2018-19 Russian Ladies' figure skating

[hanca]

She's growing not one, not two, but three!
Daria Usacheva, Kamila Valieva, and Maya Kromykh
Plus Kadyrova who was eligible for juniors this season

Then they will definitely let all three starts move up, as long as they get the results this season. For the next Olympics I don’t think they will want to bet on skaters like Tsurskaya, Radionova, Tuktamysheva, because the last two Olympics it was skaters well under 20 who brought the medals in ladies. Sotnikova, Zagitova and Medvedeva, they all were in their first Olympic cycle. So from this point of view, Tuktamysheva, Pogorilaya, Radionova and Tsurskaya will be considered ‘the old guys’. I don’t think anyone will be betting on Konstantinova either, because she has never been that great. I don’t know if they can really rely on Medvedeva and Zagitova because they may have issues with motivation. (We saw it with Sotnikova, and with Volosozhar/Trankov) . So it sems to me that the best strategy for the next Olympics is to grow new set of youngsters. And give them time to get established in seniors.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Was there any case in figure skating history when some junior athlete decided not to or wasn't allowed to move up to seniors despite having high enough scores?

Serafima Sakhanovich won two JWC silver medals and was made to stay on the JGP. She easily satisfied the SB’s necasssry to move to the GP. At the time many speculated it was to prevent over crowding the senior field but she was clearly ready to go and I wasn’t happy that Zhenya got to move up but not Sima. It felt strange...Sima left Eteri that season if IRRC.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

Yes I think so. But didn't she also really struggle that season? Maybe they saw that and that's why they didn't let her take GP spots after all.

 

[Elucidus]

The 6 to receive a second spot would have been Trusova, Kostornaia, Tarakanova, Panenkova, Gulyakova, Samodurova, and we would have had an all Russian final. I believe we are already seeing a better strategy this year, so hopefully no one will get short-changed.

That could be and still can be an issue, actually. Don't forget that RusFed and ISU are very closely connected (Lakernik etc.) politically and financially - to the point of many common interests. Therefore, considering that having such a final is not what ISU would want (purely from business perspective as it's not profitable to have one country final) - they could have some mutual agreements with RusFed considering deliberate limiting their potential winners to at least 5. So, I wouldn't be surprised to see this season that RusFed again will begin making "foolish" decisions

 

[leoleo]

Was this shared already? it's news about Daria Panenkova programs!
SP: skyfall
FS: You're not from here (lara fabian)

https://www.sport-express.ru/figure-skating/reviews/zagitova-horoshiy-chelovek-intervyu-eks-uchenicy-tutberidze-1449618/

sorry if you already discussed it, i haven't been following the thread recently!
also, subbed instalive of Tarusina from yesterday
https://youtu.be/bXBPMkPmvmY

 

[hanca]

That could be and still can be an issue, actually. Don't forget that RusFed and ISU are very closely connected (Lakernik etc.) politically and financially - to the point of many common interests. Therefore, considering that having such a final is not what ISU would want (purely from business perspective as it's not profitable to have one country final) - they could have some mutual agreements with RusFed considering deliberate limiting their potential winners to at least 5. So, I wouldn't be surprised to see this season that RusFed again will begin making "foolish" decisions

They may be ‘deliberately limiting’ not because of ISU, but because they may want to give as many skaters as possible the international experience. JGP is bigger deal than just any small B competition and Russian federation is interested in looking into future and ensuring the results not only for this season but also ahead. Having fifth or sixth place at JGPF is not that huge deal for Russia, whereas ensuring that as many of them will be experienced to handle the competitive pressure may be more important. For example, imagine that Kanysheva will place in top three at the junior nationals and be sent to junior worlds. How riskly it would be to send her to such competition if she didn’t have a JGP event where she can experience international competition? On the other hand they couldn’t very well not sent her if she won her place...

 

[MalAssada]

I hate to be pessimistic, but when looking at Eteri's wonder girls I can't help to remember of the Russian quad who became juniors in the 2013-2014 season: Medvedeva, Sakhanovich, Proklova and Sotskova. Medvedeva, of course, went all to take the figure skating world by storm, and Sotskova became an Olympian, but... I think we're looking at the best case scenario, here, in which all the talented girls are still fantastic in a couple of years.

