2018-19 U.S. Ladies' figure skating

[LiamForeman]

I'm almost positive that Bebe went to SrNats at age 12 in 2001, just like Kwan did in 1993. I was a huge fan of Bebe. But even without a 3axel (which really is a weak jump for Alysa, shouldn''t get more than GOE 0 on a best day) Alysa is lightyears ahead IMO in terms of presentation and quality of elements. She reminds me of NNN in 1999 whose elements were amazing too, but Alysa doesn't have to learn a lutz or a 3/3 unlike NNN. I think Alysa is so far ahead of the game just in terms of basics, I would not be surprised if she wins USN.

 

[Ice Dance]

I'm almost positive that Bebe went to SrNats at age 12 in 2001, just like Kwan did in 1993.

I was thinking Beatrisa was the one who was 12 and Michelle was 13, but Wikipedia says the reverse. I'm sure there are fans with better memories than both Wikipedia and me. (Either that or with better research skills than me). Nonetheless, Alysa will not be the first 13-year-old at U.S. Senior Nationals. (And, btw, neither of those ladies won or medaled at it then so I don't see any need to heap loads of expectations on Alysa. She'll do the best she can, and she'll learn from the experience just as they did).

 

[frida80]

It’s easy to for USFS to not allow Alysa to win. Just look at US Champs men’s in 2016. Nathan landed four quads but still got third and Adam won after falling and under rotating his only quad.

 

[gkelly]

I was thinking Beatrisa was the one who was 12 and Michelle was 13, but Wikipedia says the reverse. I'm sure there are fans with better memories than both Wikipedia and me. (Either that or with better research skills than me).

They were both 12: Kwan, born July 1980, in 1993, and Liang, born March 1988, in 2001. (Remember, Nationals is held in January – in the past, sometimes in February; so the years they turned 13 later in the year they were still 12 at Nationals.)
Both finished 6[SUP]th[/SUP] in their first senior seasons.

Carol Heiss, for example, was born in January 1940 and placed 2nd at 1953 Nationals. I'd have to check elsewhere if that was before or after her birthday. In any case, she did go to Worlds that year, placing 4th, when she was already 13. That was a different era, with no age limits internationally AFAIK, and also no junior circuit.

I believe that Priscilla Hill was the youngest senior ladies' competitor at Nationals as an 11-year-old.

I think there have also occasionally been young pre-teen girls skating senior pairs.

It’s easy to for USFS to not allow Alysa to win. Just look at US Champs men’s in 2016. Nathan landed four quads but still got third and Adam won after falling and under rotating his only quad.

It's not that easy. If there were some conspiracy to make sure skater A wins or skater B doesn't win, there would have to be a plan for the tech panel to downgrade many of B's jumps even if they looked clean in real time and on video, and to call all of A's jumps as clean unless they were really obviously not rotated, and for the panel to award level 4 to all A's non-jump elements whether deserved or not and to none of B's even if deserved.

Of course it would also help for judges in on the plan to intentionally inflate GOEs and PCS for A and intentionally undermark B.

But all that cheating could do would be to shift the probability strongly in A's favor. If A had a great performance and B really bombed, there wouldn't be much the cheaters could do to shift the results the opposite direction.

Assuming the plan was to be more subtle about just giving A some edge over B, to tip a close contest in A's direction but otherwise let the chips fall where they may, then the conspirators would have even less control. The tech panel doesn't know what GOEs and PCS the judges are awarding. The judges don't know what levels the tech panel is calling. And all of them are too busy actually calling and scoring all the skaters to keep close track of the math within a point or two, including PCS factoring for the ladies and remembering the exact short program scores of each of the contenders. They don't have the necessary information to keep track any closer than that at all.

If judges know that B outjumped A significantly but believe that skater A outskated and outperformed B, they can make a point of scoring A much higher than B on GOEs and PCS. But they can't calculate how the TES and PCS will balance each other for these two skaters and for any others down to tenths and hundredths of points. Even if they try to force a win for A, and even if both skaters perform more or less as expected, if it's a close contest a few little miscalculations could give B the win after all.

