2018-19 Russian Ladies' figure skating

[el henry]

Anyway, I definitely think it's possible that when Trusova, Kostornaia, and Shcherbakova (typing these names all out at once is tiring!! lol) all move up, assuming all are healthy and capable of what they are now, Evgenia might not make the 2020 Worlds team (which would actually devastate me because that will be the first international skating competition I EVER go to see live!!!). But in 2021 and 2022? Anything could happen, and if Evgenia stays consistent, healthy and achieves Carolina-level PCS (which are always there despite how many technical mistakes she makes) and gradually increases her tech, anything is possible. (It's possible that Trusova will have 5 quads in Beijing 2022. It's possible she won't even be there. Who knows?)

Anyway, you keep criticizing Evgenia and Orser's strategy - but I'm genuinely curious as to what you think that she should do instead? She's recovering from injury, which puts limits on what they can do without too much risk. I think as long as she stays consistent this season and makes the GPF and Worlds podiums, she's in a favorable enough position - and a far better position than any other Russian lady will be after the age of 18. (Plus, I think the 4S could be a possibility for next season.)

Strategic thinking requires planning for all possibilities. There may be six quad jumping ladies now in juniors for battling for senior domination, or there may be none. Predicting any result based on juniors, as though it were graven in stone and is going to happen no matter what, is a fool's game. And Brian Orser is no fool.

One cannot say for sure that Brian's methods will work with Zhenya. One cannot say for sure that the girls now jumping quads at 14 will jump them at 16. To coin a phrase, it seems that some folks will criticize Zhenya's work with Brian "no matter what". And that I don't understand

 

[Bluediamonds09]

“Because she eats.”

 

[RingOfEndlessLight]

One thing I don't understand about the argument that she has to win everything every single season, or Russia (being so competitive) will just... spit her out... is this: we don't see that happening with other very good but no longer incredible skaters. How many seasons has it been since Radionova was a front-runner? And she's still there at test skates and getting GPs.

It seems to me that Medvedeva can afford to have a slightly lackluster season -- or even two -- as long as she doesn't dip below (and stay below) three other Russian ladies. There is a cushion, although it's not as generous as the cushion skaters in other countries enjoy. Of course, if she were to bomb massively and repeatedly, it would become harder to make a comeback, but she doesn't need to propped up by Rusfed to keep her eyes on 2022.

For what it's worth, I am one of the many people side-eyeing her Free Skate. It doesn't help that I *hate* Libertango... but anyway. I just don't think it's true that she absolutely, absolutely must win everything every year in order to have a chance at 2022. No other skater is held to that standard.

 

[Shayuki]

They cannot be serious with Vasilieva.

One could argue that she's the 4th best lady participating in JGP for Russia this season so why would they not be serious?

One thing I don't understand about the argument that she has to win everything every single season, or Russia (being so competitive) will just... spit her out... is this: we don't see that happening with other very good but no longer incredible skaters. How many seasons has it been since Radionova was a front-runner? And she's still there at test skates and getting GPs.

It's not about SGP it's about spots at Worlds. And Medvedeva's quite reliant on being #1 for Russia.

 

[atsumiri]

One thing I don't understand about the argument that she has to win everything every single season, or Russia (being so competitive) will just... spit her out... is this: we don't see that happening with other very good but no longer incredible skaters. How many seasons has it been since Radionova was a front-runner? And she's still there at test skates and getting GPs.

"getting GPs" and "getting EC & WC" spots are kind of different.

 

[Shayuki]

Strategic thinking requires planning for all possibilities. There may be six quad jumping ladies now in juniors for battling for senior domination, or there may be none. Predicting any result based on juniors, as though it were graven in stone and is going to happen no matter what, is a fool's game. And Brian Orser is no fool.

One cannot say for sure that Brian's methods will work with Zhenya. One cannot say for sure that the girls now jumping quads at 14 will jump them at 16. To coin a phrase, it seems that some folks will criticize Zhenya's work with Brian "no matter what". And that I don't understand

You talk about preparing "for all possibilities", which is ironic because you seem to think that preparing for the possibility that all of them will have a smooth transition to seniors isn't important(In which case, Medvedeva has no time to work on things slowly).

 

[RingOfEndlessLight]

to get GPs spots and to get EC and WC spot are kind of different.

Of course. But posters here are commenting, for example, that Tuktamysheva has a chance at a spot for EC and WC. It's an uphill battle, but if she has a chance... why wouldn't another skater who might "only" get GP spots for a year or two and then improves herself again?