Of course, that's what I want the most, but I fear that puberty, injuries, etc will get in the way of some.

 

[Amei]

I hate to be pessimistic, but when looking at Eteri's wonder girls I can't help to remember of the Russian quad who became juniors in the 2013-2014 season: Medvedeva, Sakhanovich, Proklova and Sotskova. Medvedeva, of course, went all to take the figure skating world by storm, and Sotskova became an Olympian, but... I think we're looking at the best case scenario, here, in which all the talented girls are still fantastic in a couple of years.

Of course, that's what I want the most, but I fear that puberty, injuries, etc will get in the way of some.

It's not like Eteri broke new ground though on skaters being promising in juniors or as young senior skaters to only see injuries/puberty get in the way of their potential. Its the nature of sports/life. I remember a fluff piece, maybe 1 of the more memorable fluff pieces I've seen that was done before the Beijing summer Olympics when Shawn Johnson was making a splash in gymnastics and Liukin was having some injuries the piece said 'Beijing in a year for 1 it might be just right it for 1 it may be too far.'

 

[moriel]

Most juniors who medaled at JGP either do not turn seniors at all or have very poor senior careers.

Cantt find it now, but a while ago I posted some stats over a period of like 10 years or so on this.

 

[TripleAxelQueens3]

I wasn’t a big fan of skating 2013-14, so can someone please explain to me why proklova retired? She was an Up and coming talent IMO.

 

[LRK]

I wasn’t a big fan of skating 2013-14, so can someone please explain to me why proklova retired? She was an Up and coming talent IMO.

Injuries, I believe. She then tried pair skating (I think she did a try-out with Andrei Deputat? - someone correct me if I'm wrong), but it did not work out, again, I believe because of her injuries.

 

[dante]

I can't help to remember of the Russian quad who became juniors in the 2013-2014 season: Medvedeva, Sakhanovich, Proklova and Sotskova. Medvedeva, of course, went all to take the figure skating world by storm, and Sotskova became an Olympian, but... I think we're looking at the best case scenario, here, in which all the talented girls are still fantastic in a couple of years.

On the other hand, no one noticed Zagitova moving to juniors.

 

[charlotte14]

On the other hand, no one noticed Zagitova moving to juniors.

She came like a wrecking ball.

 

[Shayuki]

On the other hand, no one noticed Zagitova moving to juniors.

Well, we've checked Eteri Tutberidze's newly eligible ladies for juniors... There's no one(Unless you want to count Shcherbakova due to it being her first JGP season). Only Yasmina Kadyrova could be a potential one but she's.. not quite that good, and also doesn't seem to be with Eteri full time.

 

[hanca]

I hate to be pessimistic, but when looking at Eteri's wonder girls I can't help to remember of the Russian quad who became juniors in the 2013-2014 season: Medvedeva, Sakhanovich, Proklova and Sotskova. Medvedeva, of course, went all to take the figure skating world by storm, and Sotskova became an Olympian, but... I think we're looking at the best case scenario, here, in which all the talented girls are still fantastic in a couple of years.

Of course, that's what I want the most, but I fear that puberty, injuries, etc will get in the way of some.

I am pretty sure that puberty, injuries etc will hinder some of them. More skaters you could name is Gubanova, Nugumanova and Tsurskaya. A few years ago many people thought that thay are ‘it’. Tsurskaya even had Tutberidze, so in theory her chances were even better...

Saying that, because there is so many of the girls, even if a half of them doesn’t survive puberty and injuries, there will be plenty left to get to the Olympics. It just may or may not be Trusova, Scherbakova and Kostornaya. In fact, these three ladies will be in Medvedeva’s shoes - they will be in their third senior season at the Olympics. It is possible that they will be beaten by anothr version of Zagitova, one of the girls who will become junior eligible the next season.

 

[hanca]

Well, we've checked Eteri Tutberidze's newly eligible ladies for juniors... There's no one(Unless you want to count Shcherbakova due to it being her first JGP season). Only Yasmina Kadyrova could be a potential one but she's.. not quite that good, and also doesn't seem to be with Eteri full time.

It is too early. Four years ago no one even heard about Zagitova. The future golden girl may be currently with a completely different coach showing just average/under average results, just like Zagitova did.