And then the conspiracy theorists would accuse the judges after the fact of intentionally giving the win to B.

 

[frida80]

They were both 12: Kwan, born July 1980, in 1993, and Liang, born March 1988, in 2001. (Remember, Nationals is held in January – in the past, sometimes in February; so the years they turned 13 later in the year they were still 12 at Nationals.)
Both finished 6[SUP]th[/SUP] in their first senior seasons.

Carol Heiss, for example, was born in January 1940 and placed 2nd at 1953 Nationals. I'd have to check elsewhere if that was before or after her birthday. In any case, she did go to Worlds that year, placing 4th, when she was already 13. That was a different era, with no age limits internationally AFAIK, and also no junior circuit.

I believe that Priscilla Hill was the youngest senior ladies' competitor at Nationals as an 11-year-old.

I think there have also occasionally been young pre-teen girls skating senior pairs.



It's not that easy. If there were some conspiracy to make sure skater A wins or skater B doesn't win, there would have to be a plan for the tech panel to downgrade many of B's jumps even if they looked clean in real time and on video, and to call all of A's jumps as clean unless they were really obviously not rotated, and for the panel to award level 4 to all A's non-jump elements whether deserved or not and to none of B's even if deserved.

Of course it would also help for judges in on the plan to intentionally inflate GOEs and PCS for A and intentionally undermark B.

But all that cheating could do would be to shift the probability strongly in A's favor. If A had a great performance and B really bombed, there wouldn't be much the cheaters could do to shift the results the opposite direction.

Assuming the plan was to be more subtle about just giving A some edge over B, to tip a close contest in A's direction but otherwise let the chips fall where they may, then the conspirators would have even less control. The tech panel doesn't know what GOEs and PCS the judges are awarding. The judges don't know what levels the tech panel is calling. And all of them are too busy actually calling and scoring all the skaters to keep close track of the math within a point or two, including PCS factoring for the ladies and remembering the exact short program scores of each of the contenders. They don't have the necessary information to keep track any closer than that at all.

If judges know that B outjumped A significantly but believe that skater A outskated and outperformed B, they can make a point of scoring A much higher than B on GOEs and PCS. But they can't calculate how the TES and PCS will balance each other for these two skaters and for any others down to tenths and hundredths of points. Even if they try to force a win for A, and even if both skaters perform more or less as expected, if it's a close contest a few little miscalculations could give B the win after all.

And then the conspiracy theorists would accuse the judges after the fact of intentionally giving the win to B.

You don’t need the tech controller. Alysa’s BV in her FS is only ten points higher than Bradie’s. 73.42 vs. 63.83. All the judges have to do is avoid giving Alysa massive GOE and go overboard with Bradie GOE and PCS. Also Alysa won’t get a PCS score higher than 56, or an average of 7. Juniors never get higher than that on the JGP. Bradie will probably get around 72-74. A difference of about 16-18. This actually been happening for years. Judges will inflate the GOE and PCS scores of the ones they want to promote and avoid inflating the ones they don’t. It’s not a conspiracy. Judges just don’t like over rewarding new skater until they earn it. There are some rare exceptions, but Alysa is definitely not winning nationals even if she hits every jump. Keep in mind, she never has.

 

[Ice Dance]

There is no "definitely" in the sport of figure skating, especially when you have more technical difficulty.

For clarification's sake, I assume that you mean Alysa has not hit every jump with her brand new jump format including the three triple axels (1 in the short, 2 in the long) or the version she did at regionals with the attempted 4Lz. She hit all her jumps at Junior Nationals last year, which included 3F3T in the SP and 3Lz3T and 3F+1Lo+3S in the free.

