2021-2022 U.S. Men's Figure Skating

[Tahuu]

^ Four words.

Rising star vs also-ran.

 

[sheetz]

I think Ilia doesn't necessarily need to be perfect from here on out, he just needs to show steady improvements. Figure skating is so much about momentum that if he appears to be on an upward trajectory it may be enough to put him in the top 3 if one of the other top US men starts looking shaky.

 

[figureskatingandrainbows]

As much as I think Ilia could have a fantastic Nats and isn't totally out of the running for an Olympic spot, it would be really unlikely. He is a junior man. He is still growing physically and learning to skate. He has not been in a high-pressure international senior event or even senior Nats before. In fact, he hasn't even been to Junior Nats before and finished 16th at Junior Worlds 2020. He does not have the spins or artistry or skating skills to make him a fan or judge's favorite. Vincent has improved just as much as Ilia, and is proving to be more reliable. Jason is also looking really solid and is likely going as the "personable fan favorite". And Nathan is a lock for the team barring a serious injury, and even then he might go. Could Ilia, if he had a fabulous Nats, be an alternate for the Olympic team? Yes. He's much more likely to be picked for 4CC - the USFSA won't send their Olympic team to 4CC since it's just a few weeks off the Olympics. There is no doubt that he is a great talent who has made huge leaps over the past year, but he has a lot of work left if he want to go to the Olympics.

 

[mrrice]

Two words.

Ross Miner.

2022 will be a very different selection process than 2014. I think Ilia is young, talented and driven, but there would need to be a perfect storm of meltdowns from other skaters and Ilia landing every quad in every comp from here on in for that to happen. I'm not saying it can't, I'm saying a podium finish at Nats won't ensure it.

ETA: Whether or not I personally believe podiums at Nats should ensure it is another matter.

I'm going to add Mirai to this list as well. Remember 2014 when she was passed over for Ashley for the Olympic Team. The Fed Loves Jason and unless Vincent has a horrible season and falls behind his best, I still see this years World Team going to the games, Even if he skates badly ( Which Is Rare ) The Fed will send Nathan no matter what?

 

[cheerknithanson]

Even if Ilia doesn't make the Olympic team (Which honestly is the most likely outcome considering how strong Vincent, Nathan, and Jason are), being at 4CC and (Key Word) POTENTIALLY snagging a medal would be a great boost for him.

If he keeps improving on spins, artistry, consistency, etc, 2026 shouldn't be much of a big issue too much (Barring serious injuries of course).

 

[Hyena]

I'm not convinced we'll have a repeat of 2018 even if Ilia ends up on the podium. IMO Nathan is the only one with his slot firmly locked down. If Ilia continues to improve and then grabs second at Nationals, I could see them sending him over Vincent or Jason (whoever ends up out of the top 3). I felt awful for Ross, but he pretty much never put together any other competitions like his 2018 Nationals. I don't think Ilia would be in the same boat.

This isn't to put any more pressure on Ilia (I get the sense he puts pretty much all the pressure on himself), just to say that I don't think things are cut and dry for the Olympics. There are a few permutations I could see of the eventual team.

 

[el henry]

I don’t understand why the fact that Ilia is younger makes a difference? Then again, I never understood “oh send the young guns to the Olys and let them get experience” argument. The Olys is not where you send young folks to get experience

It could be that Ilia has both some sort of lights out season and ends up on the Nats podium. And then gets sent to the Olys. But IMO *both* is what it would take. And right now, even though he won the JGP, that free skate was hardly lights out.

The US men do have a plethora of riches.

 

[Weathergal]

^ If Ilia got silver at Nationals, he’ll go to Beijing. Just look at Polina Edmunds in her Olympic season as a junior in 2013 - 2 golds at JGPs, 4th at JGPF and silver at Nationals. She has no senior international experience and no body of work to back her up and was selected to the Olympic team.

I can see where you're coming from, but I think - and I don't mean to diss the US women at that time - but the US women's field wasn't as strong at the time as the US men's field is now, making it more difficult for an up-and-comer.

Also I like Ilia and wish him well. I really enjoyed his SP at Courchevel. I'm impressed with the improvements he's made. But I think the leap to Olympic contender may be a bit premature. Not only do we really need to see where Nathan, Jason, and Vincent are in, say, December, but also Yaroslav Paniot, Maxim Naumov and Jimmy Ma. Quite frankly though, it's great that we can all have these discussions because it means we have some exciting skaters to talk about!

 

[el henry]

I'm going to add Mirai to this list as well. Remember 2014 when she was passed over for Ashley for the Olympic Team. The Fed Loves Jason and unless Vincent has a horrible season and falls behind his best, I still see this years World Team going to the games, Even if he skates badly ( Which Is Rare ) The Fed will send Nathan no matter what?

Nathan could skate like Priyam Tated (the Indian skater at JGP Courchevel) at Nats (and don’t get me wrong I adore and respect Priyam) and still get selected for the Oly team.

Absent the apocalypse, he’s there

 

[yelyoh]

Team will be Nathan and Jason and Vincent. Ilia could be top six at Nats. Jimmy, Yaro, Maxim, Tomoki, Andrew, another junior will be top ten.
Notice I did not include Camden.