 

[moriel]

I did realize that placements and scores would make all three of them very likely to move up and succeed on the senior GP. But a big factor of Zagitova's explosive rise this last season is that she won both her events, GPF, etc... They all have time to establish themselves as top tier skaters before Beijing, but I wondered if moving all three of them up at the same time would not be counterproductive: they would be each other's biggest competition, after all. I worry that with such a move either Anna or Alena would get the short end of the stick, so to speak, in terms of assignments, fed support, and so on.

I'm pretty sure that there won't be such "choice" issues. We don't know how this girls will deal with puberty, and if any of them will get injured.
I know it sounds pessimistic, but pretty sure that at least one of them will be "out of competition" by then.

 

[Shayuki]

It is too early. Four years ago no one even heard about Zagitova. The future golden girl may be currently with a completely different coach showing just average/under average results, just like Zagitova did.

Are you referring to the Olympics? Zagitova didn't have anyone like Shcherbakova, Trusova or even Kostornaya to deal with. She herself isn't someone I see any quad / 3A potential in. It's a different landscape, with different requirements. Being able to perform 7 triple programs with -3Lo combos and repeating Lz and Flip like Zagitova doesn't set you apart, it simply makes you equal with skaters like Trusova and Shcherbakova, even if we don't take quads into account. Especially with the removal of backloading, you can't use that to set yourself apart either.

You have to look for different things now. What someone like Zagitova can do isn't enough. Furthermore, Eteri already has 3 girls of that age group, looking at next Olympics. As such, it'd either have to be a weaker girl inserted as the 4th member of that age group(Do you think she would then go on to become the best for the age group?) or it'd have to be a skater of some other coach.

When it comes to the other coaches with any sort of potential for similar success, we have Svetlana Panova and Sergei Davydov. But would they get someone who'd be better than all 3 Eteri girls? That'd certainly be unexpected. Anastasia Shabotova is good, but that good?

 

[Spirals for Miles]

The thing is, Eteri is really, really good at building stars. I feel like Panova is more of a foundational coach who takes skaters to a high level but she's never taken anyone to worlds, Euros, Olympics, etc. The training facilities are just not ideal. And Davydov is like a lesser version of Panova, imo.

ETA: Nastya Tarakanova has said that if she has a bad showing at Moscow Open, she will be removed from JGP Canada

 

[hanca]

Are you referring to the Olympics? Zagitova didn't have anyone like Shcherbakova, Trusova or even Kostornaya to deal with. She herself isn't someone I see any quad / 3A potential in. It's a different landscape, with different requirements. Being able to perform 7 triple programs with -3Lo combos and repeating Lz and Flip like Zagitova doesn't set you apart, it simply makes you equal with skaters like Trusova and Shcherbakova, even if we don't take quads into account. Especially with the removal of backloading, you can't use that to set yourself apart either.

You have to look for different things now. What someone like Zagitova can do isn't enough. Furthermore, Eteri already has 3 girls of that age group, looking at next Olympics. As such, it'd either have to be a weaker girl inserted as the 4th member of that age group(Do you think she would then go on to become the best for the age group?) or it'd have to be a skater of some other coach.

When it comes to the other coaches with any sort of potential for similar success, we have Svetlana Panova and Sergei Davydov. But would they get someone who'd be better than all 3 Eteri girls? That'd certainly be unexpected. Anastasia Shabotova is good, but that good?

If Zagitova was known four years ago, she would have other top starts to fight with. Tsurskaya as well as the four Proklova/Sotskova/Sakhanovich/Medvedeva. However, how things turned out, all those very promising superstarts did not work out. So my point remains. The golden girl for the next Olympics is still unknown and currently probably shows only average or even uneraverage results. She may not even be junior eligible (will become junior eligible next season) or is only this season newly eligible. And she may not even need to worry about the current crop of the superstars because no one can’t guarantee that in three years time they will still be around. Same as it happened with the past superstars. We are talking about ice skating. The ice is slippery. Look at Medvedeva, unbeatable for three years and gets injured just before Olympics. Look at At Scherbakova missing a whole season with broken leg. In fact, considering the injury rate of skaters in that group, I think the probability is quite high that Scherbakova and Trusova may be both injured. The line of injured skaters from that group is quite long.