2014-2015 GP Predictions game, Round 5: Trophée Bompard

[Mrs. P]

It is true that the results remind a lotery sometimes.

I (may be some other people also) experienced an inverse to what CaroLiza_fan told. Due to the unstable HanYan conditions, I did not include him into initial top 5. Then, listening the reports about his successful trainings, at the last moment promoted him instead of Menshov. The result was a loss. Conclusion is the same: more information dos not necessarily helps.

My only success in this game is a good standing at Dance, which I don't follow at all. This, again, is not a good sign for the game rules (and to the great extent - for ISU).

For the excessive(?) randomness, our rules should be partially blamed, IMHO. The 4th-5th places are really random while they are taken into account as seriously as the podium. Let me wish that our great minds organizing the game would consider some changes next time (still keeping the game easy to score).

Thanks for your note. There seems to be this view point that the podium should be worth more, which was expressed early in the game organization. I took that into account and the conclusion I came to is that arguably there just as much skill in predicting 4th or 5th place as there is in predicting the podium. And the podium can be just as random this season. Let's consider the fact that only THREE people have medaled at both their GPs this season.

FWIW, the men has always been a crapshoot because you have a number of men who have very close scoring ability/potential. And even the "gimmes" aren't always that way. Patrick Chan losing to Javier Fernandez at Skate Canada in 2012, for example.

 

[FSGMT]

I put the scores in the spreadsheet yesterday, but here I am with the official post...
This was not a bad event: most of us predicted correctly that Elena, Julia and Ashley were the favourites for the podium, but the disappointing placement for most of us (including me ) was Cesario's low placement. I am very happy to announce that we even have one perfect score: congratulations to sbstien
Then, second place with 65 points for 7 people!
And, bronze medal with 60 points for 16 players
As always, let me know if you find calculation mistakes
See you in Japan!

 

[LRK]

Thanks for your note. There seems to be this view point that the podium should be worth more, which was expressed early in the game organization. I took that into account and the conclusion I came to is that arguably there just as much skill in predicting 4th or 5th place as there is in predicting the podium. And the podium can be just as random this season. Let's consider the fact that only THREE people have medaled at both their GPs this season.

FWIW, the men has always been a crapshoot because you have a number of men who have very close scoring ability/potential. And even the "gimmes" aren't always that way. Patrick Chan losing to Javier Fernandez at Skate Canada in 2012, for example.

I agree that I don't find 4-5th place necessarily any easier to predict than the podium - in some cases it's the reverse, so looking at it that way, the podium should be worth LESS. But I don't think it should be. And the men.... you don't know what they will do from the SP to the LP - let alone from one competition to another. And the difference in their scoring/placement potential is so... huge. There is such wide disparity between their worst and best - and this goes for all of them. The only male skater I have any trust to perform approximately as expected at this point is... Alexander Petrov, actually. He has been remarkably consistent over - what is it now? - six? competitions this season. But who knows? When he turns senior next year, he may be bitten with the inconsistency bug just like everyone else... (sighs, disillusioned)

 

[Mrs. P]

Mrs. P. Thanks for the offers of scoring, but decided once again to do double duty while our pair scorer is on hiatus. Might take up on your offer in the next round.


Bad news first, THE MEN.

The average score, as you might expect was pretty low: 35 points.

So special props to those on the podium!

GOLD: Miss Ice and bea (55)
SILVER: tulosai, Sandpiper and Astrid56 (50)
BRONZE: supsu, rosacotton,Mentalopes, MangoMango, katmari, invisilbespiral, Ice Diva, guenever, gallavich, FreeAgent, CaroLizafan, aero and 96skiluvr (45)

Men placements after 5 events
1st: gallavich (220)
2nd: Sam-Skwantch, Mentalopes, HR4, CaroLiza_fan (215)
3rd: Totentanz, lights out, guenever (210)
4th: snowflake,katmari, el henry, bea (205)
8th: supsu, semosk8fan, Poice, Pippuripihvi, Eclair (200)

 

[Mrs. P]

And pairs was much better. Average 62! :CLAP:

And a pretty crowded podium, including several perfect scores:

GOLD (and perfect score of 75): YesWay,yanjie,WeakAnkles, Totentanz, SubRosa, Skategmt, sequinsgalore, SashaJuliaSpins, [email protected], s_parks, rosacotton, Mentalopes, MangoMango, malif, Lydia1703,invisiblespiral, Hyena, HanDomi, gravy, Gia_Sesshoumaru, GF2445, gallavich, FIREBIRD, desertskates, cjmorton29, bj80alex, bellflower, bea, Astrid56, ArcticMonkey, aero, 96skiluvr. 31 gold medalists! WOW!

SILVER (65 points): WoChair, tulosai, text_skate, surimi, supsu, sunny_stars, Snow63, skateforever, shingalas, semosk8fan, sbstien, Poice, NYscorp6, nipman, MsLiinaLi, Mrs. P mis751, lost3iron, lightsout, lighthouse, forruiz, Florencito, fleeting, enlight78, el henry, Danja, cleo2070, CanadianSkaterGuy, alebi 29 medalists!

BRONZE (60 points): yqs100, Wiheiminia, snoflake, pitterpatter, FSGMT

Nearly 70 percent of the Pairs participants got on the podium. Nice work.

Pairs standings after 5 events
1st: rosacotton (325)
2nd: Mentalopes (320)
3rd: ArcticMonkeys and 96skiluvr (315)
4th: Totentanz and sequinsgalore (310)
6th SubRosa, semosk8fan, HanDomi and alebi (305)
10th: tulosai, shingalas, darazam (300)

 

[Mrs. P]

And now Trophee Eric Bompard OVERALL RESULTS!!