 

[Sugar Coated]

One thing I don't understand about the argument that she has to win everything every single season, or Russia (being so competitive) will just... spit her out... is this: we don't see that happening with other very good but no longer incredible skaters. How many seasons has it been since Radionova was a front-runner? And she's still there at test skates and getting GPs.

It seems to me that Medvedeva can afford to have a slightly lackluster season -- or even two -- as long as she doesn't dip below (and stay below) three other Russian ladies. There is a cushion, although it's not as generous as the cushion skaters in other countries enjoy. Of course, if she were to bomb massively and repeatedly, it would become harder to make a comeback, but she doesn't need to propped up by Rusfed to keep her eyes on 2022.

For what it's worth, I am one of the many people side-eyeing her Free Skate. It doesn't help that I *hate* Libertango... but anyway. I just don't think it's true that she absolutely, absolutely must win everything every year in order to have a chance at 2022. No other skater is held to that standard.

I don’t think she needs to win everything but I do think she needs to keep up PCS. This is partly based on reputation. As long as she can continue to have at least a couple really good skates per season, I don’t even think she needs to be top three every year although that should certainly help. She’s playing the long game now.

 

[moriel]

My guess is that Brian will try to build that "star quality" into Evgenia as he did with Kim and Hanyu, so she can win with huge PCS no matter what even without the most difficult programs, but it's hard to win against 3 quads from Trusova anyway.

TAT is very influential but she doesn't represent RusFed, they don't all think like her, as we saw last year there were even some that wanted to remove her place as commentator. Evgenia still has to skate at RN and get one of the three spots to go to Euro and Worlds.

There is no room for star quality. Zhenya's PCs are basically maxed out already.
As for TAT, whatever random people and fans say is irrelevant, many people wanted her retired and away from skating and commenting for years by now. Still she represents fairly well the state of mind of the fed, and there is correlation between what TAT says and what fed does (not necessarely causality, but surely a strong correlation).


As for winning everything... Zhenya currently has the following advantages:
1. Her Lz unclear edge does not get called that much
2. She has a huge PCs cushion based on her rep and her #1 russian lady status.

Now, there is this simple thing: judges love consistency and reputation and don´t like losers. If she is not russian #1 or #2 at any given season, she will start getting much different scores. Not because she would get worse, but because judges will stop rewarding her for consistency and reputation. A good example of how this works is to compare the GOE Tuktik (russian #whatever last season) and Osmond (canadian #1) were getting last season. I am not even comparing with Zhenya here since one can argue transitions and tanos and whatever, meanwhile both Tuktik and Osmond are kinda more comparable.

She does not need to win everything indeed, but her pcs and GOEs may take a hit whenever she loses.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Can we start a different thread for the Zhenya vs Alina and Brian vs Eteri debate? I’m so tired of the lectures and people repeating themselves over and over again :yawn:

Maybe we need to move this thread to the fan fest to weed out the drama starters
I wouldn’t mind...I’m almost always in here to celebrate one of the many talented Russian ladies

 

[andromache]

You talk about preparing "for all possibilities", which is ironic because you seem to think that preparing for the possibility that all of them will have a smooth transition to seniors isn't important(In which case, Medvedeva has no time to work on things slowly).

I mean, if Trusova has 3 semi-consistent quads in 2022, then no one will beat her aside from another lady with quads. It’s possible Evgenia to learn a single quad, maybe, but she has undeniable physical limitations. There’s only so much you can do so you just have to do your best with what you’ve got. Evgenia has a grown woman’s body, injuries (I bet that back injury she will probably have for her entire career), and not so great jump technique. She and Brian have to prepare for all possibilities but they also have to be realistic - she’s never going to do a quad lutz, for example, and she has to keep herself physically healthy, which means increasing TES gradually.

 

[andromache]

There is no room for star quality. Zhenya's PCs are basically maxed out already.
As for TAT, whatever random people and fans say is irrelevant, many people wanted her retired and away from skating and commenting for years by now. Still she represents fairly well the state of mind of the fed, and there is correlation between what TAT says and what fed does (not necessarely causality, but surely a strong correlation).


As for winning everything... Zhenya currently has the following advantages:
1. Her Lz unclear edge does not get called that much
2. She has a huge PCs cushion based on her rep and her #1 russian lady status.

Now, there is this simple thing: judges love consistency and reputation and don´t like losers. If she is not russian #1 or #2 at any given season, she will start getting much different scores. Not because she would get worse, but because judges will stop rewarding her for consistency and reputation. A good example of how this works is to compare the GOE Tuktik (russian #whatever last season) and Osmond (canadian #1) were getting last season. I am not even comparing with Zhenya here since one can argue transitions and tanos and whatever, meanwhile both Tuktik and Osmond are kinda more comparable.