 

[andromache]

You don’t need the tech controller. Alysa’s BV in her FS is only ten points higher than Bradie’s. 73.42 vs. 63.83. All the judges have to do is avoid giving Alysa massive GOE and go overboard with Bradie GOE and PCS. Also Alysa won’t get a PCS score higher than 56, or an average of 7. Juniors never get higher than that on the JGP. Bradie will probably get around 72-74. A difference of about 16-18. This actually been happening for years. Judges will inflate the GOE and PCS scores of the ones they want to promote and avoid inflating the ones they don’t. It’s not a conspiracy. Judges just don’t like over rewarding new skater until they earn it. There are some rare exceptions, but Alysa is definitely not winning nationals even if she hits every jump. Keep in mind, she never has.

I'm inclined to agree with this. I don't think USFS will want to have a 12 year old as National Champion - it will make whoever they send to senior Worlds look bad. USFS wants at least one of the girls they send to Worlds to have the National Champion title to give them a little boost internationally. Especially since there's only two spots and whichever two ladies go to Worlds will need all the help they can get in trying to get back 3 spots (which seems unlikely to happen tbh).

Alysa will only win Nationals if all of the favored senior-eligible ladies really bomb and Alysa is clean.

Next year may be different. If Alysa does well on the JGP and could realistically win Junior Worlds, USFS won't mind the possibility of her winning the national title.

 

[MarinHondas]

I'm inclined to agree with this. I don't think USFS will want to have a 12 year old as National Champion - it will make whoever they send to senior Worlds look bad. USFS wants at least one of the girls they send to Worlds to have the National Champion title to give them a little boost internationally. Especially since there's only two spots and whichever two ladies go to Worlds will need all the help they can get in trying to get back 3 spots (which seems unlikely to happen tbh).

Alysa will only win Nationals if all of the favored senior-eligible ladies really bomb and Alysa is clean.

Next year may be different. If Alysa does well on the JGP and could realistically win Junior Worlds, USFS won't mind the possibility of her winning the national title.

I agree! I mean she's not even jr worlds eligible. It's too much. I think Alysa will be third if she goes pretty clean. Fourth or fifth with a couple mistakes. She will be up there but won't win.

 

[Mathman]

I don't think that the USFSA would try to fix U.S. Nationals just because they want an older skater to win.

In 2008, Mirai Nagusu won (too young for senior worlds), Rachael Flatt was second (too young for senior worlds) and Caroline Zhang was 4th (too young for senior worlds). The Worlds team consisted of the third place finisher (Ashley Wagner), the fifth place finisher (Bebe Liang) and the 7th place finisher, 2006 World Champion Kimmie Meissner.

They did skip over the 6th place finisher Katrina Hacker in order to send Meissner to Worlds, but that is a different question -- they didn't rig the scores at U.S. Nationals in order to put an older skater on the podium, even a world champion.

 

[MarinHondas]

I don't think that the USFSA would try to fix U.S. Nationals just because they want an older skater to win.

In 2008, Mirai Nagusu won (too young for senior worlds), Rachael Flatt was second (too young for senior worlds) and Caroline Zhang was 4th (too young for senior worlds). The Worlds team consisted of the third place finisher (Ashley Wagner), the fifth place finisher (Bebe Liang) and the 7th place finisher, 2006 World Champion Kimmie Meissner.

They did skip over the 6th place finisher Katrina Hacker in order to send Meissner to Worlds, but that is a different question -- they didn't rig the scores at U.S. Nationals in order to put an older skater on the podium, even a world champion.

The difference is when Mirai, Rachael and Caroline podiumed or won(Mirai) they COULD go to junior worlds and competed on the JGP and medaled. If Alysa wins they are essentially saying that a NOVICE skater is better than any senior they have and consequently a novice skater is their national champion, "gold" standard. I am not sure if it's a fix. Bradie isn't a PCS skater but she has a lot more speed than Alysa, I also think her presence is better at times. I couldn't say the same last year but there's been quite the improvement. Mariah definitely has Alysa in all PCS areas. Karen the same as Mariah but with lesser jumps.

 

[chopinskate]

Is Liu even good enough to win? Idk how consistent her big jumps are, and if she doesn't land them, her basics, compared to seniors, will detract even more.

