2013 Worlds predictions

[KatEll]

at SC Osmond had huge advantage

Osmond's score at SC was 176.45. Her score at Nebelhorn was 170.19. Not the "huge" difference being implied. But maybe I missed the news, and Germany is now a province of Canada? Nobody tells me anything!

As I recall, SC was a splatfest for many other skaters. Elene Gedevanishvili was probably destined to win, if she had not messed up her LP in the end. I wonder if people would have complained if Elene did win over Suzuki.

 

[silverlake22]

Men

1.) Fernandez
2.) Hanyu
3.) Chan
4.) Takahashi
5.) Amodio
6.) Aaron
7.) Kovtun
8.) Joubert
9.) Brezina
10.) Mura
11.) Reynolds
12.) Song


Ladiezz

1.) Asada
2.) Kim
3.) Kostner
4.) Tuktamysheva
5.) Wagner
6.) Suzuki
7.) Gold
8.) Murakami
9.) Sotnikova
10.) Li
11.) Marchei
12.) Osmond

Will do pairs and dance later

 

[merrywidow]

Silver Lake: I tend to agree with your top 6 men but come on--Kovtun in 7th? No Ross Miner in your top 12? I just rewatched the European Men's championship & Kovtun landed his jumps but is very slow, very juniorish, & his choreography to Casablanca is pathetic.

 

[flutzy13]

Silly question, but when will start orders for the short program go up?

 

[chuckm]

The Pairs and Men SP are on Wednesday, so I'd guess Tuesday.

 

[aero]

My Predictions:

Men
1. Patrick Chan (won't win SP or FS)
2. Javier Fernandez (will win FS)
3. Yuzuru Hanyu (will win SP but falter in FS)
4. Daisuke Takahashi
5. Florent Amodio
6-7. Michal Brezina/Brian Joubert
8. Max Aaron
9-10. Takahito Mura/Ross Miner
11. Maxim Kovtun

Ladies
1. YuNa Kim (Will perform okay in the SP but rally in the FS)
2. Mao Asada (Will probably suffer from UR calls)
3. Carolina Kostner (I think she's lacking in motivation)
4. Akiko Suzuki (If she's given the PCS that she deserves)
5. Ashley Wagner (She'll be determined, plus I want to say that the Americans will earn back 3 spots)
6. Elizaveta Tuktamisheva (Won't skate well in SP but will catch up in the FS)
7. Adelina Sotnikova (Will skate well in the SP but falter in the FS)
8. Gracie Gold (If she hits all her jumps during the FS, her PCS will weigh her down)
9. Kanako Murakami (Will suffer from UR's)
10. Li Zijun (Very consistent, needs a couple seasons and more experience for her PCS)
11. Kaetlyn Osmond (Tons of pressure, she needs more experience)
12. Alena Leonova
13. Valentina Marchei

Pairs
1. Volosozhar/Trankov (A lot of momentum going into Worlds)
2. Savchenko/Szolkowy
3. Moore-Towers/Moscovitch (Their FS is phenomenal, they'll need to skate a good SP though)
4. Duhamel/Radford (Will probably outscore MT/M in the short)
5. Qing/Tong
6. Bazarova/Larionov (I'm apprehensive because of their injury)
7. Berton/Hotarek (Have skated well this season)
8. Kavaguti/Smirnov (I'm hoping that they return to form for Sochi)
9. Wenjing/Han (They needed to skate this season, I feel like they aren't prepared)
10. Castelli/Shnapir (They can score better if they go clean)
11. James/Cipres
12. Scimeca/Knierim
13. Peng/Zhang

Dance
1. Davis/White (They've been consistently scoring higher in their FD)
2. Virtue/Moir
3. Ilinykh/Katsapolov (I just feel like they're going to score better than B/S)
4. Bobrova/Sololiev
5. Cappellini/Lanotte
6. Weaver/Poje (More time to recover than P/B)
7. Pechelat/Bourzat
8-10. Chock/Bates, Shibutani/Shibutani, Gilles/Poirer (Really depends. G/P had the highest FD score but lowest SD at FCC; S/S were in the middle; C/B had the highest SD, but lowest FD)
11. Riazanova/Tkachenko

 

[bramweld]

V/M are struggling this year. So if they and D/W skate clean I think the Americans have it. The flow, ease, speed, confidence that they've had in previous seasons is not there for this FD, IMHO. As for the bronze, that is WIDE OPEN. It depends on who is best on that day; it could be B/S, I/K, P/B, C/L, W/P,S/S.....I could go on and on...

 

[hippomoomin]

Silly question, but when will start orders for the short program go up?

Probably a day before the real competition.

 

[Skater Boy]

I hope V and M improve and give D and W a run for their money or I fear they may retire.

 

[silverlake22]

Silver Lake: I tend to agree with your top 6 men but come on--Kovtun in 7th? No Ross Miner in your top 12? I just rewatched the European Men's championship & Kovtun landed his jumps but is very slow, very juniorish, & his choreography to Casablanca is pathetic.

Ross Miner has bad technique on his axel and quad, thus, in a pressure situation like this, I tend to think they will not work out for him. He has skated ONE clean (and not even, 4s< in SP at Nats) SP all season, so I think unless he is smart and takes the quad out of the SP, he will find himself in the 2nd or 3rd warm up group for the FS, put the pressure on himself to move up, and then the tough jumps will not work out for him, we saw mistakes slip in during high pressure situations like when he popped the 3a at US Nats and again at 4CC (along with popping the 4s).