She does not need to win everything indeed, but her pcs and GOEs may take a hit whenever she loses.

I think where we disagree is on whether or not the judges will be quick to dump Evgenia if she makes mistakes. I don’t think they will, personally, but maybe I’m just being optimistic. We just have to wait and see.

 

[el henry]

You talk about preparing "for all possibilities", which is ironic because you seem to think that preparing for the possibility that all of them will have a smooth transition to seniors isn't important(In which case, Medvedeva has no time to work on things slowly).

That is one opinion. And certainly someone can voice their opinion that Brian and Zhenya training for the long haul won’t work, because they believe that the girls currently in juniors will make it to seniors intact with jumps upon jumps and Zhenya won’t make it out of Rus Nats if they do.

I disagree with the premise, but that would just be my opinion. Your opinion, my opinion. Not facts, opinions.

And someone’s opinion is absolutely *no* reason to believe that Brian and Zhenya are not telling the truth about their plan or their goals. You may disagree with their plan or those goals, but again, that’s an opinion.

I’m sorry to keep harping on this, but my training is to distinguish opinions from facts. And the fact is, we don’t know now. But maybe soon

 

[Spirals for Miles]

The way I see it, there are three main possibilities:

1. None of the quad girls (and Alena Kostornaya) make it through puberty and injuries. I would be very surprised if this happens, but technically it's an option. In this case, Medvedeva has a better shot at making the Euros and Worlds teams because three very strong competitors would not be vying for her spots. However, there could always be skaters that shoot up from the second-tier to the top-tier, even just for one year, like Tuktamysheva the year she won worlds.

2. Just some of the quad girls and Kostornaya make it through puberty injury-free. In this case, Medvedeva still has an outside shot at qualifying for Euros and Worlds. If two of the big three are competing at Russian Nationals, Evgenia would probably have to rely on the mistakes of Alina, and any other shoot-to-the-top second tier skaters, to make it, but she still has a chance.

3. All of the quad girls and Kostornaya are doing insanely well and dominating in seniors the way they are in juniors. In this case, I don't think Medvedeva would qualify to Euros and Worlds, because these three would simply take all of the spots. This doesn't mean that Medvedeva, and Zagitova, and Sotskova, Tsurskaya, etc., are doing particularly poorly, it just means that in a country with depth the way Russia has it, they would not be good enough to take the top three spots at Russian Nationals amongst eligible skaters. It doesn't mean that she can stop getting GPs if she has a high SB or WR, it just means that she might not have a Euros or Worlds spot every year.

Of course, the year after next, 2020-2021, skaters like Alena Kanysheva and Ksenia Sinitsyna would also be senior eligible. I've noticed that a snowball effect is beginning to start, where there really isn't a year with a weak number and strength of skaters moving up. This year could be the weakest, even though I think Panenkova and Samodurova are capable of at least doing well on the GP, but next year, as it stands, there will probably be three very strong skaters moving up, and it will just continue to grow. After them come Kanysheva and Sinitsyna, then probably Valieva, Usacheva, and Kromykh, then Samodelkina and Muravyova, then Akatieva and Berestovskaya. But like the whole point of this post, we'll have to wait and see what happens. After all, we were all surprised by Zagitova, and especially Kostornaya, and shocked by others at various points. It just adds more to the sport to see the intrigue that is Russian ladies' skating, and I'm definitely a fan.

 

[dante]

From today's interview with Ilia Averbukh:

Q: There were test skates recently, everyone now discusses Medvedeva and Zagitova. They say there is a wall of coldness between them, did you see it in their behavior?
A: Frankly, I usually avoid such questions, because it's only a drafts of the programs yet, nothing to judge. They are not competing yet, they are not used to their programs, nothing is complete. The specialists should watch it, it's a good refreshing idea. But making conclusions from these skates, it's actually... there are more experienced specialists that can do it right away, but I think it's too early to judge them by a half-done work. Let's see it during the season, the season is long. Nice to see Zhenya retained her shape, she's in a good shape, it's great that she has a synergy with her new coach. I'm sure Zagitova isn't going to give up her position either. The main thing is that these are two our Russian girls and let no one interfere with their rivalry.

