2021-2022 U.S. Men's Figure Skating

[Tavi...]

I think Ilia has already said he’s aiming for an Olympic spot this season.

 

[mrrice]

I think Ilia has already said he’s aiming for an Olympic spot this season.

I think Ilia is the future. Still haven't seen Jason this season but, as much as I love Ilia, I don't see him beating Nathan or Vincent the way are looking right now. Skate Canada will be very telling.

 

[Lutzedge]

I think Ilia has already said he’s aiming for an Olympic spot this season.

That definitely makes sense. And he could very well potentially go.

 

[Lutzedge]

I think Ilia is the future. Still haven't seen Jason this season but, as much as I love Ilia, I don't see him beating Nathan or Vincent the way are looking right now. Skate Canada will be very telling.

Jason won the Finlandia Trophy. He didn't have the strongest skate, and had some uncalled roation problems. But he did win, and broke 90 in the short, and 170 in the Free.

 

[Lutzedge]

Jason's PCS is great as always, but he isn't always rotating his triples. If he doesn't skate solid in competitions, this might effect him some.

 

[el henry]

As a Jason fan, I have seen and heard "Oh this skater lands quads, oh that skater lands quads, oh Jason is 'in trouble' " for what, six years now . Last spring as I recall, all the attention was on Yaro. Yaro will score highly, Yaro will make the Olympics. Jason better look to his laurels. Same song, different skater.

Now I don't believe any skater should rest on their laurels. I know Jason doesn't. And Ilia is a brash young man with high goals, and that's what he should be.

But quads alone, and high scores in what used to be sectionals, regionals, always got them confused will not send Ilia to the Olys. Frankly, I believe Jason will need to beat himself to fail to make the team. But he has beaten himself (2018 Olys) so that can happen.

By the way, here is Jason, one of five winter athletes (not skaters, athletes) chosen to model the Ralph Lauren winter Olympic gear. Makes me nervous but I am a superstitious sort:

 

[mrrice]

This Silver Medal is a big deal for Jason. I hope this helps solidify his push for an Olympic Berth. Now that Vincent is back in form, I think last years World Team is still our best bet.

 

[moonvine]

Jason's PCS is great as always, but he isn't always rotating his triples. If he doesn't skate solid in competitions, this might effect him some.

He just got a silver at Skate Canada following his win at Finlandia. So in his past two International competitions he has finished first and second. And he got the second with a fall! What exactly do people want?

I saw Ilia’s skate. It was a really good junior ish skate. He’s been tearing up the JGP and that’s wonderful. But I know we’ve all seen our share of skaters who were wonderful on the JGP and even JGP gold medalists and junior world medalists who were never able to make the transition to seniors. I hope Ilia is able to successfully transition but if the US Fed is actually going by (Senior) Grand Prix results as they claim he has no track record. Vincent and Nathan both have golds on the GP, Nathan additionally has a bronze. Vincent and Jason both have a more than decent chance of medalling at their second GP assignments. There is no scenario I can think of that puts Ilia on the Olympic Team. Maybe if he beat Nathan at Nationals, which isn’t happening. Personally I’d put Jimmy Ma ahead of Ilia.

 

[kolyadafan2002]

He just got a silver at Skate Canada following his win at Finlandia. So in his past two International competitions he has finished first and second. And he got the second with a fall! What exactly do people want?

I saw Ilia’s skate. It was a really good junior ish skate. He’s been tearing up the JGP and that’s wonderful. But I know we’ve all seen our share of skaters who were wonderful on the JGP and even JGP gold medalists and junior world medalists who were never able to make the transition to seniors. I hope Ilia is able to successfully transition but if the US Fed is actually going by (Senior) Grand Prix results as they claim he has no track record. Vincent and Nathan both have golds on the GP, Nathan additionally has a bronze. Vincent and Jason both have a more than decent chance of medalling at their second GP assignments. There is no scenario I can think of that puts Ilia on the Olympic Team. Maybe if he beat Nathan at Nationals, which isn’t happening. Personally I’d put Jimmy Ma ahead of Ilia.

For me, neither ilia or Jason has good chance of scoring olympic medal. So they should send Jason - he earnt the spot where Vincent fell short, he's delivered solid performances throughout past two seasons, he's just got a medal at a grand prix. He's a fan favourite, and shows off part of the best aspect of the sport and makes US men look good.
If Ilia can retain his trajectory he could be future world champion. But I don't think he's ready to take the pressure of being an olympic/world competitor, and push him too soon and he will burn out.

