2018-19 Russian Ladies' figure skating

[moriel]

can anyone do some maths and tell what a realistic SP/LP senior score would look like for Kostornaia, Trusova, and Shcherbakova for nats? I'm really curious how clean skates from them would stack up against a clean Alina, Zhenya, etc.

Juniors have the following differences from seniors:
1. In SP, they have an obligatory solo jump, which is F this year. Usually the girls keep the F so we will not fiddle with this.
2. In FS, juniors don't have a ChSq, which has a BV of 3.00. To make stuff easier, we will assume that all those girls can do it with a +1.5GOE, which means +4.5 points.

In short, they they skate like they did at JGP, they will get something like this:
Kostornaia: 223 or so (217.98 + 4.5)
Trusova: 219-220
Shcherbakova: 186-187

Now there is this thing though, ice is slippery and quads can be landed.
Both Trusova and Shcherbakova landed 4Lz+3T domestically with positive GOE, getting 20 points for a single combo.

That is something that would add 18 points to their JGPF scores.

 

[Mathman]

I bet the Russian federation is hoping that Medvedeva finishes strong. They have plenty of fire-power in any case, but if they sent Alina, Elizaveta and Eugenia to worlds, I think it would be the first time that any nation had three world or Olympic champions on the team.

 

[TripleAxelQueens3]

If they are clean then:

1. Sasha - 165+ for the free and like 75 for the short = 240+
2. Anya - 157+ for the free and 73 for the short = 230+
3. Alena - 148+ for the free and 77+ for the short = 225+

Why do I say this?

Sasha - At Stage 4, with a fall on the quad lutz and pop in the quad toe, Sasha got 153 points in the free skate. Add on the 6 points she would get for the lutz and add the 10 she would get for the toe, which means 169. We have to remove one of the bonuses though.

Anya - At Stage 4, Anya got 150 with a fall and underrotation in her second quad lutz. So again, she lost like 8 points there. We also have to remove her spin and quad bonus while adding in the 3 points that choreo sequence is worth.

Alena - If Alena got 141 in international junior competition, it’s 100% possible for her to get to 145 and above. Especially with the choreo sequence and some correct PCS.

So yeah. I would assume Alina would get somewhere around 82 for the short and 160 something for the free. So, she’ll probably still win but Sasha and Anna should be second and third. Alena should also be on the podium, but what can you do? I love literally all the girls at RusNats and making predictions is torture!

 

[moriel]

My thought on Rusnats...
Since they have some decent senior ladies, my guess is that there will be a strong distinction between junior and senior PCs, and unless Sasha lands 3 clean quads or Alina has a Worlds sized meltdown, Alina will have gold.

I am actually more interested in Zhenya vs Liza here, i mean, how rusfed will distribute GOE and PCs on those is a very interesting question.

 

[moriel]

I bet the Russian federation is hoping that Medvedeva finishes strong. They have plenty of fire-power in any case, but if they sent Alina, Elizaveta and Eugenia to worlds, I think it would be the first time that any nation had three world or Olympic champions on the team.

if?
The team looks pretty much set at this point, unless major meltdown.

I suppose the only way someone else can make the team is if Alina WDs from rusnats. Because then they will actually have to send the 2 top senior eligible ladies, since the coaches decision will have to be used on Alina (as she is the only russian lady this season who can challenge Kihira).

 

[Jeanie19]

if?
The team looks pretty much set at this point, unless major meltdown.

I suppose the only way someone else can make the team is if Alina WDs from rusnats. Because then they will actually have to send the 2 top senior eligible ladies, since the coaches decision will have to be used on Alina (as she is the only russian lady this season who can challenge Kihira).

Will it be the first time in any discipline that it is an Olympic champion and two world champions?

 

[Mathman]

if?
The team looks pretty much set at this point, unless major meltdown.

I am giving Sofia Samodurova a chance to make her case. She has been able to maximize all of her opportunities this year so far.

As for Medvedeva, she will probably go, but I hope she gets her spot by breaking down the door and not by backing into it. :yes:

 

[Tolstoj]

I also think Tarakanova will remain junior next season as well.

That would be so dumb and the ultimate proof of how flawed really is the system RusFed currently uses.

This way new coaching teams will never be able to merge, so you basically kill competition and that for sure will affect the whole presence of Russia in Ladies Figure Skating. (because you keep sending CSKA skaters who can't even skate 1 clean program, while leaving the others in juniors with few exceptions only for the other top teams).

