2014 Nebelhorn Trophy

[StitchMonkey]

”To have longevity in this sport, you have to train smart and not take shortcuts..." Jason

. . . or become a cyborg, not everyone wants to be a cyborg.

 

[enlight78]

I think the experiment kinda worked, at least the scores closer reflect what happen on the ice

 

[gmyers]

Evan won over Plushy when the quads were not high rewarded as they are now aday. Rules change all the time. The way I see it now, unless ISU issued some rule about quad limits for men, there are guys who are going for 4 quads a long (hello Russian men).

About no quad... Teb 2013 where Hanyu failed 2 quads, his TES was 87.28, and Jason's was 78.20. And the judges gave them the same PCS there.

If his Triple Axels were better his name wouldn't be Patrick Chan. Also, Jason's 3As are a tad tight, and on a bad day, UR (or at least look like it). Fernandez has major stamina issues because he tries THREE quads. There's people doing TWO in the SP alone.

You're putting words in my mouth. I'm only comparing what is known about the competitors at this point. Jason can do amazing, flawless programs, and I will clap and cheer to the high heavens, but until he has a quad, his only shot of ever winning is in the mold of Buttle/Lysacek, and that mold is very hard to follow. Maybe a bronze, if he's perfect.

Also, you're forgetting that Hanyu's OTHER jumps are better than Jason's. Fernandez's jumps are massive too. I'm only saying he needs the quad because it's the truth and because I want him to win a Worlds. It's going to be damn near impossible without one for the foreseeable future.

Again, the point value for quads had increased since 2010. It's a different system that gives lots of points to quads, and even more to those that are landed.

I know things have changed a lot. I was very happy with the changes. But the extraordinary Brown success is an example of how one jump doesn't dictate results at all and quads under any system can be outscored and made irrelevent in skating. Browns going to have this big win and there will be not one attempted quad for him while all others are trying them and it just an example. So It looks like the only people who could prevent Brown winning worlds is Chan or Hanyu and maybe Fernandez.

 

[ice coverage]

So. . . what's up with the no explanation for the rule 709 deduction until after the free? Is this normal? A rule? Has anyone had any fun theorizing what the story is?

Maybe the following revised parts of Rule 709 are unfamiliar to the dancers?? The source of the excerpt below is page 3 of:

ISU Communication No. 1875
Ice Dance
I. Various Changes in the General Regulations, Special Regulations and Technical Rules Accepted by the 55th ISU Congress
http://static.isu.org/media/139539/1875-id-post-congress-2014.pdf (Jun 24, 2014)​

6. Separations and stops - choreography restrictions

Short Dance – Rule 709 (former Rule 609), paragraphs 1.g) and h)

g) Partners must not separate except to change hold or to perform Required Elements requiring a separation, Turns as transitional elements and moves during the permitted stops. The distance between partners during such separations should not exceed two arms lengths. Change of hold and Turns as transitional elements must not exceed the duration of one measure of music.
Separations at the beginning and/or end of the program may be up to 10 seconds in duration without restrictions on the distance of the separation;

h) After the clock is started with the first movement, the Couple must not remain in one place for more than 10 seconds. During the program up to two (2) full stops in addition to stops required in Required Elements are permitted (duration must not exceed 5 seconds each) unless otherwise specified in an ISU Communication.
​

 

[Interspectator]

I love Jason Brown. He really sold his program and it was clean...but I much prefer Brezina's program and music this year.
I agree with the standings though. Jason Brown delivered the SP and it was polished. Good for him. :yay:

I thought Brezina's program and music fitted him so well and it was great to watch. I hope he improves his consistency with this and can win some medals this year.

And since we are having a quad- no quad debate, Jason should put it in when he feels it is ready and ONLY then.
His jumps have never been what has drawn me to him anyway. His transitions in and out of the jumps are great, interesting and wonderful, but it would look the same if it was a triple or a quad. Jason's jumps themselves are passable, but I don't think I'd be especially impressed with his quad...but who knows?

 

[essence_of_soy]

He did look cautious on this skate. And when it was over he looked as relived as a teenager holding a negative home pregnancy tests.

OMG....hahahaha....That has to be the quote of the decade.