Kovtun's choreo and programs are crap but it doesn't matter as long as he lands his jumps, which he has been all season. His PCS at Euros in the FS was 72, that's about as good as Miner gets with solid programs so really I think Kovtun will do very well unless he has some unprecedented meltdown with his jumps. Ross is a better skater but he needs to get new coaches and soon to fix that technique on his axels and quad - it really is odd technique and if he wants to be a contender on the World level it's gonna be a lot better if he has good technique that is more reliable on those jumps he definitely needs to contend.

 

[sky_fly20]

weird I just dreamed of Kovtun in his SP
he did a nice 4T-3T, 1A and hand down 3Lutz

 

[snowflake]

^

 

[Mirunna]

7. Pechelat/Bourzat

I highly doubt they'll end up in 7th! If they are not recovered, they won't show in a bad shape, they can't afford placing lower than third if they want a medal at Sochi. Since they show up I believe they are in form to fight for the podium.

 

[Skater Boy]

My Predictions:

Men
1. Patrick Chan (won't win SP or FS)
2. Javier Fernandez (will win FS)
3. Yuzuru Hanyu (will win SP but falter in FS)
4. Daisuke Takahashi
5. Florent Amodio
6-7. Michal Brezina/Brian Joubert
8. Max Aaron
9-10. Takahito Mura/Ross Miner
11. Maxim Kovtun

Ladies
1. YuNa Kim (Will perform okay in the SP but rally in the FS)
2. Mao Asada (Will probably suffer from UR calls)
3. Carolina Kostner (I think she's lacking in motivation)
4. Akiko Suzuki (If she's given the PCS that she deserves)
5. Ashley Wagner (She'll be determined, plus I want to say that the Americans will earn back 3 spots)
6. Elizaveta Tuktamisheva (Won't skate well in SP but will catch up in the FS)
7. Adelina Sotnikova (Will skate well in the SP but falter in the FS)
8. Gracie Gold (If she hits all her jumps during the FS, her PCS will weigh her down)
9. Kanako Murakami (Will suffer from UR's)
10. Li Zijun (Very consistent, needs a couple seasons and more experience for her PCS)
11. Kaetlyn Osmond (Tons of pressure, she needs more experience)
12. Alena Leonova
13. Valentina Marchei

Pairs
1. Volosozhar/Trankov (A lot of momentum going into Worlds)
2. Savchenko/Szolkowy
3. Moore-Towers/Moscovitch (Their FS is phenomenal, they'll need to skate a good SP though)
4. Duhamel/Radford (Will probably outscore MT/M in the short)
5. Qing/Tong
6. Bazarova/Larionov (I'm apprehensive because of their injury)
7. Berton/Hotarek (Have skated well this season)
8. Kavaguti/Smirnov (I'm hoping that they return to form for Sochi)
9. Wenjing/Han (They needed to skate this season, I feel like they aren't prepared)
10. Castelli/Shnapir (They can score better if they go clean)
11. James/Cipres
12. Scimeca/Knierim
13. Peng/Zhang

Dance
1. Davis/White (They've been consistently scoring higher in their FD)
2. Virtue/Moir
3. Ilinykh/Katsapolov (I just feel like they're going to score better than B/S)
4. Bobrova/Sololiev
5. Cappellini/Lanotte
6. Weaver/Poje (More time to recover than P/B)
7. Pechelat/Bourzat
8-10. Chock/Bates, Shibutani/Shibutani, Gilles/Poirer (Really depends. G/P had the highest FD score but lowest SD at FCC; S/S were in the middle; C/B had the highest SD, but lowest FD)
11. Riazanova/Tkachenko

Very well thought out and argued. I can see your perspective on everything except maybe W and P v. P and B. I thought Weaver's injury was far more severe? Does anyone know?

 

[Skater Boy]

I highly doubt they'll end up in 7th! If they are not recovered, they won't show in a bad shape, they can't afford placing lower than third if they want a medal at Sochi. Since they show up I believe they are in form to fight for the podium.

i agreee I don't think his injury was nearly as bad as Weaver's.

 

[elif]

Ladies

Kim Yu-Na
Gracie Gold
Mao Asada

Men
Javier Fernandez
Patrick Chan
Daisuke Takahashi

Pairs
Volosozhar/Trankov
Savchenko/Szolkowy
Duhamel/Radford

Dance
Davis/White
Virtue/Moir
Ilınykh/Katsalapov

 

[chuckm]

The results page is up, and here are the technical panels:

MEN
Tech Controller Beth CRANE CAN
Tech Spec Pirjo UIMONEN FIN
Asst Tech Spec Zsofia KULCZAR HUN

LADIES
Tech Controller Leena LAAKSONEN FIN
Tech Spec Sandor GALAMBOS SUI
Asst Tech Spec Lisa ERVIN USA - she is a notorious stickler. Should be lots of URs and edge calls

PAIRS
Tech Controller Karen ARCHER GBR
Tech Spec Troy GOLDSTEIN USA
Asst Tech Spec Jamie McGRIGOR CAN


ICE DANCE
Tech Controller Ingrid Charlotte WOLTER GER
Tech Spec Marie BOWNESS CAN
Asst Tech Spec Judy BLUMBERG USA Another stickler!

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

LADIES
Tech Controller Leena LAAKSONEN FIN
Tech Spec Sandor GALAMBOS SUI
Asst Tech Spec Lisa ERVIN USA - she is a notorious stickler. Should be lots of URs and edge calls

I'm always happy to see someone with top competitive results (US Silver, WC Team) as a technical specialist. She is very knowledgable.

 

[TontoK]

RE: The Sticklers

Good. It's the World Championships. Get your jumps all the way around, or get your backside home.

 

[mskater93]

^^^^
A, c'mon, TontoK, you know you want to see the highest scores of the season at Worlds (even if they are iffy and there are arguments over whether or not something was 84 or 94 degrees rotated)!!!