2018-19 Men's Power Rankings

[Mrs. P]

I must put in my usual defense of Kovtun's skating: -It looks better live.

I agree. Grated he was NOT good when I saw him live at 2016 Worlds. But he's quite fast and he has a presence to him.

 

[Shanshani]

Boyang Jin skated a clean LP at Chinese Nationals (though I think he only did 2T instead of 3T on one of his combos). His SP was pretty good too, 4Lz, 4T+2T clean, but a two-foot on 3A. Think he deserves to go up on the power ranking a bit Take that, Boyang naysayers!

 

[rachno2]

^^^I intentionally waited for Boyang to have his redemption skates before posting a new power ranking

After French, Italian, Russian, Japanese and Chinese Nats:

1. Yuzuru Hanyu (-)
2. Nathan Chen (-)
3. Shoma Uno (-)—Fought through injury (again!) for a third national title. I really hope he does not return to competition too soon at 4CCs, because the men’s field is starting to look like a last man standing situation before the splatfests even begin
4. Junhwan Cha (-)
5. Michal Brezina (-)
6. Jason Brown (-)
7. Boyang Jin (+6)—A terrific Nationals performance seems to have confirmed that his faltering on the Grand Prix was due to low confidence and underpreparedness, as well as his usual slow start to the season. He may not have the PCS potential of the top three or Jason Brown, but when he lands his quads—and they are the best in the business—he is a threat for any title. I’ve placed him here with cautious optimism, but I expect him to break the top 5 come 4CCs.
8. Keegan Messing (-1)
9-11. The Russians (-)—There is no good reason why two of them shouldn’t finish in the top 10 at Worlds; indeed, all three of them could. Kovtun looks better than ever, but we have yet to see him at a high-stakes international competition. Nationals was great for Kolyada psychologically (zero pops, a hard-fought silver medal), but his health problems and lower BV make him even more of a question mark than usual. As the most stable internationally of the three, Samarin could be valuable, but at Nationals he showed old habits of not delivering when it matters.

Circling the top 10: Kevin Aymoz, Nam Nguyen, Matteo Rizzo / Daniel Grassl, Morisi Kvitelashvili

Others:

Kazuki Tomono—With Yuzuru out of 4CCs and Nathan’s participation unknown, he could challenge for a medal, though it won’t be easy with Shoma, Boyang, Junhwan and Jason. Even if he ~only~ places fifth, I think JSF should reconsider their Worlds selection. Has that been done before?

Javier Fernandez—He hasn’t had much time to prepare for Europeans, but he has a history of putting it all together when it matters (Exhibit A: OBM after a lackluster Grand Prix season). Brezina and Kovtun pose the biggest obstacles to that seventh title.

 

[TallyT]

Kazuki Tomono—With Yuzuru out of 4CCs and Nathan’s participation unknown, he could challenge for a medal, though it won’t be easy with Shoma, Boyang, Junhwan and Jason. Even if he ~only~ places fifth, I think JSF should reconsider their Worlds selection. Has that been done before?

I'm sure I read somewhere that Nathan himself said he's not going to 4CC...

 

[Metis]

I'm sure I read somewhere that Nathan himself said he's not going to 4CC...

I thought that was speculation based on the fact that he isn’t in 4CC promo material? Or has he actually confirmed?

 

[TallyT]

I thought that was speculation based on the fact that he isn’t in 4CC promo material? Or has he actually confirmed?

I can't be 100% sure (it would only have been mentioned in passing) but I got the impression it was him, and something to do with his studies and timetables... but I admit, I could be wrong. My memory, oh my memory...

Though even without him and Yuzu :sad21:, there are still 5 men I really really want on the podium so this is going to be fun.... not.

 

[oatmella]

Nathan hasn’t confirmed that he won’t be going to 4CC. But it doesn’t appear he will be there.

Boyang did great at Nationals - can totally see him repeating as 4CC champion!

 

[TallyT]

Nathan hasn’t confirmed that he won’t be going to 4CC. But it doesn’t appear he will be there.

Boyang did great at Nationals - can totally see him repeating as 4CC champion!

Thanks, I do apologise for getting it wrong.

 

[BillNeal]

In case anyone doesn't know, skatingscores.com is a useful site with a database of score information on skaters, from total scores to element by element scores, dating back to the 2016-2017 season. The 2018-19 Mens Top Chart can be used to rank the Men based on mean event total score, mean event TES, mean event PCS, mean jump score etc. You just need to click on the column headers to sort based on a category: http://skatingscores.com/top/men/tss/

So based on mean total scores, the current top 10 are:

1. 279.73 Hanyu
2. 278.19 Chen
3. 276.25 Uno
4. 271.59 Fernandez
5. 252.08 Cha
6. 247.20 Kolyada
7. 246.99 Brown
8. 244.78 Messing
9. 243.85 Samarin
10. 239.05 Brezina

The mean event total score is the average of ISU Challengers, GPs, and Championships that the skaters have participated in this season, weighted equally. Of course, the types and number of events vary between competitors (eg. Fernandez only has one score from Euros). It provides an alternative to looking at season's best.