 

[karne]

I know things have changed a lot. I was very happy with the changes. But the extraordinary Brown success is an example of how one jump doesn't dictate results at all and quads under any system can be outscored and made irrelevent in skating. Browns going to have this big win and there will be not one attempted quad for him while all others are trying them and it just an example. So It looks like the only people who could prevent Brown winning worlds is Chan or Hanyu and maybe Fernandez.

And nor should one jump dictate results. What a disaster that would be.

Jason will have skated clean and well. Have you forgotten that the spins and footwork are also part of the TES score?

You even assume Jason will make the Worlds team. He's facing some pretty stiff competition at home. Max's SP score at SLC was only five points lower than this one and that was with two mistakes on the quad and a fall. If he goes clean, he's 85+ for sure (probably should be 90+ since the judges have a penchant for giving out ludicrous scores for one-quad SPs now). I watched Joshua's new SP the other day and it's simply stunning - AND he's going to put in the quad. If he hits that, he's 85-90 as well. And even though you never know which Abbott will turn up, when he does turn up, he scores big. If Ricky gets it together this year - Ricky outscored Jason in the SP at Nationals. Adam, what can he do? He beat Jason at SkAm last year (where Jason scored comparably to here in the SP).

So it's absolutely not a given that Jason would even make the US Worlds team, let alone podium there.

 

[StitchMonkey]

Maybe the following revised parts of Rule 709 are unfamiliar to the dancers?? The source of the excerpt below is page 3 of:

ISU Communication No. 1875
Ice Dance
I. Various Changes in the General Regulations, Special Regulations and Technical Rules Accepted by the 55th ISU Congress
http://static.isu.org/media/139539/1875-id-post-congress-2014.pdf (Jun 24, 2014)​

Good theory. Took a screen shot, if you go by bodies. . . they are more than two arms apart, not sure if they go from finger tips. . .but even then. Then again, not sure if this counts as the stuff it talks about or is allowed. It is also one example.

 

[Sandpiper]

I love Jason Brown. He really sold his program and it was clean...but I much prefer Brezina's program and music this year.
I agree with the standings though. Jason Brown delivered the SP and it was polished. Good for him. :yay:

I thought Brezina's program and music fitted him so well and it was great to watch. I hope he improves his consistency with this and can win some medals this year.

I would agree with this. I really enjoyed Brezina's SP! I hope he's able to skate it cleanly in the future.

But Jason deserved the first place, since he skated his SP cleanly, with great energy, and wove that step sequence seamlessly into his program. Even though I'm a Song of Ice and Fire fan. Even though I dislike jazz music and the stream's audio hurt my ears. Even though every time I see suspenders, I'm reminded of Abzal Rakimgaliev's wardrobe malfunction at the Olympics.

I'm fully on the pro-quad side, but only when it's paired with a clean program. Jason placing first in the SP at a little competition like this (where no one else skated cleanly) isn't the death of the quad. Clean skate with quad > clean skate without quad > messy skate with quad. I'd rather Jason adds the quad when he's ready rather than falling on it all season.

As for the rest: Another jumping disaster from Liam Firus. :disapp: Not sure about Voronov's program. He looked kinda... stiff, and the music seemed too fast and dramatic for him. Nice SP from Menshov! It took me a while to get into it due to the audio quality, but I can see it developing into something good.

 

[Mrs. P]

Quick score analysis from yours truly: Top 5 men.

BV
Brezina 40.94
Brown 37.50
Balde 36.83
Menshov 33.83
Voronov 31.91

+GOE
Brown 6.00
Voronov 3.63
Brezina 2.33
Meshnov 2.27
Balde 0.40

Jumps
Brezina 29.17 (BV 29.34; GOE: -0.17)
Brown 27.50 (BV: 24.50; GOE: 3.00)
Meshnov 23.00 (BV: 22.23; GOE: 0.77)
Balde 20.96 (BV: 23.73; GOE: -2.77)
Voronov 19.81 (BV: 20.01; GOE: -0.20)

Non-jumps
Balde 16.27 (BV: 13.1; GOE 3.17)
Brown 16.00 (BV: 13.00; GOE 3.00)
Voronov 14.73 (BV: 11.9; GOE 2.83)
Brezina 14.10 (BV: 11.6; GOE 2.50)
Meshnov 13.1 (BV: 11.6; GOE 1.5)

 

[hippomoomin]

I like Brezina new SP, the music and choreography. He does look like a new person, except when he does his jumps---awkward takeoff as he always does, which is very much prone to mistake.