 

[Mathman]

... I am not sure if it's a fix. Bradie isn't a PCS skater but she has a lot more speed than Alysa, I also think her presence is better at times. I couldn't say the same last year but there's been quite the improvement. Mariah definitely has Alysa in all PCS areas. Karen the same as Mariah but with lesser jumps.

I agree with that. No, it is not a fix if one skater is better than another at Skating Skills, Musical Interpretation, etc. That's how the scoring system goes.

But that will take care of itself. If Brady deserves higher PCS than Alyssa, then she should get them. There is no need for the USFSA to artificially hold down one skater and prop up another, just to spare the U.S. Senior Worlds team embarrassment.

 

[chuckm]

Mirai, Rachel and Caroline were all too young for Worlds, but at least they were all old enough for JUNIOR Worlds. At the time they placed so high, there was no outstanding senior lady to challenge them for a top placement.

That is not the case in the current environment, with Bradie having finished top 6 at the previous Worlds and Mariah Bell making a promising showing at Skate Canada, and Alysa Liu too young even for Junior Worlds.

 

[andromache]

I don't think that the USFSA would try to fix U.S. Nationals just because they want an older skater to win.

I don't really see it as fixing or rigging. Kimmie Meissner skated really, really badly in 2008. (At least I assume so.....anyone know where to find the protocols? I'd actually be interested to see how that scoring shook out. It was a wild year.)

Just like international judges, national judges have an idea of how someone is going to skate, where they're going to rank among their competition. Someone from Sectionals who has never been to Nationals or an international competition? They're going to earn lower PCS/GOE than a lady who had two GP events and placed 6th at Worlds. Someone who is too young for senior or junior worlds is going to earn less PCS/GOE than a "favorite" for the world team like Bradie or Mariah. It's a bit of a "wait your turn" mentality, combined with the reality that a 12 year old is just less likely to be as good of a skater/performer than someone with a few more years of years of experience.

Alysa COULD become national champion, but it's only gonna happen from an insurmountable TES advantage and/or the "favorites" skating badly.

Skating is at least partially about perception and reputation.

 

[frida80]

I don't think that the USFSA would try to fix U.S. Nationals just because they want an older skater to win.

In 2008, Mirai Nagusu won (too young for senior worlds), Rachael Flatt was second (too young for senior worlds) and Caroline Zhang was 4th (too young for senior worlds). The Worlds team consisted of the third place finisher (Ashley Wagner), the fifth place finisher (Bebe Liang) and the 7th place finisher, 2006 World Champion Kimmie Meissner.

They did skip over the 6th place finisher Katrina Hacker in order to send Meissner to Worlds, but that is a different question -- they didn't rig the scores at U.S. Nationals in order to put an older skater on the podium, even a world champion.

It's not "older" skater. It's their current star skater. Having her lose to Alysa would be a bad look in any case not to mention the extreme hype Alysa would suffer. Look at poor Young. National champ at 11 and can't seem to shake off the pressure of being the next Yuna Kim.

In 2008, the entire podium has earned the boost. Mirai had just won the JGPF and Rachel had come in second. Caroline, Mirai and Ashley has swept the JW podium in 2007. These were major accomplishments that would impress the judges enough to not depress their scores. It also helped that everyone else wasn't that good that year.

Bradie is consistent, has tough combos and a high BV. If she nails her programs she'll win by a good margin. Alysa may make the podium, but 1st is very unlikely.

 

[concorde]

I'm inclined to agree with this. I don't think USFS will want to have a 12 year old as National Champion.

Minor correction. Alysa is now 13.
If she were still 12, she would not be eliglbe for the JGP until the year after next. Since she is now 13, she is eligible for JGP next season.

 

[kwanatic]

I'm saying it right now: I would not be shocked if Alysa wins nationals in January.