 

[Rissa]

Nathan hasn’t confirmed that he won’t be going to 4CC. But it doesn’t appear he will be there.

Boyang did great at Nationals - can totally see him repeating as 4CC champion!

I guess this is official:

http://www.isuresults.com/events/cat03109040.htm

Nathan's not on the list, even as an alternate.

 

[Tavi...]

I guess this is official:

http://www.isuresults.com/events/cat03109040.htm

Nathan's not on the list, even as an alternate.

The team was announced last Sunday. My understanding is that Nathan opted out because of school. It wouldn’t make sense for him to be an alternate.

 

[DSQ]

The team was announced last Sunday. My understanding is that Nathan opted out because of school. It wouldn’t make sense for him to be an alternate.

Fair play. It might affect his world standing a little but we all knew that if he did university full time he’d have to drop some competitions.

 

[Interspectator]

With Nathan having a strong Nationals showing, (his skating, NOT his scores which were Nationals and therefore just for ranking) I'm considering Nathan as co-favorite for the top spot in power rankings.
Otherwise, in Europeans, what does it mean to have a superb SP and an LP disaster? Does that make the rank unmoving?
Samarin has definitely advanced a few spots. Makes a good case for himself to be sent to Worlds.

 

[Metis]

With Nathan having a strong Nationals showing, (his skating, NOT his scores which were Nationals and therefore just for ranking) I'm considering Nathan as co-favorite for the top spot in power rankings.
Otherwise, in Europeans, what does it mean to have a superb SP and an LP disaster? Does that make the rank unmoving?
Samarin has definitely advanced a few spots. Makes a good case for himself to be sent to Worlds.

I’d update my list now that Nationals for the relevant nations have concluded, but with 4CC so soon, I think I’ll wait for that extra data point (since half the list has had Nats + Euros and the other half is waiting for 4CC along with Nats).

Nathan is still #2 for me, as the scoring potential is there, but he needs a clean short at Worlds and that’s been a struggle this season. He’s demonstrated he can do one (not that I had any doubts) but it’s still a big enough concern that I’d keep him second and my top three as Hanyu, Nathan, and Shoma, respectively. (Shoma is another one who’s struggled to deliver a clean skate but did at Nats.) I don’t think there’s a big gap between anyone in the top three, but I wouldn’t put any of them in the same slot. 4CC is going to be fascinating.

 

[lurkz2]

I’d update my list now that Nationals for the relevant nations have concluded, but with 4CC so soon, I think I’ll wait for that extra data point (since half the list has had Nats + Euros and the other half is waiting for 4CC along with Nats).

Nathan is still #2 for me, as the scoring potential is there, but he needs a clean short at Worlds and that’s been a struggle this season. He’s demonstrated he can do one (not that I had any doubts) but it’s still a big enough concern that I’d keep him second and my top three as Hanyu, Nathan, and Shoma, respectively. (Shoma is another one who’s struggled to deliver a clean skate but did at Nats.) I don’t think there’s a big gap between anyone in the top three, but I wouldn’t put any of them in the same slot. 4CC is going to be fascinating.

Would 4cc affect the top 3 ranking since only Shoma will be there?

 

[Metis]

Would 4cc affect the top 3 ranking since only Shoma will be there?

I’m hoping that by 4CC, we’ll have heard more and/or have a better sense of how much time Nathan is going to have to prep for Worlds.

Boyang isn’t in the top 3 but he’s also relevant for 4CC. I’m really hoping Shoma is doing okay and doesn’t exacerbate any injury. But my logic on not updating yet is that the Russian men and others on the continent have two data points between relevant nationals + Euros, whereas Boyang and Shoma only have nationals, and the depth of field at nationals varies wildly.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

With Nathan having a strong Nationals showing, (his skating, NOT his scores which were Nationals and therefore just for ranking) I'm considering Nathan as co-favorite for the top spot in power rankings.
Otherwise, in Europeans, what does it mean to have a superb SP and an LP disaster? Does that make the rank unmoving?
Samarin has definitely advanced a few spots. Makes a good case for himself to be sent to Worlds.

Chen is definitely atop the rankings after his showing at US Nationals, especially with Hanyu as a question mark and Uno having yet to truly find his groove.

Even with the inflated Nationals scores (which were obviously ridiculous), that would have very likely pulled a 320 total internationally (or 300 if you're super salty), which is miles ahead of what any other skater has put out this season.

Assuming certain people are so shook that their immediate response is that the judges should drop his PCS 10 points, or give him +1's for GOE, and apply random URS on whatever jumps they feel like, there's no denying that was the strongest total competition for any man this year - by a lot, at that, whether folks want to admit it or not. Not to mention, he could throw in a 4S or 4L (likely the former) if he feels like truly slaying (and have the 4Z and 4F back in the SP).

 

[Metis]

Chen is definitely atop the rankings after his showing at US Nationals, especially with Hanyu as a question mark and Uno having yet to truly find his groove.