Yes Eteri and Sergei made it but because they worked their a...s off, with years relegated in juniors with Polina Shelepen.

I was reading few days ago the article from sports.ru about the paradox of Serafima Sakhanovich: she has one the highest SB among the Russian ladies (better than Konstantinova and Samodurova even) and she isn't allowed to compete at Nationals, it makes absolutely no sense.

 

[Amei]

I am giving Sofia Samodurova a chance to make her case. She has been able to maximize all of her opportunities this year so far.

As for Medvedeva, she will probably go, but I hope she gets her spot by breaking down the door and not backing into it. :yes:

If Sofia S. skates clean at Nationals, I think it would be showing pure politics for Evgenia to go to Europeans or Worlds over Sofia unless Evgenia does a complete 180 from everything we've seen from her this year. Below is a breakdown on the technical side from their competitions this year.

Sofia:
GP Final - No under-rotations, no edge calls.
GP Russia - 1 under-rotation in the FS, clean in the short
GP Skate America - FS she had 1 edge call, clean in the short
CS Lombardia - her 'messiest' competition: 1 under-rotation in the FS and a single lutz, clean in the short

Evgenia:
GP France: FS: 1 fall and an under-rotated jump, SP an edge call
GP Canada: FS 2 edge calls and an under-rotation, SP, an edge call, missed combo and downgraded jump
CS Autumn Classic: FS: 1 edge call, an under-rotation and a fall, SP an edge call

 

[Globetrotter]

I am giving Sofia Samodurova a chance to make her case. She has been able to maximize all of her opportunities this year so far.

As for Medvedeva, she will probably go, but I hope she gets her spot by breaking down the door and not backing into it. :yes:

May the best ladies make it through. Caveat: my secret Russian fave has always been Liza Tuks and Sofia has recently grown on me with her big personality on ice. Tuks deserve more love in PCS - she can sell her empress programmes even with less transitions. Just looking forward to Alyona Kostornaia tomove to seniors - her movement, posture and very decent basic SS are to die for; the only small flaw I spot is that the 3Lz edge is effy flat and will be dinged if Shin Amano shows up.

 

[Globetrotter]

That would be so dumb and the ultimate proof of how flawed really is the system RusFed currently uses.

This way new coaching teams will never be able to merge, so you basically kill competition and that for sure will affect the whole presence of Russia in Ladies Figure Skating. (because you keep sending CSKA skaters who can't even skate 1 clean program, while leaving the others in juniors with few exceptions only for the other top teams).

Yes Eteri and Sergei made it but because they worked their a...s off, with years relegated in juniors with Polina Shelepen.

I was reading few days ago the article from sports.ru about the paradox of Serafima Sakhanovich: she has one the highest SB among the Russian ladies (better than Konstantinova and Samodurova even) and she isn't allowed to compete at Nationals, it makes absolutely no sense.

Hmm I am not quite understanding. What will having a skater stay in juniors got to do with CSKA skaters being sent to senior?

 

[rlopen]

if?
The team looks pretty much set at this point, unless major meltdown.

I suppose the only way someone else can make the team is if Alina WDs from rusnats. Because then they will actually have to send the 2 top senior eligible ladies, since the coaches decision will have to be used on Alina (as she is the only russian lady this season who can challenge Kihira).

Samodurova has been REALLY begging to differ this season. Is Evgenia probably going to go? Yes. But Sofia has been extremely consistent this whole season and should at least be competitive over the 3rd spot. IMO barring any meltdowns from Alina or Elizaveta this competition really is about Evgenia vs Sofia and the fight for the 3rd spot.

 

[TripleAxelQueens3]

If Sofia and Zhenya both go clean then Zhenya will most likely go.

And not only that, if Zhenya and Liza are clean I think the former might have a higher score than the latter as well. I think that Zhenya will once again be awarded with al 9s in PCS, while her GOE will probably skyrocket too. This is just a prediction though. Maybe RusFed really did abandon her for Liza, in that case Zhenya’s worlds spot will be shaky.

1. It’s safe to say Alina will be first (or at least first of the seniors)
2. Second will be between Sasha, Zhenya and Liza
3. Third will be between Sasha, Zhenya, Liza, Anya and Sonya.