If she goes out and hits her jumps, I could see the judges boosting her to a win. It doesn't matter that she's only 13 years old. There is none of that kind of technical ability/ambition among the rest of the US women's field at this time and I don't doubt they'd want to reward it. Alysa has it and if she can make it materialize at nationals, I'd bet the judges will do everything they can to boost her up. She'll be the only US junior capable of competing with the next Trusova/Shcherbakova/Kostornaia-like skaters coming into the junior ranks next year. I'd imagine they want to position her well. Plus, with Alysa not eligible to go to worlds, they still get to send the veterans. Skate America aside, being the US champion hasn't counted for much internationally for a long time so it's not like coming into worlds as the US silver or bronze medalist will matter for whoever they send...

I feel as though Bradie is still the #1 and will be unless Mariah turns in a stellar performance or Gracie comes back on form...but if they falter or if Alysa outshines them, I can totally see her coming out on top. PCS gaps are easy to make up at nationals especially if there's a sizable TES gap. If Alysa executes her content (which someone mentioned is roughly 10 points higher) then expect the judges to lather on the GOE. That 10 point advantage balloons to 15-20 points...way more than enough to make up a 7 or 8 point difference in PCS. I don't agree with it but that doesn't change the fact that it's very doable, especially if the skater skates cleanly.

People are saying there's no way and definitely won't happen...

All I'm saying there is most definitely a way and it very well might.

 

[frida80]

I'm saying it right now: I would not be shocked if Alysa wins nationals in January.

If she goes out and hits her jumps, I could see the judges boosting her to a win. It doesn't matter that she's only 13 years old. There is none of that kind of technical ability/ambition among the rest of the US women's field at this time and I don't doubt they'd want to reward it. Alysa has it and if she can make it materialize at nationals, I'd bet the judges will do everything they can to boost her up. She'll be the only US junior capable of competing with the next Trusova/Shcherbakova/Kostornaia-like skaters coming into the junior ranks next year. I'd imagine they want to position her well. Plus, with Alysa not eligible to go to worlds, they still get to send the veterans. Skate America aside, being the US champion hasn't counted for much internationally for a long time so it's not like coming into worlds as the US silver or bronze medalist will matter for whoever they send...

I feel as though Bradie is still the #1 and will be unless Mariah turns in a stellar performance or Gracie comes back on form...but if they falter or if Alysa outshines them, I can totally see her coming out on top. PCS gaps are easy to make up at nationals especially if there's a sizable TES gap. If Alysa executes her content (which someone mentioned is roughly 10 points higher) then expect the judges to lather on the GOE. That 10 point advantage balloons to 15-20 points...way more than enough to make up a 7 or 8 point difference in PCS. I don't agree with it but that doesn't change the fact that it's very doable, especially if the skater skates cleanly.

People are saying there's no way and definitely won't happen...

All I'm saying there is most definitely a way and it very well might.

We're not saying that Alysa won't win nationals. But based on history its extremely unlikely. I have to say this again. In 2016, Nathan Chen landed four clean quads when barely anyone else was landing one. The winner fell and underrotated on his only quad. It doesn't matter if you have the tech unless you have the results to back it up. Alysa commonly underrotated her 3A. People are talking like she's been landing 4Lz for years when she's only attempted one and fell on it. I think people are getting way too ahead of themselves and ignoring that TPTB tend to ignore skaters unless they earn it. Just look at the next year with Nathan. When he came into nationals he had the highest FS men's score in US history and highest combined and was the first man to win a GPF medal since 2009. After that his scores sky rocketed at nationals. Even he said before nationals, it would be better this time because he wasn't coming in as a nobody.

Gracie didn't win nationals in 2013, even though the judges had ever reason to let her win. She had to earn it first. Once she had a good placement at Worlds and Frank, that was all she what she needed. This happens over and over.

 

[chopinskate]

This discussion has gone on for longer than Liu has been on the senior and junior circuit combined.

 

[Metis]

I seriously doubt Liu will win Nats. But I think there’s a chance that she could edge out Karen or Mariah for third or fourth, which could be a factor in who goes to Worlds.