 

[readernick]

I don’t understand why the fact that Ilia is younger makes a difference? Then again, I never understood “oh send the young guns to the Olys and let them get experience” argument. The Olys is not where you send young folks to get experience

It could be that Ilia has both some sort of lights out season and ends up on the Nats podium. And then gets sent to the Olys. But IMO *both* is what it would take. And right now, even though he won the JGP, that free skate was hardly lights out.

The US men do have a plethora of riches.

Yes, he might be a great skater to send to pre-Olympics 4CC or post-Olympics Worlds for experience. However, you don't send a skater to the Olympics for experience. You do it because you think he is the skater most likely to excel in his given position. By that measure, Nathan, Vincent, and Jason seem like solid bets. However, we will see how the season goes. ( Obviously, Nathan will go.. But the other two still have to prove themselves a bit)

 

[mrrice]

Yes, he might be a great skater send to pre-Olympics 4CC or post-Olympics Worlds for experience. However, you don't send a skater to the Olympics for experience. You do it because you think they are the skater most likely to excel in their given position. By that measure, Nathan, Vincent, and Jason seem like solid bets. However, we will see how the season goes. ( Obviously, Nathan will go.. But the other two still have to prove themselves a bit)

You know that saying "If It Aint Broke, Don't Fix It" That's how I feel about our top 3 Men going into the Olympics. Yaroslav was next and I think he's still not available for the US at the Olympics, Right?

​

 

[karne]

If Ilia comes blasting into Nationals with all these quads and lands them, then the sitting duck is Vincent. His body of work is the weakest and I'm sure it won't be forgotten that he is the one who has jeopardised the third spot. But of course, we will have to see how the season goes.

But also, Ilia will have to show a pattern of form through the season himself. And I am not fond of going straight from JGP to the Olympics. The Olympics as a Senior debut seems like far too much potential for career suicide.

 

[karne]

I'm going to add Mirai to this list as well. Remember 2014 when she was passed over for Ashley for the Olympic Team.

And that was the correct decision.

You know that saying "If It Aint Broke, Don't Fix It" That's how I feel about our top 3 Men going into the Olympics. Yaroslav was next and I think he's still not available for the US at the Olympics, Right?

Yaroslav will need to have a consistent season and skate well. As for availability, he will need his citizenship, which I believe he expects to come through in time.

 

[mrrice]

If Ilia comes blasting into Nationals with all these quads and lands them, then the sitting duck is Vincent. His body of work is the weakest and I'm sure it won't be forgotten that he is the one who has jeopardised the third spot. But of course, we will have to see how the season goes.

But also, Ilia will have to show a pattern of form through the season himself. And I am not fond of going straight from JGP to the Olympics. The Olympics as a Senior debut seems like far too much potential for career suicide.

I agree, if any of last years Medalists get the boot, I think it will be Vincent. Nathan and Jason are responsible for that 3rd spot and I'm sure the Fed will remember that. I'll have to wait and see how Ilia stacks up against Senior Men. At this point, I don't see his PCS being near last years top 3. Or 5, for that matter

 

[msteach3]

Team will be Nathan and Jason and Vincent. Ilia could be top six at Nats. Jimmy, Yaro, Maxim, Tomoki, Andrew, another junior will be top ten.
Notice I did not include Camden.

I wonder if Camden will even show up.

 

[mrrice]

I wonder if Camden will even show up.

This is an excellent question!!!! I always called him "Baby Max" because he reminded me so much of Max Arron. I'd love to see him skate great and prove himself at Nationals.

 

[TontoK]

Even if Ilia doesn't make the Olympic team (Which honestly is the most likely outcome considering how strong Vincent, Nathan, and Jason are), being at 4CC and (Key Word) POTENTIALLY snagging a medal would be a great boost for him.

If he keeps improving on spins, artistry, consistency, etc, 2026 shouldn't be much of a big issue too much (Barring serious injuries of course).

To put my earlier post in context... I think it is unlikely that Ilia will make the Olympic Team.

But, I also don't think it's impossible. The season has barely started, and we haven't even seen two of the Top Three.

I'm laughing a little bit about this discussion in general. I remember two weeks ago when Yaro was the one who was going to upset the applecart... and who knows? He still might. For that matter, three weeks ago, Simone Biles would leave Tokyo with five gold medals and a new vault named for her.

It's fun to play the prediction game about US Nationals and the Olympic Team, but the truth is we have no idea. Whatever the outcome, I hope the "winning" athletes make the selection obvious.

 

[msteach3]

This is an excellent question!!!! I always called him "Baby Max" because he reminded me so much of Max Arron. I'd love to see him skate great and prove himself at Nationals.

I love Camden's skating too and would love to see him skate to his potential at Nationals, but... his heart just doesn't seem to be in it.

 

[mrrice]

I love Camden's skating too and would love to see him skate to his potential at Nationals, but... his heart just doesn't seem to be in it.

That seems to be the difference between them. Max was like a machine, he always seemed to be working. Kind of like the Canadian Skater I called Patrick Chan Junior, Joseph Phan. I still hold out hope for both them.