2017-18 State of U.S. Ladies Skating

[SnowWhite]

But Mirai just beat Satako and Honga at NHK. Based on the previous GP, it doesn't look like Japan will challenge for a ladies spot either.

Yes, but Satoko and Rika Hongo aren't the strongest Japanese ladies this season. Wakaba especially has been very good this season. And Mai had a pretty strong score at CoC even though she was off the podium. I'm not saying that an American lady couldn't beat them, but what happened at NHK doesn't tell us that.

 

[Moxiejan]

Good to see someone pushing the envelope, although ultimately I have to ask whether it is netting her any real points advantage. Kinda hard to see any at this point but more power to her regardless.

The 3A does create a buzz that puts her more "in the conversation" than she would be as one of the many skaters with a history of mid-level placements. No, it's not giving her a points advantage at the moment. But if she keeps landing it, watch the UR calls on her other jumps get a bit less picky & the PCS go up as well. Yes, a bump from reputation scoring.

 

[Seren]

Yes, but Satoko and Rika Hongo aren't the strongest Japanese ladies this season. Wakaba especially has been very good this season. And Mai had a pretty strong score at CoC even though she was off the podium. I'm not saying that an American lady couldn't beat them, but what happened at NHK doesn't tell us that.

If Wakaba skates like she did last weekend she should beat a clean Ashley. Her programs are original and her tech is much higher.

Ashley's problem right now (and I say this as someone who really likes Ashley) is that she needs other skaters to make mistakes while at the same time getting her rotation in and nailing her PCS. It will be interesting to see how she does at SA.

 

[Ender]

Wagner has good chance to get silver or win SA if she stays on her feet.

 

[frida80]

Wagner has good chance to get silver or win SA if she stays on her feet.

Ashley needs to win if she wants to go to the GPF. With a silver, she loses the tie breaker with Wakaba.

 

[R.D.]

Ashley needs to win if she wants to go to the GPF. With a silver, she loses the tie breaker with Wakaba.

If true, the odds are not in her favor. But for someone like Wagner, overcoming stiff odds shouldn't be a deterrent. IF she brings back the second 3-3 in the FS and does her absolute best, working the home crowd, she's got a shot.

 

[frida80]

If true, the odds are not in her favor. But for someone like Wagner, overcoming stiff odds shouldn't be a deterrent. IF she brings back the second 3-3 in the FS and does her absolute best, working the home crowd, she's got a shot.

Ashley loves to be an underdog. If she’s challenged, she’ll do her best to rise to the occasion. Her grit is amazing.

 

[mrrice]

Ashley loves to be an underdog. If she’s challenged, she’ll do her best to rise to the occasion. Her grit is amazing.

This is completely true.....She has talked about it in her interviews. It's one of the reasons you can never count her out. My question is.....Other than Ashley, does any US woman have a chance to make the final?? I know this is about the ladies but, I think Nathan, Max, and hopefully Adam, all have a chance to make the final. Is that still the case??

 

[frida80]

This is completely true.....She has talked about it in her interviews. It's one of the reasons you can never count her out. My question is.....Other than Ashley, does any US woman have a chance to make the final?? I know this is about the ladies but, I think Nathan, Max, and hopefully Adam, all have a chance to make the final. Is that still the case??

No other US lady has a chance, unfortunately. Only Ashley, Karen, Mirai, and Mariah had two scheduled GP events. In a field this fight, you have to at least have one bronze and a gold to get into the final. Only Ashley has gotten a medal. Karen doesn’t have enough points even if she wins SA. It’s unfortunate.

 

[chuckm]

Ashley has got to up her game quite a bit---the 183.94 she scored at SC won't put her on the SA podium, because she has some tough competition:

Polina Tsurskaya scored 210.19 at NHK with two clean programs; she doesn't flutz, lip or UR and her jumps are huge.
Gabrielle Daleman won the SP at CoC then had a rough FS, and will be looking for redemption at SA; but even with her disappointing finish, she still scored 196.83.
Kaori Sakamoto made her senior debut at CoR and finished a respectable 5th, scoring 194. She will have had 5 weeks to hone her programs for SA.

