2018-19 U.S. Ladies' figure skating

[skylark]

Just one point: Under the current skating system, a clean program with well-executed jumps will always score more than a messy one because of the importance of the GOE. The PCS that Ashley so heavily depended upon might not make the difference any more. No doubt that figured in her decision not to return to competition just as much as the surge in multi-revolution jumps did.

"No doubt"? Well ... I don't know about that. It's just possible that your mind-reading of Ashley, and your assumptions, are wrong on all counts. I've been following her. From what I've read, her decision not to return to competition had everything to do with the fact that she'd always had it in her mind that after the Olympic year of 2017-18, she would take the opportunity to find out what else of life she could explore, after devoting 22 years to her figure skating career. (And, she added, that career had been "a dream.") She felt she owed it to herself.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Did someone say ...No Doubt

 

[skylark]

^^^ :yes2: That was fun.

 

[klutzy]

In terms of results at Sochi, there's no reason to think Polina shouldn't have gone. She performed well there--placing higher at Sochi than Mirai Nagasu did at PyeongChang.

The real problem in 2014 is that Ashley bombed one of her skates--she was given an Olympics spot because her performance at Worlds had helped ensure three spots for the American Ladies. If she'd skated better at the US Championships, it wouldn't have been an issue. But she didn't.

She didn't bomb her skates in 2018, but by then the three spots were due to Karen Chen's perfomance at Worlds, so Ashley, in that sense, wasn't owed a favor. Chen, on the other hand, had delivered a clutch performance at Worlds.

The thing about you Ashley-ites is that you want it both ways--you wanted Ashley to get the benefit of the doubt in 2014 (which she did), but resented it when Karen Chen basically got the same thing in 2018--and Karen's Nationals performance in 2018 was better than Ashley's in 2014. There was no sign, last season, that Ashley was on upwards trajectory--she wasn't. She was using old programs; her PCS was good, but technically she was falling behind other top skaters. And her PCS wasn't at the level of a Kostner's, she's not one of the great artistic skaters.

I like Ashley's skates--I liked her Silver performance at Worlds, but I get tired of how Ashley's defenders trash other skaters because they think their girl was shortchanged. Polina Edmunds comes up because her silver placements at Nationals both happened, in part, because Ashley struggled with one of her skates. Doesn't mean Polina had no business getting second or going to the Olympics. Or that Ashley wouldn't have solidly beaten her on another day. But that's how competitions on ice work--they're not fully predictble. Karen Chen fans don't trash Bradie Tennell for her winning skates, even though they may not like how Bradie skates as much as they like the way Karen does, but I don't feel like she's trashed in the same way.

It's fine, IMO, to feel a skater is/was underappreciated and say why, but the ongoing harping about Ashley not getting this or that has gotten real old.

 

[evasorange]

She didn't bomb her skates in 2018, but by then the three spots were due to Karen Chen's perfomance at Worlds, so Ashley, in that sense, wasn't owed a favor. Chen, on the other hand, had delivered a clutch performance at Worlds.

The thing about you Ashley-ites is that you want it both ways--you wanted Ashley to get the benefit of the doubt in 2014 (which she did), but resented it when Karen Chen basically got the same thing in 2018--and Karen's Nationals performance in 2018 was better than Ashley's in 2014. There was no sign, last season, that Ashley was on upwards trajectory--she wasn't.

KarenHadAWorseSeason last year then Ashley! Karen was not owed any favor or on any upwards trajectory she’s just the feds favorite Like HOW many times does this need to be said/broken down! I love Ashley but I’m so bored of this. If you don’t get it by now, you are being willfully obtuse. Thank you next!

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

The thing about you Ashley-ites is that you want it both ways--you wanted Ashley to get the benefit of the doubt in 2014 (which she did), but resented it when Karen Chen basically got the same thing in 2018--and Karen's Nationals performance in 2018 was better than Ashley's in 2014. There was no sign, last season, that Ashley was on upwards trajectory--she wasn't. She was using old programs; her PCS was good, but technically she was falling behind other top skaters. And her PCS wasn't at the level of a Kostner's, she's not one of the great artistic skaters.

Ashley fully earned her 2014 spot based on her results leading up to Nationals that year. I think it's hard to argue otherwise. Given how the results unfolded in 2018, Karen deserved the spot. I don't think anyone is suggesting Ashley's 4th at Nationals should have put her on the team with her recent body of work. Rather, the argument for having Ashley on the team was if you believed she should have finished in 3rd instead of 4th at Nationals. Almost all of our women are chronic under rotators, and that particular flaw is penalized heavily, so any ordering could make sense IMO.

 

[Amei]

In terms of results at Sochi, there's no reason to think Polina shouldn't have gone. She performed well there--placing higher at Sochi than Mirai Nagasu did at PyeongChang.

The real problem in 2014 is that Ashley bombed one of her skates--she was given an Olympics spot because her performance at Worlds had helped ensure three spots for the American Ladies. If she'd skated better at the US Championships, it wouldn't have been an issue. But she didn't.

