2017-18 State of U.S. Ladies Skating

[Spirals for Miles]

A few questions to think about...

1. If Mirai is third and Karen is fourth, will we see a repeat of 2014?
2. If Ashley is third and Karen is fourth, will we see a repeat of 2014?
3. If Mirai is third and Ashley is fourth, will we see an identical repeat of 2014?
4. What placement does each lady need to guarantee herself a spot?

My answers:
1. I don't think so. Mirai had a good 4CC showing last year and a better GP showing than Karen this year, so that kind of cancels out Karen's 4th place at worlds and her national title.
2. No. Ashley has such a big reputation at this point that Karen's good season last year won't top that.
3. It shouldn't, in my opinion. Both of them had similar seasons last year (although Mirai medaled at 4CC) and Ashley, although she medaled at a GP this year, did so with ten points less than Mirai's GP best from this year, and then withdrew from SkAm because of that nasty infection thing.
4. Bradie: 1 or 2
Mirai: 1 or 2
Ashley: 1, 2, or 3
Karen: 1
Mariah: 1
Everyone else: 1 by a large margin

 

[Nathan13]

A few questions to think about...

1. If Mirai is third and Karen is fourth, will we see a repeat of 2014?
2. If Ashley is third and Karen is fourth, will we see a repeat of 2014?
3. If Mirai is third and Ashley is fourth, will we see an identical repeat of 2014?
4. What placement does each lady need to guarantee herself a spot?

My answers:
1. I don't think so. Mirai had a good 4CC showing last year and a better GP showing than Karen this year, so that kind of cancels out Karen's 4th place at worlds and her national title.
2. No. Ashley has such a big reputation at this point that Karen's good season last year won't top that.
3. It shouldn't, in my opinion. Both of them had similar seasons last year (although Mirai medaled at 4CC) and Ashley, although she medaled at a GP this year, did so with ten points less than Mirai's GP best from this year, and then withdrew from SkAm because of that nasty infection thing.
4. Bradie: 1 or 2
Mirai: 1 or 2
Ashley: 1, 2, or 3
Karen: 1
Mariah: 1
Everyone else: 1 by a large margin

Re: #4
IMO, the only skaters that would be in danger of medalling and not making the team would be any junior in the top 3, or, in the event that Ashley places 4th (maybe 5th, probably not), the bronze medalist in that situation, unless it was Karen or probably Mirai and Bradie. I think pretty much any medal would suffice for most of the top ladies.

 

[Miss Ice]

A few questions to think about...

1. If Mirai is third and Karen is fourth, will we see a repeat of 2014?
2. If Ashley is third and Karen is fourth, will we see a repeat of 2014?
3. If Mirai is third and Ashley is fourth, will we see an identical repeat of 2014?
4. What placement does each lady need to guarantee herself a spot?

1. No.
2. No.
3. No.

I really think the USFSA is in a corner right now. After JSF has "fair and square" chosen Kaori and Satoko, doing anymore 2014 shenanigans will just look bad. And, they already saw what comes out of it. Unless a total dark horse gets 3rd (such as Tennell or Bell) and Mirai or Ashley are 4th, I do NOT see 2014 repeating.

 

[chuckm]

1. 4CC placement, no matter how good, will never balance out either a top 4 at Worlds or a National Championship, let alone both together.
As for the GP, Mirai's 9th place at CoR was lower than either of Karen's GP placements.

2. Anyone's reputation is as good as their most recent results. Ashley's last year wasn't so good, while Karen's last year was excellent; this year, neither lady is looking too good so far. If any one has a reputation edge, it is Karen. But if Ashley comes out ahead at Nationals, IMO she will stay ahead.

3. That depends on several factors, including the closeness of the results, the number of Mirai's URs vs. Ashley's, and which skater performed better.

4. That question can't be answered without knowing the placement of the other skaters.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

4. What placement does each lady need to guarantee herself a spot?

I really think a medal, and only a medal, will do it. The two skaters who came into this year with marginally better results (Ashley and Karen) have not been good this season. With Ashley, she will have a 10+ point PCS advantage over most of the field, and will probably have any close rotation or edge calls ruled in her favor, so any surprises that finish ahead of her will have skated far better than her technically at Nationals. With Karen, I don't think she has beaten any of the top contenders this season, so it is likely that anyone who medals will have beaten her multiple times this season, while also having not lost a head-to-head. Frankly, everyone except Bradie has competed below their best this season, so no one deserves special treatment. I don't even think Bradie could make the team without a podium finish, as she has never medaled at Nationals. Having said that, USFSA/NBC/sponsors have a vested interest in certain athletes making the team (as RD has pointed out before) so it wouldn't surprise me to see a 4th place Ashley get send for her contributions the last several years, with the USFSA totally ignoring the specific body-of-work criteria it laid out.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Unless a total dark horse gets 3rd (such as Tennell or Bell) and Mirai or Ashley are 4th, I do NOT see 2014 repeating.