As for Ashley making the final, here's how I see it:

Already in the Final:
30 MEDVEDEVA
26 KOSTNER

At TDF you have Zagitova 15, Osmond 15, Sotskova 13 and Mihara 9

IMO, it will be 1. Zag 2. Os 3. Sot or Mihara

So:

30 Medvedeva
30 Zagitova
28 Osmond
26 Kostner


On the bubble:

Higuchi 24 419.69
Sotskova 24 192.52+TDF score (if Mihara wins bronze, she has only 20 points)


IMO, Tsurskaya will win SA, giving her 26 points

30 Medvedeva
30 Zagitova
28 Osmond
26 Kostner
26 Tsurskaya

On the bubble:

Higuchi 24 419.69
Sotskova 24 192.52+TDF score

For Wagner to make the final, she would have to beat Tsurskaya and win at SA, or finish second with a score of 235.76 or better.
Tsurskaya could finish 2nd and make the final if she scored 209.51 or better (and she did that at NHK).
I just don't see Wagner beating Tsurskaya.

So I see the finalists as being

30 Medvedeva
30 Zagitova
28 Osmond
26 Kostner
26 Tsurskaya
24 Higuchi

 

[artsciboy]

I'm going to send out positive vibes to Ashley. She faced the most brutal tech panel at Skate Canada and still landed on the podium. Those harsh calls at Skate Canada for nearly every lady all the more stresses that you simply can't compare scores from competition to competition. If Ashley ups the ante at Skate America - and by that, I mean that she rotates and lands her planned content and gets the right spin/footwork levels (as she's equal to every lady out there whose not doing the 3axel in terms of planned content) - sky's the limit for her.

 

[Celine]

If you were the coach/strategist for the US Team, for the team event at the Olympics. What would be your best bet strategy with the US ladies? Split up the short and long amongst two athletes? Or try to count on one (e.g., Ashley as the "veteran") to handle the pressure, and deliver two consistent enough programs?

 

[Spirals for Miles]

If you were the coach/strategist for the US Team, for the team event at the Olympics. What would be your best bet strategy with the US ladies? Split up the short and long amongst two athletes? Or try to count on one (e.g., Ashley as the "veteran") to handle the pressure, and deliver two consistent enough programs?

I'd give Ashley the short and Mirai the long.
Ashley's UR issues don't seem to occur as much in the short. Maybe it's a stamina thing?
Mirai seems to do better in frees anyway and that gives her more time to IMPRESS with her 3A and other triples.

 

[MRani]

Ashley will have a much friendlier tech panel at SA, and she does tend to bring out her best performances at home. Her PB is around 215 if I remember correctly, although that was 2 seasons ago and she hasn’t shown similar form since. I think Polina’s definitely the favorite to win SA and there are other tough competitors there too, but I wouldn’t completely count out Ashley’s ability to come from behind and shock people.

 

[R.D.]

If you were the coach/strategist for the US Team, for the team event at the Olympics. What would be your best bet strategy with the US ladies? Split up the short and long amongst two athletes? Or try to count on one (e.g., Ashley as the "veteran") to handle the pressure, and deliver two consistent enough programs?

Still too early to say, but based on what has happened SO FAR:

SP - K. Chen
FS - A. Wagner

 

[Spirals for Miles]

I'm going to send out positive vibes to Ashley. She faced the most brutal tech panel at Skate Canada and still landed on the podium. Those harsh calls at Skate Canada for nearly every lady all the more stresses that you simply can't compare scores from competition to competition. If Ashley ups the ante at Skate America - and by that, I mean that she rotates and lands her planned content and gets the right spin/footwork levels (as she's equal to every lady out there whose not doing the 3axel in terms of planned content) - sky's the limit for her.

Yes, she faced the most brutal panel.
But she was ranked 7th in the short and 4th in the free. Not a medal color at all. The only reason that she medaled is because others had one terrible program, like Marin and Anna.