If they all skate clean then we might see something like this:

1. Alina
2. Sasha
3. Zhenya (or Liza)

but based off of their performances through the season:

1. Alina
2. Liza/Sasha
3. Zhenya/Sonya

I can’t quite see Sofia overtaking that third spot, but if Zhenya has another GP France performance, then it’s more than likely.

 

[moriel]

That would be so dumb and the ultimate proof of how flawed really is the system RusFed currently uses.

This way new coaching teams will never be able to merge, so you basically kill competition and that for sure will affect the whole presence of Russia in Ladies Figure Skating. (because you keep sending CSKA skaters who can't even skate 1 clean program, while leaving the others in juniors with few exceptions only for the other top teams).

Yes Eteri and Sergei made it but because they worked their a...s off, with years relegated in juniors with Polina Shelepen.

I was reading few days ago the article from sports.ru about the paradox of Serafima Sakhanovich: she has one the highest SB among the Russian ladies (better than Konstantinova and Samodurova even) and she isn't allowed to compete at Nationals, it makes absolutely no sense.

The system is as bad as any other. I mean, koreans are appearently forcing their top male skater to do tons of national competitions despite injury regardless his international results so far, or something like that.

To start with, Samodurova has higher SB than Sakhanovich.
Yep, Sakhanovich has a good SB. But she also scored 174.36 at Inge Solar Memorial, why wouldnt you count that, for example?
Under any criteria, someone will not be able to make nationals because you literally cannot send all minimally decent skaters to rusnats. Someone will be left out.

Yes, team Buianova is struggling, but also how fair it is to throw skaters who had great results in the past because of one bad season. After all, last season, they performed well enough to get GPs this season. Don't they also deserve a chance?
This season, Sima performed well enough to likely get GP spot next season, and make Nationals next season.

 

[Mathman]

Tuks deserve more love in PCS - she can sell her empress programmes even with less transitions.

This.

 

[moriel]

If Sofia S. skates clean at Nationals, I think it would be showing pure politics for Evgenia to go to Europeans or Worlds over Sofia unless Evgenia does a complete 180 from everything we've seen from her this year. Below is a breakdown on the technical side from their competitions this year.

Sofia:
GP Final - No under-rotations, no edge calls.
GP Russia - 1 under-rotation in the FS, clean in the short
GP Skate America - FS she had 1 edge call, clean in the short
CS Lombardia - her 'messiest' competition: 1 under-rotation in the FS and a single lutz, clean in the short

Evgenia:
GP France: FS: 1 fall and an under-rotated jump, SP an edge call
GP Canada: FS 2 edge calls and an under-rotation, SP, an edge call, missed combo and downgraded jump
CS Autumn Classic: FS: 1 edge call, an under-rotation and a fall, SP an edge call

Based on russian media, and including some rusfed representatives declarations, my guess is that Zhenya will not get any edge calls, and PCs at 9.5+ regardless of how she skates.
They have been extremely supported in the media so far.

 

[hippomoomin]

I don't think Evgenia is a lock for Worlds especially if Sofia is clean and she makes multiple mistakes. It's quite possible because her jumps are really not stable. We see how one mistake leads to another at her most recent competition. Competing at home may even put extra pressure on her. Since she does not really need an extra world medal, leaving out the competition may not be bad for her long term development. Going to Worlds and perform poorly is even worse.

 

[Sam L]

I was looking into getting new figure skating boots for myself and settled on Risport. It only now occurred to me how many Russian juniors are on Risport: Trusova, Scherbakova and Gumennik. Maybe this is the Risport generation after Edea?

 

[pearly]

I don't think Evgenia is a lock for Worlds especially if Sofia is clean and she makes multiple mistakes. It's quite possible because her jumps are really not stable. We see how one mistake leads to another at her most recent competition. Competing at home may even put extra pressure on her. Since she does not really need an extra world medal, leaving out the competition may not be bad for her long term development. Going to Worlds and perform poorly is even worse.

I agree completely. Maybe, if another skater - Sofia or someone else - does better at nationals Evgenia still gets Europeans and that other skater Worlds. I really don't think she will get many credits and it's probably best for her to continue working in peace without the pressure of going to major competitions.

 

[moriel]

I agree completely. Maybe, if another skater - Sofia or someone else - does better at nationals Evgenia still gets Europeans and that other skater Worlds. I really don't think she will get many credits and it's probably best for her to continue working in peace without the pressure of going to major competitions.

Rusfed tends to send same team to euros and worlds.
They stick to it even if someone performs poorly at Euros, for example.