Tennell is, arguably, the title favorite. There is no way Mirai in 4th (or even Ashley in 4th) would bump her.

 

[ice coverage]

A few questions to think about...

1. If Mirai is third and Karen is fourth, will we see a repeat of 2014? ...

My answers:
1. I don't think so. Mirai had a good 4CC showing last year and a better GP showing than Karen this year, so that kind of cancels out Karen's 4th place at worlds and her national title. ....

1. 4CC placement, no matter how good, will never balance out either a top 4 at Worlds or a National Championship, let alone both together. ...

SfM was referring to Karen's gold at 2017 Nats, which is a Tier 3 comp.
And to Mirai's bronze at 2017 Four Continents, which is a Tier 2 comp.

Unlike chuckm, I think it is very possible that a Tier 2 bronze would be worth at least as much as a Tier 3 gold.

(But yes, I agree that Karen's 4th place at 2017 Worlds (a Tier 1 comp) would be worth more than a Tier 2 bronze.)

... As for the GP, Mirai's 9th place at CoR was lower than either of Karen's GP placements. ...

And Mirai's 4th place at NHK was higher than either of Karen's GP placements.

 

[tosca]

1. 4CC placement, no matter how good, will never balance out either a top 4 at Worlds or a National Championship, let alone both together.
As for the GP, Mirai's 9th place at CoR was lower than either of Karen's GP placements.

2. Anyone's reputation is as good as their most recent results. Ashley's last year wasn't so good, while Karen's last year was excellent; this year, neither lady is looking too good so far. If any one has a reputation edge, it is Karen. But if Ashley comes out ahead at Nationals, IMO she will stay ahead.

3. That depends on several factors, including the closeness of the results, the number of Mirai's URs vs. Ashley's, and which skater performed better.

4. That question can't be answered without knowing the placement of the other skaters.

But both of Mirai's lowest score was better than Karen's lowest score. Even Karen's highest scores was not much better than Mirai's lowest score (only +4.55pts). See below as reference:

1st Grand Prix
Karen Chen - Skate Canada - 170.4, 7th
Mirai Nagasu - Rostelecom Cup - 178.25 9th

2nd Grand Prix
Karen Chen - Skate America - 182.8, 8th
Mirai Nagasu - NHK Trophy - 194.46, 4th

In addition - in there head to heads (one being a senior b and the other being a non-ISU competition) Mirai beat Karen in both. But agreed on everything

 

[schizoanalyst]

They should just de-emphasize Nationals. The criteria should primarily be body of work. Nationals is just another competition and shouldn’t be treated any different and, frankly, should be regarded as less important than performance in a GP event. I mean it was sad for Nagasu, but USF made the right call going with Wagner in ’14 - she scored 193+ at the Olympics and 13-14 era Nagasu would’ve never approached that score. Also, the medals shouldn’t matter but the scores - if someone like Amber Glenn wins 3rd over Nagasu by 0.5 points, Nagasu should go.

With that said - here’s how I see that it *should go* selection wise, not necessary how it will go.

I think Ashley Wagner’s spot should be locked down unless her Nationals performance is a disaster (I don’t consider a close 4th/5th finish a disaster - it depends on the score differentials). She is realistically the only one that has even a remotely realistic chance of medalling (I emphasize remote) or even top 5 - though both scenarios will require mistakes from others while she will have to deliver her 2016 Worlds performance. Wagner is weird and I have no idea which Ashley will show up at the Olympics, but you have to give her a shot to have the night - she’s the only American who possibly could

Bradie Tennell’s spot should be close to locked because of her consistency and her relatively high scores this season along with the GP Bronze, particularly when they were awarded to her as a newbie to the international scene with minimal USF support. For me, it would require a very bad Nationals performance (again, a 4th finish is not very bad to me - it depends on the score differential)

The third spot should be given preference to Nagasu based on her international results and the possibility she could pull off a great skate with 2 Triple Axels! Mariah Bell or Karen Chen would have to beat Nagasu by a decent margin to qualify over her imo. I would've given Karen Chens 4th finish at 17 Worlds more weight had she not been a complete disaster this season.