And she's not equal to every lady in terms of planned content.
Take Zagitova, who does all her jumps in the second half, most with rippons, and repeats lutz and flip.
And you're going to tell me that Ashley, who does many of her jumps in the first half, doesn't really do arm variations, and repeats flip and loop, has the same planned content?
Zagitova also does a 3Lz-3Lo combo which Ashley only did once, at 2008 nationals. Ashley's been doing 3F-3T for a while, which is what Zhenya does. But Zhenya has much harder content for the rest of the program.

 

[artsciboy]

Yes, she faced the most brutal panel.
But she was ranked 7th in the short and 4th in the free. Not a medal color at all. The only reason that she medaled is because others had one terrible program, like Marin and Anna.

And she's not equal to every lady in terms of planned content.
Take Zagitova, who does all her jumps in the second half, most with rippons, and repeats lutz and flip.
And you're going to tell me that Ashley, who does many of her jumps in the first half, doesn't really do arm variations, and repeats flip and loop, has the same planned content?
Zagitova also does a 3Lz-3Lo combo which Ashley only did once, at 2008 nationals. Ashley's been doing 3F-3T for a while, which is what Zhenya does. But Zhenya has much harder content for the rest of the program.

Please do your research - Ashley's planned content is comparable to Polina T's. Ashley's BV is 62.44 versus Polina's of 63.10. The difference is negligible and will come down to GOE. Before you get hyped up about how much more front loaded Ashley's program is to Polina's - sure, Polina does 2 jumping passes before the bonus hits but uses up 3 triples in the process. Ashley does 3 jumping passes but only uses 2 triples and 2 double axels. In the back half Ashley has 5 triples planned versus Polina's 4. While you seem to like those arm variations, they are overused in the eyes of many. That said, even Ashley did some Rippons at Skate Canada...

 

[MRani]

Yes, she faced the most brutal panel.
But she was ranked 7th in the short and 4th in the free. Not a medal color at all. The only reason that she medaled is because others had one terrible program, like Marin and Anna.

And she's not equal to every lady in terms of planned content.
Take Zagitova, who does all her jumps in the second half, most with rippons, and repeats lutz and flip.
And you're going to tell me that Ashley, who does many of her jumps in the first half, doesn't really do arm variations, and repeats flip and loop, has the same planned content?
Zagitova also does a 3Lz-3Lo combo which Ashley only did once, at 2008 nationals. Ashley's been doing 3F-3T for a while, which is what Zhenya does. But Zhenya has much harder content for the rest of the program.

There’s something to be said about NOT having a meltdown in one segment of the competition and staying in podium contention. Ashley earned her bronze at SC by performing better than her competitors. Does she need to be better at SA than she was there? Absolutely. But I don’t like this attitude people adopt when someone unexpectedly medals in a competition where favorites had major mistakes. That’s how competition is supposed to work. Those with the least mistakes get medals.

Yes, Evgenia and Alina’s TES is out of her reach even on her best day. But she doesn’t need to defeat either of those girls to medal at SA.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

For Wagner to make the final, she would have to beat Tsurskaya and win at SA, or finish second with a score of 235.76 or better.
Tsurskaya could finish 2nd and make the final if she scored 209.51 or better (and she did that at NHK).
I just don't see Wagner beating Tsurskaya.

I could see Polina winning SA easily, but I don't know how consistent she is just yet. She skated great at NHK, but I think she was a little shakier in some of the Russian events in the last month. I would think in a US event, Ashley would have a huge PCS margin over Polina, so if Wagner can rotate most of her jumps and not give up levels on her spins it could be close.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

If you were the coach/strategist for the US Team, for the team event at the Olympics. What would be your best bet strategy with the US ladies? Split up the short and long amongst two athletes? Or try to count on one (e.g., Ashley as the "veteran") to handle the pressure, and deliver two consistent enough programs?

We truly have no idea who will be on the team at this point. Mirai could be a good choice for the SP because she doesn't do a 2A. Karen is capable of skating a great LP. However, it's entirely possible that neither make it to the Olympics.