Q: Was it tactful of the Canadian to escalate it, to say that Zhenya was told to go have babies, and so on? Wasn't it an intentional attempt to set the Russians against each other, or it's normal for figure skating?
A: I think we should just ignore it. Don't emphasize it, because there is always a political implication in it. Zhenya is beyond reproach, she works really hard every day, while someone is just pursuing his own goals. There is a trend to present anything Russian as authoritarian, as if they shut everyone's mouths, and so on. I've choreographed three Zhenya's programs. It's ridiculous to claim that we didn't discuss it with her, that we didn't choose the music together. We changed it together, Zhenya improvised, she was telling us what she didn't like. We should just ignore such claims, this message that we all are authoritarian in everything here, that we forbid things. Of course it's always more correct to say thanks, because 90% of what the other coach has at his dispose, and will hopefully develop further, was taught in Russia by Eteri Tutberidze. Every their interview should start with thanks to Eteri Tutberidze for the wonderful girl and for being able to develop further her talent. It's an absolutely straight stairway up, and there can be no other one. Otherwise it's as when you come to a doctor and he says "who the hell treated you before?" We should just ignore it, and most importantly, we shouldn't involve Zhenya, Alina or our coaches in it, we must support everyone.

 

[shmy]

From today's interview with Ilia Averbukh:

It's ridiculous to claim that we didn't discuss it with her, that we didn't choose the music together. We changed it together, Zhenya improvised, she was telling us what she didn't like. We should just ignore such claims, this message that we all are authoritarian in everything here, that we forbid things. Of course it's always more correct to say thanks, because 90% of what the other coach has at his dispose, and will hopefully develop further, was taught in Russia by Eteri Tutberidze. Every their interview should start with thanks to Eteri Tutberidze for the wonderful girl and for being able to develop further her talent. It's an absolutely straight stairway up, and there can be no other one. Otherwise it's as when you come to a doctor and he says "who the hell treated you before?" We should just ignore it, and most importantly, we shouldn't involve Zhenya, Alina or our coaches in it, we must support everyone.

basically "we should ignore it but its ridiculous"

 

[Tolstoj]

but. She already has it. The "star quality". She's already getting huge PCS no matter what even without the most difficult programs.
I don't see difference. It didn't help Evgenia the last season. And won't help against Sasha and clean Alina and some others.

I've no idea how she's going to win against the new juniors, i do agree with you on that but i also want to wait and see how their body will change in the next 2-3 years.

About Alina keep in mind that last season she won everything thanks to the TES, this season it is far less impressive without the full backloading, while we don't know how much her PCS will rise.

There is no room for star quality. Zhenya's PCs are basically maxed out already.
As for TAT, whatever random people and fans say is irrelevant, many people wanted her retired and away from skating and commenting for years by now. Still she represents fairly well the state of mind of the fed, and there is correlation between what TAT says and what fed does (not necessarely causality, but surely a strong correlation).


As for winning everything... Zhenya currently has the following advantages:
1. Her Lz unclear edge does not get called that much
2. She has a huge PCs cushion based on her rep and her #1 russian lady status.

Now, there is this simple thing: judges love consistency and reputation and don´t like losers. If she is not russian #1 or #2 at any given season, she will start getting much different scores. Not because she would get worse, but because judges will stop rewarding her for consistency and reputation. A good example of how this works is to compare the GOE Tuktik (russian #whatever last season) and Osmond (canadian #1) were getting last season. I am not even comparing with Zhenya here since one can argue transitions and tanos and whatever, meanwhile both Tuktik and Osmond are kinda more comparable.

She does not need to win everything indeed, but her pcs and GOEs may take a hit whenever she loses.

I love TAT, she's the most successful coach ever so she knows this sport more than me and i love her as a commentator, but she likes to be hyperbolic and most of these statements are like jokes, treats for the press, we don't know what she actually says to the Fed and how much the Fed takes from her feedbacks.

We saw Eteri and Daniil laughing with Alla Shekhovtsova after Alina's SP, it's probably nothing but still i do believe the Federation knows how reliable Eteri has been in the past years, she brought one of the two Olympic gold medals Russia won in Pyeongchang after all, they won't screw her students just because TAT likes Evgenia more.

BTW I was referring to Irina Rodnina on my previous post, she is more than some random person.

 

[rikaquegira]

From today's interview with Ilia Averbukh:

Q: There were test skates recently, everyone now discusses Medvedeva and Zagitova. They say there is a wall of coldness between them, did you see it in their behavior?
A: Frankly, I usually avoid such questions, because it's only a drafts of the programs yet, nothing to judge. They are not competing yet, they are not used to their programs, nothing is complete. The specialists should watch it, it's a good refreshing idea. But making conclusions from these skates, it's actually... there are more experienced specialists that can do it right away, but I think it's too early to judge them by a half-done work. Let's see it during the season, the season is long. Nice to see Zhenya retained her shape, she's in a good shape, it's great that she has a synergy with her new coach. I'm sure Zagitova isn't going to give up her position either. The main thing is that these are two our Russian girls and let no one interfere with their rivalry.