I second the Nathan,Vincent,Jason selection choice.

 

[readernick]

Just to chime in here and agree with everyone else , in two GP events the US has earned 4 medals. The expected top three US men have all helped their cases. Ilia is a great hope for the future, but if the jumps go wrong then their isn't much left to hold his scores up. I do think USFS would be wise to send him to 4CC or Worlds this year to give him more international experience.

 

[Lutzedge]

He just got a silver at Skate Canada following his win at Finlandia. So in his past two International competitions he has finished first and second. And he got the second with a fall! What exactly do people want?

I saw Ilia’s skate. It was a really good junior ish skate. He’s been tearing up the JGP and that’s wonderful. But I know we’ve all seen our share of skaters who were wonderful on the JGP and even JGP gold medalists and junior world medalists who were never able to make the transition to seniors. I hope Ilia is able to successfully transition but if the US Fed is actually going by (Senior) Grand Prix results as they claim he has no track record. Vincent and Nathan both have golds on the GP, Nathan additionally has a bronze. Vincent and Jason both have a more than decent chance of medalling at their second GP assignments. There is no scenario I can think of that puts Ilia on the Olympic Team. Maybe if he beat Nathan at Nationals, which isn’t happening. Personally I’d put Jimmy Ma ahead of Ilia.

I said this right before Skate Canada. I didn't know that he would rotate better at there. I was just saying that he needs to rotate his triples. His quad is in no good shape, but he still does it in competition, only to get a usual downgrade or UR, when he could do a good triple. He quartered his 3A at Skate Canada in the SP, and he struggles at times on his rotation in combinations. I think he will do strong and grow more following his silver medal, and I am confident that he will make the Olympic team.

 

[Tavi...]

This Silver Medal is a big deal for Jason. I hope this helps solidify his push for an Olympic Berth. Now that Vincent is back in form, I think last years World Team is still our best bet.

I think the disconnect for some people- and the worry for some of his fans (guilty as charged ) is that even though he won gold at Finlandia and silver at Skate Canada, it was with less than stellar performances, lowish (compared to his personal best) scores, and a FS that doesn’t seem to have gelled yet.

I can’t begin to guess how USFS thinks, though!

 

[sheetz]

I said this right before Skate Canada. I didn't know that he would rotate better at there. I was just saying that he needs to rotate his triples. His quad is in no good shape, but he still does it in competition, only to get a usual downgrade or UR, when he could do a good triple.

Jason can't replace the 4S with a triple because he's already used up his allotment of triples. If he takes out the quad he'd have to replace it with a 2A. So from a strategic standpoint as long as he can stay on his feet it's probably better to keep the quad in his program.

 

[kan01]

I think the disconnect for some people- and the worry for some of his fans (guilty as charged ) is that even though he won gold at Finlandia and silver at Skate Canada, it was with less than stellar performances, lowish (compared to his personal best) scores, and a FS that doesn’t seem to have gelled yet.

I can’t begin to guess how USFS thinks, though!

Objectively speaking, if I'd be USFS I'd probably think, Wow, even with mistakes he's above the rest.
I mean, okay, he did not skate perfect, maybe his scores weren't satisfactory enough for USFS, but you see a skater who manages to get medal after medal with mistakes on top of lack of quad, big PCS every time, meanwhile his competitors even with big jumps are behind him. If this doesn't inspire reliability, I don't know what. Especially since it's only the start of the season, they know he can improve. When quads go downhill for others there you have Jason delivering and helping secure spots and the like. Even at his lowest he's still in the top 10 range World Champs level.

 

[TontoK]

I think the disconnect for some people- and the worry for some of his fans (guilty as charged ) is that even though he won gold at Finlandia and silver at Skate Canada, it was with less than stellar performances, lowish (compared to his personal best) scores, and a FS that doesn’t seem to have gelled yet.

I can’t begin to guess how USFS thinks, though!

I don't think you're wrong to worry.

His FS, so far, is cause for concern. His SP is solid, and with fewer jumping passes (really only two that are relevant) the base value advantage that some skaters may have is minimized... and it hasn't hurt his cause that his competition has generally turned in poor SPs.

But that FS... Despite the win at Finlandia, his FS was only 5th, and at Skate Canada it was 3rd against a lackluster field, and a case can be made that it should have scored less than Morisi.

I like Jason's skating, and I'm sure defenders will be on shortly to refute my concerns, but that doesn't matter. What does matter is that this segment has got to improve. If his FS catches up to the short in terms of quality, he should be fine, but to be a factor at the most important competitions, he can't afford the errors we've seen.