She didn't bomb her skates in 2018, but by then the three spots were due to Karen Chen's perfomance at Worlds, so Ashley, in that sense, wasn't owed a favor. Chen, on the other hand, had delivered a clutch performance at Worlds.

The thing about you Ashley-ites is that you want it both ways--you wanted Ashley to get the benefit of the doubt in 2014 (which she did), but resented it when Karen Chen basically got the same thing in 2018--and Karen's Nationals performance in 2018 was better than Ashley's in 2014. There was no sign, last season, that Ashley was on upwards trajectory--she wasn't. She was using old programs; her PCS was good, but technically she was falling behind other top skaters. And her PCS wasn't at the level of a Kostner's, she's not one of the great artistic skaters.

I like Ashley's skates--I liked her Silver performance at Worlds, but I get tired of how Ashley's defenders trash other skaters because they think their girl was shortchanged. Polina Edmunds comes up because her silver placements at Nationals both happened, in part, because Ashley struggled with one of her skates. Doesn't mean Polina had no business getting second or going to the Olympics. Or that Ashley wouldn't have solidly beaten her on another day. But that's how competitions on ice work--they're not fully predictble. Karen Chen fans don't trash Bradie Tennell for her winning skates, even though they may not like how Bradie skates as much as they like the way Karen does, but I don't feel like she's trashed in the same way.

It's fine, IMO, to feel a skater is/was underappreciated and say why, but the ongoing harping about Ashley not getting this or that has gotten real old.

Too add to your point, in 2018 the current body of work argument wasn't in her favor and the Fed took some negative press for picking her in 2014 when she didn't podium at Nationals and in Sochi she didn't exactly do anything that stood up and screamed that it was worth bad press. The 'body of work' argument to me is a lot like the comeback skater rule, it should only be applied once.

 

[Sai Bon]

Did someone say ...No Doubt

Well, that takes me back!

 

[frida80]

KarenHadAWorseSeason last year then Ashley! Karen was not owed any favor or on any upwards trajectory she’s just the feds favorite Like HOW many times does this need to be said/broken down! I love Ashley but I’m so bored of this. If you don’t get it by now, you are being willfully obtuse. Thank you next!

Actually, points wise they were break even. Yes, Ashley got a Bronze at SC. However that was with a score of 183.94. In comparison Karen got a 182 in USIC and a 183 in SA. Karen had a low point at SC when she decided to debut a new FS foolishly, but rebounded at SA by going back to her old programs. The body of work looks at scores as well, and Ashley's SC bronze just wasn't enough over look her low score over all.

In the end, before nationals I knew that Bradie would win because of her awesome performance at SA she was the top scoring skater, and a solid choice for the SP at the Team Event. Mirai would be second because she was the second top scorers and her FS was pretty consistent by that point making her her the 2nd woman for the team event. After those two spots, that last spot was expendable. It would be between Ashley or Karen, and if the two of them bombed the would give it to Mariah.

I thought it would go to Ashley until the moment she debuted a brand new program at Nationals. That's when I knew she wasn't going. The committee needed to judge programs that had been in international competition. There was no telling how she would score with a brand new program. Plus new programs often have lots of mistakes in the beginning. If only she had started the season with it, they would've given her the benefit of the doubt.

I honestly don't know how Ashley would've done at the Olympics. The field was far deeper than Sochi. Most of us guessed that US ladies wouldn't score higher than 8th or 9th, and that was accurate. But I do think it would've taken a lot of the pressure off Mirai and Bradie. Ashley gone to Worlds every year since 2012 and medaled in 2016. She's been to Sochi. So all the publicity would've been if she could make the podium. No heavy pressure on two girls with little Worlds experience and weren't used to having the pressure of the nation on them. They both could've skated more freely. Maybe had a moment like Sarah did in 2002. Not to mention Ashley's incredible fighting spirit. I think if she had a chance to just do MR at the Olympics just one more time and make that her swan song, no one would've cried about results and just marveled at how beautiful moment was. Maybe Karen would've cried over being in 4th, but come back fired up the next season.

But what happened happened. We can't go back and change it. Ashley has apparently retired. She's finding her voice now as a writer and in media clearly. She honestly has just the right polish for both. It's odd seeing her in Boston. Then I realize it's the city of her saddest moment and then her greatest triumph. It's exactly where she belongs.

 

[klutzy]

Karen's fourth-place finish at Worlds was the reason that there were three spots for American women. Without her fourth place, there was no third spot. The same was true of Ashley's performance in 2014 and this was used to justify sending Ashley over Mirai. Grand Prix finishes are indicative, but aren't as big a deciding factor as Worlds and National finishes from what I can see.