 

[chuckm]

I wouldn't place that much importance on Nagasu's 3A. Few have been ratified as completely rotated by international tech teams at a competition not on home ice. Of her four GP attempts, 3 were UR and the one that was rotated was landed on two feet, and given -GOE. What is concerning is Mirai's void when it comes to connecting to her music--that is a major deficit in her performance skills. Maybe that is why she hasn't won a GP medal since 2013, but has had several 4th and 5th place finishes. Even when she lands her jumps, she never gets the PCS scores that would boost her onto the podium.

OTOH, when Karen does get it together technically, she does have the pizzazz to get high PCS scores from the judges. She didn't do well in the GP because she kept changing her programs; she will have been practicing just one SP and FS in the weeks since SA, so both should be considerably more stable.

 

[jenaj]

SfM was referring to Karen's gold at 2017 Nats, which is a Tier 3 comp.
And to Mirai's bronze at 2017 Four Continents, which is a Tier 2 comp.

Unlike chuckm, I think it is very possible that a Tier 2 bronze would be worth at least as much as a Tier 3 gold.

(But yes, I agree that Karen's 4th place at 2017 Worlds (a Tier 1 comp) would be worth more than a Tier 2 bronze.)



And Mirai's 4th place at NHK was higher than either of Karen's GP placements.

Karen's finish at Worlds was impressive but there are a couple of things to consider. Sostkova had a rare bad performance. Since then, she has been rock solid. Pogorilaya imploded. Miyahara wasn't there. Ashley faltered and Mariah Bell was a non-issue. Higuchi did poorly for Japan and Mihara lost because of the short program. Karen was lucky and so were the US ladies to get three spots. And in my opinion the only reason Mirai didn't get bronze at NHK was the outrageous over-scoring of Carolina Kostner. Caro's layback scored nearly a point higher than Mirai's, with mostly +3 GOE to Mirai's +2s. And the rest of her GOEs were similarly inflated.

 

[schizoanalyst]

Karen's finish at Worlds was impressive but there are a couple of things to consider. Sostkova had a rare bad performance. Since then, she has been rock solid. Pogorilaya imploded. Miyahara wasn't there. Ashley faltered and Mariah Bell was a non-issue. Higuchi did poorly for Japan and Mihara lost because of the short program. Karen was lucky and so were the US ladies to get three spots.

That is a true, but that’s why scoring is more important. Her score was actually quite good for what she did! Chen scored 199.29, a respectable score, with an under-rotated fall on a lutz, a level 2 step sequence, and a 2A step out in the free skate without those issues she’d probably gotten ~137 in free and finished nearly at 207. Clean at the Olympics, 210+ would seem easily within reach.

The question is - can she even be close to clean? Even if she could get back to her a bit messy Worlds LP form she could probably pull >200 at Olympics and should be given the spot - but it’s unclear she gets to even this subpar form and she needs to show she is capable of even that in Nationals. If she could deliver the equivalent of her Worlds skate at Nationals, she should absolutely go, but she needs to be really on that night.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

SfM was referring to Karen's gold at 2017 Nats, which is a Tier 3 comp.
And to Mirai's bronze at 2017 Four Continents, which is a Tier 2 comp.

Unlike chuckm, I think it is very possible that a Tier 2 bronze would be worth at least as much as a Tier 3 gold.

(But yes, I agree that Karen's 4th place at 2017 Worlds (a Tier 1 comp) would be worth more than a Tier 2 bronze.)

And Mirai's 4th place at NHK was higher than either of Karen's GP placements.

The three medalists at Nationals will be the only skaters with Tier 1 medals. Three women have one Tier 2 bronze (Mirai, Ashley, Bradie). I think a Tier 1 bronze would trump any of those bronze medals.

 

[ice coverage]

The three medalists at Nationals will be the only skaters with Tier 1 medals. Three women have one Tier 2 bronze (Mirai, Ashley, Bradie). I think a Tier 1 bronze would trump any of those bronze medals.

Agreed re 2018 Nats medals, which are Tier 1 medals.

But the preceding discussion ensued because Spirals for Miles made a reference to Karen's 2017 national title (i.e., a Tier 3 gold medal) -- and its comparative worth (or non-worth) for 2018 OWG team selection. Which led chuckm to make a comment about the supposed relative worth of the 2017 Nats gold. And I disagreed with chuckm's comment.

 

[Figure 8's]

If Mirai or Ashley is the 4th place finisher and Bradie is 3rd, we could see some wyld stuff go down.

I sure hope not. I hope they stick with the 3 who medal. If they can't skate their best at Nationals, they have no business going to the Olympics. Plus Bradie has been far more consistent then either Mirai or Ashley.

