
8. Adelina: Please don't melt down. Please. The thought of another CoR-esque FS from her gets me shaky and cold, so I'm going to rewatch her Euros FS to stay optimistic. I hate to say it (and I hope it isn't on her mind during the skate), but she is the only one who can pull the Russian ladies back into three-spot territory. She'll need to be absolutely clean to have any chance of moving up.
9. Gracie: This would be the time to skate a US Nationals FS. She won't score big in PCS (60 would be pushing it), but her TES could easily be the highest of the night if she does what we've seen her do. She's skating first on smooth ice, which is a benefit, and from what I can tell, she and Ashley are hell-bent on getting those three spots back. They're so, so close. It all comes down to tonight.
12. Zijun: Okay, one question: Where the hell is she pulling her strength from?! Seriously, I want to take her out for McDonald's. But, in all honesty, she may overtake Viktoria after the FS. It all depends on if she can deliver, especially with her technical content.
13. Alena: I think she'll be staying around the same area. Personally, even with the jump errors, I felt that her score for the SP was too low. But the judges seem to be overlooking her now, and in the extremely unlikely event that she skates clean, she'll probably still be dinged for jump "mistakes." She isn't going to be Russia's savior this time around.
14. Elizaveta: Oh, Liza. I'm probably looking forward to her FS more than anyone else's. In all honesty, even clean (which we've seen her do), it'll be a tall order to crack the top ten unless Akiko, Adelina, or Gracie mess up big-time. She needs to keep her head down and do what she's capable of, because worrying about Russia's three spots will doom her.