And Ashley didn't have a great 2017 season--not the kind that justified sending her over Karen when neither had brilliant skates, but Karen eked out third place--thanks, I think, to her going back to her old successful programs. Both she and Ashley second-guessed themselves on programs last year. And, ultimately, Karen took the wiser course, introducing a new program at Nationals was risky. I saw the FS live--LaLa Land was okay, but only okay--mostly I noticed the costume. If Ashley had skated and tweaked it over the Fall, who knows what the performance might have been?

What I really remember from the FS is how many girls fell, Starr Andrews' poise, the height of Mirai's triple axel in the warm-up and the speed of Bradie's rotations.

 

[rlopen]

Everyone says that Karen going back to old programs helped her, but Ashley’s OLD SP lost to Karen’s whereas Ashley’s NEW FS beat Karen’s. I honestly just really don’t think dont think it was new vs old i think it was judging pcs manipulation

 

[rlopen]

Like I just want to genuinely know why people think it was because of a new FS knowing that Ashley’s new FS did better than Karen’s and that it was in the SP where Ashley was TRULY buried...not in the FS. (She got around the same PCS if not slightly better than what she got internationally whereas in the SP was where she was truly shafted.) I just can’t help but think USFSA wanted new programs from Ashley whereas they love Karen so much, like truly they always have been ready to shower her with high scores, that they would be willing to overlook old programs. Maybe I was wrong in saying a few pages back that USFSA merely tolerated Ashley. I actually think now (when looking back on it) they just love Karen so much that whoever was gonna rival her would be shafted for her. I don’t think it was anti-Ashley as much as it was pro-Karen.

 

[georgia]

Just one point: Under the current skating system, a clean program with well-executed jumps will always score more than a messy one because of the importance of the GOE. The PCS that Ashley so heavily depended upon might not make the difference any more. No doubt that figured in her decision not to return to competition just as much as the surge in multi-revolution jumps did.

No American skater was better during Ashley’s years than Ashley. End of the story. The proof is her record! You can say whatever, but you judge the skater during her era.

 

[klutzy]

Gracie Gold placed ahead of Ashley at the Olympics and won two U.S. championships. If she'd skated Firebird at Worlds the way she skated it at Nationals, she'd have won the Gold at Worlds in 2016--her short was the highest-scored short by an American woman at Worlds.

So, yes, Gracie Gold had moments where she was better than Ashley during Ashley's years. Ashley Wagner was no Michelle Kwan when it came to dominance. Other skaters outjumped her, outscored her and beat her at various points through her career. You could argue that she was the most successful skater of her time--but that's very different than saying "no skater was better"--that's simply not true.

 

[SorrySkater]

Karen's fourth-place finish at Worlds was the reason that there were three spots for American women. Without her fourth place, there was no third spot. The same was true of Ashley's performance in 2014 and this was used to justify sending Ashley over Mirai. Grand Prix finishes are indicative, but aren't as big a deciding factor as Worlds and National finishes from what I can see.

Didn’t the US have 3 spots because of the combined placements of Ashley and Karen?

 

[Mathman]

Why do some skaters receive higher scores than others day in and day out? It's not about reputation, it's about certain qualities such as speed or flow or program composition. ...

You present a well-defined thesis, you back it up with actual data, and point to a remedy.

But I do have a question about the consistency of these basics day in and day out. It seems possible that a skater can have relatively good days and bad days even on things like speed over the ice, depth and control of edges, efficiency of stoking ("effortless acceleration"), etc. One competition a skater is on fire, the next she can't seem to find the groove. (?)

As for composition, although the choreographer's intent may be the same every time, sometimes we see a great rendition and sometimes the movements are not quite so precise, the emotional content delivered not quite so convincingly, etc.

The difference between 8.75 and 9.25 in SS may not be as easy to spot as the difference between falling and remaining upright, but I do think that it is possible for a judge to discern differences from one performance to another for the same skater. Some times a consistently very good skater has an off day (or an inconsistent one skates beyond herself).

 

[chuckm]

BTW---just to set the record straight on another point: Ashley was NOT the only US woman to make the GPF in recent years. Gracie Gold won silver and gold in the 2015 GP and made the GPF. That year Ashley made it too, but with gold and a 4th place; it was the last year Ashley made the GPF.

 

[skylark]

Didn’t the US have 3 spots because of the combined placements of Ashley and Karen?

Yes. In 2013, 2014, 2015 , 2016, and 2o17, Ashley's high placements at world's, combined with Gracie's 4 times and Karen's once, earned the USA 3 spots. Now we're back to 2.

 

[Bluediamonds09]

Have we heard anything from the other US ladies who could make a small splash at nationals? We haven’t been hearing from Amber Glenn, Courtney Hicks, Angela Wang, or Megan Wessenberg, really.

 

[frida80]

Have we heard anything from the other US ladies who could make a small splash at nationals? We haven’t been hearing from Amber Glenn, Courtney Hicks, Angela Wang, or Megan Wessenberg, really.

Amber had a good Sectional and scored 181. Megan had a hand injury at Golden Spin had scored awfully low. She also had a touch sectionals with a lot of pops. I’ve heard nothing from Courtney or Angela.