 

[Figure 8's]

It is Ok to have your favorites but why do people constantly want to elevate Mirai to more than what she has accomplished. The argument that 4th place at NHK is better than 4th place at Worlds is a little ridicules. Karen surprised every one at Nationals last year and she may again this year. She has been under the radar this year but may be peaking for Nationals. Again I say may they all skate their best and may the best one win. We all have our favorites but that should not prevent you from wanting every one to do well.

 

[tosca]

It is Ok to have your favorites but why do people constantly want to elevate Mirai to more than what she has accomplished. The argument that 4th place at NHK is better than 4th place at Worlds is a little ridicules. Karen surprised every one at Nationals last year and she may again this year. She has been under the radar this year but may be peaking for Nationals. Again I say may they all skate their best and may the best one win. We all have our favorites but that should not prevent you from wanting every one to do well.

I think what people have been comparing is Mirai's 4CC Bronze vs. Karen's World's 4th which it looks like most people have agreed that the latter is more important. What people have also been discussion are both their GP performances as one person mentioned that Mirai's Rostelecom placement was worse than all of Karen's placements. Another person had stated that Mirai's NHK placement was better than both of Karen's placements. Karen also was on the up & up last year going into Nationals.
Also here are their scores .

But both of Mirai's lowest score was better than Karen's lowest score. Even Karen's highest scores was not much better than Mirai's lowest score (only +4.55pts). See below as reference:

1st Grand Prix
Karen Chen - Skate Canada - 170.4, 7th
Mirai Nagasu - Rostelecom Cup - 178.25 9th

2nd Grand Prix
Karen Chen - Skate America - 182.8, 8th
Mirai Nagasu - NHK Trophy - 194.46, 4th

In addition - in there head to heads (one being a senior b and the other being a non-ISU competition) Mirai beat Karen in both. But agreed on everything

Agreed that Karen surprised us last year (after a less than stellar grand prix performance) and could do it again this year... the ladies competition is the most unpredictable nationals

 

[Procrastinator]

I don't think there would be any basis to remove a medal-winning Bradie from the team. If Ashley is 4th, she would effectively be 0-2 against Bradie this season. If Mirai is 4th, none of her international results are good enough to bump Bradie; Mirai's best total score this season is behind two of Bradie's outings. However, I really think the USFSA would like to see Bradie win the title because it would mean a full season of strong performances, and allow the USFSA to assign her alone to skate for the women in the team event.

That is a true, but that’s why scoring is more important. Her score was actually quite good for what she did! Chen scored 199.29, a respectable score, with an under-rotated fall on a lutz, a level 2 step sequence, and a 2A step out in the free skate without those issues she’d probably gotten ~137 in free and finished nearly at 207. Clean at the Olympics, 210+ would seem easily within reach.

The question is - can she even be close to clean? Even if she could get back to her a bit messy Worlds LP form she could probably pull >200 at Olympics and should be given the spot - but it’s unclear she gets to even this subpar form and she needs to show she is capable of even that in Nationals. If she could deliver the equivalent of her Worlds skate at Nationals, she should absolutely go, but she needs to be really on that night.

Honestly, where we're at in the sport, barely breaking 200 isn't impressive anymore. We will likely see the entire Olympic podium go above 220-225, with a slight chance of all three medalists going 230+ (in a world where, say, Med/Zag/Osmond all nail both programs, which won't happen).

Even a 210 might not crack T8 depending on how people skate.

Honestly, USFS should be weighing recent competitions more heavily than more prestigious older ones. Ashley, for instance, is nowhere near her 2016 abilities yet, and Karen benefited from a confluence of horrific events (russian and japanese girls bombing) at Helsinki that is unlikely to happen again.

I can't imagine how pissed NBC producers are right now, knowing that no U.S. lady is likely to be in the final group (and there may even be some in the 2nd flight) and that they'll have to show more than an hour of condensed skating in primetime.

 

[FSLover17]

USFS youtube channel just posted a video on Karen Chen approaching nationals: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qfugDj4Rg3E
Also in this article it states that Ashley has been practising well so I have high hopes for her at Nationals!

 

[chuckm]

And in my opinion the only reason Mirai didn't get bronze at NHK was the outrageous over-scoring of Carolina Kostner. Caro's layback scored nearly a point higher than Mirai's, with mostly +3 GOE to Mirai's +2s. And the rest of her GOEs were similarly inflated.

Kostner beat Mirai not only on GOE, but also on PCS, and the PCS margin is even greater than the GOE. Carolina may not be a great technical skater, but she is a great performer, a skill Mirai seems to have lost since her last Olympic appearance.