It was strong on a technical level, but I’m not convinced? It’s Nathan’s first clean SP this year. His current best international SP score is 7 points back of Hanyu’s worst (the one with an invalid spin). Seven points isn’t fatal, but it’s a deeper wound than it was before the new SoV. I think Nathan is very, very strong, but I also don’t think he has room for a messy SP and/or a fall in the free skate unless Hanyu is also messy (and it depends on how the TP feels about Shoma). I’m also not blind to how ambitious his current training regime is — I think it’s awesome he’s been able to balance school and skating, but I don’t think he’s absolutely at the head of the pack. He, Shoma, and Hanyu are 100% the clear front runners and well ahead of the rest of the field, but the relative distance between first and third isn’t much.

Also, I’m not convinced that I should give Nathan the benefit of the doubt on repeating two clean skates at Worlds while juggling Yale. And if I just take your word for it that I can expect Nathan to repeat that kind of performance and a 300+ score, then there’s no reason I can’t extend the same benefit of the doubt to Hanyu, who won the Olympics while injured and is, as far as we know, returning to competition at Worlds while having had an actual chance to heal. But, uh, I should just take it on your assertion that Nathan is definitely going to repeat his Nationals performance but Hanyu won’t even manage to repeat his level at Helsinki? 404. Underlying logic could not be found.

The skaters who would get the biggest bump in my rankings at the moment are Samarin (who’s underrated in general but is absolutely not a PCS skater), Kolyada (the judges are waiting to give you the marks, my dude, now be healthy, please), Boyang (assuming he repeats his Nats performance at 4CC, he’s absolutely back in the top 5 and can easily overtake anyone who makes an error). Cha is still in fourth. Rizzo gets a sizable bump for medaling at Euros and not only rotating the 4T but landing it. Keegan falls back to the very bottom or outright of the top ten after a rocky season so far, but this is why I’m waiting for 4CC — if Keegan puts together two clean skates, he’s absolutely in the 6-10 mix.

 

[Tahuu]

Anyone notices the errors in ISU World Standings across all disciplines? It seems they can't sort the tables by the total scores so they just put in semi random total scores to match (or create) the rankings after each standing update. Such a joke. Imagine this is how ATP (Association of Tennis Professionals) maintains their rankings and the responses from the tennis world and the media.

Top 20 men from 1/26/19 updated ISU world standings:

1 4940 Shoma UNO

2 4802 Nathan CHEN

3 4540 Yuzuru HANYU

4 4274 Mikhail KOLYADA

5 3570 Jason BROWN

6 3436 Javier FERNANDEZ

7 3298 Alexander SAMARIN

8 3094 Alexei BYCHENKO

9 3093 Matteo RIZZO

10 3063 Dmitri ALIEV

11 3021 Boyang JIN

12 2997 Vincent ZHOU

13 2865 Sergei VORONOV

14 2778 Keegan MESSING

15 2753 Morisi KVITELASHVILI

16 2746 Deniss VASILJEVS

17 2742 Michal BREZINA

18 2412 Keiji TANAKA

19 2391 Junhwan CHA

20 2365 Kazuki TOMONO


Top 20 men of actual 1/26/19 world standings:

1 5620 Shoma UNO

2 5454 Nathan CHEN

3 5290 Mikhail KOLYADA

4 4820 Yuzuru HANYU

5 4144 Jason BROWN

6 4049 Javier FERNANDEZ

7 3978 Alexander SAMARIN

8 3601 Matteo RIZZO

9 3456 Alexei BYCHENKO

10 3429 Dmitri ALIEV

11 3334 Morisi KVITELASHVILI

12 3296 Sergei VORONOV

13 3204 Boyang JIN

13 3204 Deniss VASILJEVS

15 3139 Vincent ZHOU

16 2927 Michal BREZINA

17 2778 Keegan MESSING

18 2561 Keiji TANAKA

19 2391 Junhwan CHA

20 2380 Daniel GRASSL

 

[ice coverage]

Anyone notices the errors in ISU World Standings across all disciplines? ...

I would not assume that there are errors.

To get the correct number of ISU World Standings points to the left of a skater's name (which determine the rankings), it is *not* as simple as adding up all the points shown to the right of a skater's name.

2.3 Within the preceding two seasons and the current season the following events will be considered for the ISU World Standings order, season’s factors as per C.1. to be considered:

2.3.1 ISU Championships and Olympic Winter Games: The best result by points per season; the best two results by points over a period not longer than 2 completed seasons plus the current season;

2.3.2 ISU Grand Prix of Figure Skating and Final: The two best results by points per season; the best four results by points over a period not longer than 2 completed seasons plus the current season;

2.3.3 ISU Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating and Final: The two best results by points per season; the best four results by points over a period not longer than 2 completed seasons plus the current season;

2.3.4 International Senior Calendar Competitions: The two best results by points per season; the best four results by points over a period not longer than 2 completed seasons plus the current season;

2.3.5 For Pairs either the ISU Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating or the ISU (Senior) Grand Prix of Figure Skating will be considered for points. The applicable events will be based on the two best results by points per season; the best four results by points over a period not longer than 2 completed seasons plus the current season; ...​

​

https://isu.org/inside-isu/isu-communications/communications/1625-1629-world-standing-sandp-id/file​