Concerning how USFS might think... set aside the fact that this is Jason, because people get too emotional about him - let's consider a random skater without the fanlove Jason has... So, anyway, USFS might have what it considers to be two legitimate medal contenders and one more spot to award. Do you give it to a third, soon to retire, veteran? Or do you give it to an up-and-comer who will be a Team USA mainstay for the next quad? If one skater finishes top three at US Nationals and the other doesn't, how does that impact the decision?

But, and this is important, there's a lot of skating to be done before Team selections are made.

 

[Lutzedge]

Jason can't replace the 4S with a triple because he's already used up his allotment of triples. If he takes out the quad he'd have to replace it with a 2A. So from a strategic standpoint as long as he can stay on his feet it's probably better to keep the quad in his program.

But if he downgrades his 4S, he would easily get more points with a 2A. His 4S as a downgrade would have a BV of 4.30 with negative GOE. His 2A would have a 3.30 BV with a positive GOE, assuming it's a good 2A (I hope he'd do a good 2A).

 

[kan01]

I hope he'd do a good 2A.

I'm sure he's good at 2A. Do you know what he's also good at? Winning gold and silver above figure skaters that we'd hope are good at 3A, 4T, 4S, etc, etc.

 

[mrrice]

I think the disconnect for some people- and the worry for some of his fans (guilty as charged ) is that even though he won gold at Finlandia and silver at Skate Canada, it was with less than stellar performances, lowish (compared to his personal best) scores, and a FS that doesn’t seem to have gelled yet.

I can’t begin to guess how USFS thinks, though!

To see Jason take the Silver with that Lineup of Men was a big deal. He certainly wasn't perfect but, none of the Men were. Jason Broke the 90's Mark with his SP and I think a huge part of that are his component numbers. If he falters in the tech department, in the US, he is untouchable in the component department. Assuming that Nathan and Vincent make the team, I can't think of a US Man who could beat a clean Jason at Nationals. He beat a pack of Russian and Canadian Men (In) Canada, that's a big deal.

 

[Lutzedge]

I'm sure he's good at 2A. Do you know what he's also good at? Winning gold and silver above figure skaters that we'd hope are good at 3A, 4T, 4S, etc, etc.

He is good at it. I was just making a joke. The quality of what he does, his jump landings, his smoothness, and everything about his PCS is just so good, that he can beat skaters who have the quads and difficult jumps, as you mentioned.

 

[Tavi...]

@kan01 I hope you’re right! Seriously, it’s actually really great that he’s started the season winning Finlandia and taking silver at Skate Canada, and depending on how he does in France, making the GPF is not out of the question. Still, there’s a heavy emphasis in the USFS Olympic selection procedures on scores, so the fact his scores this season are a bit stagnant and somewhat below his personal best is a little concerning.

@TontoK, I take your points and don’t at all disagree that he needs to improve, but at least in terms of selection for the Olympic Team, what really matters (unless the selection committee ignores the selection document ) are (1) the level, trend, and consistency of the skater’s scores at selected competitions; (2) where the skater’s scores fall relative to benchmark scores (ie top 3/5/10 at Worlds 2021); and (3) where the skater places at Nationals. So far this season, Jason has been consistently in line with the top 10 at Worlds benchmark. His total scores are well below his personal best (274+) and have been basically stagnant (262 Worlds, 262 Finlandia, 259+ SCI) mostly due to issues in the FS (his SP scores are trending upward). So it will be important for him to improve at his GP and any other competitions he does this fall. But for purposes of selection, whether he should have placed behind Morisi in the FS doesn’t really matter.

As to the “soon to retire veteran” versus the “up-and-comer” debate, at least theoretically that’s not really relevant, and to the extent it is, you could also consider that Jason brings something really unique to the sport, and Ilia is still pretty much a work in progress. But I digress.

What’s really relevant is that although people are excited by Ilia’s quads and scoring potential, it’s mostly due to his scores at two competitions that I don’t think even count for selection purposes - a club competition and the qualifying competition at Leesburg. What will count for purposes of selection is his performance on the JGP, at the JGPF, at his upcoming senior B, and at Nats. He’s got a lot of talent and has done well on the JGP, but right now he’s just barely reached the top 10 scoring benchmark (245) once. Depending on how he does the rest of the season and whether Jason falters, it’s possible he could be selected to the team. Time will tell.