Prediction for Ladies GPs taking account of above, and assuming Carolina Kostner and Ashley Wagner retire/don’t skate next year. Also Gracie Gold doesn’t return as comeback/return skater. Also that invites are in strict SB order once guaranteed spots and host picks are taken account of – in practice this is very close, 1 or 2 skaters miss out, 1 or 2 gain, but it’s very close. Also that any age eligible juniors turn senior – it’ll be the start of a new quad, so introducing won’t do any harm if it’s a bit early, plus with the strength of Russian juniors it may be best to strike while the iron is hot and not lose any momentum in your career.
Guaranteed 2 spots – Osmond, Higuchi, Miyahara, Zagitova, Tennell, Daleman, Sotskova, Hendrickx, Nagasu, Tursynbaeva, Bell
Guaranteed 1 spot via top 24 SB, but in practice 2 due to number of spots to fill – Medvedeva, Sakamoto, Mihara, Tsurskaya, Radionova, Konstantinova, Choi, Honda, Tuktamysheva, Panenkova, Matsuda, Yamashita
Guaranteed 1 spot via top 24 WS – Chen, Hongo, Rajicova, Schott, Lecavalier
Host Picks – USA 1 (Starr Andrews? Ting Cui?), Canada 2 (Alaine Chartrand/Larkyn Austman?), Russia 1 (Pogorilaya/Gubanova?), Japan 1 (Kihira?), France 2 (3?) (Lecavalier + Meite. Julie Froetscher/Lea Serna if 3?), China 2 (Xiangning Li + Ziquan Zhao)
Running total 60 spots.
Invites (in SB order) – Russian number 18 spot (Samodurova, but Pogorilaya?), Japan number 17 and 18 spots (Hongo/Kihira/Shiraiwa fighting it out), Eun-Soo Lim, Karen Chen (2nd spot), Angela Wang, Courtney Hicks, Ting Cui, Han-Ul Kim, Nicole Rajicova, Xiangning Li, Nicole Schott - last ones may miss out if Kostner/Wagner don’t retire for example (Carolina would get 2 spots, but Ashley only 1, would need the Host Pick to get a 2nd).
Next in line if further retirements/years off, skaters not being put forward etc.
Starr Andrews, Emmy Ma, Alaine Chartrand, Mae Berenice Meite, So Hyan An, Kailani Craine, Ye Lim Kim, Matilda Algotsson, Viveca Lindfors, Lea Johanna Dastich, Alexia Paganini.
Re-arranging by country –
Russia 18 spots – Medvedeva, Zagitova, Sotskova, Radionova, Tuktamysheva, Tsurskaya, Konstantinova, Panenkova 2, Samodurova (Pogorilaya?) 1, Host Pick 1 (Pogorilaya/Gubanova?)
Japan 18 spots – Miyahara, Higuchi, Sakamoto, Mihara, Honda, Matsuda, Yamashita, Hongo 2, Kihira 1, Host Pick 1 (Kihira?). Will Shiraiwa be put forward rather than Matusda? Might Yuhana Yokoi get a slot?
USA 12 spots – Tennell, Nagasu, Chen, Bell 2, Wang, Hicks, Cui 1. Host Pick 1 (Starr Andrews?). Will Wang and Hicks have their names put forward? Hicks wasn’t on initial selection last year, despite Seasons Best higher than many that were.
Canada 6 spots – Osmond, Daleman 2. Host Picks 2 (Chartrand/Austman?).
Korea 4 spots – Choi 2, Han-Ul Kim 1, Eun-Soo Lim 1.
France 3 spots – Lecavalier 2 (1 Host), Mae Berenice Meite 1 (Host Pick). 3rd host pick?
China 3 spots – Xiangning Li 2 (1 Host), Ziquan Zhao 1 (Host)
Belgium 2 spots – Hendrickx 2
Slovakia 2 spots – Rajicova 2
Kazakhstan 2 spots – Tursynbaeva 2
Germany 2 spots – Nicole Schott 2
Just missing out, but will be next in line – Starr Andrews, Emmy Ma, Alaine Chartrand, Mae Berenice Meite, So Hyan An, Kailani Craine, Ye Lim Kim, Matilda Algotsson, Viveca Lindfors, Lea Johanna Dastich, Alexia Paganini.