Q: Was it tactful of the Canadian to escalate it, to say that Zhenya was told to go have babies, and so on? Wasn't it an intentional attempt to set the Russians against each other, or it's normal for figure skating?
A: I think we should just ignore it. Don't emphasize it, because there is always a political implication in it. Zhenya is beyond reproach, she works really hard every day, while someone is just pursuing his own goals. There is a trend to present anything Russian as authoritarian, as if they shut everyone's mouths, and so on. I've choreographed three Zhenya's programs. It's ridiculous to claim that we didn't discuss it with her, that we didn't choose the music together. We changed it together, Zhenya improvised, she was telling us what she didn't like. We should just ignore such claims, this message that we all are authoritarian in everything here, that we forbid things. Of course it's always more correct to say thanks, because 90% of what the other coach has at his dispose, and will hopefully develop further, was taught in Russia by Eteri Tutberidze. Every their interview should start with thanks to Eteri Tutberidze for the wonderful girl and for being able to develop further her talent. It's an absolutely straight stairway up, and there can be no other one. Otherwise it's as when you come to a doctor and he says "who the hell treated you before?" We should just ignore it, and most importantly, we shouldn't involve Zhenya, Alina or our coaches in it, we must support everyone.

 

[Ophelia]

Lulz at all the toothsaying going on in here and the confidence in the upcoming juniors.

None of the predictions for the last quad panned out. Back then, everyone was salivating over Sotnikova vs Lip, with Radianova and Tukt rounding out the Russian squad. They all fizzled out.

No point handwringing over the future right now. Some of the juniors won't make it out, and the actual players will look very different from what is being called here.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

The way I see it, there are three main possibilities:

1. None of the quad girls (and Alena Kostornaya) make it through puberty and injuries. I would be very surprised if this happens, but technically it's an option. In this case, Medvedeva has a better shot at making the Euros and Worlds teams because three very strong competitors would not be vying for her spots. However, there could always be skaters that shoot up from the second-tier to the top-tier, even just for one year, like Tuktamysheva the year she won worlds.

2. Just some of the quad girls and Kostornaya make it through puberty injury-free. In this case, Medvedeva still has an outside shot at qualifying for Euros and Worlds. If two of the big three are competing at Russian Nationals, Evgenia would probably have to rely on the mistakes of Alina, and any other shoot-to-the-top second tier skaters, to make it, but she still has a chance.

3. All of the quad girls and Kostornaya are doing insanely well and dominating in seniors the way they are in juniors. In this case, I don't think Medvedeva would qualify to Euros and Worlds, because these three would simply take all of the spots. This doesn't mean that Medvedeva, and Zagitova, and Sotskova, Tsurskaya, etc., are doing particularly poorly, it just means that in a country with depth the way Russia has it, they would not be good enough to take the top three spots at Russian Nationals amongst eligible skaters. It doesn't mean that she can stop getting GPs if she has a high SB or WR, it just means that she might not have a Euros or Worlds spot every year.

Of course, the year after next, 2020-2021, skaters like Alena Kanysheva and Ksenia Sinitsyna would also be senior eligible. I've noticed that a snowball effect is beginning to start, where there really isn't a year with a weak number and strength of skaters moving up. This year could be the weakest, even though I think Panenkova and Samodurova are capable of at least doing well on the GP, but next year, as it stands, there will probably be three very strong skaters moving up, and it will just continue to grow. After them come Kanysheva and Sinitsyna, then probably Valieva, Usacheva, and Kromykh, then Samodelkina and Muravyova, then Akatieva and Berestovskaya. But like the whole point of this post, we'll have to wait and see what happens. After all, we were all surprised by Zagitova, and especially Kostornaya, and shocked by others at various points. It just adds more to the sport to see the intrigue that is Russian ladies' skating, and I'm definitely a fan.

I'm somewhat optimistic that the quad girls will at least be able to keep the jumps through the 3Lz, keeping them competitive with the field. They are jumping the quads with good height, so they are accustomed to executing a jump with enough height to accommodate a triple after their growth spurt. Obviously injuries will be a wildcard, but I'm not sure that they'll have to completely rework their jumps unless they plan on continuing to do quads.