 

[Meoima]

. . . or become a cyborg, not everyone wants to be a cyborg.

yeah, there's that way as well. But please be easy on Plushy. I think after the latest surgery he has taken all cyborg part out of his body.
But maybe Yagudin and his hip have another thing to say.

 

[StitchMonkey]

yeah, there's that way as well. But please be easy on Plushy. I think after the latest surgery he has taken all cyborg part out of his body.
But maybe Yagudin and his hip have another thing to say.

Hey, I never said being a cyborg was a bad thing. I love sci-fi. Cyborg it up! I love marvels of modern medicine!

 

[Meoima]

I know things have changed a lot. I was very happy with the changes. But the extraordinary Brown success is an example of how one jump doesn't dictate results at all and quads under any system can be outscored and made irrelevent in skating. Browns going to have this big win and there will be not one attempted quad for him while all others are trying them and it just an example. So It looks like the only people who could prevent Brown winning worlds is Chan or Hanyu and maybe Fernandez.

well, I think you forgot the simple math set up. PCS can only help you to a certain point. Other top guys are gonna have the same PCS as you, but other than that their TES is going to be much higher. And that's why they win. And the list might be longer than just Javi, Hanyu or Chan. Don't forget Machida, Denis Ten, Kozuka, Kovtun... Their scores are all on the list of highest scores in both TES and PCS at the moment. If all these guys compete at worlds, and even if it's a wolrd where every one does terrible as London or Sochi, at least 3 of these top guys still have comparablely high TES. You can't expect all the top 7 to do poorly in one competition at the same time. It's not realistic.

 

[Mrs. P]

This is kind of fun... I just noticed the on-demand videos have view counts.

Top 10 (all disciplines)

Tarasova/Morozov SP 2,444
Weaver/Poje SD 2,337
Brown SP 2,327
Kavaguti/Smirnov SP 2,207
Takahashi/Kihara SP 1,636
Zhiganshina/Gazsi SD 1,563
Chock/Bates SD 1,375
Hino SP 984
Hawayek Baker SD 960
Scimeca/Knierim SP 903


SD:
Weaver/Poje SD 2,337
Zhiganshina/Gazsi SD 1,563
Chock/Bates SD 1,375
Hawayek/Baker SD 960
Kim/Minov SD 646
Bonacori/Fioretti SD 563
Jones/Sharpe SD 514
Paradis/Ouellette 489
Mansour/Ceska SD 475
Min/Koleto SD 404
Reed/Rogov SD 335

Pairs SP
Tarasova/Morozov 2,455
Kavaguti/Smirnov 2,207
Takahashi/Kihara 1,636
Scimeca/Knierim 903
James/Cipres 599
Aaron/Settlage 522
Grenier/Deschamps 459
Stephens/Dodds 435
Paliakova/Bochkov 325
Fancy/Doyadji 305

Men SP
Brown 2,327
Hino 984
Brezina 915
Menshov 765
Voronov 660
Balde 654
Johnson 507
Firus 354
Bychenko 201
Samohin 175
Bjelde 137
Fentz 129
Dobbs 114

 

[koatcue]

Hi! Do you know when the ladies start?

 

[Alex D]

Hi! Do you know when the ladies start?

They were rescheduled to 10.45 CET.

Liza and Mariah are in 1 so tune in early.

 

[samson]

so ladies start in just over an hour yes?

 

[HanDomi]

Gmyers please step on earth, please. I know everyone has their own favourites, but there are limits of fantasy. He don't have any chance at all without a quad vs clean guys from top with quads. Even vs Hanyu without a quad, because his other jumps are bigger and better(beside flip edge ), and let's face it Hanyu SS are better overall.
You coming from point that the only thing Jason is missing is quad, and everything other he is the best over the rest. Yes, he is great dancer but there are other factors in SS and PCS overall. I don't see judges giving him too much higher PCS than last season without upping technical arsenal and delivering it


You saying that he could win olympics ? Are you kidding me ? Even with bad free skates from Hanyu and Chan he would have need a score of 194 to overtake Hanyu. How on earth that would have been possible ?



And to be clear I like Jason's skating and I would like to see him getting quads, because I am curious how he will handle program with quads

 

[matmuh]

so ladies start in just over an hour yes?

55 mins from now