GOLD: rosacotton and gallavich (245)
SILVER: sbstien, Mentalopes, invisiblespiral, bea, aero (240)
BRONZE: SashaJuliaSpins, GF2445 and bellflower (235)

Congrats to the medalists!

And overall placements after five rounds:

1st: Mentalopes (1055)
2nd: alebi (1025)
3rd: sequinsgalore, [email protected], HR4, gallavich (1010)
4th: rosacotton (1000)
5th: katmari and 96skiluvr (995)
7th: HanDomi (990)
8th: el henry and CanadianSkaterGuy (985)
10th: lightsout and bea (980)
12th: Totentanz, semosk8fan and cjmorton29 (975)
15th: WeakAnkles, FSGMT, ArcticMonkeys, aero (970)
19th: Snow63,shingalas, Hyena, darazam, bellflower (965)
24th: surimi and Poice (960)

Onward to NHK!

 

[aero]

Mrs. P!
I happen to be listed as a silver and bronze medalist.

 

[silverfoxes]

Men placements after 5 events
1st: gallavich (220)
2nd: Sam-Skwantch, Mentalopes, HR4, CaroLiza_fan (215)
3rd: Totentanz, lights out, guenever (210)
4th: snowflake,katmari, el henry, bea (205)
8th: supsu, semosk8fan, Poice, Pippuripihvi, Eclair (200)

And now Trophee Eric Bompard OVERALL RESULTS!!

GOLD: rosacotton and gallavich (245)
SILVER: sbstien, Mentalopes, invisiblespiral, bea, aero (240)
BRONZE: aero, SashaJuliaSpins,malif, GF2445 and bellflower (235)

Congrats to the medalists!

And overall placements after five rounds:

1st: Mentalopes (1055)
2nd: alebi (1025)
3rd: sequinsgalore, [email protected], HR4, gallavich (1010)
4th: rosacotton (1000)
5th: katmari and 96skiluvr (995)
7th: HanDomi (990)
8th: el henry and CanadianSkaterGuy (985)
10th: lightsout and bea (980)
12th: Totentanz, semosk8fan and cjmorton29 (975)
15th: WeakAnkles, FSGMT, ArcticMonkeys, aero (970)
19th: Snow63,shingalas, Hyena, darazam, bellflower (965)
24th: surimi, Poice and malif (960)

Onward to NHK!

Wow! I can hardly believe it!

 

[Mrs. P]

Mrs. P!
I happen to be listed as a silver and bronze medalist.

Thanksfully it's the former! Congrats! Sorry about the error!

 

[Lydia1703]

And pairs was much better. Average 62! :CLAP:

And a pretty crowded podium, including several perfect scores:

GOLD (and perfect score of 75): YesWay,yanjie,WeakAnkles, Totentanz, SubRosa, Skategmt, sequinsgalore, SashaJuliaSpins, [email protected], s_parks, rosacotton, Mentalopes, MangoMango, malif, Lydia1703,invisiblespiral, Hyena, HanDomi, gravy, Gia_Sesshoumaru, GF2445, gallavich, FIREBIRD, desertskates, cjmorton29, bj80alex, bellflower, bea, Astrid56, ArcticMonkey, aero, 96skiluvr. 31 gold medalists! WOW!

Should I forget about my diet and buy me a cake? I got a gold medal from a discipline that I have never followed :shocked:

 

[Snow63]

Can't believe just one event left till GPF. I feel like the season started just yesterday

 

[LRK]

Should I forget about my diet and buy me a cake? I got a gold medal from a discipline that I have never followed :shocked:

Well - of course you should! Need you even ask?

 

[SashaJuliaSpins]

And now Trophee Eric Bompard OVERALL RESULTS!!

GOLD: rosacotton and gallavich (245)
SILVER: sbstien, Mentalopes, invisiblespiral, bea, aero (240)
BRONZE: SashaJuliaSpins, GF2445 and bellflower (235)

Congrats to the medalists!

And overall placements after five rounds:

1st: Mentalopes (1055)
2nd: alebi (1025)
3rd: sequinsgalore, [email protected], HR4, gallavich (1010)
4th: rosacotton (1000)
5th: katmari and 96skiluvr (995)
7th: HanDomi (990)
8th: el henry and CanadianSkaterGuy (985)
10th: lightsout and bea (980)
12th: Totentanz, semosk8fan and cjmorton29 (975)
15th: WeakAnkles, FSGMT, ArcticMonkeys, aero (970)
19th: Snow63,shingalas, Hyena, darazam, bellflower (965)
24th: surimi and Poice (960)

Onward to NHK!

Shut up! :shocked: I never imagined in my wildest dreams Beginners luck?

 

[rosacotton]

And now Trophee Eric Bompard OVERALL RESULTS!!

GOLD: rosacotton and gallavich (245)
SILVER: sbstien, Mentalopes, invisiblespiral, bea, aero (240)
BRONZE: SashaJuliaSpins, GF2445 and bellflower (235)

Congrats to the medalists!

Onward to NHK!

What?! I actually did well in my predictions for once? Wonder of wonders...

Great job, Mrs. P, Snow63, and FSGMT for scoring TEB!! :dance:

 

[Mrs. P]

What?! I actually did well in my predictions for once? Wonder of wonders...

Great job, Mrs. P, Snow63, and FSGMT for scoring TEB!! :dance:

Congrats for breaking 1,000 overall as well!